#WTI #CrudeOil Weekly Forecast: Push Higher Falters and Mid-Term Lows Sighted (3 June 2024)

WTI Crude Oil saw the 80.000 USD level penetrated upwards on Wednesday of last week, only to falter and then begin a rather steady push lower.

• The price of WTI Crude Oil this week will begin trading near the 77.120 mark, this after touching a depth around the 76.640 ratio this past Friday.
• The ability to trade downwards and come within sight of values seen the previous Friday while testing mid-terms lows could prove to be significant.
• However, before traders rush into to say the dominant trend is downwards, they should acknowledge that a run higher early last week in WTI Crude Oil achieved a high of nearly 80.590 on Wednesday.

The incremental move higher starting last week only to run into headwinds after month long resistance was tested is noteworthy. Also of importance is that OPEC will be conducting a meeting today to discuss pricing and production. WTI Crude Oil’s ability to move back to mid-term lows before the oil conference will spark intrigue and concerns in the minds of speculators.

Support Levels and Early Trading in WTI Crude Oil this Week

Large players in WTI Crude Oil will react immediately to news coming from OPEC later today and early tomorrow. There should be no doubt that OPEC would like to see a stable price that floats near higher ratios. Their decisions regarding production levels will certainly affect sentiment. The consideration that WTI Crude Oil is near the lower elements of its healthy price range may mean that OPEC continues production at its current levels. However, I have no inside knowledge. Wagering on what OPEC says is best left to insiders.

From a fundamental standpoint demand and supply remain balanced in WTI Crude Oil. The U.S economy is showing signs of slowing down and this may curtail some usage, but it should not be counted upon. The ability of WTI Crude Oil to remain within sight of the 77.000 price is important and early trading Monday should be monitored intently. One consideration for day traders to lean upon may be the notion that it is highly unlikely that OPEC will say anything which will cause weakness in the price of WTI Crude Oil. They do not want to hurt the price of their commodity.

Early Reactions in WTI Crude Oil on Monday

If WTI Crude Oil creates price velocity early on Monday this would be interesting and it would likely be to the upside, and then potentially run into resistance which could create an opportunity for day traders to look for opportunities. However, if Crude Oil were to trade lower early tomorrow this could signal that traders who have been leaning towards bearish sentiment may believe there is more room to explore downwards, this if OPEC hasn’t said anything noteworthy which gives sellers concerns.

• If the price of WTI Crude Oil falls below 77.000 early on Monday and sustains value below this could be a signal selling sentiment remains strong and lower depths could be tested.
• If WTI Crude Oil opens with strong buying day traders are advised to stay on the sidelines and look for resistance to be approached technically and then consider selling for quick hitting lower moves.

WTI Crude Oil Weekly Outlook:

Speculative price range for WTI Crude Oil is 75.80 to 80.600

Traders will certainly have to be on the lookout for a surprising statement from OPEC which creates velocity in WTI Crude Oil which is always a danger after their conferences. Yet, if news remains calm and no new developments cause massive reactions, the price of WTI Crude Oil should remain with its current speculative price range.

The move downwards at the end of last week after achieving highs is interesting and may indicate bearish sentiment remains a bit stronger than buyers at this time. Traders looking for lower movement that challenges anything penetrating the 76.000 level may be too ambitious, but the reaction early on Monday and into Tuesday after the OPEC meeting outcome is announced will certainly be important impetus and could cause new dynamics.

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Crude #Oil Weekly Forecast: After Touching Highs a Slight Reversal Lower (25-29 March 2024)

WTI Crude Oil had a rather interesting week of trading as it produced highs not been seen since the first week of November, but then a slight downturn was demonstrated.

• WTI Crude Oil will start this week of trading slightly below its starting point on last Monday.
• However the commodity went into the weekend near the 80.630 level which remains within sight of important long-term resistance.
• WTI Crude Oil touched a high of nearly 83.130 on Tuesday, but then began to produce an incremental reversal lower.

The lows in Crude Oil last week were seen on Thursday and Friday when a price of 80.200 was challenged on the 21st. Perhaps of interest for technical traders is the acknowledgement that Friday’s lows only hit the 80.300 vicinity before sparking some upwards momentum. The price of WTI Crude Oil remains elevated when one and three month charts are being examined. Six month technical charts show the commodity is now within sight of important resistance which must be taken into consideration.

WTI Crude Oil Production and Supply

WTI Crude Oil supply in the U.S showed a two million barrel shortfall last week, but this didn’t cause a higher rupture higher in price. In fact the value of WTI Crude Oil had seen its highs the day before. Yes, experienced traders may cynically say ‘insiders’ created selling positions after the highs were hit on Tuesday to take advantage of the potential shortfall in inventory.

