Fundamental Analysis & Market Sentiment
- Long of the S&P 500 Index following a daily close above 5265. This set up at close on Wednesday and produced a loss of 0.02%.
- Long of Gold following a daily close above $2400. This did not set up until the end of the week.
- Long of Silver following a daily close above $29.00. This set up on Wednesday and produced a win of 6.16%.
The overall result was a net win of 6.14%, resulting in a win of 2.05% per asset.
Last week’s key takeaway was the strong resumption of risk-on sentiment due to lower-than-expected US CPI (inflation), which fell from 3.5% annualized to 3.4% as expected. The dovish surprise was in the monthly increase, which was only 0.3% and not the 0.4% which was expected.
It is worth noting that markets were beginning to become weakly risk-on earlier in the week before this data release, which suggests an underlying bullishness in stock markets, perhaps driven by stronger than expected corporate earnings in the USA seen over recent weeks. Anyway, the lower US inflation data sent major indices rising to new highs. This is not only happening in the USA, but also to several major global equity indices. The MSCI World Index reached a new record high last week.
There were two other highly important US data releases last week. PPI came in notably higher than expected, with markets expecting a monthly increase of 0.3% but getting 0.5%. This stoked fears on Tuesday that the CPI data the following data would be high, which turned out not to be true. Retail Sales data showed no increase at all over the past month, which boosted the effect of the lower CPI data in raising the chance of an earlier rate hike.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, about 68% expect the first rate cut to happen at the Fed’s September meeting.
Other important data releases last week were:
- US Empire State Manufacturing Index – about as expected.
- US Unemployment Claims – about as expected.
- Australia Wage Price Index – just a fraction lower than expected, which is very slightly dovish for inflation and rates.
- New Zealand Inflation Expectations – fell from 2.50% to 2.33%, which is dovish.
- UK Claimant Count Change – slightly better than expected.
- Australia Unemployment Rate – rose unexpectedly from 4.1% to 3.9% which may be slightly dovish for inflation and rates.
Gold
The price of Gold rose strongly last week, printing a bullish candlestick which closed near its high. It is worth noting that the price did not make a new high, although the weekly close was a record high.
Overall, we see bullish signs, but the price is not trading in “blue sky”. Note also that Silver outperformed Gold last week and has looked more bullish than Gold for a while longer than that.
Another bullish factor for Gold is the strength in major stock markets, many of which are rising to new record highs. Gold, contrary to widespread belief, is positively correlated with stock markets.
I think Gold looks like a buy right now, although more conservative traders might want to see a New York close above the record high at $2431 before entering.
Silver
The price of Silver rose very strongly last week, printing the largest bullish candlestick seen in years. The candlestick closed very near the high of its range, which is a bullish sign. There is no doubt there is strong bullish momentum here, but over the long and short term.
Silver is trading in blue sky now at a new 11-year high price, well above the major round number at $30.
Another bullish factor for Silver is the strength in major stock markets, many of which are rising to new record highs. Gold, contrary to widespread belief, is positively correlated with stock markets.
I think Silver looks like a strong buy immediately.
S&P 500 Index
After making a fairly deep bearish retracement in April following new all-time highs, the S&P 500 Index rose again last week to again break into new record territory.
There is a small upper wick, but the key things to note are that the weekly close was above the previous record high, and that the wick is nothing out of the ordinary.
It makes sense to be bullish on this major stock market index when it is rising firmly to make new record highs. Historic precedent shows this tends to produce further gains quickly.
It is worth noting that this index is outperforming the NASDAQ 100 Index, suggesting a broad market rally driven by higher than expected earnings outside the tech sector.
I see the S&P 500 Index as a buy.
NASDAQ 100 Index
After making a fairly deep bearish retracement in April following new all-time highs, the NASDAQ 100 Index rose again last week to again break into new record territory.
There is a small upper wick, but the key things to note are that the weekly close was above the previous record high, and that the wick is nothing out of the ordinary.
It makes sense to be bullish on this major stock market index when it is rising firmly to make new record highs. Historic precedent shows this tends to produce further gains quickly.
However, it is worth noting that this index is underperforming the broader S&P 500 Index, suggesting that the performance here could be relatively weak as it is more of a wide market rally than a tech-driven one.
I therefore see the NASDAQ 100 Index as a buy, but only after a daily close above the record high at 18613.
DAX
The German index initially tried to rally during the week but gave back gains as we continue to see a little bit of noise in general. That being said, Friday did show a significant amount of support, and I think this suggest that there are plenty of buyers underneath, so you certainly want to follow the trend, meaning that you want to be a buyer overall. I have no interest in shorting the DAX and do believe that we eventually get to the €20,000 level over the longer term. Buying on the dips is my favorite strategy here.
Bottom Line
I see the best trading opportunities this week as follows:
- Long of the S&P 500 Index.
- Long of the NASDAQ 100 Index following a daily close above 18613.
- Long of Gold.
- Long of Silver.
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