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Over the weekend, market makers were reading one of the most influential publications in the industry, Barronโs.
One of the article titles had a pretty eye-catching title and was a collection of opinions. The problem is that it had the words โimpending doomโ in reference to the US stock market.
The reality is that Barronโs is a bit late to the party. There has already been a lot of talk lately that US markets are headed for (if they are not already in) a correction.
This, of course, has important implications across all asset classes. Weโve already mentioned how September is generally the worst-performing month, but now the question is whether that will continue into October.
Whatโs up with the markets?
The benchmark S&P 500 reached its last high on September 9th and has been generally downhill since then. Itโs down a little under 2% for the month so far.
A pullback of a couple of percentage points is normal during a rising market, of course. But those tend to be followed by quick moves higher. Anyone who bought the dip in mid-September might be getting a little impatient.
The more stable DJIA has also been slipping during the same period, but its last high was in mid-August. The thing is, despite companies generally reporting higher sales numbers during the last earning season, since then, companies have started cutting their outlook for the rest of the year.
Most importantly have been the airlines, which have, on some occasions, cut their forecasts twice in a single month.
Whatโs going on?
There is the usual list of suspects to blame for the situation: the pending Fed taper, the rise in Delta cases, and concern about inflation.
Add to that the expectation that taxes are set to rise, and we get an increased regulatory burden. The problem is that the data now appears to be turning in a negative direction.
Economic growth is slowing, and the expected resolution of the labor shortage problem doesnโt appear to be resolving.
In fact, unless there is a major surprise to the upside in NFP, investors are likely to weigh in one of the primary drivers of stock weakness: margin compression.
Investors have been willing to ignore the issue temporarily given the covid situation. In fact, a short-term period of low profitability in a crisis is expected. But, eventually, the company needs to start making money.
Caught in the crossfire
Businesses are facing margin pressures from both sides.
On the bottom end, there are higher logistics costs plus labor shortages. On the top end, inflation erodes the real value of increased sales.
Rosy projections of increased revenue given in the first half of the year donโt look so good with inflation above 5.0%. Even if companies manage to raise prices, in many cases, itโs just breaking even in inflation-adjusted terms.
If the Fed pulls back its stimulus, itโs going to be harder and harder to justify investing in companies with increasingly higher P/E ratios.
So, it wouldnโt be surprising if talk of a correction keeps increasing for a while.
Eventually, if enough people believe it, it will happen by default. That is, of course, unless we get some unexpected good news over the coming days to contradict the general end-of-the-quarter doldrums.
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The Swiss franc weakens as markets expect growing policy divergence between the SNB and the Federal Reserve.
As the Swiss economy almost recovers to its pre-crisis level, keeping the franc from appreciating is a top priority for policymakers. SNB vice-chairman Fritz Zurbruegg has voiced the necessity to maintain the policy of negative interest rates.
While global markets have jittered over โtransitoryโ, the Swiss central bank has a greater incentive to use and abuse that keyword longer than their US counterpart would.
A break above 0.9270 would propel the pair to Aprilโs high at 0.9460. 0.9170 has become fresh support.
USDJPY bounces ahead of FOMC
The Japanese yen whipsawed as traders await major decisions from both central banks.
A drop in Japanโs covid cases and further progress in vaccinations may allow the BOJ to paint an optimistic picture. Other than that, the BOJ would deliver little surprise as inflationary pressures still lag behind the US and Europe.
On the other side of the Pacific, odds are better for a hawkish note from the FOMC. Rising prices continue to put the Fed officials on hot seats. An upbeat outlook could be enough to trigger the dollar bulls.
The pair may resume its rally once above110.70 with 109.00 as the immediate support.
GBPUSD goes sideways as the BOE is indecisive
The pound trades in a narrowing range as markets look for catalysts. The current consolidation looks like a staring contest between the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve.
The sterling still holds the high ground as traders expect the former to raise interest rates earlier. Inflation-wise, on top of supply bottlenecks major economies are facing, the UK has the unenviable task of having to deal with Brexit disruptions.
The pound would lift the psychological level of 1.4000 if an evenly split Monetary Policy Committee breaks the stalemate. Otherwise, the bulls will need to watch for a retest of the support at 1.3600.
SPX 500 steadies as sentiment resilient
The S&P 500 keeps on rolling as investors remain confident ahead of the Fed meeting.
While Augustโs retail numbers came out as a nice surprise, a rise in new claims for unemployment counterbalanced inflation pressures. However, the market has chosen to give the data the benefit of the doubt.
