Gold Could Be Poised for a Continuation Lower (10 June 2024)

• Gold violates bullish structure; prints a head and shoulders pattern
• Short-term risk is negative; confirmation signal awaited below 2,285

Gold has stabilized near May’s floor of 2,285 after losing more than 3.0% on Friday to mark its biggest daily loss in two years.

The price’s current lackluster performance indicates a probable bearish continuation, given its drop below the 20- and 50-day SMAs and beneath the significant trendline zone at 2,325. The technical indicators align with this narrative, as the RSI has dipped below its 50 neutral mark and the MACD has slipped below its zero line.

In the event that the 2,285 base crumbles, validating a bearish head and shoulders formation, selling momentum could escalate towards the 2,220 level. Falling lower, the price might retest the former constraining zone of 2,185 before plunging towards the ascending trendline, which connects the 2023 and 2024 lows at 2,145.

If the bulls resurface, they might encounter a new challenge in the caution zone between 2,325 and2,375. A decisive close above this bar could be a prerequisite for a rally back to the 2,410-2,430 zone. A victory there could lift the price as high as 2,500.

Summing up, the bears seem to be taking the lead in the gold market, with support expected to come next around the 2,220 number.

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XAUUSD: Key Economic Events This Week Eyed for Fresh Direction Signals (5 June 2024)

Gold price edges higher early Wednesday, bouncing off the floor of near term range and remaining without clear direction as markets await fresh signals from key economic events this week.

Conflicting technical indicators on daily chart contribute to near term sideways mode, though slight bullish bias to persist as long as the price stays above the top of thick daily Ichimoku cloud ($2324) which contained several attacks in past two weeks, marking significant support.

On the other hand, the price is weighed down by negative 14-d momentum and Tenkan/Kijun-sen bear cross.

US services PMI will be in focus today (f/c 49.4 Apr) and if May figure remains below 50 threshold, it will be positive signal for gold.

A series of reports from the US labor sector commenced with release of JOLTS job openings report on Tuesday (Apr figure dropped well below forecast / previous release and hit the lowest in over two years).

Markets await release of US ADP private sector payroll, due later today (173K f/c vs 192K Apr) and top economic event of the week – US nonfarm payrolls (due on Friday, May 185K f/c vs Apr 175K).

Overall stronger labor data would signal further delay in Fed’s first rate cut (probably to be shifted to November) and generate negative signal for the yellow metal, while signals of weakening US labor sector would add to expectations for the first rate cut in September, which would deflate dollar.

Look for initial direction signals on form break of daily cloud top ($2324 – bearish) od daily Kijun-sen / recent range top ($2363 – bullish).

Res: 2345; 2363; 2382; 2398.
Sup: 2324; 2300; 2272; 2222.

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XAUUSD #Gold Price Analysis: Gold Turns Bearish as the Dollar Strengthens (14 Feb 2024)

Gold prices drop below $2,000 due to a robust US dollar and unexpected inflation data, impacting market trends and forecasts. Key insights on gold’s struggle amid rising Treasury yields and the dollar’s strongest start in a decade.

• The US dollar’s gains rose this week after the announcement of a stronger US inflation numbers than expected, which supports the US central bank’s policy remaining dovish for a longer period.
• Accordingly, gold prices fell down with losses that reached the support level of $1,989 per ounce, which is the lowest price in two months.

Gold price XAU/USD fell below the psychological level of $2,000 for the first time in 2024, driven by a higher US dollar and higher Treasury yields fueled by hotter than expected US inflation data.

Overall, the price of the yellow metal struggled to build any momentum as the US dollar got off to its best start to a year in over a decade without any obvious triggers, gold prices could head below the $2,000 threshold for a while.

According to gold trading platforms, gold prices have fallen by 3.25% so far this year. As for the price of silver, which is the sister commodity to gold, it rose to about $22 per ounce. In general, the price of the white metal has decreased by more than 8% since the beginning of the year until now.

In general, the crash of gold prices began after the release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which was higher than expected in January. As the FX Daily report noted: “According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the annual inflation rate in the United States fell to 3.1% in January, down from 3.4% in December. This was higher than economists’ expectations of 2.9%. On a monthly basis, it rose CPI rose 0.3% higher than expected. Core inflation, which excludes volatile energy and food components, held steady at 3.9% year-on-year, beating market estimates of 3.7%. Core CPI rose 0.4%, also higher than expected Economists amounted to 0.3%.

But worse, the Fed’s preferred super inflation, which consists mostly of labour intensive services with the exception of housing and energy it rose 0.8% and rose about 4% over the year. This has led investors to abandon their hopes of cutting or control U.S. interest rates in upcoming May. Traders are now pricing in the first rate cut at the June FOMC meeting.

