What is the market OUTLOOK for STOCKS, COMMODITIES, AND FOREX: 28 April 2021?

Market Morning Outlook: Euro Has Dipped Below 1.21 And Trades Lower

STOCKS

Equities continue to trade mixed and are struggling to find a direction. Dow is stuck around 34000 and DAX hovers above 15200. Nikkei is stable within its 28000-31000 range. Shanghai can fall within its 3350-3500 range. Sensex and Nifty have come up towards the upper end of their 47000-49000 and 14150-14700 range and need to see if they can break this range on the upside or not today.

Dow (33984.93, +3.36, +0.01%) is stuck around 34000. We repeat that a strong follow-through rise above 34000 is necessarily needed to move up to 35000. Important support is at 33500. A break below it will reduce the chances of seeing 35000 on the upside. A subsequent fall below 33000 will then turn the outlook bearish for seeing 32000-31000 on the downside.

DAX (15249.27, −47.07, -0.31%) remains stable above 15200 and continues to lack momentum. We expect 15500 and 15700 to cap the upside from here. DAX is likely to break below 15000 and fall to 14500-14000 eventually in the coming weeks.

Shanghai (3448.02, +5.41, +0.16%) is getting support near 3425 and is attempting to bounce. This could be short-lived. We expect Shanghai to fall to the lower end of its 3350-3500 range in the coming days.

COMMODITIES

OPEC+ cancelled the meeting scheduled for today and have announced that it is to continue tapering of oil production with an increase of 350.000 b/d and an additional 350,000 b/d by Saudi Arabia. Crude prices have risen slightly but overall remain ranged within the narrow 68-64 region in Brent and 65-60 region in WTI. Gold and Silver have dipped slightly and may continue to trade lower for a few sessions before a sharp bounce is seen. Copper has declined sharply but while above 4.30/40, there is still scope for a bounce back towards 4.60 in the medium term.

Brent (66.33) and WTI (62.86) have risen slightly and could remain within the range of 70/68-64 and 67/65-60 respectively. While Brent holds above 65, it has scope for a rise to 70. Similarly, while WTI trades above 60, there is scope for a rise to 65-67.

Gold (1771.80 looks stable after falling for the last few sessions. It is important for the price to remain above 1760 to keep alive hopes for a bounce back to 1800-1820 in the medium term.

Silver (26.10) has dipped a bit and could test 26.0-25.75 before again attempting to bounce back.

Copper (4.4360) has dipped from levels seen yesterday and the fall could be a short corrective one before resuming the upward rally towards 4.60 in the medium term. Immediate support can be seen in the 4.40/30 region.

FOREX

Dollar Index looks stable while Euro may trade below 1.21 for sometime. EURJPY has risen sharply and if it manages to sustain above 131, we may look for fresh targets of 132-135 in the longer run. Pound and Aussie look bearish towards 1.38-1.37 and 0.77-0.7680 in the near term. USDCNY looks ranged within 6.48-6.50 for now while USDJPY has risen well and needs to sustain below 109 to fall back towards 107; else a rise to 109.75 cannot be ruled out. USDINR may hold within 74.40-74.80 today. A break below 74.40, if seen may take it down to 74.25. Resistances are seen at 74.85 and 75.10.

Dollar Index (90.99) holds stable and is likely to rise to 91.30/50 in the near term before again falling back towards 90.50 or lower. Note that while above 9050, we may expect a ranged movement between 90.50-91.50 for some time.

Euro (1.2078) has risen slightly but while below 1.21, there could be a short corrective dip towards 1.2048 before it attempts a bounce back to higher levels.

EURJPY (131.50) has finally rise breaking above the 129-131 range and signals initial signs of a sharp rally towards 132-135 in the longer run. Watch if the cross manages to sustain above 131 in order to continue moving up.

Dollar-Yen (108.88) has bounced back well. It should face rejection from 109 I order to resume its fall towards 107 or lower. Failure to face rejection from 109 will take it higher towards 109.75 again in the medium term.

Aussie (0.7739) has dipped and may continue to fall towards 0.77-0.7680 in the near term before bouncing back from there again. Immediate view is bearish.

Pound (1.3875) looks stable just now. It is likely to hold below 1.40 and may fall towards 1.38-1.37 eventually. View is bearish while below 1.40.

USDCNY (6.4874) is ranged just now. The pair has scope for a rise towards 6.50/52 while downside could be limited to 6.46 in the near term.

USDINR (74.6550) bounced back after testing 74.50 yesterday. While below 74.70, there is scope for a test of 74.40. Resistances are seen at 74.85 and 75.10 respectively. We may look for a range of 74.40-74.70/80 to hold for the day. Only a break below 74.40, if seen will trigger a fall towards 74.25. Watch price action at 74.40.

INTEREST RATES

The US Treasury yields have risen back sharply across tenors ahead of the US Federal Reserve meeting tonight. The crucial supports have held very well and keep the overall uptrend intact. It will have to be seen if the outcome of the Fed meeting provides a fresh trigger for the yields to move up further from here. The German Yields continue to trade stable and are keeping the bullish view intact. The 10Yr GoI has bounced but can face resistance ahead and fall-back again to keep the overall bearish view intact.

The US 2Yr (0.18%) Treasury yield remains stable while the 5Yr (0.88%), 10Yr (1.62%) and 30Yr (2.29%) have risen sharply. The support 1.5% (10Yr) and 2.2% (30Yr) seems to be holding well. As mentioned earlier, while above these supports, the uptrend will remain intact and the yields can rise back to 1.8% (10Yr) and 2.5% (30Yr) in the coming weeks. The danger of breaking these supports and falling to 1.2% (10Yr) and 2% (30Yr) that we were cautioning over the last few days stands reduced now.

The German 2Yr (-0.70%), 5Yr (-0.60), 10Yr (-0.25%) and the 30Yr (0.29%) yields continue to remain higher and stable. We retain our bullish view of seeing a break above -0.25% (10Yr) and 0.30% (30Yr) and a rise to -0.20%/-0.15% (10Yr) and 0.35% (30Yr) in the coming weeks. Thereafter the yields can fall back. To negate the above mentioned rise, the yields will have to fall below -0.35% (10Yr) and 0.20% (30Yr).

The 10Yr GoI (6.0544%) has bounced yesterday but might face resistance at 6.08% and fall back again. Our bearish view remains intact to test 6% initially and then 5.90% eventually in the coming weeks.

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What is the market OUTLOOK for STOCKS, COMMODITIES, AND FOREX: 23 April 2021?

Market Morning Briefing: Pound Has Dipped Well

STOCKS

Dow continues to oscillate around 34000 and needs to sustain above 33500 to keep alive the chances of seeing 35000 on the upside. DAX has bounced-back but has limited upside from here upto 14500-14700 from where it can see a sharp corrective fall. Nikkei can move up within its 28000-31000 range. Shanghai is hovering at the upper end of its 3350-3500 range and is likely to reverse lower and keep the range intact. Sensex and Nifty can consolidate in a range of 47000-49000 and 14150-14600/700 in the near-term before witnessing a deeper fall.

