#WTI #CrudeOil Weekly Forecast: Push Higher Falters and Mid-Term Lows Sighted (3 June 2024)

WTI Crude Oil saw the 80.000 USD level penetrated upwards on Wednesday of last week, only to falter and then begin a rather steady push lower.

• The price of WTI Crude Oil this week will begin trading near the 77.120 mark, this after touching a depth around the 76.640 ratio this past Friday.
• The ability to trade downwards and come within sight of values seen the previous Friday while testing mid-terms lows could prove to be significant.
• However, before traders rush into to say the dominant trend is downwards, they should acknowledge that a run higher early last week in WTI Crude Oil achieved a high of nearly 80.590 on Wednesday.

The incremental move higher starting last week only to run into headwinds after month long resistance was tested is noteworthy. Also of importance is that OPEC will be conducting a meeting today to discuss pricing and production. WTI Crude Oil’s ability to move back to mid-term lows before the oil conference will spark intrigue and concerns in the minds of speculators.

Support Levels and Early Trading in WTI Crude Oil this Week

Large players in WTI Crude Oil will react immediately to news coming from OPEC later today and early tomorrow. There should be no doubt that OPEC would like to see a stable price that floats near higher ratios. Their decisions regarding production levels will certainly affect sentiment. The consideration that WTI Crude Oil is near the lower elements of its healthy price range may mean that OPEC continues production at its current levels. However, I have no inside knowledge. Wagering on what OPEC says is best left to insiders.

From a fundamental standpoint demand and supply remain balanced in WTI Crude Oil. The U.S economy is showing signs of slowing down and this may curtail some usage, but it should not be counted upon. The ability of WTI Crude Oil to remain within sight of the 77.000 price is important and early trading Monday should be monitored intently. One consideration for day traders to lean upon may be the notion that it is highly unlikely that OPEC will say anything which will cause weakness in the price of WTI Crude Oil. They do not want to hurt the price of their commodity.

Early Reactions in WTI Crude Oil on Monday

If WTI Crude Oil creates price velocity early on Monday this would be interesting and it would likely be to the upside, and then potentially run into resistance which could create an opportunity for day traders to look for opportunities. However, if Crude Oil were to trade lower early tomorrow this could signal that traders who have been leaning towards bearish sentiment may believe there is more room to explore downwards, this if OPEC hasn’t said anything noteworthy which gives sellers concerns.

• If the price of WTI Crude Oil falls below 77.000 early on Monday and sustains value below this could be a signal selling sentiment remains strong and lower depths could be tested.
• If WTI Crude Oil opens with strong buying day traders are advised to stay on the sidelines and look for resistance to be approached technically and then consider selling for quick hitting lower moves.

WTI Crude Oil Weekly Outlook:

Speculative price range for WTI Crude Oil is 75.80 to 80.600

Traders will certainly have to be on the lookout for a surprising statement from OPEC which creates velocity in WTI Crude Oil which is always a danger after their conferences. Yet, if news remains calm and no new developments cause massive reactions, the price of WTI Crude Oil should remain with its current speculative price range.

The move downwards at the end of last week after achieving highs is interesting and may indicate bearish sentiment remains a bit stronger than buyers at this time. Traders looking for lower movement that challenges anything penetrating the 76.000 level may be too ambitious, but the reaction early on Monday and into Tuesday after the OPEC meeting outcome is announced will certainly be important impetus and could cause new dynamics.

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#Gold AND #Crude #Oil Forecast (17 Aug 2023)

Gold Forecast: Looking for Buyers to Pick It Up

 

• Currently, the gold market’s gaze is firmly fixed on a pivotal target: breaching the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average, strategically positioned near the $1965 mark.
• The successful attainment of this milestone could potentially pave the way for an upward journey toward the significant threshold of $2000.
• Beyond its numerical value, this level carries profound significance as a critical juncture, capable of steering broader market trends.

Conversely, a descent below the 200-Day EMA introduces the possibility of a downward trajectory, setting sights on the $1900 support level. A breach of this foundation might catalyze further movement towards the well-established $1800 range, historically proven as a reliable support zone. It’s paramount, however, to contextualize these potential movements within the broader performance of the US dollar and prevailing trends within the bond market. Heightened bond yields, in particular, could pose challenges for gold, exerting potential influence over its overall performance.

The present phase, colloquially known as the “dead of summer” due to the holiday lull, could contribute to muted trading volumes. This aspect might contribute to a relatively subdued level of market activity, subsequently tempering the extent of price fluctuations.