Inflation and delayed Reducing interest rates caused turmoil in Wall Street markets , Financial market indexes crashed , while U.S. Treasury and dollar yields rose. The US dollar index (DXY), a measure of the dollar against a basket of other major currencies, reached 105 Overall, the index has risen to nearly 4% since the beginning of the year.

Today’s gold price forecast:

According to the performance on the daily chart above, there has been a significant shift in the performance of the gold price XAU/USD by moving below the psychological level of $2,000 for the ounce and the next level to the top of $1985 for the ounce and from it. Technical indicators will move towards strong saturation levels by selling and I set the level for thinking about buying gold again but without risk as global geopolitical tensions continue to support the demand for gold bullion. Bulls’ control will be restored if prices return to $2025. I still prefer to buy gold from every downward level.

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#Gold Forecast: Continues to Look Toward Jackson Hole (25 Aug 2023)

To effectively engage in this market, it’s imperative to wait for momentum to build before committing to larger positions.

• The gold market displayed an initial attempt to rally during Thursday’s trading session, only to surrender those gains and exhibit a sense of indecision.
• Presently, it appears that the market is grappling with uncertainty in the lead-up to the Jackson Hole Symposium. This uncertainty could likely result in a session characterized by limited enthusiasm.
• The impending speeches from central bank figures like Jerome Powell and Christine Lagarde will undoubtedly guide market sentiment, ultimately leading to a decisive move.

Once this event concludes, a scenario might unfold where follow-through action becomes apparent. The current landscape suggests that the market will continue to experience significant volatility. Breaking above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) could signal an opportunity to target the $2000 price level. Conversely, a breach beneath the 200-day EMA might pave the way for a descent towards the $1900 level.

During these dynamics, the market is potentially forming a “double bottom” pattern, which could serve as a precursor to the impending price action. The candlestick pattern observed on Thursday exhibited a notably impulsive nature, a positive sign indicating a potential market turnaround and upward movement. Overall, this market remains exceptionally turbulent, urging cautious consideration of position sizes. It’s important to recognize that the market’s corrections often manifest vigorously, swiftly placing traders in unfavorable positions.

Be Prudent

To effectively engage in this market, it’s imperative to wait for momentum to build before committing to larger positions. Until that juncture is reached, a prudent approach is recommended. While an eventual boost for the gold market seems plausible, the caveat of Jerome Powell’s potential market impact must be kept in mind.

Ultimately, the recent behavior of the gold market reveals its attempt to initiate a rally followed by a hesitant retreat. The forthcoming Jackson Hole Symposium is poised to shape market dynamics, causing the current indecision to culminate in a significant move. Post-event, the market might offer follow-through opportunities, amid the ongoing backdrop of heightened volatility. The interplay between key moving averages suggests potential price targets. The formation of a “double bottom” and the impulsive nature of recent candlesticks further hint at the market’s trajectory. As this market tends to be turbulent, prudence in position sizing is vital. While eventual upward momentum is conceivable, the influence of Jerome Powell on market sentiment remains a factor to watch.

 

 

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Gold (XAUUSD) Price May Retest $1,789 Level Before Bullish Movement Continues : 17 July 2021

Gold Weekly Price Analysis – July 17

In case the Bears’ pressure increase and break down $1,818 level, price may decrease to the support levels at $1,789, $1,741 and $1,680. In case the bears could not break down $1,818 level, the price may continue to increase towards the resistance level at $1,845, then, $1,873 resistance level may be tested.

XAUUSD Market

Key levels:

Resistance levels: $1,818, $1,845, $1,873

Support levels: $1,789, $1,741, $1,680

XAUUSD Long-term Trend: Bullish

On the long-term outlook, Gold is bullish. The yellow metal started favoring the buyers after the formation of double bottom chart pattern. Strong daily bullish engulfing candle formed on July 05 triggers the price increase towards the $1,818 significant resistance level after it broke up the former resistance level of $1,789. The price experience fake breakout on July 14 at $1,818 price level. The Gold market was pulling back before weekly market closed.

Gold market closed with a strong bearish momentum below the $1,818 level and directly testing 9 periods EMA and 21 periods EMA as indicated on the daily chart; this indicate that the bears pulled back Gold price. In case the Bears’ pressure increase and break down $1,818 level, price may decrease to the support levels at $1,789, $1,741 and $1,680. In case the bears could not break down $1,818 level, the price may continue to increase towards the resistance level at $1,845, then, $1,873 resistance level may be tested.

XAUUSD Medium-term Trend: Bearish

Gold is on the bearish movement on the 4-hour chart. The bullish momentum was gradually interrupted by the bears slightly above the $1,818 price level. The bearish momentum has pushed the price below the two dynamic support levels. The price is heading towards the support level of $1,789 before Gold market closed.

Gold is trading below the 9 periods EMA and 21 periods EMA as an indication of a bearish market. The Relative Strength Index period 14 is at 40 levels with the signal line displaying sell signal which may be a pullback.

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