Tag: Nasdaq 100 Signal

Indices Forecast: #SP500,#DAX,#NASDAQ100 (7 May 2024)

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Dax Forecast: Builds Case for Basing

  • You can see that the DAX did rally pretty significantly right off the bat here early Monday morning, but we are starting to see trouble in a very familiar area.
  • This area for lack of a better number, I’m going to call 18,250 euro.
  • It does look like we are essentially trying to consolidate here

With that being said, it does make a certain amount of sense that perhaps we will see a market that just bangs around between the 50 day EMA and the 18,250 euro level in the short term. But overall, it is a market that’s bullish. This consolidation makes a certain amount of sense after the recent pullback as traders have to test the waters to see whether or not the stock market is where they want to be.

DAX is the Big Market for EU

Furthermore, you must keep in mind that the DAX is the gateway to the rest of the European Union. So as the DAX goes, typically, so goes the AMX, the CAC, the MIB, et cetera. So with all of that being said, even if you’re not trading the DAX directly, this is an index that you need to pay close attention to if you have anything to do with equities on the continent.

If we can break above the 18,250 euro level on a daily close, I think at that point in time, you will have a real shot at this market trying to reach the highs again, near the 18,563 euro level. On a pullback, if we were to break down below the 50 day EMA, we could see the DAX go looking to the 17,500 euro level in area that has recently been massively supported. This area being broken below would obviously be a major turn of events, and therefore would be disastrous for not only the German stock exchanges, but for exchanges around the continent, as it is such a big player.

The EUR/USD pair could also give us an idea of how things go, as the German economy is so laden with export based companies. The euro falling against the dollar could also be a tertiary signal for where we go here as well.

S&P 500 Forecast: Continues to See Inflows

  • The S&P 500 rallied early during the trading session on Monday, as it looked like money was flowing back into Wall Street and stocks overall.
  • This does make a certain amount of sense, because people are starting to celebrate the idea that the jobs report in the United States was fairly weak, and therefore we could possibly be seeing the potential scenario setting up that the Federal Reserve could actually cut rates.

After all, this is what Wall Street cheers. They cheer unemployment. This should bring down inflation and therefore stocks should perform a bit better as rates in America drop. Speaking of rates, you will have to pay close attention to the interest rate situation which has been falling, but certainly looks as if it could turn around at any moment. If rates start to spike in America, that could very well put downward pressure on stocks.

Not Equal-Weighted

The S&P 500, of course, is not an equal weighted index. So, you have to keep that in mind. But I think ultimately as long as the top ten stocks or so are doing fairly well, you have a situation where the S&P 500 will rally. Underneath we have the 50 day EMA hanging around the 5090 level. And then underneath there we have the 5000 level which could be massive support as well, both from a structural and psychological standpoint.

It looks to me like the market is going to continue to be a buy on the dip scenario, and that we will eventually try to go looking toward the 5300 level, which is essentially where we topped out at recently. In general, this is an uptrend that had a nice correction of roughly 6 or 7%. And now those who are willing to follow the trend are starting to put money to work. That being said, you need to be very cautious about jumping in with both feet as there have been a lot of issues out there as of late, some of which have nothing to do with the stock market itself such as the geopolitical risks. Ultimately, I am bullish of this market, but I also recognize that there are a lot of exterior pressures out there that could come into the picture. Obviously, comma the fact that we are in the midst of earning season is a major issue as well.

NASDAQ 100 Forecast: Continues to Find Buyers

  • The Nasdaq 100 rallied a bit during the trading session on Monday, after initially pulling back the 17,850 level continues to be important as it showed itself to be support on that short term pullback.
  • Nonetheless, this is a market that I think does continue to go higher and eventually goes looking to reach the 18,385 level.
  • The market has been bullish for some time, and the fact that we have recovered so aggressively over the last couple of trading days certainly bodes well for the index.

Keep in mind that the 50 day EMA sits just below the 17,850 level as well. So that’s another reason to think that there are buyers just waiting to get involved in this environment. I just don’t have any interest whatsoever in trying to short this market because quite frankly, there’s just too much momentum. We will have to pay close attention to interest rates in the United States because quite frankly, if they start to rally, that might cause major issues for the Nasdaq 100 and some of the major technology companies.