A Bullish Trend Might Emerge

Adopting a wider perspective, the notable participation of central banks as significant gold buyers introduces a stabilizing element to the market. While rapid surges remain uncertain, the concept of a gradual upward trajectory gains prominence. A bullish trend might emerge, albeit in a cautious and incremental manner. It’s worth highlighting that this outlook aligns well with long-term investment strategies, particularly given the unique dynamics characteristic of the month of August.

In summation, the recent path traced by the gold market underscores the intricate interplay of technical signals, global market dynamics, and seasonal cadences. Aiming to surpass the 50-Day EMA and striving for the $2000 milestone signifies a pivotal endeavor. However, the prospect of declines leading to explorations of lower support levels must also be judiciously factored in. External variables, encompassing the US dollar’s fluctuations and bond yield movements, remain pivotal determinants. Ultimately, the consistent role of central banks as gold purchasers introduces a stabilizing thread. Despite the gradual tempo, the potential for a positive trajectory over the long haul remains viable. Investors are well-advised to strike a delicate equilibrium between optimism and prudent risk management, skillfully navigating the evolving landscape of the gold market.

 

 

Crude Oil Forecast: Continues to See Noisy but Positive Action Overall

 

In essence, the outlook for crude oil remains a nuanced interplay of technical signals, psychological price levels, and the intricate balance between supply and demand.

• In the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil market, Wednesday’s trading session portrayed a sense of stability, with the $80 level underneath acting as a psychological bulwark.
• Notably, the impending crossover of the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average above the 200-Day EMA is setting the stage for a “golden cross” signal—an occurrence keenly observed by technical traders.

The recent retracement from the $85 level appears logical, considering the historical significance attached to it and the psychological impact of such round numbers. A successful breach above this level could potentially pave the way for a march towards $90. Broadly, the 200-Day EMA assumes a role in underpinning the market as support.

The Brent market also witnessed an initial retreat during the session, but signs of resurgence are evident. This suggests that the market is poised to maintain its characteristic choppy behavior while treading a general upward trajectory. Over time, an attempt to surpass the $87.50 level seems likely, opening avenues for further advancement toward $90. Beneath this, the 200-Day EMA near $82.60 forms a solid support threshold, providing a foundational base. With this, I will be watching closely to see if we get to that level. Anything below it, and the market could unravel quite rapidly.

Be Prudent

Notably, the Brent market, much like its WTI counterpart, is inching closer to forming a “golden cross.” This convergence is reasonable considering that price stickiness is expected, primarily attributed to OPEC’s production cuts and Saudi Arabia’s dedicated efforts to maintain elevated prices. Saudi Arabia’s voluntary cut of 1 million barrels per day underscores their commitment. Amid this landscape, supply dynamics, rather than demand, are poised to play a pivotal role in influencing the crude oil market. All factors considered, brace for an environment characterized by substantial volatility and fluctuations.

In essence, the outlook for crude oil remains a nuanced interplay of technical signals, psychological price levels, and the intricate balance between supply and demand. The stability witnessed around key price points and the anticipation of “golden crosses” underscore the complex dynamics at play. Amidst OPEC’s production strategies and the broader global economic context, traders should anticipate a market environment characterized by considerable noise. As technical signals align with market fundamentals, astute traders must exercise a prudent approach, employing careful risk management to navigate this intricate landscape.

 

 

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#CrudeOil Price Recovery Won’t Be Easy, Hurdles Nearby (28 April 2022)

Key Highlights

• Crude oil price found support near $95.50 and corrected higher.
• It broke a key bearish trend line with resistance near $100.10 on the 4-hours chart.
• Gold price could extend losses below $1,890 and $1,880.
• The US GDP could grow 1.1% in Q1 2022 (Prelim), down from 6.9%.

Crude Oil Price Technical Analysis

After facing rejection near $109.55, crude oil price started a fresh decline against the US Dollar. The price traded below the $105 support to move into a short-term bearish zone.

 

 

Looking at the 4-hours chart of XTI/USD, the price traded below the $100 support, the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hours), and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hours).

It traded as low as $95.56 before the bulls appeared. The price started an upside correction above the $98 and $99 levels. There was also a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance near $100.10 on the same chart.

However, the price faced resistance near $102.50 and the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $109.55 swing high to $95.56 low.

The main resistance on the upside is near the $104.20 level. A clear move above the $104.20 resistance zone could open the doors for a steady move towards the $110 resistance level. The next major resistance might be near the $115 level.

If there is no upside break, the price could start another decline below $98. The next major support is near $95.50, below which there is a risk of a move towards the $93.25 level. Any more losses might call for a test of the $85 support.