Dow (33815.90, −321.41, -0.94%) seems to be lacking to get a strong follow-through rise above 34000 giving some sign of weakness. It has to sustain above 33500 to keep alive the chances of seeing 35000. A break below 33500 will negate that chance and can drag the Dow to 33000 initially and then to 32000-31000 eventually.

DAX (15320.52, +124.55, +0.82%) has risen back above 15200 but has to rise past 15500 to see an extended rise to 15700. As we have been mentioning, 15500 and 15700 are important resistances that can cap the upside and take DAX lower to 14500-14000 in the coming weeks.

Shanghai (3481, +15.89, +0.46%) continues to hover below 3500. We expect 3500 to hold and Shanghai to fall towards 3400 to keep the 3350-3500 range intact. As mentioned yesterday, a strong break above 3500 is needed to negate the fall and turn the view bullish for a rise to 3600.

COMMODITIES

Short corrective movement seen in crude, Gold and Silver that could be temporary and hold for the next few sessions before again resuming the broader trend. Silver and Gold are bullish in the medium term towards 27.50 and 1820 while Crude could be restricted to $70 on the upside. Copper on the other hand can steadily rise towards 4.40.

Brent (65.61) has risen slightly. While above immediate support at 64, the price has bounced and could be headed towards $67-70 again in the medium term. WTI (61.73) on the other hand has also held above 60 and could rise towards $65 from here itself. Our expectation of a fall to 57 is not seen just now and can be negated while the price remains above $60.

Gold (1788.00) dipped slightly and could not break above 1800 yesterday. But while above 1760/80, we would continue to remain bullish for a rise to 1800-1820 in the near to medium term from where a small rejection could be possible before resuming the longer term rally.

Silver (26.23) has dipped slightly. If 27-27.50 holds just now we may expect a range of 25-27.50 to hold for the near term before any break out is seen that may take prices to further upside.

FOREX

Dollar Index remains stable while Euro may trade within 1.1980-1.21 region for sometime. Dollar Yen is bearish while below 108 and can steadily head towards 107-106. Pound and Aussie are bearish just now and need to bounce from supports near 1.38 and 0.7675 in order to move up again towards 1.40 and 0.78 in the medium term. USDCNY may rise towards 6.50/52 again while USDINR may continue to trade within 74.80-75.35 till a clear break out is seen on either side.

Dollar Index (91.217) could trade within 91.0-91.50 for the near term before breaking lower to eventually test 90.50-90.00 in the medium term. Broader view is bearish within which some interim corrections look possible.

Euro (1.2020) has dipped a bit. While below 1.21, small ranged trade within 1.1980-1.2100 could be possible. Thereafter a sharp rise above 1.21 looks more likely.

EURJPY (129.78) has not been able to break above 131 and while that holds as decent resistance, we may expect a fall to 129 or even 128 in the near to medium term. While above 128, we may keep possibilities of a rise back to 131 intact. A break below 128, if seen would make the cross bearish towards 125 in the longer run (say 1-2 months). Watch price action near 129-128 as the cross falls.

Dollar-Yen (107.95) is almost stable. While below 108, view is bearish towards 107-106 in the coming weeks.

Aussie (0.7719) has fallen further and could test 0.7675 on the downside before again bouncing back towards 0.78. Overall sideways range within 0.7675-0.78 could hold for the medium term.

Pound (1.3858) has dipped well. While above 1.38, Pound may rise back towards 1.40 in the medium term. Failure to sustain above 1.38 could indicate signs of reversal and force us to look for fresh lower targets.

USDCNY (6.4980) has bounced a bit today and while the rise holds and sustains, we may expect a steady rise towards 6.50/52 soon.

INTEREST RATES

The US Treasury yields continue to hover near their crucial supports which need to hold in order to keep the current uptrend intact and take them higher again. The price action in the coming days will need a close watch. The German yields remain stable and keep intact our bullish view of seeing a further rise from here. The European Central Bank (ECB) yesterday left the rates and the stimulus unchanged. However, the central bank will increase the pace of bond purchase under the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP) compared to the previous months. The 10Yr GoI is coming down in line with our expectation and remains bearish to fall further.

The US 2Yr (0.15%), 5Yr (0.80%), 10Yr (1.55%) and 30Yr (2.24%) remain lower and continue to hover near their crucial supports. We reiterate that 1.50% (10Yr) and 2.20% (30Yr) are crucial supports that will need a close watch. While these supports hold, the uptrend will remain intact and the yields can move up again towards 1.7%-1.8% (10Yr) and 2.4%-2.5% (30Yr). As mentioned yesterday, a strong break below 1.50% (10Yr) and 2.20% (30Yr) is needed to indicate a trend reversal and can drag the yields lower to 1.2% (10Yr) and 2% (30Yr).

The German 2Yr (-0.70%), 5Yr (-0.60), 10Yr (-0.25%) and the 30Yr (0.28%) remain stable. Our view remains bullish to see a break above -0.25% (10Yr) and 0.30% (30Yr) and see a rise to -0.20%/-0.15% (10Yr) and 0.35% (30Yr) in the coming weeks.

The 10Yr GoI (6.0502%) is coming down in line with our expectation. Our bearish view remains intact. The 10Yr GoI can break 6% and fall to 5.90% in the coming weeks. Resistance is now at 6.10%.

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What is the market OUTLOOK for STOCKS, COMMODITIES, AND FOREX: 15 April 2021?

Market Morning Briefing: Aussie Has Bounced Well As 0.7580 Holds Good

STOCKS

Equities remain mixed. Dow is stuck in between 33500 and 34000 while DAX between 15100 and 15300. They will have to break above 34000 (Dow) and 15300 (DAX) to move up further. Else a fall can be seen from here itself. Nikkei can fall within its 28000-31000 range. Shanghai is bearish to test 3350 immediately and 3300-3250 eventually. Sensex and Nifty have bounced but will have to rise past their immediate resistance to retain the sideways movement and also to avoid a deeper fall from here. Overall, continue to remain cautious on equities and not very bullish at the moment.

Dow (33730.89, +53.62, +0.16%) has come-off from the high of 33911.25. It can oscillate between 33500 and 34000 in the near-term. While below 34000, we expect the Dow to break 33500 and fall to 33000. As we have been mentioning over the last few days, a strong break below 33000 is needed to bring the Dow under pressure for a fall to 32000-31000 that we have been looking for.

DAX (15209.15, −25.21, -0.17%) is stuck in a narrow range of 15100-15300 over the last couple of weeks. Inability to get a strong follow-through rise above 15200 is decreasing the chances of seeing 15500-15700. A fall below 15000 from here will negate that chance completely and drag the DAX to 14600-14400 and even lower in the coming days.

