Bitcoin has stalled a little bit at the $66,000 level, which is an area that has been important previously.
With that being said, I think that if we can break above that level, then it’s possible that we could go looking to the $73,000 level.
This is an area that has recently seen a lot of resistance, so it does make sense that would end up being a bit of a target.
If we can break above there it would obviously say a lot of things, but right now it is going to be a market that simply looks at that as a potential possibility.
Short-term pullbacks should be buying opportunities
Short-term pullbacks should continue to be buying opportunities with the 50-day EMA below and the $60,000 level both offering support. Ultimately, I don’t have any interest in trying to short this market and I think that pullbacks continue to be buying opportunities. In fact, that’s exactly how I’m going to trade the BTC/USD market because I do believe that we have a range that is very much intact.
The support level at the $60,000 level is crucial, but you should keep in mind that it extends down to the $57,000 level. If we can break out to the outside and clear the $73,000 level, then I think Bitcoin has much further to go. Quite frankly, I think it’s probably only a matter of time before all that happens anyways.
But at this point in time, I like the idea of looking for a little bit of value and taking advantage of it. In general, this is a market that I think continues to see a lot of volatility. But as long as people are worried about the Federal Reserve loosening monetary policy decisions, and of course, cutting back a little bit on quantitative tightening through its balance sheet, it does make a certain amount of sense that Bitcoin will continue to try to go higher. As long as that’s the case, I think that there will be plenty of people out there willing to get involved in bitcoin still.
To get LIVE ACCURATE 2-3 TRADES daily (Forex/Comex/Stocks) Telegram Financial Advisor
Buy the AUD/USD pair and set a take-profit at 0.6650.
Add a stop-loss at 0.6500.
Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bearish view
Sell the AUD/USD pair and set a take-profit at 0.6500.
Add a stop-loss at 0.6610.
The AUD/USD exchange rate remained under pressure as traders assessed the recent actions by the Federal Reserve and Australia’s central bank. The pair was trading at 0.6580 on Thursday, down from this week’s high of 0.6650.
Fed and RBA decisions
The AUD/USD pair has been in the spotlight after the recent actions by the Federal Reserve and the RBA. In its decision last week, the Fed decided to leave interest rates unchanged between 5.25% and 5.50%. It also hinted that it will cut rates later this year if inflation continues falling.
The Federal Reserve noted that inflation has remained stubbornly high above its 2% target while the economic growth is slowing. Recent data showed that the economy expanded by just 1.6% in Q1, a sharp reversal from Q4’s 3.2%. Economists expect the Fed to start cutting rates in Q4 of this year.
The Reserve Bank of Australia also left interest rates unchanged at 4.35% as it continued focusing on the country’s inflation, which has remained higher than expected. Analysts at several banks expect it to cut rates later this year. On the other hand, some of them believe that it will even hike rates later this year.
There will be no major economic data from Australia and the US on Thursday. The only report to watch from the US will be the initial and continuing jobless claims numbers. Economists polled by Reuters expect the report to reveal that the initial claims rose by 212k last week from the previous 208k.
Continuing claims are expected to come in at 1.79 million, higher than the prior week’s 1.7k. While these are important numbers, their impact on the AUD/USD pair will be limited.
AUD/USD technical analysis
The Australian dollar peaked at 0.6650 last week as the US dollar weakened after April’s nonfarm payrolls (NFP) data. That was a crucial price since it failed to move above that level on March 8th and April 9th. It was also the neckline of the inverse head and shoulders pattern.
It pulled back this week after the RBA interest rate decision and has found a support at 50-period moving average. It is also trading between the 38.2% and 50% Fibonacci Retracement level.
Therefore, the pair will likely bounce back as buyers target last Friday’s high of 0.6650. On the flip side, a drop below the support at 0.6540 will provide more downside.
To get LIVE ACCURATE 2-3 TRADES daily (Forex/Comex/Stocks) Telegram Financial Advisor
BTC/USD Forex Signal: Bitcoin Recovery Hits a Key Resistance
Bearish view
Sell the BTC/USD pair and set a take-profit at 60,000.
