AUDJPY Elliott Wave: Forecasting the Path (16 April 2024)

Hello fellow traders. In this technical blog we’re going to take a quick look at the Elliott Wave charts of AUDJPY Forex pair, published in members area of the website. As our members know we have been favoring the long side in YEN pairs. Recently we got a pull back that has made a clear 3 waves pull back that found buyers right at the equal legs area. In the further text we are going to explain the Elliott Wave forecast

AUDJPY H1 Weekend Update 04.13.2024

AUDJPY ended cycle from the 96.8676 low and now correcting it. Current view suggests wave 4 red pull back can be unfolding as Elliott Wave Zig Zag Pattern. The Equal legs area is already reached at 98.799-98.460. We are aware that pull back can complete any moment. We don’t recommend selling the pair and expect further rally to resume from the buyers zone : 98.799-98.460.

AUDJPY H1 Weekend Update 04.15.2024

AUDJPY has given us a nice reaction from the Equal Legs zone as expected. The bounce reached and exceeded 50% Fibonacci retracement against the ((b)) high, so we consider wave 4 red completed at the 98.7 low. We anticipate a break of the 3 red peak to confirm that the next leg up is in progress. Alternatively, if the price breaks below the 98.7 low, the pair will open up the possibility for a 7-swing pattern toward 97.963-97.476 area. In that case, any long positions will be stopped out at Break Even, and we will look to buy the dips again at the next set of equal legs.

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USDBRL Analysis: Burst Higher Has Brought Long-Term Values into Play (16 April 2024)

The USD/BRL saw another climb in value yesterday, which correlated to the broad Forex market; the currency pair is now testing long-term highs.

• The USD/BRL closed near the 5.1875 mark yesterday. Friday’s trading concluded around the 5.1150 mark.
• The upwards track of the USD/BRL likely has some in Brazil nervous, but the bullish momentum being displayed in the currency pair mirrors the global Forex market as the USD has gained strength.
• On April the 10th the USD/BRL was trading slightly below the 5.0000 level. Yesterday’s high was above the 5.2100 level momentarily.

The reason for the move higher is a USD centric influence. U.S inflation data proved stronger than expected last week. And yesterday’s Retail Sales statistics added fuel onto the notion the U.S Federal Reserve will not be able to cut its Federal Funds Rate anytime soon. Inflation in Brazil has been stubborn also but seemingly under control, the USD/BRL however is moving according to the acknowledgement interest rates are not likely going to be changed in the U.S.

Growth in Brazil Remain Steady but the USD/BRL is Testing Long-Term Values

While Brazil has maintained steady growth under its current leadership and inflation remains relatively tame, the USD/BRL is now testing values last seen briefly in the first week of October 2023. If the current higher values are sustained in the USD/BRL, putting aside the brief spikes higher seen in September and October of 2023, the last time the currency pair has traversed its current value range in a steady fashion was from January to March 2023.

Technical traders who believe the USD/BRL is overbought need to consider that financial institutions have shifted their outlooks regarding U.S interest rate cut potential. The possibility that the Fed will have to remain cautious into the late summer of 2024 is having an effect on the thinking of traders. The question short-term speculators need to watch out for is if the USD/BRL sustains its current values, if this happens over the next couple of days this will create speculative intrigue.

USD/BRL Upwards Path and Resistance in Question

The ability of the USD/BRL to march higher has not been achieved on its own, the currency pair is correlating to the broad Forex market, and traders need to keep their eyes on USD centric notions. Resistance levels may look tempting as places to look for reversals, but speculators should be very cautious.

• The U.S will not release a lot of economic data this week going forward that will be ultra-significant, meaning behavioral sentiment may remain nervous.
• Weekly jobs numbers will come from the U.S on Thursday, but unless there is a major surprise, the USD/BRL is likely to remain choppy in the near-term and until the end of this week.

Brazilian Real Short Term Outlook:

Current Resistance: 5.1990

Current Support: 5.1820

High Target: 5.2210

Low Target: 5.1690

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Australian Dollar Lower After Soft #CPI Data: #AUDUSD (31 Jan 2024)

The Australian dollar has lost ground after Australia’s CPI was lower than expected. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6578, down o.37%. The Aussie continues to struggle and has declined 3.4% in January.