WTI Crude Oil has created a bullish trend which has seen an upswing in price, including normal reversals lower, since the middle of December. Last week’s ability to touch highs was important, but the lower moves afterwards also shows that speculative buying is not hitting a critical mass, in other words the price upwards has been attained in a rather polite manner. In commodity trading ‘polite’ climbs upwards often mean there may be more upside to be found.

Support Early This Week Should Get Attention

If WTI Crude Oil maintains support levels above the 80.000 USD mark early this week it may prove to be significant. The last time the commodity traded below the 80.000 ratio was on the 15th of March. This past Friday WTI Crude Oil did manage to climb from its lows seen earlier in the day and trade above the 81.000 level, but as the weekend approached selling did seem to weigh upon the commodity.

• Global supply of Crude Oil remains efficient, while Red Sea shipping continues to be hampered; producers and buyers have not created a spike higher based on fear.
• WTI Crude Oil still remains within a rather well behaved price range which has not produced massive volatility. Last weeks’ highs were accomplished in a rather comfortable manner as the 83.000 USD mark was penetrated briefly.

WTI Crude Oil Weekly Outlook:

Speculative price range for WTI Crude Oil is 78.100 to 83.700

The upwards trend in WTI Crude Oil still needs to be given some respect from traders. Last week’s early highs and developing downturn are of interest; early trading this coming week will prove important technically. The 80.000 USD support level in WTI Crude Oil likely needs to prove durable, this for day traders who remain with a bullish outlook and want to continue pursuing upwards momentum taking into account the trading results demonstrated the past couple of weeks.

A sustained move above the 81.300 mark early and maintained into Tuesday would mean bullish sentiment is still lingering and could retest highs seen last week quickly. However, if WTI Crude Oil breaks below the 80.000 USD ratio and sees sustained trading below early this week and into Tuesday, this could open the door for the impression the commodity has some room to venture lower. Support near the 79.250 mark should be watched if a test emerges. Trading below this number technically looks like it could create price velocity lower which could ignite a test of the 88.000 vicinity.

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#Gold AND #Crude #Oil Forecast (17 Aug 2023)

Gold Forecast: Looking for Buyers to Pick It Up

 

• Currently, the gold market’s gaze is firmly fixed on a pivotal target: breaching the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average, strategically positioned near the $1965 mark.
• The successful attainment of this milestone could potentially pave the way for an upward journey toward the significant threshold of $2000.
• Beyond its numerical value, this level carries profound significance as a critical juncture, capable of steering broader market trends.

Conversely, a descent below the 200-Day EMA introduces the possibility of a downward trajectory, setting sights on the $1900 support level. A breach of this foundation might catalyze further movement towards the well-established $1800 range, historically proven as a reliable support zone. It’s paramount, however, to contextualize these potential movements within the broader performance of the US dollar and prevailing trends within the bond market. Heightened bond yields, in particular, could pose challenges for gold, exerting potential influence over its overall performance.

The present phase, colloquially known as the “dead of summer” due to the holiday lull, could contribute to muted trading volumes. This aspect might contribute to a relatively subdued level of market activity, subsequently tempering the extent of price fluctuations.

A Bullish Trend Might Emerge

Adopting a wider perspective, the notable participation of central banks as significant gold buyers introduces a stabilizing element to the market. While rapid surges remain uncertain, the concept of a gradual upward trajectory gains prominence. A bullish trend might emerge, albeit in a cautious and incremental manner. It’s worth highlighting that this outlook aligns well with long-term investment strategies, particularly given the unique dynamics characteristic of the month of August.

In summation, the recent path traced by the gold market underscores the intricate interplay of technical signals, global market dynamics, and seasonal cadences. Aiming to surpass the 50-Day EMA and striving for the $2000 milestone signifies a pivotal endeavor. However, the prospect of declines leading to explorations of lower support levels must also be judiciously factored in. External variables, encompassing the US dollar’s fluctuations and bond yield movements, remain pivotal determinants. Ultimately, the consistent role of central banks as gold purchasers introduces a stabilizing thread. Despite the gradual tempo, the potential for a positive trajectory over the long haul remains viable. Investors are well-advised to strike a delicate equilibrium between optimism and prudent risk management, skillfully navigating the evolving landscape of the gold market.

 

 

Crude Oil Forecast: Continues to See Noisy but Positive Action Overall

 

In essence, the outlook for crude oil remains a nuanced interplay of technical signals, psychological price levels, and the intricate balance between supply and demand.