We are in the midst of earnings season, so that could bring in a little bit of volatility. But I think at this point in time, it’s obvious that the Nasdaq 100 index wants to do everything it can to go higher. The short term pullbacks, I think, continue to be buying opportunities. The 17,000 level underneath is probably a major floor in the market, as it was the most recent swing low. This is more than likely not to be a concern, but it is a possibility if we get a sudden surge of fear in the markets overall.

The Other Scenario

If we break down below there then the 200 day EMA comes into the picture. But really at this point in time, I just don’t see an argument for shorting the market. And every time we pull back, I would have to assume that there will be buyers getting involved trying to take advantage of the Nasdaq 100 itself.

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Indices Forecast: #SP500,#DAX,#NASDAQ100 (3 May 2024

On By Financial Consultant _Forex_Gold Xauusd| Fund ManagerIn Indices, INDICESLeave a comment

DAX Forecast: Looks for Base After Pullback

  • The German DAX has rallied just a bit during the early hours on Thursday as it looks like we are trying to recover a bit.
  • The 18,000 euros level is an area that obviously will attract a lot of attention due to the fact that it is a large, round, psychologically significant figure, but it’s also an area where we have seen some noise previously.
  • The market at this point in time continues to see the 50 day EMA underneath as potential support.
  • In this type of environment, I think we continue to see a lot of consolidation as we try to sort out which direction we are going in the longer term.

Trend is Still Positive

The DAX is bullish overall, but I think also this is a situation where if we can break the candlestick from the last couple of days then we could go looking to the 18,500 euro level. Underneath the 50-day EMA there is a lot of support that we’ve seen recently so I’m not interested in shorting this market anytime soon.

That being said, the 17,500 level is an area that I think a lot of people will be paying attention to because if we were to give that up, then the uptrend could be threatened. Keep in mind the DAX is the gateway to Europe for most traders so they will look to it as a place to put money to work initially. In that sense, you can look at the DAX as a harbinger of what happens on the rest of the continent such as trading in the MIB in Italy or the AMX in Amsterdam etc. At this point it looks like we’re trying to beat back some of this negativity, but I think we’ve got some choppy and volatile days ahead

When you get this type of choppy volatility, you are better off using small positions, but given enough time I do think that we continue to see an attempt to rally. If we don’t rally in this market, and start to break down, then the real trade would be to short some of the smaller European indices.

S&P 500 Forecast: Continues to Consolidate (SIGNAL)

  • Potential signal: if we break above the top of the wipeout candlestick from Tuesday, near the 5140 level, I would be a buyer and go looking toward the 5275 level. Underneath, the 5000 level would be my stop loss.
  • Ultimately, this is a market that I do think has a lot of support underneath it, but the 5000 level is an area that I think he is psychologically important as well as potentially structurally supportive as well. In fact, I think it’s an area of support that extends down to the 4925 level.

The 50-Day EMA sits just above, offering a certain amount of resistance. If we were to break above there, then the market is likely to go looking toward the 5125 level. Breaking above that level opens up the possibility of a move toward the 5300 level, but we would need to see some type of momentum in the market. That being said, it’s probably only a matter of time before Wall Street finds a reason to start pushing a bullish narrative again.

Interest Rate Markets and Jobs

Friday is the nonfarm payroll announcement, and that of course will have a major influence on what happens next. Ultimately, which you need to watch is interest rates coming out of the 10 year note in the United States, because that’s the only thing that Wall Street cares about, whether or not it is going to get cheap money. This has absolutely nothing to do with the economy, because as an American I can tell you that things are getting rapidly more expensive. Wall Street is worried about getting cheap money to push around and take advantage of liquidity.

This is a bit ironic, considering we are in the midst of earning season, but quite frankly earnings have nothing to do with what happens with the stock. That’s like assuming that stocks have something to do with the economy. It’s a transmission of liquidity like it has been since the Great Financial Crisis. This is a market that is currently trying to sort out whether or not it has enough liquidity to support it. If it does, it will rise. If it does not, it will fall. At this point, I think the only thing you can count on is a lot of noise.

Nasdaq 100: Sandwiched, Watch US 10-Year Treasury Yield Next

  • Nasdaq 100 has exhibited short-term intraday wild gyrations of 3% to 4% in opposite directions since last week.
  • Today’s data focus will be on US non-farm payrolls and ISM Services PMI for April to offer clues on whether the stagflation risk narrative is still alive.
  • Macro factors such as the movement of the US 10-year Treasury yield are likely to take over the driver’s seat over micro factors (earnings results) in the next two weeks.
  • Key levels on the US 10-year Treasury yield to watch are 4.70% (above, likely to be bearish for Nasdaq 100) and 4.58% (below, bullish bias for Nasdaq 100).

