AUDJPY Elliott Wave: Forecasting the Path (16 April 2024)

Hello fellow traders. In this technical blog we’re going to take a quick look at the Elliott Wave charts of AUDJPY Forex pair, published in members area of the website. As our members know we have been favoring the long side in YEN pairs. Recently we got a pull back that has made a clear 3 waves pull back that found buyers right at the equal legs area. In the further text we are going to explain the Elliott Wave forecast

AUDJPY H1 Weekend Update 04.13.2024

AUDJPY ended cycle from the 96.8676 low and now correcting it. Current view suggests wave 4 red pull back can be unfolding as Elliott Wave Zig Zag Pattern. The Equal legs area is already reached at 98.799-98.460. We are aware that pull back can complete any moment. We don’t recommend selling the pair and expect further rally to resume from the buyers zone : 98.799-98.460.

AUDJPY H1 Weekend Update 04.15.2024

AUDJPY has given us a nice reaction from the Equal Legs zone as expected. The bounce reached and exceeded 50% Fibonacci retracement against the ((b)) high, so we consider wave 4 red completed at the 98.7 low. We anticipate a break of the 3 red peak to confirm that the next leg up is in progress. Alternatively, if the price breaks below the 98.7 low, the pair will open up the possibility for a 7-swing pattern toward 97.963-97.476 area. In that case, any long positions will be stopped out at Break Even, and we will look to buy the dips again at the next set of equal legs.

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GBPJPY Trades Lower Ahead of Key Market Events (4 April 2024)

• GBPJPY is in the red again today, not far from its recent high
• It has dropped below the January 2, 2024 ascending trendline
• Momentum indicators are in waiting mode for the next key market events

GBPJPY is trading lower again today as the market is preparing for today’s US labour market report, which could play a key role in the Fed’s outlook. The move from the January 2, 2024 low has been aggressive despite the recent BoJ rate hike but the threat of intervention appears to have already borne fruit. However, the Japanese officials’ resolve could be really tested if another strong rally takes place soon.

In the meantime, the momentum indicators are clearly directionless and trendless. More specifically, the Average Directional Movement Index (ADX) remains stuck below its 25-threshold, signaling a range-trading market. Similarly, the RSI continues to hover around 50, confirming the current indecisiveness of market participants. More importantly, the stochastic oscillator is trading around its midpoint, pointing to a delicate balance in GBPJPY.

Should the bulls remain confident, they could try to lead GBPJPY back above the January 2, 2024 ascending trendline and test the resistance set by the July 21, 2005 low at 192.57. They could then have the chance to record a new 2024 high, above the current 193.52 high, with the next plausible target being in the 195.00 area.

On the other hand, the bears are desperate to regain market control and gradually push GBPJPY towards the 189.61-189.81 area, which is populated by the March 31, 2004 low and the 50-day simple moving average (SMA). If successful, they could then have a go at testing the support set by the busy 186.65-186.76 range that is defined by the August 22, 2023 high and the 100-day SMA.

To sum up, market participants are mostly on the sidelines ahead of the certain key market events with the GBPJPY bulls also trying to avoid further provoking the Japanese authorities.

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USDJPY Hovers Beneath 152 Ceiling as Bulls Refuse to Give Up (4 April 2024)

• USDJPY remains stuck within 151-152 range
• Neutral trend looks safe for now
• But strong support keeps bullish forces alive

USDJPY has been gradually inching higher after dropping near the floor of the sideway range at the end of March to briefly touch 151.01. Prices made it all the way to 151.94 on Wednesday before easing again.

However, with both the 20- and 50-day simple moving averages (SMA) lurking below the price action, there is still a possibility of a fresh attempt to break above the 152.00 ceiling in the near term. Looking at the momentum indicators, the stochastic oscillator is sending positive signals in the four-hour chart, as the %K line has crossed above the %D line. The RSI is somewhat more neutral as it remains flat, but it managed to hold above the 50 level after the latest dip.

Should the positive momentum gather more traction, the bulls will likely again target the 152.00 handle. A successful break above it would bring the 123.6% Fibonacci extension of the early February-March downleg at 152.55 into view. Further gains would turn attention to the 161.8% Fibonacci of 153.60.

However, if the bears manage to defend the 152.00 level in the coming days, a sharp pullback would become inevitable. The 151.00 floor would become the first major test in the negative scenario, with the 100-day SMA offering further support at 150.70, after which the 200-day SMA would come into scope at 150.10. A drop below the psychologically important level of 150.00 would shift the short-term risk to the downside.

