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WTI Crude Oil saw the 80.000 USD level penetrated upwards on Wednesday of last week, only to falter and then begin a rather steady push lower.
The incremental move higher starting last week only to run into headwinds after month long resistance was tested is noteworthy. Also of importance is that OPEC will be conducting a meeting today to discuss pricing and production. WTI Crude Oil’s ability to move back to mid-term lows before the oil conference will spark intrigue and concerns in the minds of speculators.
Support Levels and Early Trading in WTI Crude Oil this Week
Large players in WTI Crude Oil will react immediately to news coming from OPEC later today and early tomorrow. There should be no doubt that OPEC would like to see a stable price that floats near higher ratios. Their decisions regarding production levels will certainly affect sentiment. The consideration that WTI Crude Oil is near the lower elements of its healthy price range may mean that OPEC continues production at its current levels. However, I have no inside knowledge. Wagering on what OPEC says is best left to insiders.
From a fundamental standpoint demand and supply remain balanced in WTI Crude Oil. The U.S economy is showing signs of slowing down and this may curtail some usage, but it should not be counted upon. The ability of WTI Crude Oil to remain within sight of the 77.000 price is important and early trading Monday should be monitored intently. One consideration for day traders to lean upon may be the notion that it is highly unlikely that OPEC will say anything which will cause weakness in the price of WTI Crude Oil. They do not want to hurt the price of their commodity.
Early Reactions in WTI Crude Oil on Monday
If WTI Crude Oil creates price velocity early on Monday this would be interesting and it would likely be to the upside, and then potentially run into resistance which could create an opportunity for day traders to look for opportunities. However, if Crude Oil were to trade lower early tomorrow this could signal that traders who have been leaning towards bearish sentiment may believe there is more room to explore downwards, this if OPEC hasn’t said anything noteworthy which gives sellers concerns.
WTI Crude Oil Weekly Outlook:
Speculative price range for WTI Crude Oil is 75.80 to 80.600
Traders will certainly have to be on the lookout for a surprising statement from OPEC which creates velocity in WTI Crude Oil which is always a danger after their conferences. Yet, if news remains calm and no new developments cause massive reactions, the price of WTI Crude Oil should remain with its current speculative price range.
The move downwards at the end of last week after achieving highs is interesting and may indicate bearish sentiment remains a bit stronger than buyers at this time. Traders looking for lower movement that challenges anything penetrating the 76.000 level may be too ambitious, but the reaction early on Monday and into Tuesday after the OPEC meeting outcome is announced will certainly be important impetus and could cause new dynamics.
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In general, traders are now focusing on personal consumption expenditures data scheduled for release on Friday, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of US inflation, which is expected to be in line with the Consumer Price Index, indicating that prices are not accelerating.
At the same time, rising geopolitical risks in the Middle East continue to enhance the appeal of a safe haven. Meanwhile, the recent reports showed that the Israeli army denied striking a tent camp west of Rafah, with Gaza health authorities reporting that Israeli tank shelling had killed at least 21 people in a designated civilian evacuation zone.
According to the platforms of licensed currency trading companies, the US dollar index rose above the 104.7 level today, Wednesday. It rebounded more from its recent lowest levels amid hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve, while investors prepared for the US personal consumption expenditures price report scheduled for later this week. Furthermore, the Fed should hold off on cutting interest rates until significant progress is made on inflation, Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari told CNBC on Tuesday. Also, he stated that the US central bank may consider raising interest rates if inflation does not continue to decline.
Meanwhile, data on Tuesday showed that US consumer confidence unexpectedly improved in May, reinforcing hawkish expectations on Federal Reserve policy. Now, markets see December as the likely start of the monetary easing cycle, well after previous expectations of a September rate cut.
According to trading, the price of the US dollar strengthened in all areas. Nevertheless, failed to gain much momentum against the Australian dollar, with the monthly inflation rate in Australia accelerating to its highest level in five months.
Another factor affecting the gold market, the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds rose by about 10 basis points to reach 4.54% after the bad results of the 5-year and 2-year auctions led to sales. Moreover, the United States sold five-year bonds worth $70 billion at an interest rate of 4.553%, slightly above the pre-auction level of 4.540%. An earlier offering of $69 billion in two-year bonds also saw tepid demand. Likewise, bond markets were already under pressure earlier in the session after data showed US consumer confidence rose unexpectedly in May, dampening expectations for an interest rate cut.
Also, investors digested comments from Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, who indicated that the current policy stance is restrained but stressed that officials have not completely ruled out additional interest rate hikes.