Since our last publication, the Nasdaq 100 has continued to inch lower from its current all-time high level of 18,465 printed on 21 March 2024. It has just ended April with a monthly loss of -4.46%, its worst monthly performance since September 2023 after its prior five consecutive months of positive returns.

So far it has recorded a maximum drawdown of -8% from its current all-time high to the recent 19 April 2024 low of 16,974, and current episodes of minor rebounds in price actions have been rejected by the downward slopping 20 and 50-day moving averages; the hallmark of a potential on-going medium-term corrective decline sequence within its longer-term major uptrend phase.

On a shorter-term intraday basis, wild gyrations between a range of 3% to 4% in opposite directions have been seen on the Nasdaq 100 due to several significant risk events, and data releases that unfolded this week, two of the “Magnificent 7 group of mega-cap US stocks earnings results (Amazon and Apple), US ISM Manufacturing PMI, US Treasury refunding requirements, and the FOMC monetary policy meeting.

These events and data sets offered conflicting signals on the state of the US economy; stagflation risk is still alive but negated by the Fed’s upcoming Quantitative Tightening (QT) taper initiative to kickstart in June where the monthly amount of US Treasuries roll-off in the Fed’s balance sheet will be reduced to US$25 billion from US$60 billion.

Hence, the QT taper initiative has offered a relief to potentially cap any adverse liquidity squeeze in the US financial system that can trigger a spike in short-term and overnight interest rates as a lesser amount of banks’ reverses may be needed to fund the US Treasury general account (TGA) as the amount in the Fed’s overnight reverse repos facility (the primary source of funding for TGA replenishment since September 2023) has dwindled to almost zero (US$428.68 billion as of 2 May 2024) from a peak of US$2.55 trillion in December 2022.

Watch US NFP & ISM Services PMI for more clarity on the state of the US economy

There will be two more key pieces of economic data to digest before we end this hectic and volatile week, US non-farm payrolls for April where there may be a risk of upside surprise as consensus expectations have been lowballed to +181K jobs added after a surprise rosy print of +232K jobs in March. April’s ISM Services PMI on the health of the US services sector will be out later; still in an expansionary mode (above 50 reading) but the pace of expansion has slowed since the start of the year with last month’s March print of 51.1 versus 53.4 seen in January. If April’s number comes in below expectations of 52 and March’s 51.1, the stagflation risk narrative is likely to gain traction again.

US 10-year Treasury yield may dictate Nasdaq 100’s next intermediate moves

A clearance above 4.70% resistance on the US 10-year Treasury yield (inverted) may trigger another potential downleg in the Nasdaq 100 with its key medium-term support zone coming in at 16,560/290 (also the 200-day moving average).

On the flip side, a break below 4.58% near-term support on the US 10-year Treasury yield (inverted) is likely to see a continuation of the rebound on the Nasdaq 100 from the19 April 2024 low to expose the next intermediate resistance at 17,900

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Monthly Forecast : #NASDAQ100 & #SP500 (May 2024)

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NASDAQ 100 Monthly Forecast: May 2024

  • The NASDAQ 100 has been all over the place during the month of April, which is not a huge surprise considering that there are a lot of uncertainties around the world.
  • After all, the NASDAQ 100 is an index that is highly sensitive to risk appetite, as it is some of the higher growth companies.
  • Furthermore, the month of April has seen earning season kickoff at the end of it, so that obviously has a major influence on what happens in the NASDAQ 100 as well.

The 17,000 level has proven itself to be important in this market, and therefore I think you need to look at it through the prism of a “floor in the market” that we are dealing with. If the market were to break down below the 17,000 level, then it’s possible that we could drop another 1000 points down to the 16,000 level. While I don’t necessarily have that as a target going forward, I do recognize that it is something important to keep in the back of your mind.

At this point in time, I believe that the 18,500 level is an area that traders will continue to look to as a potential target, as it was significant resistance previously. With that being the case, the market is likely to continue to see a lot of volatility, but I think every time we pull back, it’s very likely that buyers will come in and try to pick up a little bit of value.