Despite volatility in the currency market, stock marketsโ relentless advance tells that a meaningful shift in monetary policy could be miles away. With so much at stake, a slight change in wind direction would trigger profit-takings.
The index is testing the rising trendline at 4440. A bounce would set 4600 as the next target.
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The US dollar initially tumbled after a minor drop in Augustโs core CPI. However, the pair can capitalize on strong buying interest from the trough near 0.9150.
A tentative break of Augustโs high at 0.9240 suggests that buyers are in control of price action. Though an overbought RSI has tempered the bullish drive, the latest pullback to 0.9180 can be an accumulation phase.
A rebound may lift bids to Julyโs high at 0.9275. A breach of that ceiling would attract momentum buying and resume the greenbackโs rally.
XAUUSD bounces off demand zone
Gold surged thanks to a decline in Treasury yields. The precious metal had met stiff selling pressure at the triple top (1830) from the daily chart.
Short-term sentiment has turned positive after a week-long consolidation above the demand area of 1780. The break above 1803 would prompt the bears to cover their bets. An overbought RSI may trigger a temporary pullback.
A rebound would challenge the critical level of 1830 once again, where a bullish breakout may resume the five-week-long rally.
US 30 breaks support
The Dow Jones 30 retreated as last monthโs US inflation remained above the Fedโs target. The index was bought out of the dip over the daily support at 34580.
The rebound turned out to be short-lived after a breakout invalidated this key floor. A bearish MA cross indicates that sentiment has become increasingly downbeat.
The psychological level (34000) from last July would be the next target. On the upside, 34950 is a fresh resistance where sellers would be eager to erase any rebound.
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Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) is reportedly seeking to raise around $750 million from its drilling unitโs initial public offering (IPO) in what is expected to be one of the biggest share sales in the United Arab Emirates.
The Middle Eastโs biggest drilling firm, Adnoc Drilling, has already set the price for its listing at 2.30 dirhams per share, which implies an equity value of $10 billion. This offering will represent 1.2 billion shares (around 7.5%) of the firm. Nonetheless, Adnoc Drilling has stated that it might increase the amount of stock available.
This offering comes amid a push by Abu Dhabi to revive initial public offerings on its stock exchange. The ADX is now offering a range of additional incentives, including some promises to reduce or waive listing fees and flexibility on the minimum stake size required for share sales.
On its part, Adnoc Drilling has also started preparations for a possible IPO of its fertilizer joint venture Fertiglobe with sovereign wealth fund ADQ aiming to list Abu Dhabi Ports by the end of this year.
The UAE is the third-biggest producer in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and has managed to use its oil wealth to expand and diversify its economy. The United Arab Emirates has managed to diversify successfully into tourism and has developed global transport and trade hubs.
Nevertheless, these industries suffered throughout 2021 as the coronavirus pandemic caused major declines in international travel, cut energy use, and blocked trade flows.
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Bears interrupted the bulls at $24 price level, price decreases towards the support levels of $22, after penetrates $23 price level, barrier can be found at $21 and $19 price levels. In case $22 price level holds, price may reverse and face the resistance levels at $23, $24 and $25.
XAGUSD Market
Key Levels:
Resistance levels: $23, $24, $25
Support levels: $22, $21, $19
XAGUSD Long-term trend: Bearish
On the long-term outlook, XAGUSD is bearish. The Silver market played against the expectation of many traders last week. It was the belief of many traders that Silver price will increase above $24 level but the Dollar strength increased last week and the Silver price dropped. On 06 September, an evening star chart pattern formed followed with strong daily candles, the price declines below $23 support level. Further price declination envisaged.
The fast moving Average (9 periods EMA) is bending towards the slow moving Average (21 periods EMA). Silver is trading below the 9 periods EMA and 21 periods EMA which is an indication that bears are dominating the market. Bears interrupted the bulls at $24 price level, price decreases towards the support levels of $22, after penetrates $23 price level, barrier can be found at $21 and $19 price levels. In case $22 price level holds, price may reverse and face the resistance levels at $23, $24 and $25.
XAGUSD Medium-term Trend: Bearish
XAGUSD is on the bearish movement on 4-hour chart. Silver metal was interrupted at the $24 price level, there was a brief price consolidation at the just mentioned level. The bears gained more pressure and the price decline to break down the support level of $23 before market closed.
Silver price is trading below the 9 periods EMA and 21 periods EMA. The Relative Strength Index period 14 is below 40 levels with the signal line displaying strong bearish direction.
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Rehana William |Financial Consultant _Forex_Gold Xauusd| Fund Manager 