Nikkei (29655.37, +34.38, +0.12%) is still stuck in between 29500 and 30000. The bias is negative to see a break below 29500 and a fall to 28500-28000 in the coming days. The broader range of 28000-30500/31000 remains intact and the index can fall within this range now.

Shanghai (3382.13, −34.59, -1.01%) has declined below 3400 and is keeping our bearish view of seeing 3350 on the downside. As mentioned earlier, a break below 3350 can drag Shanghai towards 3300-3250 and even 3200 over the medium-term. The price action near 3350 will need close watch in the coming sessions.

COMMODITIES

Crude prices have risen well boosted by a US crude inventory drop and an upward revision of demand forecast by the IEA. Brent may rise towards upper resistance near 68-70 while WTI could be headed towards 65-67 levels. Gold is trading within 1720-1760 region and needs to break on either side to give further directional clarity. Silver may rise towards 26-27 while above 25. Copper is bullish to 4.20/30 while above 4.0.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has revised its demand forecast upwards, leading to a sharp rise in crude prices. The EIA had earlier showed a drop of 5.9mln barrels in US crude inventories as compared to analyst expectations of 3.5mln barrels. In addition, the American Petroleum Institute (API) also reported on Tuesday that the crude oil stockpiles dropped in the US by 3.6mln barrels last week.
All the above data released together boosted a rise in crude prices. Brent (66.56) rose sharply to trade above 66 as expected and may now test 68-70 which is a medium term resistance. A fall from 68-70 could be seen over the next few sessions. Immediate view is bullish.

WTI (63.08) can also rise towards 65-67 in the near term. Immediate view is bullish.

Gold (1736.20) is holding within the 1720-1760 region and while that holds, it would be difficult to project further direction from here. A break above 1760 is necessarily needed for an upside trigger, else a fall below 1720 could drag the price down to 1700-1680 (less .likely) once again within an overall longer term uptrend. In the longer run, we look for a rise to 1800-1820 which could then initiate further rally.

Silver (25.47) finds difficult to remain below 25 for long and has bounced back possibly indicating a rise towards 26-27 in the medium term. Such a rise if seen could also pull up Gold prices.

FOREX

Dollar Index has fallen sharply taking up Euro and Yen along. Euro may head towards 1.20+ while USDJPY may fall to 108.50/30 if Dollar Index heads lower to test 91.50 or lower. EURJPY may trade sideways while Aussie and Pound may see restricted upmove and could soon fall in the near to medium term. USDCNY may dip to 6.52 before bouncing higher. USDINR may test 75.20 today, a break above which could open up scope for testing 75.40/50; else a pull back to 74.80/60 may be possible.

Dollar Index (91.67) has broken below 92 clearly and needs to sustain the fall in order to move down slowly towards 91.50-90.50 in the medium term. This could be bullish for Euro (1.1973) which has also sharply moved up above 1.19 and is headed to 1.20. A break in the Dollar Index below 91.50 may take Euro above 1.20 soon. Watch price action near 91.50 on Dollar Index and near 1.20 on Euro.

EURJPY (130.40) is trading sideways and could continue to trade below 131 for now. A break above 131 is expected soon that may trigger a rise towards 135 in the medium to long term.

Dollar-Yen (108.91) has clearly broken below 109 in line with the fall in Dollar Index. While the Dollar Index sustains below 92, Dollar Yen is also likely to be bearish towards 108.50/30.

Aussie (0.7716) has bounced well as 0.7580 holds good. A test of 0.78 looks possible which if holds could keep the pair within 0.78-0.77 for sometime. Only a break above 0.78 would make Aussie further bullish,

Pound (1.3774) has been rising well but watch out resistance near 1.38 which if holds could push back the currency down to 1.37 or lower in the longer run.

USDCNY (6.5380) has dipped and may test 6.52 before rising back towards 6.54/58 again in the medium term.

INTEREST RATES

The US Treasury yields remain stable above their key support levels. We reiterate that unless the yields fall below their supports, the trend will continue to remain up and a fresh rally in the coming weeks cannot be ruled out. The German yields have moved up towards the upper end of their current sideways consolidation. The bias is bullish to see an upside breakout of this range and rise in the coming days. The 10Yr GoI can consolidate around 6% for some time before resuming the downtrend towards 5.9%.

The US 2Yr (0.16%), 5Yr (0.86%), 10Yr (1.64%) and 30Yr (2.32%) Treasury yields continues to trade stable above the key support levels of 1.55%-1.50% (10Yr) and 2.25%-2.20% (30Yr). We reiterate that while above these supports the trend is still up and the yields have potential to target 1.9%-2% (10Yr) and 2.9%-3% (30Yr) on the upside over the medium-term. A strong break below 1.55% (10Yr) and 2.2% (30Yr) is necessarily needed to signal a trend reversal.

The German 2Yr (-0.70%), 5Yr (-0.61), 10Yr (-0.26%) and the 30Yr (0.29%) have moved up sharply and are poised near the upper end of their -0.35/-0.25 (10Yr) and 0.2%-0.3% (30Yr) range. Our view remains the same. The yields can break their range on the upside and move up to -0.20%/-0.15% (10Yr) and 0.35% (30Yr) can be seen over the medium-term. As mentioned earlier, a strong break below -0.40% (10Yr) and 0.20% (30Yr) is needed to turn the outlook bearish.

The 10Yr GoI (6.0114%) remains stable around 6%. The bearish view remains intact. However, a consolidation around 6% or a corrective bounce to 6.06%-6.08% is possible before the fall to 5.9% happens.

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Morning Market Outlook: STOCKS, COMMODITIES, AND FOREX ANALYSIS (12 April 2021)

Pound Has Fallen Below 1.37

STOCKS

Asians are trading weak failing to take cues from the rise in the Dow on Friday. Dow has risen past 33550 contrary to our expectation and can test 34000 while this break sustains. The expected corrective fall is getting delayed further. DAX keeps alive the chances of seeing 15500-15700 on the upside before seeing a reversal. Nikkei and Shanghai can fall within their sideways range. Sensex and Nifty can see a sharp fall today following the weakness in SGX-Nifty which is trading down over 1.5%.

Dow (33800.60, +297.03, +0.89%) has risen past 33550 contrary to our expectation. While this break sustains a test of 34000 is possible in the near-term. Dow will now have to fall below 33000 in order to come under pressure and bring into the picture of the fall to 32000-31000 that we have been expecting.

DAX (15234.16, +31.48, +0.21%) continues to oscillate around 15200. The view of seeing 15500-15700 on the upside remains intact before we see a strong reversal. We reiterate that DAX has to fall below 15000 to become bearish for a fall to 14600-14400 and even lower levels.