One thing is for sure, it seems like the Wall Street traders out there continue to find reasons to buy stocks regardless. That being said, I think every dip will more likely than not capture a certain amount of attention, and therefore I think given enough time we could really start to see this market take off. Over the longer term, I think you continue to see a lot of people jumping into this market, but there may be a lot of pain between now and whenever we find momentum. Longer-term, it would not surprise me at all to see the NASDAQ 100 go looking to the 20,000 level, but it may not happen during the month of May as we are probably going to spend most of her time digesting some of the massive gains that we had seen previously.

S&P 500 Monthly Forecast: May 2024

  • The S&P 500 has been very noisy for the month of April, which should not be a huge surprise considering that we have seen so much in the way of upward momentum.
  • Sooner or later, we had to consolidate, and therefore work off some of the excess froth that had been built up in the markets.
  • I think given enough time, this is a market that will eventually take off to the upside again, and as we are going through earnings season, it does make a certain amount of sense the volatility would be part of the market anyway.

At this point, I have to assume that the S&P 500 remains more or less a “buy on the dips” market, as we have seen so much in the way of upward pressure of the longer term, and therefore a lot of traders will be out there wishing that they had gotten involved that in earlier level. However, they did get a little bit of an opportunity to pick up “cheap contracts” in this market, therefore I think that’s part of what we are seeing happen right now. Underneath, we have the 5000 level that will almost certainly offer a significant amount of support, and then after that we have the 4900 level. Anything below the 4900 level could open up a major correction.

All things being equal, this is a market that will continue to see a lot of volatility during this time of year, but I also believe that we have a situation where plenty of value hunters are willing to get involved. If we can break above the 5300 level, then it’s likely that the S&P 500 will go looking to the 5500 level. Underneath, if we were to break down then the 50-We EMA will be right around the 4700 level, and it could be a bit of support as well. That being said, at the end of the month of April, it looks like the buyers are starting the flexor muscles again, so I think it’s probably only a matter of time before we continue to go higher. Ultimately, I think you have a noisy market, but you still have to look at this through the prism of a market that is still bullish from a long-term perspective.

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Indices Forecast: #SP500,#DAX,#NASDAQ100,#CAC (16 April 2024)

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CAC Forecast: Paris Gives Up Early Gains

  • The Parisian CAC 40 has initially rallied during the training session on Monday, but has given back in the early gain.
  • While we did end up forming a bit of a shooting star, it’s not necessarily something that I’m overly concerned about, as it looks more like consolidation at this point than anything else.
  • In fact, you could almost make an argument that we are in the midst of forming some type of Polish flag, which of course a lot of traders will pay attention to.

The Trend

The trend has been higher for stock markets around the world for some time now, as it appears that people are waiting for central banks to cut rates yet again. The European Central Bank might even be cutting it soon as this summer, and if that’s going to be the case it could add a little bit of liquidity to the CAC, the DAX, the MIB, the AMX, etc. In general, I think European indices should do fairly well, at least initially. The question then becomes whether or not the ECB is cutting because of some type of emergency that it can get its arms around?

Technical Analysis

At this point, I’m very interested in the €7900 level as a potential support region. It’s probably also worth noting that the €8000 level sits just below current trading, so that probably comes into the picture as well. The 50-Day EMA is racing toward the current trading levels, so I think that is essentially going to be the “floor in the market” as things stand right now. I was an area we had broken out of as significant resistance, during the beginning of the year. Ultimately, this is a market that I continue to buy dips in, and I do think that it is probably only a matter of time before you rally again, but it does make sense to work off a little bit of upward momentum. Markets don’t go in one direction forever, so there’s no reason to think that the CAC would be any different at this point.

S&P 500 Forecast: Continues to Bounce Back and Forth

  • The S&P 500 initially tried to rally during the course of the trading session on Monday, as the 5100 level underneath continues to be supported.
  • The 50-Day EMA sits just below there, and it does make a certain amount of sense that we would continue to see interest in the market.
  • On the other hand, the market rally and from here would open up the possibility of a move toward the 5200 level, as we continue to consolidate overall.

Earnings Season

Earnings season of course has kicked off, so I think a lot of this noise that we see will ultimately end up being the norm. All things being equal, I think it’s likely that the market will be very noisy, but ultimately, we are still very much in an uptrend. The earnings season causes quite a bit of noise, and therefore it’s likely that the market will continue to be difficult to hang onto, but the overriding fact is that we are most certainly in an uptrend, and that has not changed.

Even if we were to break down below the 50-Day EMA, the 5100 level itself is supported as well. Breaking through all that then puts the market in the mode of looking at the 5000 level to see whether or not we can see enough buyers in that region to keep the market supported. As long as we can say above the 5000 level, I think that there’s a real shot at this market continuing to go higher.