Gold Price Forecast and Analysis Today:
The price of gold may remain supported if global geopolitical tensions continue to increase along with more central bank purchases of gold. Therefore, the chances of a rise are still stronger, and the bulls’ control over the trend will increase if the gold price moves towards the resistance levels of 2372 and 2385, then the psychological resistance of $2400 per ounce again. On the other hand, according to the performance on the daily chart with the $2,300 support level broken, there may be opportunities to think about starting to buy gold again.
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GBPJPY slumped suddenly to 10-week low of 178.00 on Tuesday in what looked to be a currency intervention from the Bank of Japan.The resistance-turned-support trendline from April 2022 halted the bearish action and lifted the price back to the 179.90 constraining area, but downside risks have not evaporated yet.
The RSI remains negatively charged comfortably below its 50 neutral mark, while the stochastic oscillator has resumed its negative momentum. Meanwhile, the decline in the MACD has picked up pace below the red signal line, suggesting downside pressures may dominate in the short-term.
Should sellers drive below 178.00, the pair might seek shelter within the 175.00-175.80 area, where the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the 158.25-186.45 uptrend is found. A step lower could stretch towards the 50% Fibonacci of 172.50 and the 200-day simple moving average (SMA). If buyers don’t show up there, the bearish wave could strengthen towards the 61.8% Fibonacci of 169.00.
On the upside, the 20-day SMA and the short-term resistance trendline drawn from recent highs could cancel any progress around 182.00. The 50-day SMA could cement that ceiling, preventing a quick rally towards the eight-year high of 186.45. Slightly higher, the bulls could face a noisy trading around the resistance line coming from October 2022 at 188.45. If this proves easy to overcome, the door will open for the 190.00 psychological mark and the 191.50 barrier from 2015.
In summary, GBPJPY bears might have some extra fuel in the tank, with traders expected to engage in new selling tendencies below 178.00.
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Gold markets were very noisy during the month of August, as we initially fell down to the 38.2% Fibonacci level on the weekly chart, only to turn around and show signs of life again. By doing so, it looks as if the market is hanging on to the uptrend, and the recent pullback has been quite gentle, so I think it makes a certain amount of sense that we would see a continuation of the overall run higher. Furthermore, we have recently seen the US dollar soften a bit, so therefore it does give a little bit of credence to gold doing a bit better.
All things being equal, the 50-Week EMA underneath has offered support near the 38.2% Fibonacci level, and it does look like we are trying to recover from this area. If we can continue to go higher, then it’s likely that we could go looking to the $2000 level above. The $2000 level is a large, round, psychologically significant figure, and an area that I think is a nice target above. If we can break through there, then the $2050 level could be the next target. On the other hand, if we were to turn around and break down below the lows of the last couple of weeks, roughly $1880, then it’s likely that the market will fall apart, perhaps going down to the $1800 level, which would almost certainly see the US dollar strengthened at the same time, and then of course the interest rates rising in America could also provide that drag.
Nonetheless, this is a market that I think continues to go higher, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that it’s going to go higher quickly, and therefore I think you’ve got more of a “buy on the dips” attitude going forward, and therefore I think this is a situation where we eventually go higher.
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To effectively engage in this market, it’s imperative to wait for momentum to build before committing to larger positions.
Once this event concludes, a scenario might unfold where follow-through action becomes apparent. The current landscape suggests that the market will continue to experience significant volatility. Breaking above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) could signal an opportunity to target the $2000 price level. Conversely, a breach beneath the 200-day EMA might pave the way for a descent towards the $1900 level.
During these dynamics, the market is potentially forming a “double bottom” pattern, which could serve as a precursor to the impending price action. The candlestick pattern observed on Thursday exhibited a notably impulsive nature, a positive sign indicating a potential market turnaround and upward movement. Overall, this market remains exceptionally turbulent, urging cautious consideration of position sizes. It’s important to recognize that the market’s corrections often manifest vigorously, swiftly placing traders in unfavorable positions.
Be Prudent
To effectively engage in this market, it’s imperative to wait for momentum to build before committing to larger positions. Until that juncture is reached, a prudent approach is recommended. While an eventual boost for the gold market seems plausible, the caveat of Jerome Powell’s potential market impact must be kept in mind.
Ultimately, the recent behavior of the gold market reveals its attempt to initiate a rally followed by a hesitant retreat. The forthcoming Jackson Hole Symposium is poised to shape market dynamics, causing the current indecision to culminate in a significant move. Post-event, the market might offer follow-through opportunities, amid the ongoing backdrop of heightened volatility. The interplay between key moving averages suggests potential price targets. The formation of a “double bottom” and the impulsive nature of recent candlesticks further hint at the market’s trajectory. As this market tends to be turbulent, prudence in position sizing is vital. While eventual upward momentum is conceivable, the influence of Jerome Powell on market sentiment remains a factor to watch.
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Rehana William |Financial Consultant _Forex_Gold Xauusd| Fund Manager 