• In the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil market, Wednesday’s trading session portrayed a sense of stability, with the $80 level underneath acting as a psychological bulwark.
• Notably, the impending crossover of the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average above the 200-Day EMA is setting the stage for a “golden cross” signal—an occurrence keenly observed by technical traders.

The recent retracement from the $85 level appears logical, considering the historical significance attached to it and the psychological impact of such round numbers. A successful breach above this level could potentially pave the way for a march towards $90. Broadly, the 200-Day EMA assumes a role in underpinning the market as support.

The Brent market also witnessed an initial retreat during the session, but signs of resurgence are evident. This suggests that the market is poised to maintain its characteristic choppy behavior while treading a general upward trajectory. Over time, an attempt to surpass the $87.50 level seems likely, opening avenues for further advancement toward $90. Beneath this, the 200-Day EMA near $82.60 forms a solid support threshold, providing a foundational base. With this, I will be watching closely to see if we get to that level. Anything below it, and the market could unravel quite rapidly.

Be Prudent

Notably, the Brent market, much like its WTI counterpart, is inching closer to forming a “golden cross.” This convergence is reasonable considering that price stickiness is expected, primarily attributed to OPEC’s production cuts and Saudi Arabia’s dedicated efforts to maintain elevated prices. Saudi Arabia’s voluntary cut of 1 million barrels per day underscores their commitment. Amid this landscape, supply dynamics, rather than demand, are poised to play a pivotal role in influencing the crude oil market. All factors considered, brace for an environment characterized by substantial volatility and fluctuations.

In essence, the outlook for crude oil remains a nuanced interplay of technical signals, psychological price levels, and the intricate balance between supply and demand. The stability witnessed around key price points and the anticipation of “golden crosses” underscore the complex dynamics at play. Amidst OPEC’s production strategies and the broader global economic context, traders should anticipate a market environment characterized by considerable noise. As technical signals align with market fundamentals, astute traders must exercise a prudent approach, employing careful risk management to navigate this intricate landscape.

 

 

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#CrudeOil Price Recovery Won’t Be Easy, Hurdles Nearby (28 April 2022)

Key Highlights

• Crude oil price found support near $95.50 and corrected higher.
• It broke a key bearish trend line with resistance near $100.10 on the 4-hours chart.
• Gold price could extend losses below $1,890 and $1,880.
• The US GDP could grow 1.1% in Q1 2022 (Prelim), down from 6.9%.

Crude Oil Price Technical Analysis

After facing rejection near $109.55, crude oil price started a fresh decline against the US Dollar. The price traded below the $105 support to move into a short-term bearish zone.

 

 

Looking at the 4-hours chart of XTI/USD, the price traded below the $100 support, the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hours), and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hours).

It traded as low as $95.56 before the bulls appeared. The price started an upside correction above the $98 and $99 levels. There was also a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance near $100.10 on the same chart.

However, the price faced resistance near $102.50 and the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $109.55 swing high to $95.56 low.

The main resistance on the upside is near the $104.20 level. A clear move above the $104.20 resistance zone could open the doors for a steady move towards the $110 resistance level. The next major resistance might be near the $115 level.

If there is no upside break, the price could start another decline below $98. The next major support is near $95.50, below which there is a risk of a move towards the $93.25 level. Any more losses might call for a test of the $85 support.

Looking at the gold price, the bears remained active below the $1,920 level. A close below $1,890 and $1,880 might spark a sharp decline.

Economic Releases to Watch Today

• German Consumer Price Index for April 2022 (YoY)
• German Consumer Price Index for April 2022 (MoM)
• US Gross Domestic Product for Q1 2022 (Preliminary)

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#GOLD(XAUUSD) AND #CRUDEOIL Technical Outlook and Review (25 March 2022)

XAU/USD (GOLD):

On the weekly, prices are on bullish momentum. We see the potential for a bounce from our 1st support at 1918.399 in line with 127.2% FIbonacci extension towards our 1st resistance at 1990.287 in line with 61.8% FIbonacci retracement. Prices are trading above our ichimoku clouds, further supporting our bullish bias. On the daily, prices are on bullish momentum and abiding by our ascending trendline support. We see the potential for bullish continuation from our 1st support at 1910.521 in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement towards our 1st resistance at 2007.742 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci Projection. Prices are trading above our ichimoku cloud support, further supporting our bullish bias. On the H4, prices are on bearish momentum and approaching a key pivot. We see the potential for a dip from our 1st resistance at 1949.865 which is an area of Fibonacci confluences towards our 1st support at 1940.587 in line with 23.6% Fibonacci Retracementand also graphical overlap. Prices are trading below our ichimoku clouds, further supporting our bearish bias.