Australia’s CPI eases to 3.4%

Australia’s inflation rate continues to decline, which will be sweet music to the ears of central bank policy makers. CPI for Q4 2023 fell to 4.1% y/y, down sharply from 5.4% in Q3 and below the market estimate of 4.3%. Inflation has decelerated for a third straight month and has fallen to its lowest since November 2021. The drop in inflation was felt across the economy and goods and services inflation eased. A key core CPI indicator, the trimmed mean, fell to 4.2% y/y, down sharply from 5.2% and just below the market estimate of 4.3%. The decline in inflation was also apparent on a quarterly basis. CPI fell from 1.2% to 0.6% in the fourth quarter and the trimmed-mean CPI dropped to 0.8%, down from 1.2% in the third quarter.

The inflation report is the final key release before the Reserve Bank of Australia meets on February 6. The RBA isn’t expected to start cutting rates until the second half of 2024 and it’s a virtual certainty that the RBA will hold rates next week at 4.35%. The RBA hasn’t signalled it will cut rates, but inflation has been moving in the right direction and the economy has been cooling down, with consumer spending falling and the labour market showing cracks.

This week’s retail sales report was a reminder that consumers are being squeezed by the cost of living crisis. December retail sales plunged 2.7% m/m, as Black Friday sales contributed to the November reading of 1.6%. Consumers did their Christmas shopping early and that led to a very soft reading in December.

AUD/USD Technical

• AUD/USD is testing support at 0.6583. Next, there is support at 0.6544
• There is resistance at 0.6613 and 0.6652

 

 

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#USDCAD Wave Chart Analysis: Rally Likely Fail in 3, 7, 11 Swing (31 Jan 2024)

Short Term Elliott Wave view in USDCAD suggests that rally to 1.354 ended wave (B). Pair has since turned lower in wave (C). However, confirmation is needed to validate this view and pair still needs to break below the previous low on 12.27.2023 at 1.3172. Down from wave (B), wave (i) ended at 1.3475 and rally in wave (ii) ended at 1.3528. Pair extended lower in wave (iii) towards 1.3417 and wave (iv) ended at 1.3444. Final leg wave (v) ended at 1.3413 which completed wave ((i)). Pair then rallied in wave ((ii)) which subdivides into a zigzag structure.

Up from wave ((i)), wave (a) ended at 1.349 and pullback in wave (b) ended at 1.3425. Wave (c) higher ended at 1.3534 which completed wave ((ii)). Pair has turned lower in wave ((iii)) towards 1.3411 and rally in wave ((iv)) ended at 1.3467. Pair then made another low in wave ((v)) as a diagonal. Down from wave ((iv)), wave (i) ended at 1.3424 and wave (ii) ended at 1.3465. Wave (iii) lower ended at 1.3397, wave (iv) ended at 1.3446, and wave (v) ended at 1.3396. This completed wave ((v)) of 1 in higher degree. Expect pair to rally in wave 2 to correct cycle from 1.17.2024 high before it resumes lower. Near term, as far as pivot at 1.354 high stays intact, expect rally to fail in 3, 7, 11 swing for further downside.

USDCAD 45 Minutes Elliott Wave Chart

 

 

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#USDJPY Remains In Strong Uptrend As #Dollar Gains Strength (25 Aug 2023)

Key Highlights

• USD/JPY climbed above the 146.00 level before it corrected lower.
• A key bearish trend line is forming with resistance near 146.15 on the 4-hour chart.
• EUR/USD could extend losses below the 1.0800 level.
• GBP/USD could dive and trade toward 1.2550.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

The US Dollar started a strong increase above the 143.20 level against the Japanese Yen. USD/JPY even before the 144.50 resistance and climbed above 145.50.

 

Looking at the 4-hour chart, the pair traded toward the 146.50 level and settled above the 100 simple moving average (red, 4 hours) and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4 hours).

A high was formed near 146.55 before there was a minor downside correction. The pair traded below the 145.50 level and tested the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 141.51 swing low to the 146.55 high.

The pair stayed above 144.60 and the 100 simple moving average (red, 4 hours). It is now attempting a fresh increase above 145.20. On the upside, an initial resistance is near the 146.20 level. There is also a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 146.15 on the same chart.

A close above 146.20 could start a decent increase. In the stated case, the pair could rise toward the 146.55 level. Any more gains could start a fresh increase toward the 148.00 level.

If not, the pair might react to the downside toward the 144.60 support. The next key support is seen near the 144.00 level or the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 141.51 swing low to the 146.55 high.

If there is a move below 144.00, the pair could dive toward 142.50. Any more gains might open the doors for a test of 141.50.

Looking at EUR/USD, the pair is still trading in a bearish zone and there is a risk of more downsides below the 1.0800 level.

