#EURUSD Tumbles While #USDJPY Seems Unstoppable (4 OCT 2023)

EUR/USD remained in a bearish zone and declined below 1.0530. USD/JPY is again rising and might climb toward the 150.00 level.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/JPY Analysis Today

  • The Euro started a fresh decline below the 1.0530 support zone.
  • There is a short-term bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.0475 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen.
  • USD/JPY climbed higher above the 148.00 and 148.75 levels.
  • There was a rejection noticed near a bearish trend line at 150.15 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen, the pair remained in a bearish zone below the 1.0650 level, as mentioned in the previous analysis. The Euro declined below the 1.0530 support zone against the US Dollar.

The pair even settled below the 1.0500 zone and the 50-hour simple moving average. A low is formed near 1.0448 and the pair is now consolidating losses. On the upside, the pair is now facing resistance near a short-term bearish trend line at 1.0475.

 

 

The next key resistance is near the 50-hour simple moving average and the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.0617 swing high to the 1.0448 low at 1.0485.

A clear move above the 1.0485 level could send the pair toward the 1.0530 resistance. It is close to the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.0617 swing high to the 1.0448 low. An upside break above 1.0530 could set the pace for another increase. In the stated case, the pair might rise toward 1.0615.

If not, the pair might resume its decline. The first major support on the EUR/USD chart is near 1.0450. The next key support is at 1.0420. If there is a downside break below 1.0420, the pair could drop toward 1.0380. The next support is near 1.0335, below which the pair could start a major decline.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of USD/JPY at FXOpen, the pair started a decent increase from the 145.00 zone. The US Dollar gained bullish momentum above 148.00 against the Japanese Yen.

It settled above the 50-hour simple moving average and 148.75. However, the pair faced a rejection noticed near a bearish trend line at 150.15. There was a sharp decline below the 148.00 level. However, it turned out to be a false move and the price trimmed most losses.

 

 

It is back above the 148.75 level and the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 150.15 swing high to the 147.32 low.

Immediate resistance on the USD/JPY chart is near the 50-hour simple moving average at 149.50. It is close to the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 150.15 swing high to the 147.32 low.

The first major resistance is near 150.15. If there is a close above the 150.15 level and the RSI moves above 50, the pair could rise toward 151.20. The next major resistance is near 152.00, above which the pair could test 153.50 in the coming days.

On the downside, the first major support is near 148.75. The next major support is 148.00. If there is a close below 148.00, the pair could decline steadily.

In the stated case, the pair might drop toward the 147.30 support zone. The next stop for the bears may perhaps be near the 145.50 region.

This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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📊Premium #FOREX SIGNAL: #EURUSD (22 Aug 2023)

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#EURUSD Forex Signal: Daily Chart Points to a Drop to 1.0800 (15 Aug 2023)

The EUR/USD pair is also under pressure because of the happenings in the global economy.

Bearish view

  • Sell the EUR/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.0800.
  • Add a stop-loss at 1.1090.
  • Timeline: 1-2 days.

Bullish view

  • Set a buy-stop at 1.100 and a take-profit at 1.1100.
  • Add a stop-loss at 1.0800.

The EUR/USD sell-off continued as the pair tumbled to the lowest level since July 7th as the US dollar firmed. The pair dropped to the key support level at 1.0874 on Monday and then pulled back to 1.0921

US retail sales data ahead

The US dollar index continued rising this week amid rising concerns about the American and global economy. These gains continued after last week’s mixed US inflation data. The numbers showed that the headline consumer price index (CPI) rose to 3.2% while core CPI fell to 4.7%.

These numbers mean that the Federal Reserve will likely pause its rate hikes in the next meeting in September. The bank has already pushed rates from zero during the pandemic to a 22-year high of 5.50%.

The EUR/USD pair is also under pressure because of the happenings in the global economy. China, the second-biggest economy in the world, is struggling, as evidenced by the weak industrial production data published today.

There are more cracks in the Chinese economy as Country Garden, a leading real estate failed to pay its bonds. It could be the second-biggest company in China to go under after Evergrande collapsed two years ago. As a result, the US dollar has become a safe haven for investors.