Areas of consideration:

• 4h 1st support at 1940.587
• 4h 1st resistance at 1949.865

 

 

OIL:

On the weekly, with price moving above the ichimoku cloud, we have a bias that price will rise to our 1st resistance from our 1st support. Alternatively, price may break 1st support structure and head for 2nd support.

On the Daily, with price moving above the ichimoku cloud, we have a bias that price will rise to our 1st resistance from our 1st support. Alternatively, price may break 1st support structure and head for 2nd support.

On the H4, with price moving above the ichimoku cloud, we have a bias that price will rise to our 1st resistance at 130.46 in line with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement from our 1st support at 113.66 in line with the horizontal overlap support and 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. Alternatively, price may break 1st support structure and head for 2nd support at 102.53 in line with the horizontaL overlap support and 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.

Areas of consideration:

• H4 time frame, 1st resistance of 130.46
• H4 time frame, 1st support of 113.66

 

 

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Weekly Forex Technical Analysis (15-19 November 2021): US Dollar Index,EURUSD,GBPJPY,AUDJPY,USDJPY AND GBPCHF

Technical Analysis

U.S. Dollar Index

The weekly price chart below shows the U.S. Dollar Index printed a bullish candlestick last week, again making its highest weekly closing price in over one year. The price is showing short-term bullish momentum, and the price is of course above its levels from 3 and 6 months ago, which shows that the long-term bullish trend in the greenback is still valid. Notably, the price is now bumping into a very key resistance zone for the USD, shown in the price chart below at 12140/58. If the price can break and hold above 12158 next week, that could be a key long-term bullish breakout.

Thebest strategy in the Forex market over the coming week will probably be to look for long trades in commodities, or in long USD Forex trades.

EUR/USD

This major currency pair has been in along-term bearish trend since May,but with deep bullish retracements, making it difficult to trade. However, last week saw the price fall sharply, especially on Wednesday following the U.S. inflation data release. The week ended at a 15-month low closing price, and the price closed very near its low, which is a bearish sign.

This currency pair is likely to fall further over the coming days, with no key support levels above the $1.1400 area.

Traders do need to be careful with this currency pair to only trade short when the short-term momentum is bearish.

AUD/JPY

We had expected the level at 83.02 might act as support, as it had acted previously as both support and resistance. Note how these “flipping” levels can work well. The H1 chart below shows how the price action rejected this level with a large near-engulfing candlestickright at the end of last Wednesday’s Asian session (typically one of the best times to trade currency pairs involving Asian currencies such as these) marked by the up arrow in the price chart below.

The trade has so far given a maximum reward to risk ratio of about 4 to 1 based on the size of the entry candlestick structure.

GBP/JPY

The British pound initially tried to rally against the Japanese yen last week but gave back the gains to crash into the ¥152.50 level. This is an area that would continue to be very supportive, but it is worth noting that the British pound has struggled across the board. With the Bank of England now dovish, it should continue to weigh upon the pound in general. That being said, though, the GBP/JPY is likely to be a little bit more sluggish than some of the other British pound-related pairs, simply because the Japanese yen is so weak itself. I would anticipate that rallies are going to continue to be sold into as we try to get down to the ¥150 level.

USD/JPY

The US dollar had initially fallen pretty hard during the course of the week but found enough support underneath to turn things around and show signs of life again. We reached towards the crucial ¥112.50 level, but then turned around to rally quite significantly. By the end of the week, we ended up staying within the flagging pattern that we have been in for a while. At this point, I think this remains a “buy on the dips market” going forward. The ¥115 level above is a major resistance barrier that must be acknowledged. Anything above there could open up a longer-term “buy-and-hold” scenario.

GBP/CHF

The British pound initially tried to rally against the Swiss franc but gave back gains during the course of the week to close near the 1.2350 level. At this point, it looks like we are still trying to make a move towards 1.22 handle, so I like the idea of shorting this market on little rallies that show signs of exhaustion. Ultimately, if we can break down below the 1.22 handle, we could see a move towards 1.18 level.

Bottom Line

I see the best opportunities in the financial markets this weekaslikely to be short EUR/USD, and long USD/TRY and Wheat.

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Weekly Forex Technical Analysis (8-12 NOV 2021): US Dollar Index,NASDAQ100,SP500,AUDUSD,GBPJPY,EURUSD,GBPCAD,USDCAD,GBPJPY AND GBPUSD

U.S. Dollar Index

The weekly price chart below shows the U.S. Dollar Index printed a bullish candlestick last week, making its highest weekly closing price in over one year. The price is showing weak short-term bullish momentum, and the price is of course above its levels from 3 and 6 months ago, which shows that the long-term bullish trend in the greenback is still valid. Thebest strategy in the Forex market over the coming week will probably be to look for long trades in stocks or commodities, or in long USD Forex trades.