Nikkei (29631.80, −136.26, -0.46%) remains below 30000 and continues to lack strength to rise past 30000 from here. The 28000-30500/31000 range remains intact and Nikkei can fall towards the lower end of the range now.

Shanghai (3427.46, −23.22, -0.67%) is heading down as expected towards 3400 and can extend the fall to 3350. The broader picture remains weak to see an extended fall to 3300-3250 and even 3200 in the coming days.

COMMODITIES

Most commodities trade in a ranged manner but we would keep a close watch on key supports and resistances that could shape up the future course of movement. Brent and WTI could trade within the narrow 62-64 and 61-57 range respectively while Copper and Silver look bullish while above 4.0-3.9 and 25 respectively. Gold has dipped from 1760. Unless a sustained break above 1760 is seen, we may look for ranged movement to continue for some more time within an overall long term uptrend.

Brent (63.05) and WTI (59.34) continues to trade within a narrow sideways range. WTI could trade within 61-57 in the very near term while Brent could be stuck in the 62-64 region. However, we may expect a breakout on either side of the range possibly by the end of this week.

Gold (1744.10) has not been able to break above 1760 and has instead fallen from there. We may expect a ranged trade while below 1760 for a few sessions. In the longer term, overall trend is up. A sustained break above 1760 would be an initial signal for medium to long term bullishness.

Silver (25.33) needs to sustain above 25 in order to rise towards 26-27 in the medium term. Failure to sustain above 25 could take the pair down to 24-23 on the downside. Bullish sentiment prevails while the price trades above 25.

FOREX

Dollar Index trades above 92 and may sustain to trade higher for a few sessions. Euro is finding difficult to break and sustain above 1.19 but needs support of a weak Dollar Index below 92 for it to move up. Dollar Yen may test 110 before coming off from there. Pound and Aussie look bearish for the near term. USDCNY has risen and may continue to rise towards 6.58/60. USDINR also looks bullish while above 74.25 and may test 75.15/20 soon.

Dollar Index (92.274) is holding above 92 just now. A test of 92.75/80 looks possible on the upside before a sharp dip back to 92 is seen. Only a break below if holds could take the index further low towards 91.50-90.50 in the longer run. For now watch price action near 92.

Euro (1.1886) has dipped below 1.19 again after seeing a brief rise last week to 1.1927. A rise above 1.19 needs to sustain in order to move up towards 1.20 in the medium term.

EURJPY (130.21) has risen a bit but overall could trade within 131-129.50 for the near term.

Dollar-Yen (109.54) may test 110 before declining back from there again. Only a abreak above 110 would again establish a bullish movement. Watch price action near 110.

Aussie (0.7600) is trading near crucial levels and a break below 0.76 could take it down further to 0.7550. Immediate view is likely to be bearish.

Pound (1.3683) has fallen below 1.37 and may either bounce back from 1.3670/50 or continue to fall towards 1.36 in the near to medium term. View is bearish while below 1.37.

USDCNY (6.5569) has risen slightly but may continue to rise towards 6.58/60 in the near term. View is bullish.

USDINR (74.74) has moved up sharply last week and we cannot negate a test of 75.15/20 before a fall is seen from there towards 74.60/40 in the medium term.

INTEREST RATES

The US Treasury yields have bounced-back on Friday. The yields can consolidate sideways within their overall uptrend. A strong break below their immediate supports is needed to turn the outlook bearish. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data release tomorrow will need a close watch. The German yields are also consolidating within their uptrend. We expect the uptrend to remain intact and the yields can move up further before a reversal is seen. The 10Yr GoI remains bearish but a corrective bounce is possible before a further fall is seen from here.

The US 2Yr (0.16%), 5Yr (0.87%), 10Yr (1.66%) and 30Yr (2.32%) Treasury yields have bounced-back across tenors. 1.60%-1.55% (10Yr) and 2.25%-2.20% (30Yr) are important supports above which the yields are consolidating now. We reiterate that a strong break below 1.55% (10Yr) and 2.2% (30Yr) is needed to signal a trend reversal. Until then the trend will remain up and the chances of a fresh rise to 2% (10Yr) and 2.9%-3% (30Yr) cannot be ruled out over the medium-term.

The German 2Yr (-0.71%), 5Yr (-0.64), 10Yr (-0.30%) and the 30Yr (0.24%) have bounced-back within their current sideways consolidation. -0.35/-0.25 (10Yr) and 0.2%-0.3% (30Yr) are the range which we can expect to break on the upside and see a rise to -0.20%/-0.15% (10Yr) and 0.35% (30Yr) over the medium-term. The 10Yr has to fall below -0.40% and the 30Yr below 0.20% in order to negate the bullish view and turn bearish.

A test of 6% on the 10Yr GoI (6.0147%) was seen on Friday as expected. The yield has bounced-back above 6% after making a low of 5.9591% on Friday. The bearish view of seeing 5.90% on the downside remains intact. However, if the 10Yr GoI breaks above 6.02% from here, then a corrective bounce to 6.06%-6.08% cannot be ruled out before the above mentioned fall happens.

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Morning Market Outlook: STOCKS, COMMODITIES, AND FOREX ANALYSIS (01 APRIL 2021)

Aussie Looks Stable

STOCKS

Dow is struggling to get a strong follow-through rise above 33000 and looks vulnerable for a fall from here itself without seeing an extended rise. It will have to be seen how the market reacts to the proposed increase in the US corporate tax announced along with the $2 trillion infrastructure recovery package unveiled yesterday. DAX is at the key resistance level of 15000 and is expected to reverse lower from here. Nikkei can move up within its sideways range. Shanghai is at its upper end of its range and needs to be seen if it can break it on the upside. Sensex and Nifty have come-off from their resistances as expected and can fall in the coming days as expected. Any bounce is likely to be capped at 50000-50250 (Sensex) and 14900 (Nifty).

Dow (32981.55, −85.41, -0.26%) is not getting a strong follow-through rise above 33000. A further fall from here will reduce the chances of seeing the extended rise to 33450-33500 that we had been mentioning over the last few days. In turn the expected fall to 32000-31000 can happen from here itself.

DAX (15008.34, −0.27, -0.002%) remained stable around 15000 yesterday. We retain our view of seeing a corrective fall from here to 14400 initially and then to 14000-13800 eventually in the coming weeks. As mentioned yesterday, the above mentioned fall will get negated if DAX breaks above 15050 decisively in which case we may have to allow for an extended rise to 15500-15700.

Nikkei (29531.88, +353.08, +1.21%) has risen back above 29500 and needs to see if it can sustain. We reiterate that Nikkei can remain sideways between 28000 and 30500/31000 for some time. Within this range while above 29000, a move towards the upper end of the range is possible in the near-term.