Add a stop-loss at 67,200.
Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bullish view
Set a buy-stop at 65,000 and a take-profit at 68,000.
Add a stop-loss at 61,000.
Bitcoin pulled back in the overnight session as the recent recovery faded. The BTC/USD pair has struggled to move above the crucial resistance level at 67,238 as investors watch macro factors and its on-chain metrics.
Post-halving calm continues
Bitcoin is in a state it has not been at in the past few months. It initially jumped sharply ahead of the spot Bitcoin ETF approval, which happened in January. These ETFs have lived to their hype after they have led to over $60 billion in inflows.
After the ETF approval, Bitcoin continued rallying in anticipation of the halving event, which reduces the block rewards offered to miners. Historically, Bitcoin has always done well before halving.
Now, the coin has moved into a no man’s land since there is no major catalyst that will push it higher. As such, traders will continue to watch its on-chain metrics and the performance of the spot ETFs.
They are also focusing on other external factors like corporate earnings, geopolitics, and the next actions of the Federal Reserve.
That explains why the next two days will be important for the price of Bitcoin since the US will release important economic numbers. The Bureau of Economic Analysis will release the first quarter GDP estimate that is expected to show that the economy expanded by 2.5%.
After this, the US will release the personal consumption expenditure (PCE) inflation report on Friday. This is an important number since it is the Fed’s favorite inflation number. Economists expect the figure to show that the headline and core PCE figure rose to 2.6% in March.
A stronger PCE figure will point to a hawkish Federal Reserve. As such, the bank could signal that it will hike rates again later this year. It could also hint that the current restrictive policy will continue. Bitcoin tends to underperform when the Fed is hawkish.
BTC/USD technical analysis
Bitcoin price has been in a slow bullish trend in the past few days but struggled to move above the crucial resistance point at $67,238. It has now slipped and crossed the crucial 50-period moving average.
The BTC/USD pair has pointed downwards while the Bull Bear Power indicator has moved below the neutral level. The pair has also moved below the descending trendline that connects the highest swings since March 14th.
Therefore, the pair will likely continue falling, with the next point to watch being the psychological point at 60,000.
EUR/USD Forex Signal: Chart Pattern Points to a Bearish Breakout
Bearish view
Sell the EUR/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.0650.
Add a stop-loss at 1.0755.
Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bullish view
Buy the EUR/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.0755.
Add a stop-loss at 1.0650.
The EUR/USD pair wavered on Thursday morning ahead of the crucial US GDP and inflation numbers. It also moved sideways after the strong economic numbers from Germany and the United States. The pair was trading at 1.0695, a few pips below this week’s high of 1.0712.
US GDP and inflation data
There are signs that the European economy is doing well. A report published on Tuesday revealed that business output rose to the highest point in months. The composite PMI rose to 51.4, which was higher than the median estimate of 50.8.
A separate report published on Wednesday revealed that the current assessment of the German economy rose from 88.1 in March to 88.9 in April. Business expectations rose to 89.9 while the business climate index rose to 89.4.
These numbers mean that the European economy is doing relatively well since inflation is also coming down. If the trend continues, the European Central Bank (ECB) will start cutting interest rates as soon as June this year.
The EUR/USD also moved sideways after the US released encouraging durable goods order numbers. A report showed that orders rose from 0.7% in February to 2.6% in March, higher than the expected 2.5%. Core durable orders rose from 0.1% to 0.2%.
The next important numbers that could impact the Federal Reserve will be the upcoming US GDP and Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) data.
The expectation is that the economy expanded in Q1, helped by consumer and government spending. Most analysts expect that the economy grew by 2.5% in Q1 after growing by 3.4% in Q4.
They also believe that Friday’s PCE report will be the most important one before the Fed makes its monetary policy decision next week. A higher-than-expected figure will push the Fed to deliver a hawkish statement, signaling that it may not cut rates this year.
EUR/USD technical analysis
The EUR/USD pair remained in a tight range ahead of the crucial GDP and PCE numbers. It was trading at 1.0695 on Thursday morning. It has moved slightly above the 50-period moving average and is sitting at its lowest swing on February 14th.