Regardless, I have no interest in shorting any of the US indices as everybody is hanging out and waiting for monetary easing to come out the Federal Reserve, something that should be the case during the later part of this year. Ultimately, it’s also worth noting that retail sales has still been strong, so even if we don’t get monetary policy easing, the reality is that Americans continue to spend. As long as that’s the case, it’s likely that we will try to revisit the 5300 level over the longer term. I have no interest in shorting US indices at the moment as the momentum has been so strong.

DAX Forecast: Strong with a Bounce

  • The German Dax has shown the market to show upward pressure with the €18,000 level, an area that a lot of people will be looking at as and an area of interest.
  • The 50 day EMA since underneath there and therefore I think it offers a certain amount of support if we can break above the highs of both Friday and Monday, then I think the Dax has a real shot at going to the 18,500 level.
  • This is an area that we have seen selling in the past, but I think it is only a matter of time before we break through it overall.

At this point, the market is likely to continue to see a lot of volatility. And with that being said, I think you have to be very cautious with your position sizing. Nonetheless, if the Dax has shown itself to be resiliently bullish and the fact that we have pulled back just a bid offers enough value that I think people would get involved.

A Recent Small Drop Offers Opportunity

When you look at this drop of about 4%, it could very well end up being a buying opportunity. The 50 day EMA offers a significant amount of technical support as well, and as long as it looks like the ECB is going to be cutting rates, it’s very possible that you will have the Dax be the first place people throw money at.

I have no interest in shorting this market and even though we have had this a little bit of a pullback, we are still light years away from turning around and showing any proclivity to drop for a significant amount. So, with that being said, I think you have to keep in the back of your mind that this is a market that you have to be very patient with. You probably don’t want to have a huge position in, but you certainly should see this as a market that could rally over the next several weeks, if not months.

NASDAQ Forecast: Continues to See Buyers Overall

  • The Nasdaq 100 has rallied a bit during the early hours on Monday, as perhaps there’s been a big sigh of relief that the Middle Eastern conflict hasn’t expanded.
  • That being said, I think we are still very much in a consolidation area, and that is an area that I think a lot of people would pay close attention to.
  • This market will continue to move on the handful of major stocks that everyone owns.
  • Nonetheless, this market is in an uptrend, and people will continue to see buyers ahead. Remember though, this is earnings season, so volatility could be an issue overall.

We had so much in the way of a massive uptrend that working off some of that excess makes sense. Furthermore, we also have the idea that the earnings season is currently kicking off and that obviously has an influence on stocks. But regardless, the big driver, of course, is going to be the Federal Reserve and its monetary policy. Fed watching is by far the most important thing that traders can do at this point in time. Earnings may have an effect, but longer-term it is still about the interest rate situation.

This Market Has Support

At this point, it’s likely that we could see a situation where, any dip I think gets bought into the 17,775 level should continue to be support right along with the 50 day EMA. So as long as we can stay above all of that, I think we’re going to continue to see choppiness, but overall, more leaning towards the upside.

If we can break above the 18,500 level, then it opens up a much bigger move in the Nasdaq 100 and I think eventually will go looking to the 20,000 level. I’m not necessarily expecting that right away. but I certainly would not be surprised by it as the trend has been so strong up to this point. A breakdown below the 17,775 level could lead to a deeper correction, but, that won’t only end up being a buying opportunity down the road.

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Indices Forecast: #SP500,#DAX,#NASDAQ100 (10 April 2024)

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NASDAQ Forecast: Looks Strong Ahead of CPI

  • You can see that we did pull back just a bit during the early hours on Tuesday, but it looks like Wall Street is trying to power higher.
  • Keep in mind that the CPI numbers come out on Wednesday and that of course will have a certain amount of influence on this market, but I think given enough time, we do break higher.

The Federal Reserve is likely to cut rates later in the year and it does seem like traders on Wall Street are betting on that. It is reflected in the stock market. I think in the short term though, we need to look at the $17,775 level underneath as a significant support level, while the $18,500 level above is a significant resistance barrier.

We may bounce around in this area, but obviously CPI numbers could cause some type of major shift at the moment. I think it’s a market that’s trying to work through a lot of excess froth and it does make a certain amount of sense that we consolidate for a while. After all, we’ve been in a strong uptrend for several months now.