Shanghai (3456.65 +14.74, +0.43%) is hovering at the upper end of its 3330-3470 range. A pull-back from here will keep the sideways range intact. If Shanghai manages to breach 3470, a rise to 3500 is possible. However, a strong follow-through rise past 3500 is necessarily needed to completely negate the bearish view of seeing 3250-3200 on the downside.

Sensex (49509.15, −627.43, -1.25%) has come-off sharply yesterday failing to sustain above 50000. This keeps our bearish view of seeing a fall to 48000-47000 on the downside. The chances of the fall extending even upto 46000 cannot be ruled out. But thereafter we can expect a fresh rally.

The resistance at 14900 has held very well as expected and Nifty (14690.70, −154.40, -1.04%) has come-off sharply yesterday. A further fall to 14400-14200 is possible on a break below 14400. Our broader bearish view of seeing 14000-13800 remains intact. The fall can extend even up to 13600 before we get a strong bounce.

COMMODITIES

Commodities see some corrective upmoves today. Crude prices have risen a bit but overall look ranged for the near term within 65-60 on Brent and 57-63 on WTI. Gold ahs bounced well from support at 1680/70 and may test 1740/60 on the upside. Silver has bounced too but the rise looks corrective as it may fall back to 23-22 in the medium term. Copper is stable just now and may test 3.90/80 before bouncing back from there.

Brent (62.98) and WTI (59.43) look ranged for now within 65-60 and 57-63 respectively. Only a break on either side of the range would give more clarity on further direction.

Gold (1710.10) managed to bounce back from important supports near 1680/70 and could soon rise towards1740-1760 in the medium term. For bullish sentiment to establish, we need a break above 1760. Immediate view is bullish.

Silver (24.36) has bounced back from 23.74 itself but there is scope for a test of 22 on the downside in the medium term while below 25. Watch for a possible corrective upmove followed by another decline towards 22.

Copper (3.9830) has bounced a bit but while below 4, we may expect a test of 3.90-3.80 before a sharp bounce is seen.

FOREX

Dollar Index has dipped slightly but while above 93, we do not negate chances of a possible test of 94.50 on the upside. Euro has bounced a bit but we need to see if the rise sustains in the coming sessions. EURJPY is bullish towards 131. Aussie and Pound looks stable. USDCNY may see a corrective dip towards 6.54/55 before rising back again. Dollar Yen may dip too but the fall could be short lived. USDINR is closed for rest of the sessions this week. We may expect a fall towards support near 72.80 in the coming week.

Dollar Index (93.22) has dipped well but we would keep a close watch to see any signs of rising back from 93. We do not negate a rise to 94.50 while the index trades above 93.

Euro (1.1723) has bounced from 1.17 and while the rise sustains we may expect a rise to 1.1760-1.18 in the near term. But we would keep a close watch to see if the rise is short lived and the currency starts to fall back tomorrow or not. While below 1.18, we do not negate a possible fall to 1.16 in the longer run.

EURJPY (129.71) is stable and could re-test resistance near 131. Immediate view is bullish.

Dollar-Yen (110.62) has dipped a bit after a test of 110.97 yesterday. The fall could be corrective and could bounce back from 110.50/30 to resume its uptrend. While above 109.50, view is bullish for Dollar Yen towards eventual rise to 111.75-112.

Aussie (0.7575) looks stable. Near term could be ranged within 0.7545-0.7660.

Pound (1.3781) looks bearish while below 1.3850 and could fall towards 1.37-1.36 in the medium term.

USDCNY (6.5650) is ranged yesterday and we reiterate from yesterdays comments of seeing a short lived corrective dip to 6.54/55 before again resuming the uptrend. Immediate view is likely to be ranged within 6.54-6.58.

USDINR (73.11) fell sharply yesterday from 73.5850 to test 73.05 and close near the lower end of the session range. Note that 72.80 is now a crucial support which needs to hold to keep the upward momentum intact. Today and tomorrow the currency is closed. Trade for USDINR is to resume on Monday (5th April)

INTEREST RATES

The US Treasury yields have inched up. The yields have room to move further up from here and test their long-term resistances before reversing lower sharply. German yields sustain higher and are keeping our bullish view intact. The 10Yr GoI is moving up towards the upper end of its range. We expect the range to remain intact for some time and to be broken on the downside eventually going forward.

The US 2Yr (0.16%), 5Yr (0.94%), 10Yr (1.75%) and 30Yr (2.42%) Treasury yields have inched up slightly. View remains bullish for now. 1.8% on 10Yr and 2.5%-2.6% on the 30Yr are important near-term resistances. A break above these resistances can take the yields up to 2% (10Yr) and 2.9%-3% (30Yr) in the coming weeks. Thereafter a fresh fall is possible. The yields have to fall below 1.5% (10Yr) and 2.2% (30Yr) to indicate a reversal and negate the rise to 2% (10Yr) and 3% (30Yr).

The German 2Yr (-0.70%), 5Yr (-0.63), 10Yr (-0.29%) and the 30Yr (0.25%) remain stable. While above -0.40% (10Yr) and 0.20% (30Yr) our bullish view is intact of seeing -0.20%/-0.15% (10Yr) and 0.35% (30Yr) on the upside. A strong fall below -0.40% (10Yr) and 0.20% (30Yr) is needed to turn bearish and negate the above mentioned rise.

The 10Yr GoI (6.1768%) is moving up within the 6.10%-6.20% range. A test of 6.20% is likely in the coming sessions and a reversal thereafter will keep the range intact. We retain our view of seeing a break eventually below 6.10% and a fall to 6%-5.9% over the medium-term. But, if the GoI breaks above 6.20%, an extended rise to 6.24%-6.26% is possible and the expected fall below 6.10% will get delayed.

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Morning Market Outlook: STOCKS, COMMODITIES, AND FOREX ANALYSIS (26 MARCH 2021)

Aussie Has Bounced Well From 0.7563

STOCKS

Global equities are showing signs of a sideways consolidation for some time rather than running into a sharp correction immediately which we have been expecting. The expected correction may happen after this sideways consolidation. We will have to wait and see. Dow may consolidate between 32000 and 33000/33100. Nikkei can trade sideways between 28000 and 31000 while Shanghai can be in the range of 3330-3470. Sensex and Nifty might bounce today following the other markets. However, they remain relatively weaker among the low for now with room for a further fall eventually. Overall, we continue to remain cautious on the equities.

Dow (32619.48, +199.42, +0.62%) tested 32000 and has risen back sharply. A sideways consolidation between 32000 and 33000/33100 is a possibility for some time before the expected break below 32000 and a fall to 31000 is seen. We continue to remain cautious and expect the upside to be capped at 33000-33100.

DAX (14621.36, +10.97, +0.075%) has risen back well from the day’s low of 14422.65. This keeps alive the chances of seeing 14900-15000 on the upside before the expected reversal is seen. From a big picture, we see the upside to be capped at 14900-15000 and a corrective fall to 14000-13800 can be seen eventually.