In brief, USDJPY still stands a chance of hitting fresh 34-year highs. But the longer it lingers within its current sideways range without breaching the upper bound, the more likely that it will reverse lower at some point.

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CHFJPY Forecast: Swiss Franc Continues to Consolidate Against Yen (2 April 2024)

CHF/JPY consolidates; ¥167 support key. Interest rate dynamics between SNB and BoJ shape pair’s trend. Break above ¥169 may signal uptrend, influencing JPY pairs.

• The Swiss franc has been back and forth during the trading session on Monday, as this market is going to continue to see a lot of noisy behavior.
• The ¥167 level underneath has been offered support a couple of times, and therefore I think it’s possible that we would see a situation where we have a lot of noise in this area.

A Battle Between Funding Currencies

The Swiss franc initially did try to rally against the Japanese yen, but as it pulled back it looks like we are just simply settling into some type of short-term range. This is a pair that I watch quite often, due to the fact that one of the facts of life when trading currencies is that you are trying to move with interest rates. The Swiss franc and the Japanese yen are two of the world’s favorite funding currencies, and even though the Bank of Japan recently increased interest rates to a whopping 0.1%, the reality is that the Swiss National Bank has recently cut rates. That’s part of why we are seeing a downtrend in the short-term, but in the longer term we still see an interest rate differential that pays you to own this pair at the end of the day. Granted, it’s not a lot but it’s enough to continue to favor shorting the Japanese yen.

Ultimately, this is a situation where if we can break above the 50-Day EMA above, which is closer to the ¥169 level, then we could see quite a bit of upward momentum. In that environment, I would anticipate that the Japanese yen would get eviscerated against most currencies, not just this one. After all, this will be the “weakest currency” to match up against the Japanese yen, so this will give you a good idea as to how many people will be jumping into short the yen, and start buying other currencies in pairs like the GBP/JPY, NZD/JPY, and AUD/JPY currency markets. In other words, this chart is a bit of a harbinger for what happens with the JPY overall.

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EURJPY Forecast: #Euro Continues to Search for Support Again Slowly Japanese #Yen (2 April 2024)

Euro seeks support against JPY; interest rate differential favors Europe. EUR/JPY expected to rise, with BoJ’s modest rate hike unlikely to impact long-term trend.

• The euro initially tried to rally a bid during the early hours on Monday, but then drifted a bit lower against the Japanese yen.
• That being said, I still believe that this market eventually goes higher, as we have such a huge interest rate differential between the 2 currencies.
• Granted, I don’t necessarily think that the market shoot straight up in the air, but I do think that it’s only a matter time before the buyers jump back in insert taken advantage of value.

The interest rate differential continues to favor Europe, but even then, you have to keep in mind that the ECB is likely to cut rates later this year. That being said, I still think the Japanese yen remains a bit of a punching bag for the currency markets, and therefore I’m looking for an opportunity to start buying this pair again. I need to see some type of short-term bounce to take advantage of, and then I will get long yet again.

Bank of Japan

The Bank of Japan is of course in focus, due to the fact that the Japanese have recently raised interest rates. That being said, the interest rate is still just 0.1%, so I would not read too much into it being tighter down the road. In fact, they have since walked back the idea of raising interest rates to aggressively, so I think you probably have a situation where it’s only a matter of time before traders will continue to punish the Japanese in.

Underneath, we have the 50-Day EMA coming into the picture offering a bit of support, and I think at this point in time, it continues to act as a bit of a short-term trendline. I’m simply waiting for some type of short-term bounce to take advantage of so I can get on the “right side of the V” after that bounce, then you have a place from which to place your stop loss. Ultimately, the market I think will revisit the highs, and I do not think that we have seen the swing high for the longer term at this point in time. I have no interest in shorting this market.

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USDJPY Could Consolidate Before Fresh Increase (29 MARCH 2024)

Key Highlights

• USD/JPY climbed higher above the 150.50 and 151.20 resistance levels.
• A major bullish trend line is forming with support at 150.60 on the 4-hour chart.
• EUR/USD could gain bearish momentum below 1.0820.
• Crude oil prices are accelerating above the $82.50 resistance zone.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

The US Dollar climbed further higher above the 149.20 resistance zone against the Japanese Yen. USD/JPY broke the 150.00 resistance to set the pace for more upsides.

Looking at the 4-hour chart, the pair even settled above the 150.50 level, the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour), and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour). Finally, the pair broke the 151.80 level.