The next key data to watch will be the upcoming US retail sales data. With the unemployment rate and prices falling, there is a likelihood that retail sales did well in July. Economists expect the numbers to show that core retail sales dropped by 0.3% in July while the headline figure rose by 0.4%.

In Europe, the key event to watch will be a report by the European Commission on Europe’s economic forecasts. Still, the impact of this report on the EUR/USD pair will be limited.

EUR/USD technical analysis

The EUR/USD pair has been in a downward trend in the past few weeks. Along the way, the pair has moved below the important support level at 1.1090, the highest level on April 27th. It has moved below the 25-day and 50-day moving averages.

Also, the pair is above the ascending trendline shown in green. This trendline connects the lowest level since March. Therefore, the pair will likely continue falling as sellers target this trendline at ~1.0800. The stop-loss of this trade is at 1.1090.

 

 

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#Morning #marketupdate: #Currency Pair of the Week: #EURUSD (28 March 2022)

This week the Eurozone will Flash CPI for March. Expectations are for a print of 6.6% vs a reading of 5.9% in February. The flash core CPI, which excludes energy, alcohol, food and tobacco, is expected to be 3.1% vs 2.7% in February. In addition, early in the week, a host of ECB officials are due to speak, including President Christine Lagarde and Philip Lane (who recently said that even though core inflation is currently above 2%, there are reasons to believe it will fade.) Recall that at the last ECB meeting, the central bank left rates unchanged, however it also announced a faster winding down of the asset purchase program. It will now only purchase 40 billion worth of bonds in April, 30 billion Euros worth in May, and 20 billion worth in June, effectively ending the program in Q3 (as opposed to Q4). In addition, the central bank increased its inflation forecasts and lowered its growth forecasts. Will ECB speakers increase their hawkishness this week? Or will they be too concerned about the uncertainties of the Russia/Ukraine conflict and hold back on their comments. (Russia and Ukraine are due to hold face to face negotiations this week, the first time in 2 weeks).

The US will also release inflation data this week, including the Fed’s favorite measure of inflation, Core PCE. The February Core PCE, which excludes food and energy, is expected to be 5.5% YoY vs 5.2% YoY in January. In addition, the US will release Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday. Expectations are for 475,000 additional jobs to be added to the economy in March vs a whopping 678,000 jobs added in February. Also, Average Hourly Earnings (which shows wage inflation) is expected to have risen by 0.4% in March vs 0% in February. Recall from last week that a number of Fed speakers were hawkish, including Fed Chairman Powell and Fed members Daly and Mester. As a result, markets are now pricing in roughly a 71% chance of a 50bps hike in May, according to the CME’s Fed watch tool. However, if the data this week is weaker than expected, will those odds drop?

EUR/USD has been in a long-term downward sloping channel since May 2021. On March 7th, the pair tested trendline support at the a long-term trendline dating back to January 2017 at 1.0806. This was also just below the 161.8% Fibonacci extension from the low of January 28th to the highs of February 10th. EUR/USD bounced to resistance at the March 7th lows near 1.1121 on March 17th. Since then, the pair has fallen for 6 of the last trading days.

 

 

On a 240-minute timeframe, as price moved higher of the low, it formed an ascending wedge pattern. EUR/USD broke below the bottom trendline on March 21st. First support is at the recent lows of 1.0806, which also confluences with the bottom trendline of the long-term channel (green). Below there, price can fall to horizontal support at 1.0727 and 1.0636 (see daily). First resistance is at the recent highs (and previous lows) near 1.1121, which also confluences with the bottom trendline of the ascending wedge. Above there is the top, downward sloping trendline of the long-term channel (green) near 1.1165 and then the top trendline of the wedge near 1.1200.

 

 

With inflation data from both the Eurozone and the US this week, EUR/USD could be on the move. Throw in central bank speaks, the Russia/Ukraine war, and Non-Farm Payroll data, and EUR/USD could be in for some exceptional volatility later in the week.

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