Nikkei (29151.80, +421.92, +1.47%) has risen further today and is trading above 29000. While this bounce holds, a further rise to 30000 and a sideways consolidation between 28000 and 30500/31000 cannot be ruled out. A fall below 28000 is needed to confirm the double top and bring in strong bearishness for a fall to 27000-26000 that we have been expecting. We will have to wait and watch.

Shanghai (3390.76, +27.17, +0.81%) is getting support at 3350. The broader view is bearish to see 3250-3200 on the downside. But a sideways consolidation between 3350/3330 and 3450/3470 can be seen for some time before the above mentioned fall happens.

As expected, Sensex (48440.12, −740.19, -1.51%) and Nifty (14324.90, -224.50, -1.54%) have broken below their crucial supports of 49000 and 14400 respectively. Though the indices may move up taking cues from the bounce in global equities, the upside could be capped. 50000 on Sensex and 14650/14800-14900 on Nifty are important resistances. We retain our broader bearish view of seeing 48000-47000 (Sensex) and 14200-14000 (Nifty) on the downside. The chances of this fall extending eventually to 46000 (Sensex) and 13800 (Nifty) cannot be ruled out.

COMMODITIES

Crude prices may remain in a range for some time before falling sharply while Gold and Silver look bearish for the near term. A fall in Gold below 1720 and below 25 in Silver could trigger a fall towards 1700 and 24 respectively. Copper may break below 4.00 to head towards 3.80 before a bounce is seen from there.

Brent (62.30) and WTI (59.03) have risen slightly but could be ranged within 60-66 and 57-62levels respectively. Thereafter, the prices can fall sharply towards 55-52 in the longer run.

Gold (1724.50) has dipped to test the lower end of the 1720-1760 range that we have been mentioning over the past couple of days. If the price sustains above 1720, we may expect a rise to 1760 over the coming days else a fall to 1700 or lower cannot be negated. Watch price action near 1720 today to see where the price closes for the week.

Silver (25.16) is bearish towards 25-24 while below near term resistance at 27.

Copper (4.0015) tested a low of 3.9525 before closing yesterday at 3.978, slightly below 4.00. While the price attempts to fall again today it would be important too see if it closes for the week above 4.00 or lower. A close below 4 would indicate a possible fall towards 3.80 in the coming week. Immediate view is bearish.

FOREX

Dollar Index trades higher that has dragged down Euro to levels below 1.18. Watch price action in the near term where the Dollar index has to remain below 93 else we may expect more weakness in global currencies over the coming 1-2 weeks. Aussie and Pound may rise a bit from current levels while USDJPY may rise to 109.50-110 before falling from there. USDCNY has risen sharply and could dip from 6.5575. USDINR may remain ranged within 72.40/50-72.70/80.

Dollar Index (92.77) tested 92.917 yesterday but has dipped from there. While below immediate resistance at 93, the index may fall back towards 92 or lower in the coming session. Only a break above 93, if seen and sustains, we may expect a further rise to test 94. While below 93 a fall over the next few sessions look more likely.

Euro (1.1779) has broken below 1.18 and cannot rule out a test of 1.1750-1.1700 on the downside before a reversal is seen. View is bearish while below 1.18.

EURJPY (128.68) has bounced from 128.29 tested yesterday. A break above 129 is needed to take the cross higher towards 129.50-129.75 again in the near term. Else we ay expect resumption of downtrend while below 129.0-129.5.

Dollar-Yen (109.21) has started to rise again and a break above 109.40 if seen and sustained could take it higher towards 110 on the upside before a dip from there is seen.

Aussie (0.7605) has bounced well from 0.7563 and if that sustains, we may expect a test of 0.7650-0.77 in the medium term. While above 0.76, view is bullish and can negate chances of testing 0.75/74 on the downside. Watch price action to see if 0.76 holds.

Pound (1.3759) has bounced from 1.3670 and while that holds, a rise to 1.38-1.3850 cannot be negated. View is bullish while above 1.3670.

USDCNY (6.5418) has risen sharply to our expected 6.54/55 levels and a break above 6.55-6.5575 would indicate sharp bullishness taking the pair higher towards 6.60 in the coming 1-2 weeks. Look for a dip from 6.55-6.5575 levels in the near term.

USDINR (72.6250) was almost stable yesterday between 72.6950-72.57. A break above 72.70 is needed to test upper resistance near 72.80, else we will have to allow for a range of 72.40-72.70 to hold today. Note that 72.80 is an immediate resistance which could hold on the first testing and produce a dip back towards 72.50/40. Watch price action near 72.70/80 on a rise today. On the alternative, a break below 72.40 would negate chances of a rise to 72.80 and bring in lower levels of 72.20/10 into the picture.

INTEREST RATES

The US Treasury yields are managing to hold higher. The trend is still up and there is room for the yields to move up further from current levels before a strong reversal is seen. The German yields are at their crucial support. Inability to see a strong rise from current levels will negate our earlier bullish view and in turn can drag the yields lower. The 10Yr GoI can remain sideways for some time before seeing a much deeper fall below 6.10%.

The US 2Yr (0.13%), 5Yr (0.82%) and the 10Yr (1.63%) Treasury yields remain stable while the 30Yr (2.36%) has inched slightly higher. Our view remains the same. While above 1.60%-1.50% (10Yr) and 2.20% (30Yr) There is room for the yields to move up further towards 1.8%-2% (10Yr) and 2.5%-2.6% (30Yr) in the coming weeks before a strong reversal is seen. A fall below 1.60%-1.50% (10Yr) and 2.20% (30Yr) is needed to indicate a top in place.

The German 2Yr (-0.73%), 5Yr (-0.70, 10Yr (-0.39%) and the 30Yr (0.17%) have dipped further. The 30Yr has dipped below the key support level of 0.20%. While this break sustains our earlier bullish view of seeing 0.35% on the upside will go wrong. The 10Yr is hovering just above the key support level of -0.40%. It will have to hold this support to keep our view of seeing a rise to -0.20%/-0.15% alive. The price action and the closing for today will be very crucial in deciding the path of move going forward.

The 10Yr GoI (6.1311%) rose to 6.1733% and has come-off from there. The broader view remains bearish to break 6.10% and fall to 6%-5.9% in the coming weeks. However, a sideways consolidation between 6.10%-6.20% cannot be ruled out before the above mentioned fall happens.

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Morning Market Outlook: STOCKS, COMMODITIES, AND FOREX ANALYSIS (23 MARCH 2021)

Pound Continues To Trade Within 1.38-1.40

STOCKS

Dow sustains above 32500 but needs to rise past 33100 to avoid a corrective fall from here. DAX keeps alive the chances of testing 14900-15000 before reversing lower. Nikkei and Shanghai look vulnerable for a fall. But they can consolidate sideways for some time before the expected fall happens. Sensex and Nifty have key resistances ahead which have to be broken to move up further from here and remain sideways for some more time. Overall, equities look likely to move into a sideways consolidation at higher levels before a sharp correction happens.