Economic Releases

• German IFO Business Climate Index for August 2023 – Forecast 86.7, versus 87.3 previous.
• Jackson Hole Symposium.
• Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s Speech.

 

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Dollar reaching new lows versus the EUR, JPY, CHF, NZD

Dollar going lower into the London close

As London/European traders look to exit, the USD is trading to new session lows vs the EUR, JPY, CHF, CAD and NZD.

EURUSD: The EURUSD has moved up to the highest level since July 6 and in the process is testing its 61.8% retracement of the move down from the June 25 high. That comes in at 1.18893. The next upside target comes in at 1.18947. That was the high going back to July 6. Looking at the 5 minute chart, the buyers have been able to stay above its 100 bar moving average on that chart (blue line). That moving average currently comes in at 1.18772. It would take a move below that moving average level, the 50% of the last trend leg higher at 1.1870, and the rising 200 bar MA at 1.1865 to tilt the bias more to the downside. If those steps cannot be taken, the buyers are still holding the better hand.

USDJPY: The USDJPY move below its 100 day moving average in the last hourly bar. That moving average comes in at 109.567. The low reached 109.464. Stay below the 100 day moving average keeps the Bears/sellers firmly in control.

USDCHF: The USDCHF move below its 200 day moving average today at 0.90732. THe low price reached 0.90543. The quick and dirty short term technical bias remains negative as well was the price can remain below the 200 day moving average. A move above and sellers below the MA line, would likely cover and we should see more upside corrective probing. For now, the sellers are more control.

NZDUSD: The NZDUSD has trended higher and in the process has moved up to test its 61.8% retracement target of the July trading range at 0.70188. There is some stall against the retracement target. The price currently trades at 0.70104.

Looking at the 5-minute chart below, a corrective low in the NA session did crack below the 100 bar moving average on the five minute chart (blue line), but momentum stalled well ahead of the rising 200 bar moving average (green line in the chart below) and restarted the upside momentum. It would take a move below the earlier swing highs at 0.7002, 0.6997 and the rising 100 bar moving average at 0.69951 to give sellers some comfort, and also cause buyers to feel more uncomfortable after the trend move higher.

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Dollar Steady Despite Inflation Data: 14 MAY 2021

The US Dollar kept close to its weekly high after a report showed that producer prices continued to rise, suggesting that inflation is also on the rise in the US.

The PPI had surged 1% in March, and April’s numbers showed the trend continuing. According to the report from the US Labor Department, the PPI came in at 6.2% on a year-over-year basis, above the 5.9% that analysts had predicted. Annualized core CPI, which eliminates volatile components, i.e., food and energy, came in at 4.1% against an expected 3.7%. The Labor Department also reported that initial claims for unemployment benefit was lower than expected at 473,000 for the period ended May 7th. Analysts had expected a fall to 490,000, while the previous reading was upwardly revised to 507,000 from 498,000.

In Tokyo trading as of 10:04 am, the US Dollar Index was trading at 90.7800 .DXY, up 0.03%. The EUR/USD was lower at $1.2074, down 0.0414%, off the session peak of $1.20743. The GBP/USD was also lower at $1.4044, down 0.0434%; the pair has ranged from a low of $1.40354 while the high was at $1.40617.

Markets to Focus on US Data

The economic calendar is light on market movers until later in the US market session when the US Census Bureau releases updates on retail sales. The US economy is largely consumer driven, and a rise in the numbers, while good for the economy in the short term, can be cause for concern. With inflation fears on the rise, higher retail sales could prompt speculation that the Federal Reserve might reconsider their monetary policy stance. A slew of other data is also due out from the US including industrial production and the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index which analysts are predicting will show a slight rise to 90.4.

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Dollar mixed, US futures steady so far on the session:7 May 2021

Little change in the major currencies space

It is all about the US non-farm payrolls report today as the market feels rather lethargic at the moment. The dollar is trading more mixed, holding a slight advance against the commodity currencies while trailing behind the euro and pound.

That said, changes are relatively minor with EUR/USD keeping around 1.2080-90 after ECB policymaker Kazaks talked up scaling back PEPP purchases.

European stocks are faring well, keeping a modest advance, but US futures are not doing a whole lot as they keep steady and little changed on the session.

S&P 500 futures are up 0.1%, holding thereabouts since Asia Pacific trading. Meanwhile, 10-year Treasury yields are flat on the day at 1.57% and that isn’t giving traders much to work with during European morning trade.

Tick tock. Tick tock. The payroll data can’t come soon enough.

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