Nasdaq 100 Forecast: September 2023
The NASDAQ 100 is an indicator of risk appetite that a lot of people will be following closely for September. After all, September is a little bit different than many other months, as there is a surge of volume coming back in, as the trading public comes back from summer vacation. Because of this, the early part of the month of September will probably be very choppy.
Beyond that, the first month day of the month is the Non-Farm Payroll announcement, so it does suggest that perhaps you can’t read too much into the very beginning of the month. Furthermore, the following Monday will be Labor Day in America, so we really don’t get back to business until the middle of the week. At that point, it’ll be interesting to see how things play out, but it’s obvious that the market favors the upside in general.
- Keep in mind that the NASDAQ 100 is a major index as far as “putting money to work”, as there are a handful of stocks that seem to be driving everything.
- Whether or not we go back to the “AI narrative” will have a lot to do with what happens here, but the overall attitude of the market looks very positive from the technical analysis standpoint.
- After all, it looks like on the weekly chart we are forming a bit of a bullish flag, and therefore I think the signal as to whether or not we are going to continue to go higher would be a daily close above 15,900.
- If we can break that area, then the 16,000 level obviously causes a bit of resistance but opens up the gateway to the market going much higher, giving an opportunity to hang on for what could be the next couple of months.
On the other hand, if we do pull back, the 14,600 level could be an area that attracts a lot of support, followed by the 13,750 level where the 50-Week EMA comes into the picture, and I do believe that is the “bottom of the overall uptrend. As long as we can stay above there, then the market is likely to continue to attract buyers. However, if we do see the market breakdown below there, then it could lead to a much deeper correction. The question is whether or not the narrative can hold between now and the end of the year, because right now it looks like everybody’s excited about the possibility of the Federal Reserve slowing down monetary tightening, which also has money looking for hot stocks like the ones that make up most of the movement here.
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S&P 500 Forecast: September 2023
The S&P 500 has had a very noisy month for August, but at the end of the day, this is a market that is still in an uptrend. I think we’ve got a situation where we eventually take off to the outside based on the idea of the bullish flag that we are currently forming. It does not mean that it will necessarily be easy to hang on to the next move, but at the end of the day, the reality is that the market had a short-term pullback. It seems like we are turning around to show signs of life. If the market were to break to a fresh, new high, then the market is likely to continue to go looking toward the 4850 level, possibly followed by the 5000 level.
- Short-term pullback at this point certainly will be paying close attention to the 4330 level, an area that has offered a little bit of support.
- As long as we can say above there, I think the market continues to go higher, but even if we fell all the way down to the 4200 level, that is what I look at as the “bottom of the uptrend” going forward.
- Clearly, when traders come back from the summer break/holiday season, then it certainly makes quite a bit of sense that we would see volatility and momentum picked back up.
Further adding more interest to the 4200 level, we have the 50-Week EMA coming into the picture, so I think the market will look at that as a very important level as well. Either way, it looks like the S&P 500 is being driven higher, for no other reason than the fact that yields continue to drop. Pay close attention to the US treasury markets, because if yields continue to drive, that might be reason enough for stocks to go higher. We are through earnings season, so at this point there will be the next narrative to sell stocks to the public coming out of Wall Street. After all, that’s what Wall Street does, sells stocks to the public.
All things being equal, the bullish flag does suggest that we are going to go higher, so I still have quite a bit of interest in going long, so I might approach September more with a “buy on the dip” attitude. This of course assumes that we even get that opportunity.
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