Dow (32731.20, +103.23, +0.32%) is managing to hold above 32500. Our view remains the same. 33100 is a crucial level which has to be broken to become bullish for a rise to 34000. While below 33100, the bias is bearish to see a corrective fall to 32000-31000. A break below 32500 can trigger this fall.

DAX (14657.21, +36.21, +0.25%) continues to hover higher. As mentioned yesterday, the chances of seeing 14900-15000 are still alive. However, we expect the upside to be capped at 15000. A sharp corrective fall to 14000-13800 is possible from the 14900-15000 resistance region.

Nikkei (29242.59, +68.44, +0.23%) can come under pressure for a fall to 28000-27000 on a strong break below 29000 now. While it manages to sustain above 29000, a sideways consolidation between 29000 and 30000/31000 is possible before the above mentioned fall to 28000-27000 happens.

Shanghai (3414.10, −29.34, -0.85%) looks vulnerable for a fall to 3250-3200. A break below 3400 can trigger this fall. However, a sideways consolidation between 3400-3460 or 3400-3500 is a possibility before the fall is seen.

Sensex (49771.29, −86.95, -0.17%)andNifty (14744, +186.15, +1.28%) remained stable yesterday. It will have to be seen if they can rise past 50000 (Sensex) and 14900 (Nifty) from here. Such a rise will keep the sideways consolidation intact and pave way for 51000-52000 (Sensex) and 15200-15400 (Nifty) in the coming days. However, from a broader picture we remain bearish to see a fall to 48000-47000 (Sensex) and 14200-14000 (Nifty) eventually.

COMMODITIES

Most metals look ranged for the near term with immediate resistances and supports intact. Watch for a break above 4.15 on Copper which would be a bullish confirmation; else a fall to 3.90 looks more likely. Crude prices have risen from immediate lows seen over the last couple of sessions but we may look for a re-test of those supports in the near term again. Gold needs to remain below 1760 to head lower. Silver is bearish while below 27.

Brent (63.85) has risen slightly from 62. Note that 62-60 would be a near term support region which if holds could produce a bounce back to 65-68 levels in the near term. Only a break below 60 would we focus on a much deeper fall.

WTI (60.84) on the other hand has scope for a test of 55. A range of 65-55 may hold for the near term.

Gold (1731.40) is trading lower unable to rise above 1760 just now. While below 1760, we may expect another dip towards 1700 or lower. Else a sharp break above 1760 is needed to take the price higher towards 1800 in the medium term. Watch price action near 1760 if a rise from current levels is seen.

Silver (25.66) has dipped and is bearish while below 27. A fall towards 25-24 cannot be negated in the near term.

Copper (4.1130) is trading just below the strong near term resistance at 4.15 and if that holds we may expect a fall towards 3.90 on the downside. Only a break above 4.15 if seen and sustains would turn bullish for the metal again.

FOREX

Dollar Index trades lower after a test of 92.15 on the upside. A fall could be expected in the near term from current levels if the index sustains trade below 92. Euro looks ranged within 1.1835-1.20 while EURJPY may also trades sideways within 131-128.50. Aussie may head lower on a break below 0.77 while Pound may head towards 1.38 in the near term. USDJPY may get support near 108.00-108.50 from where a bounce could take it higher towards 109.50-110. USDCNY may head higher and looks bullish towards 6.54 while USDINR may test 72.20/10 on a sustained trade below 72.40.

Dollar Index (91.85) has come off from 92.15 over the last couple of days. Note that there is immediate resistance near 92.50 which if holds could produce a sharp rejection back towards 91 or lower. Immediate view is ranged while above 91.30.

Euro (1.1927) tested 1.1873 yesterday before bouncing higher from there. A sideways range of 1.1835-1.20 may hold for the near term.

EURJPY (129.69) could be ranged within 128.50-131 for the near term. If 131 holds as a strong resistance then we may eventually look for a dip below 129-128.50 in the near term to indicate a reversal in trend.

Dollar-Yen (108.75) tested 108.50 yesterday but is again trading slightly higher just now. Note that 108.50-108.00 is an immediate support region and while that produces a bounce, we may expect a rise back towards 109.50-110 in the medium term. A break below 108 needs to be seen and sustained for the pair to confirm a reversal in trend.

Aussie (0.7713) has dipped a bit and seems to break below 0.77 to head towards 0.7625-0.7600 in the near term. Immediate view is bearish while below 0.7840.

Pound (1.3838) continues to trade within 1.38-1.40 and needs to break on either direction to give a directional clarity moving ahead. For now while above 1.38, we may expect sideways movement within 1.38-1.40 to hold well.

USDCNY (6.5116) is slowly inching up towards the upper limit of the 6.48-6.54 range. Immediate view is bullish while above 6.48/50.

USDINR (72.37) broke below 72.40 yesterday to close lower. If the pair manages to trade below 72.40 today also then we may expect a test of 72.20/10 on the downside followed by a bounce from there in the medium term. The broad range would now be 72.20/10-72.40/50 while the pair manages to trade below 72.40. A sustained rise above 72.40, would then bring in the earlier range of 72.40-72.60 into focus.

INTEREST RATES

The US Treasury yields remain higher and stable. The trend is still up and we see room for the yields to move further higher from here to test their crucial long-term resistances before a strong reversal is seen. German yields consolidate higher within their overall uptrend. The outlook remains bullish and a further rise is possible. The 10Yr GoI can consolidate sideways before witnessing a fresh fall.

The US 2Yr (0.15%), 5Yr (0.85%), 10Yr (1.68%) and 30Yr (2.37%) Treasury yields remain stable. The trend is still up. The 10Yr has support at 1.6% while above which a test of 1.8% and even 2% on the upside is possible in the coming weeks. Thereafter a strong reversal is possible. The 30Yr on the other hand has room to test 2.5%-2.6% on the upside.

The German 2Yr (-0.71%), 5Yr (-0.66%) and 10Yr (-0.31%) yields remain stable while the 30Yr (0.26%) has dipped slightly. Outlook remains bullish to see a rise to -0.20%/-0.15% (10Yr) and 0.35% (30Yr) in the coming weeks. A strong reversal can be seen thereafter.

The 10Yr GoI (6.1801%) sustains above 6.16%. A sideways consolidation between 6.16% and 6.21% is possible in the near-term. The bias is bearish to see a break below 6.16% and a fall to 6.14%-6.10% eventually.