Looking at the gold price, the bears remained active below the $1,920 level. A close below $1,890 and $1,880 might spark a sharp decline.

Economic Releases to Watch Today

• German Consumer Price Index for April 2022 (YoY)
• German Consumer Price Index for April 2022 (MoM)
• US Gross Domestic Product for Q1 2022 (Preliminary)

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#GOLD(XAUUSD) AND #CRUDEOIL Technical Outlook and Review (25 March 2022)

XAU/USD (GOLD):

On the weekly, prices are on bullish momentum. We see the potential for a bounce from our 1st support at 1918.399 in line with 127.2% FIbonacci extension towards our 1st resistance at 1990.287 in line with 61.8% FIbonacci retracement. Prices are trading above our ichimoku clouds, further supporting our bullish bias. On the daily, prices are on bullish momentum and abiding by our ascending trendline support. We see the potential for bullish continuation from our 1st support at 1910.521 in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement towards our 1st resistance at 2007.742 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci Projection. Prices are trading above our ichimoku cloud support, further supporting our bullish bias. On the H4, prices are on bearish momentum and approaching a key pivot. We see the potential for a dip from our 1st resistance at 1949.865 which is an area of Fibonacci confluences towards our 1st support at 1940.587 in line with 23.6% Fibonacci Retracementand also graphical overlap. Prices are trading below our ichimoku clouds, further supporting our bearish bias.

Areas of consideration:

• 4h 1st support at 1940.587
• 4h 1st resistance at 1949.865

 

 

OIL:

On the weekly, with price moving above the ichimoku cloud, we have a bias that price will rise to our 1st resistance from our 1st support. Alternatively, price may break 1st support structure and head for 2nd support.

On the Daily, with price moving above the ichimoku cloud, we have a bias that price will rise to our 1st resistance from our 1st support. Alternatively, price may break 1st support structure and head for 2nd support.

On the H4, with price moving above the ichimoku cloud, we have a bias that price will rise to our 1st resistance at 130.46 in line with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement from our 1st support at 113.66 in line with the horizontal overlap support and 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. Alternatively, price may break 1st support structure and head for 2nd support at 102.53 in line with the horizontaL overlap support and 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.

Areas of consideration:

• H4 time frame, 1st resistance of 130.46
• H4 time frame, 1st support of 113.66

 

 

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Intraday Market Analysis – USD Consolidates Gains,XAGUSD to test critical ceiling and SPX 500 tests all-time high(22 October 2021)

USDJPY seeks support

The US dollar steadies over lower-than-expected initial jobless claims.

Sentiment remains upbeat, however, the pair is struggling to climb past the psychological level of 115.00, probably due to overextension. The RSI’s double top in the overbought area and bearish divergence suggests that the rally could be losing steam.

A breach below 113.90 would prompt weaker hands to exit, leading to a pullback towards 113.00. A rebound past the said resistance would send the price to March 2017’s high of 115.40.

XAGUSD to test critical ceiling

Silver stalls as the greenback reclaims some lost ground. The break above the round number of 24.00 indicates strong commitment from the buy-side.

The bulls are looking at the major resistance at 24.80 from the daily timeframe, as a breakout would end a five-month-long correction and pave the way for a bullish reversal.

However, an overbought RSI coupled with a bearish divergence suggests possible exhaustion in the run-up. 23.60 would be the first level to watch for if the price pulls lower in search of support.

SPX 500 tests all-time high

The S&P 500 flies high supported by better-than-expected third-quarter earnings. The index has reached the previous all-time high at 4550.

A breakout may trigger a runaway rally. Nonetheless, a repeatedly overbought RSI may cause a limited pullback as buyers take profit.

A drop below the immediate support at 4515 would pull the trigger. 4445 would be next as it coincides with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the October rally. The bulls are likely to buy the dips though after sentiment turns optimistic.

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Crude Oil Price Hits New 7-Year High, Gold Struggles and Economic Releases to Watch Today (06 October 2021)

Key Highlights

• Crude oil price started a fresh rally above $75.00 and $78.00.
• It broke a key contracting triangle at $76.25 on the 4-hours chart of XTI/USD.
• The US ISM Services PMI increased from 61.7 to 61.9 in Sep 2021.
• The US ADP employment could change 428K in Sep 2021, up from the last 374K.

Crude Oil Price Technical Analysis

After trading close to $76.50, crude oil price corrected lower against the US Dollar. However, the price found support near $73.25 and started a fresh increase.

Looking at the 4-hours chart of XTI/USD, the price broke many hurdles near $75.00 to start a fresh increase. There was also a break above a key contracting triangle at $76.25 on the same chart.