Most importantly, the pair has formed a bearish flag pattern, which is characterized by a long vertical line and an ascending rectangle. In most cases, this pattern is usually a sign of a continuation.
Therefore, the outlook for the pair is bearish, with the next point to watch being at 1.0650, the lower side of the flag pattern.
AUD/USD Forex Signal: More Upside Ahead of US PCE Data
Bullish view
Buy the AUD/USD pair and set a take-profit at 0.6555.
Add a stop-loss at 0.6450.
Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bearish view
Set a sell-stop at 0.6480 and a take-profit at 0.6400.
Add a stop-loss at 0.6550.
The AUD/USD pair retreated slightly as traders refocused on the upcoming US GDP and PCE economic numbers. The pair dropped from this week’s high of 0.6530 to a low of 0.6490.
US GDP and PCE data
The Australian dollar rallied and then pulled back after Australia published strong consumer inflation data. According to the statistics agency, the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) retreated from 4.1% in Q4’23 to 3.6%, which was higher than the median estimate of 3.4%.
The CPI rose from 0.6% to 1.0% on a QoQ basis. This figure was also higher than the expected 0.8%. The trimmed mean CPI rose by 4.0% while the weighted mean CPI rose to 4.4%.
These numbers mean that the country’s inflation remained higher than what the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) was expecting. They also mean that the country’s prices are not falling faster than expected.
Therefore, the RBA will likely maintain a hawkish sentiment in its upcoming meeting in May. Some analysts see the bank signaling that hikes will be possible if inflation remains this high.
Worse, there is an expectation that Australia, like the United States, will go through a period of reflation as energy prices rise.
Looking ahead, the remainder of the week will be important for the AUD/USD pair as the US will publish two important economic numbers. On Thursday, it will release the first estimate of the US GDP numbers.
Economists expect the data to show that the economy expanded by 2.5% in the first quarter after growing by 3.4% in Q1. That will mean that the economy has expanded by 2% for seven straight quarters.
The US will then release the PCE report, which is the Fed’s favorite inflation number. Economists expect the data to reveal that the headline PCE rose from 2.5% in February to 2.6% in March. The core PCE is expected to come in at 2.6%, higher than the Fed’s target of 2.0%.
AUD/USD technical analysis
The AUD/USD pair peaked at 0.6530 after the strong Australian inflation report and then pulled back to 0.6482. That was a crucial price since it was along the 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement level. It was also at the lowest swing on April 1st, meaning that it has formed a break and retest pattern.
The pair has moved above the 50-period Arnaud Legoux Moving Average (ALMA) while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has moved from the overbought level of 75 to 62. Also, it has formed a small inverse head and shoulders pattern.
Therefore, the outlook for the pair is extremely bullish, with the next point to watch being the 38.2% retracement point at 0.6555.
To get ACCURATE LIVE ACCURATE 2-3 TRADES (Forex/Comex/Stocks) Telegram Financial Advisor
Hello fellow traders. In this technical blog we’re going to take a quick look at the Elliott Wave charts of AUDJPY Forex pair, published in members area of the website. As our members know we have been favoring the long side in YEN pairs. Recently we got a pull back that has made a clear 3 waves pull back that found buyers right at the equal legs area. In the further text we are going to explain the Elliott Wave forecast
AUDJPY H1 Weekend Update 04.13.2024
AUDJPY ended cycle from the 96.8676 low and now correcting it. Current view suggests wave 4 red pull back can be unfolding as Elliott Wave Zig Zag Pattern. The Equal legs area is already reached at 98.799-98.460. We are aware that pull back can complete any moment. We don’t recommend selling the pair and expect further rally to resume from the buyers zone : 98.799-98.460.
AUDJPY H1 Weekend Update 04.15.2024
AUDJPY has given us a nice reaction from the Equal Legs zone as expected. The bounce reached and exceeded 50% Fibonacci retracement against the ((b)) high, so we consider wave 4 red completed at the 98.7 low. We anticipate a break of the 3 red peak to confirm that the next leg up is in progress. Alternatively, if the price breaks below the 98.7 low, the pair will open up the possibility for a 7-swing pattern toward 97.963-97.476 area. In that case, any long positions will be stopped out at Break Even, and we will look to buy the dips again at the next set of equal legs.