GBP/USD

This major currency pair has been in a the long-term bearish trend since May,but with deep bullish retracements, making it difficult to trade. However, following the Bank of England’s slow reaction to changing monetary conditions last week, we saw a sharp drop ending inthe lowest weekly close here made in the last 10 months. Despite this, it should be noted that the price has not yet exceeded last week’s low, made at the support level of $1.3411.

If we get a daily (New York) close below $1.3411 – or ideally, below $1.3400 – we will probably see yet more downwards price movement, so there is likely to be a short trade opportunity here if this scenario plays out.

Traders do need to be careful to only trade short when the short-term momentum is bearish.

S&P 500 Index

After trading below its 100-day moving average just a few weeks ago, the major US stock index has been roaring ahead for the past five weeks, rising in value during this time by about 8%.The end of last week saw the price reach another new all-time high, after having traded above the round number at 4700 for the first time.

The weekly candlestick was solidly bullish and closed not far from the top of its price range. This, and the record high, are bullish signs.

The S&P 500 Index looks likely to remain a good potential buy.

NASDAQ 100 Index

After trading below its 100-day moving average just a few weeks ago, the major US technology stock index has been roaring ahead for the past five weeks, rising in value during this time by about 11%.Last week saw the price close at another new all-time high.

The weekly candlestick was solidly bullish and closed near the top of its price range. This, the above-average weekly price range, and the record high, are all bullish signs.

The NASDAQ 100 Index looks likely to be a good buy.

AUD/USD

We had expected the level at 0.7366 might act as resistance, as it had acted previously as both support and resistance. Note how these “flipping” levels can work well. The H1 chart below shows how the price action rejected this level with a large bullishoutside barright at the start of last Friday’s New York / London overlap session (typically one of the best times to trade currency pairs) marked by the up arrow in the price chart below.

GBP/JPY

The British pound got absolutely crushed last week after the Bank of England decided not to taper its bond purchasing program.The pound fell all the way down towards the ¥153 level, which suggests that we probably are going to test the purple box that I have on the chart, which should be supportive. Between here and the ¥152 level, I would anticipate some type of bounce, and if we do get that bounce, I think it could be a nice buying opportunity. If we break down below the ¥152 level, then we go looking towards the ¥150 region.

EUR/USD

The euro was all over the place last week to form a bit of a neutral candlestick. I believe we will probably continue to see a lot of that sideways action, but if we turn around and break above the 1.16 level again, then I think the market may try to recover. This will be all about the US dollar, and not necessarily the euro itself. I do anticipate that the euro is going to be very noisy, and I think short-term traders will continue to bounce this thing around between 1.15 and 1.16 before making a much longer-term move.

Bottom Line

I see the best opportunities in the financial markets this weekaslikely to belong of the S&P 500 & NASDAQ 500 Indices in US dollar terms, and long USD/TRYand short GBP/USD following respective daily (New York) closes beyond the long-term high or low closing prices.

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Intraday Market Analysis – USD Consolidates Gains,XAGUSD to test critical ceiling and SPX 500 tests all-time high(22 October 2021)

USDJPY seeks support

The US dollar steadies over lower-than-expected initial jobless claims.

Sentiment remains upbeat, however, the pair is struggling to climb past the psychological level of 115.00, probably due to overextension. The RSI’s double top in the overbought area and bearish divergence suggests that the rally could be losing steam.

A breach below 113.90 would prompt weaker hands to exit, leading to a pullback towards 113.00. A rebound past the said resistance would send the price to March 2017’s high of 115.40.

XAGUSD to test critical ceiling

Silver stalls as the greenback reclaims some lost ground. The break above the round number of 24.00 indicates strong commitment from the buy-side.

The bulls are looking at the major resistance at 24.80 from the daily timeframe, as a breakout would end a five-month-long correction and pave the way for a bullish reversal.

However, an overbought RSI coupled with a bearish divergence suggests possible exhaustion in the run-up. 23.60 would be the first level to watch for if the price pulls lower in search of support.

SPX 500 tests all-time high

The S&P 500 flies high supported by better-than-expected third-quarter earnings. The index has reached the previous all-time high at 4550.

A breakout may trigger a runaway rally. Nonetheless, a repeatedly overbought RSI may cause a limited pullback as buyers take profit.

A drop below the immediate support at 4515 would pull the trigger. 4445 would be next as it coincides with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the October rally. The bulls are likely to buy the dips though after sentiment turns optimistic.

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