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Monday Morning Market Outlook: STOCKS, COMMODITIES, AND FOREX ANALYSIS

Aussie Has Bounced From 0.77

STOCKS

Equities seem to lack strong follow-through rise to move further higher. Our cautious stance remains intact and we will be looking for a sharp corrective fall in equities going forward although some upside is possible from current levels in some indices. The resistance at 33100 on the Dow is holding well and the index can fall on a break below 32500. DAX has its upside limited to 14900-15000 and can see a reversal from there. Nikkei has come-off sharply over the last couple of days and can see a deeper fall on a break below 29000. Shanghai can consolidate before falling further. Sensex and Nifty have recovered sharply on Friday. Have key resistances are ahead for them which can cap the upside and drag them lower again.

Dow (32627.97, −234.33, -0.71%) has come-off further on Friday. Failure to sustain the break above 33000 last week keeps our view of seeing a corrective fall to 32000-31000 intact. A break below 32500 can accelerate the fall. As mentioned last week, a strong rise past 33100 is necessarily needed to negate a corrective fall from here.

DAX (14621, −154.52, -1.05%) has come-off on Friday. The chances of seeing 14900-15000 is still alive. But as we have been mentioning, the upside is likely to be capped at 15000 and a corrective fall to 14000-13800 can be seen in the coming weeks. A sustained break above 15000 is needed to negate this fall.

Nikkei (29248.90, −543.15, -1.82%) has declined further sharply today. The reversal from last week’s high of 30485 leaves the chances high for Nikkei to break 29000 and see a deeper fall to 28000-27000 in the coming days.

Shanghai (3433.13, +28.46, 0.84%) can consolidate sideways between 3400 and 3500 for some time. A strong break above 3500 is needed to avoid a fall to 3250-3200 that we have been cautioning for some time.

Sensex (49858.24, +641.72, +1.30%)andNifty (14744, +186.15, +1.28%) had recovered sharply on Friday. However, it will have to be seen if they can sustain higher. 50000 on Sensex and 14800-14900 on Nifty are crucial levels that have to be breached in order to move up further. Our broader view remains bearish to see a fall to 48000-47000 (Sensex) and 14200-14000 (Nifty) eventually.

COMMODITIES

Crude prices trade lower but could trade within a broad range with bias tilted towards the downside. Gold trades below crucial resistance near 1750/60 which needs to break on the upside to see further bullishness else a fall back to 1700 or lower cannot be negated. Silver is likely to be ranged within 25-27 while Copper looks bearish below 4.15 and could dip towards 3.90 on the downside. While most commodities look sideways to bearish, we would keep a close watch on immediate supports and resistances.

Brent (64.22) tested a low of 61.60 last week and if it manages to remain above 60, we may expect a bounce back towards 65-68 levels in the near term else a break below 60 may drag the price down towards 55 in the medium term. WTI (61.09) on the other hand has tested 58.5 before bouncing from there. While above 55, we may expect a range of 55-65 to hold for the near term.

Gold (1735.80) is capped below immediate resistance of 1750/60 and needs to break above this level to turn bullish towards 1800. While below 1760, view is bearish for another fall from 1750/60 region.

Silver (25.78) is bearish while below 26.50-27.00. A ranged movement within 27-25 could be possible for the medium term. Unless a break on either side of this range is seen, it would be difficult to get clarity on further direction.

Copper (4.1095) has strong near term resistance at 4.15 and while that holds we may expect a fall towards 3.90 on the downside. View is bearish below 4.15.

FOREX

Dollar Index trades higher but may face rejection from 92.50 failure of which could take it higher towards 93+ levels. Euro has dipped below 1.19 and has scope for a fall to 1.1835 before seeing a bounce from there. Aussie and Pound look ranged within 0.7625-0.7840 and 1.38-1.40 respectively along with EURJPY which could trade within 128.50-131 for the near term. USDCNY too looks ranged between 6.48-6.54 for the medium term. USDINR needs to hold above 72.40 to remain within 72.40-72.60/80 for the near term. Else a break below 72.40 may trigger a fall to 72.20/10 before a bounce from there is seen. Watch price action near 72.40 today.

Dollar Index (92.05) has risen and could re-test 92.50 on the upside before declining from there. Failure to decline from 92.50 would make the index bullish for a rise to 93.20.Such a rise if seen above 92.50 would make other global currencies weak against the dollar.

Euro (1.887) has fallen below 1.19. A sideways range of 1.1835-1.20 could hold for the near term as our earlier range of 1.19-1.20 has been broken on the downside. An immediate fall to 1.1835 cannot be negated while below 1.19.

EURJPY (129.83) fell to test 128.93 but has bounced back well from there. Our mentioned range of 128.50-131 may hold for the near term. Watch out for a possible break above 131.

Dollar-Yen (108.83) is slowly inching lower and could test immediate support at 108 from where a bounce to 110 cannot be negated. However, a break below 18 would confirm reversal and lead to a sharp decline in the coming days. Watch price action near 108 in the coming sessions.

Aussie (0.7719) has bounced from 0.77 and while that holds a rise back to 0.78 cannot be ruled out. A broad range of 0.7625-0.7840 can hold for the near term.

Pound (1.3829) has fallen sharply from 1.40 over the last two sessions and needs to break on either side of the 1.38-1.40 range to give a directional trend for the near term. For now while above 138, we may expect sideways movement within 1.38-1.40 to hold well.

USDCNY (6.5108) is ranged within 6.48-6.54 region and needs to break on either side of the range to throw some directional clarity. For now we may expect the mentioned range to continue for a few more sessions.

USDINR (72.5125) may test support at 72.40 but we would keep a close watch to see if it holds or gives way for a fall to 72.20/10. While above 72.40, we may expect a range of 72.40-72.60/80 to hold for the near term.

INTEREST RATES

The US Treasury yields have come-off in early Asian trades. But the broader view continues to remain bullish and there is room for the yields to move up further before a strong reversal is seen. The German yields continue to remain bullish and can move up in the coming days. The 10Yr GoI looks vulnerable for a sharp fall on a break below 6.16%.

The US 2Yr (0.15%), 5Yr (0.85%), 10Yr (1.68%) and 30Yr (2.39%) Treasury yields have come-off well especially at the far-end in the early Asian session today. 1.6% and 1.5% are important supports on the 10Yr. While above these supports, the outlook is bullish to test 1.8% and even 2% on the upside in the coming days. The 30Yr can test 2.5% and may even have room to extend the rise to 2.7%-2.9%. The 30Yr has to fall below 2.2% to negate the above mentioned rise.

The German 2Yr (-0.71%), 5Yr (-0.65%), 10Yr (-0.30%) and 30Yr (0.28%) have dipped across tenors on Friday. However, the broader view continues to remain bullish. The 10Yr can rise to -0.20%/-0.15% and the 30Yr can test 0.35% on the upside. Thereafter a reversal is possible.

The 10Yr GoI (6.1927%) is getting support near 6.16% but has to rise past 6.20% decisively in order to test 6.26% on the upside again. The bias is bearish to see a break below 6.16% and a fall to 6.14%-6.10% eventually going forward.

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