To get ACCURATE LIVE ACCURATE 2-3 TRADES (Forex/Comex/Stocks) Telegram Financial Advisor
The Australian dollar has lost ground after Australia’s CPI was lower than expected. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6578, down o.37%. The Aussie continues to struggle and has declined 3.4% in January.
Australia’s CPI eases to 3.4%
Australia’s inflation rate continues to decline, which will be sweet music to the ears of central bank policy makers. CPI for Q4 2023 fell to 4.1% y/y, down sharply from 5.4% in Q3 and below the market estimate of 4.3%. Inflation has decelerated for a third straight month and has fallen to its lowest since November 2021. The drop in inflation was felt across the economy and goods and services inflation eased. A key core CPI indicator, the trimmed mean, fell to 4.2% y/y, down sharply from 5.2% and just below the market estimate of 4.3%. The decline in inflation was also apparent on a quarterly basis. CPI fell from 1.2% to 0.6% in the fourth quarter and the trimmed-mean CPI dropped to 0.8%, down from 1.2% in the third quarter.
The inflation report is the final key release before the Reserve Bank of Australia meets on February 6. The RBA isn’t expected to start cutting rates until the second half of 2024 and it’s a virtual certainty that the RBA will hold rates next week at 4.35%. The RBA hasn’t signalled it will cut rates, but inflation has been moving in the right direction and the economy has been cooling down, with consumer spending falling and the labour market showing cracks.
This week’s retail sales report was a reminder that consumers are being squeezed by the cost of living crisis. December retail sales plunged 2.7% m/m, as Black Friday sales contributed to the November reading of 1.6%. Consumers did their Christmas shopping early and that led to a very soft reading in December.
AUD/USD Technical
AUD/USD is testing support at 0.6583. Next, there is support at 0.6544
There is resistance at 0.6613 and 0.6652
To get ACCURATE LIVE ACCURATE 2-3 TRADES (Forex/Comex/Stocks) Telegram Financial Advisor
EUR/USD wavers around intraday low after recently failing to bounce off 1.1832. US dollar bounces off lowest in one week as challenges to risk increase. Bulls need to overcome September 10 top to regain the controls.
GBP/USD
GBP/USD stands on slippery grounds after stepping back from the monthly high the previous day. The Cable’s reaction was mainly to the Times headlines suggesting the European Union’s (EU) push for the no-deal preparations.
USD/JPY
USD/JPY continues to find pressures on rallies and bears stay in control. An underbelly of risk-off is supporting the yen due to the rise in global covid cases. USD/JPY lost -0.3% overnight and fell to 103.65 before it ran to test the 104 figure ahead of the Tokyo open, albeit to no avail.
AUD/USD
AUD/USD’s bounce remains capped below 0.7300 despite the Australian employment positive surprise and record-high Chinese iron-ore prices. The Unemployment Rate beat estimates with 7%. Markets remain jittery amid persistent covid fears.
USD/CAD
USD/CAD extends pullback from one-week low inside short-term falling wedge. The pair confronts a joint of 200-hour EMA and a falling trend line from November 13, forming part of a short-term falling wedge. Although bullish MACD favors the pair’s strength, the key resistance confluence, followed by the 1.3100 threshold, can challenge the USD/CAD buyers.
XAU/USD
Gold traders remain nervous as two starkly different narratives on the coronavirus continue to play out. if the risk aversion deepens going forward, the safe-haven US dollar is likely to draw bids and weigh negatively on gold.
WTI CRUDE OIL
The WTI crude has carved out an expanding channel over the past two months. A close above that level would confirm a bullish breakout, validating the above-50 or bullish reading on the 14-day RSI and opening the doors to the August high of $43.78.
Rehana William |Financial Consultant _Forex_Gold Xauusd| Fund Manager 