The price settled above the $78.00 level, the 100 simple moving average (4-hours, red) and the 200 simple moving average (4-hours, green). It even traded to a new 7-year high above $79.50.

On the upside, an initial resistance is near the $80.50 level. The next major resistance is near the $82.50 level, above which the price could rise towards the $85.00 level.

An immediate support on the downside is near the $77.80 level. The first major support is near $76.20. Any more losses could open the doors for a move towards the $75.00 support.

Fundamentally, the US ISM Services Index was released yesterday by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). The market was looking for a drop from 61.7 to 60 in Sep 2021.

However, the actual result was positive, as the US ISM Services PMI increased from 61.7 to 61.9 in Sep 2021. Besides, the US ISM Services New Orders Index increased from 63.2 to 62.3.

Looking at EUR/USD, the pair failed to recover above 1.1650 and it remains at a risk of more downsides. Besides, GBP/USD is showing positive signs above 1.3550.

Economic Releases to Watch Today

• Euro Zone Retail Sales for August 2021 (YoY) – Forecast +0.4%, versus +3.1% previous.
• Euro Zone Retail Sales for August 2021 (MoM) – Forecast +0.8%, versus -2.3% previous.
• US ADP Employment Change for Sep 2021 – Forecast 428K, versus 374K previous.

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Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) Seeks In Drilling Unit IPO

Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) is reportedly seeking to raise around $750 million from its drilling unit’s initial public offering (IPO) in what is expected to be one of the biggest share sales in the United Arab Emirates.

The Middle East’s biggest drilling firm, Adnoc Drilling, has already set the price for its listing at 2.30 dirhams per share, which implies an equity value of $10 billion. This offering will represent 1.2 billion shares (around 7.5%) of the firm. Nonetheless, Adnoc Drilling has stated that it might increase the amount of stock available.

This offering comes amid a push by Abu Dhabi to revive initial public offerings on its stock exchange. The ADX is now offering a range of additional incentives, including some promises to reduce or waive listing fees and flexibility on the minimum stake size required for share sales.

On its part, Adnoc Drilling has also started preparations for a possible IPO of its fertilizer joint venture Fertiglobe with sovereign wealth fund ADQ aiming to list Abu Dhabi Ports by the end of this year.

The UAE is the third-biggest producer in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and has managed to use its oil wealth to expand and diversify its economy. The United Arab Emirates has managed to diversify successfully into tourism and has developed global transport and trade hubs.

Nevertheless, these industries suffered throughout 2021 as the coronavirus pandemic caused major declines in international travel, cut energy use, and blocked trade flows.

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Oil Futures Lose Ground as Economic Recovery Weakens (6 September 2021)

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures dropped by 0.78% yesterday, closing the session at the 68.75 level and losing ground for the second consecutive day. Similiarly, Brent oil futures fell by 0.79% during the session, closing at the 72.04 level and dropping for the second consecutive day.

Oilhas been tumbling mainly because there have been signs of a weak economic recovery now that the delta variant is spreading and governments are imposing restrictions on economic and social activities.

The fact that Saudi Aramco announced on Sunday that it will cut October prices for Asia, which is a sign that global markets are well supplied, also caused negative pressure in the markets. Many interpret this as an attempt to compete on price with other oil producers and increase the company’s market share.

Despite this, Hurricane Ida has caused US supply to be limited. According to the U.S. Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE), 93% of crude oil production, which is about 1.7 million barrels per day, and 86% of natural gas output, or 1.9 billion cubic feet per day, are currently shut down due to power shortages in the Gulf of Mexico. The storm also caused an oil spill in the gulf, the source of which is believed to be in the Bay Marchand area.

Previously, OPEC+ had been hiking oil output gradually, as oil demand was recovering due to improving economic conditions. Most recently, the coalition decided to continue raising overall production by 400,000 barrels a day each month since August, and to raise its forecast for crude demand next year. This decision is in line with calls by the United States to boost supply, now that it is dealing with increasing gas prices in its domestic market.

As previously mentioned, the outlook for this market remains uncertain given the spread of the highly transmissible delta variant. Since the beginning of the week, 221,561,517 cases have been reported across the world, including 4,582,081 related deaths. So far, 5.46 billion COVID-19 vaccine doses have been distributed among the global population, with 2.17 billion people now fully vaccinated, accounting for 27.8% of the population.

By 7:47 GMT, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures dropped by 1.10% to the 68.50 level, followed by Brent oil futures, which fell by 1.10% to the 71.84 level.

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