A high was formed at 151.97 and the pair is now consolidating gains. On the upside, the pair could face resistance near the 151.50 level. The first major resistance is now forming near 151.80. The main resistance is now forming near 152.00.

A close above the 152.00 zone could open the doors for more upsides. The next stop for the bulls might be 153.20. If not, the pair might continue to decline. Immediate support is near the 151.00 level.

The next major support is at 150.50. There is also a major bullish trend line forming with support at 150.60 on the same chart. If there is a downside break below the 150.50 support, the pair could decline toward the 150.00 support. Any more losses might send the pair toward the 148.40 level in the near term.

Looking at Oil, the bulls are active above the $82.50 resistance level and they might soon aim for more upsides toward the $85 level.

Economic Releases

• US Personal Income for Feb 2024

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USDJPY Slides to Lowest Level Since 1990 (27 MARCH 2024)

The Japanese yen has edged higher on Wednesday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 151.17, down 0.26%.

Yen falls to 34-year low, will Tokyo intervene?

The Bank of Japan raised interest rates last week for the first time since 2007. The move marked a sea-change in monetary policy. However, the tightening has not translated into gains for the Japanese yen, which remains under pressure. Earlier today, the yen fell as low as 151.97, its lowest level since 1990.

Will the yen’s slide trigger a currency intervention from Japan’s Ministry of Finance? The MOF intervened last October when the yen dropped to 151.94, which means we are clearly within “intervention territory”. The MOF’s response to the current decline, however, has been limited to verbal intervention.

On Monday, as the top currency diplomat, Masato Kanda, sent a warning to speculators that he was concerned by the yen’s slide, saying it did not reflect fundamentals. Earlier today, Japan’s finance minister, Shunichi Suzuki, warned that excessive movement by the yen would be answered with “decisive steps”.

Japanese officials have limited their response to the yen’s woes with jawboning but the risk of intervention is very real and will increase if the yen continues to lose ground. Still, it should be noted that last year’s interventions didn’t really get the job done, as yen gains were short-lived.

The lack of certainty as to whether Tokyo will intervene to prop up the yen could result in volatility for USD/JPY and investors will be listening carefully to every comment coming out of the BoJ or the MOF.

USD/JPY Technical

• USD/JPY remains range-bound on the weekly chart:
• 152.58 and 153.70 are the next resistance lines
• There is support at 150.74 and 149.62

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The GBP is the strongest and the JPY is the weakest as the NA session begins

The USD is tilted to the downside.

The GBP is the strongest and the JPY is the weakest as the NA session begins. The USD is tilting to the downside. The Colonial pipeline is still down after a ransomware attack but is not supposed to disrupt supply for long. The price of copper and iron ore reached new all time highs overnight. The US will continue to digest the weaker than expected employment report “the Monday after”, but the stock market rotation continues with S&P and Dow higher (and at record levels) while the Nasdaq index is down in pre-market trading. On Friday, the Nasdaq led the way higher with a gain of 119.40 points. The UK risk of a Scottish breakup was averted for now at least.

Looking at the ranges and changes, The GBPUSD has seen the biggest moves on the Scottish news with all the GBP pairs higher and with oversized ranges (relative to their 22 day averages). For the other pairs, the ranges are more less impressive but decent for a Monday. The USDCAD is lower once again and trades at a new low going back to September 2017 (the 2017 low at 1.20612 is getting closer with a low today of 1.20937.

Looking at other markets:

• Spot gold is up $8.56 or 0.47% $1839.75
• spot silver is up $0.28 or 1.05% or $27.73
• WTI crude oil futures are up $0.56 or 0.86% at $65.46
• Bitcoin is down $100 or -0.14% at $57860. Dogecoin fell after Elon Musk’s SNL hosting did not bring the promotion traders were expecting
• Ethereum did reach a new record over the weekend and is currently trading at $4100

The premarket for US stocks are showing mixed results:

• S&P index up 4.65 points points. On Friday the index rose 30.98 points to a new all-time record
• Dow up 122 points. On Friday the index rose 229.23 points to a new all-time record
• NASDAQ index down 43 points. Friday the index rose 119.40 points.

in the European equity markets, the major indices are mixed:

• German DAX, -0.1%
• Francis CAC, -0.1%
• UK’s FTSE 100, +0.1%
• Spain’s Ibex, +0.6%
• Italy’s FTSE MIB, +0.5%

in the US debt market, yields are mixed:

in the European debt market, the benchmark 10 year yields are also trading with mixed results:

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