Potential Technical Support

The 50 day EMA sits underneath it and continues to offer support. So therefore, I think a lot of traders will look at that as a potential bounce just waiting to happen as well. But either way, I have no interest in shorting this market. I think it is probably only a matter of time before we continue to see buyers on dips and the upcoming earnings season could be one of the major drivers.

Earnings season has been a bit of a pleasant surprise for a while on Wall Street, and I think we may continue to see more of that. Regardless, earnings will only have so much of an effect as it seems like most people out there are more or less focused on what the Federal Reserve may do, so it’s possible that “bad news is good news” fairly soon as traders will continue to hope for loose monetary policy.

S&P 500 Forecast: Wall Street Waits for CPI as SP 500 Stagnates

  • The S&P 500 was rather quiet during the trading session on Tuesday as we wait for the Consumer Price Index figures.
  • Ultimately, this is a market that will continue to be very noisy, but I think it’s probably only a matter of time before we start to pick up momentum in the upward direction yet again.
  • After all, this is a market that is focusing almost solely on the idea of cheap money.

We do have earnings season coming and that of course has a major influence on what could happen in the short term, but longer term it’s going to be about interest rates as per usual. Currently, it looks like the Federal Reserve will be cutting by the end of the year, but it may be as little as to interest rate cuts now. That being said, Wall Street still has plenty of hope for more, so I think you will continue to see a lot of noisy behavior in the short term.

Consumer Price Index

In the short term, traders will be paying close attention to the Consumer Price Index numbers coming out on Wednesday, because it gives us an idea as to what inflation is doing in the United States, which directly influences what the Federal Reserve will not going. As long as inflation remains stubbornly high, the amount of interest rate cuts will continue to dwindle. Remember, there was a point in time where Wall Street anticipated 6 interest rate cuts between now and the end of the year. We are now favoring the idea of 2 or 3.

If we do rally from here, the 5300 level is an area that a lot of people will be paying attention to as it has shown itself to be massive resistance previously. If we can break above there, then the market is likely to continue to go to the 5500 level. If we break down from here, the 5100 level should be a significant amount of support with the 50-Day EMA sitting just below it is offering support as well. Either way, I don’t really have any interest in trying to short this market, because it has been far too relentless. Worst case scenario, I suspect that we go sideways.

DAX Forecast: Pulls Back during Tuesday’s Session

  • The DAX fell during early trading on Tuesday, as we continue to see a little bit of a pullback in Germany.
  • This does make a significant amount of sense though, due to the fact that the market had gotten far ahead of itself. We are currently sitting just above the 23.6 Fibonacci level of the latest leg higher, suggesting that perhaps technical analysis following traders may be looking for a deeper correction.
  • In that scenario, we could be looking at a move down to the 38.2% Fibonacci level, which currently sits near the €17,725 level.

Germany is The Bellwether

Germany is the bellwether when it comes to the European Union, so you should be watching this index regardless of what you are trading. This is because so many instruments will focus on Europe, be it indices like the CAC, MIB, AMX, etc., and of course you have to pay close attention to what it could do with the euro. We have an interest rate decision next week coming out of the European Central Bank, and perhaps some of this is to simply traders out there willing to take profit ahead of that massive decision.

A lot of traders will be waiting to see whether or not the ECB will do something to lift asset prices, as they would liquefy markets. If they do not, then it’s possible this market could fall deeper as Germany is already in the recession. That being said, expect a lot of noisy behavior over the next couple of days but I do suspect that the DAX remains a market that you are looking to buy dips in, as it is a very strong uptrend and there’s no reason to think that it’s going to change anytime soon.

With all of this being said, I do think that the market is finally starting to show some cracks, which might give you a nice opportunity to pick up a little bit of value here. Nonetheless, I also recognize that you need to be very cautious with your position sizing, as you could find yourself in a bad trade very quickly if you get to over levered and we start to see a deep correction.

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NASDAQ Futures Elliott Wave Analysis: (NQ_F) Is Giving Us a Bounce from the Buying Zone (4 April 2024)

On By Financial Consultant _Forex_Gold Xauusd| Fund ManagerIn ForexLeave a comment

Hello fellow traders. As our members know , NASDAQ has recently given us plenty of positive buying setups. In this article we’re going to present Elliott Wave charts of NQ_F published in the members area of the website. NASDAQ made a clear 3 waves pull back that has unfolded as Elliott Wave Double Three pattern. It made clear 3 waves down from the February 23rd peak and completed correction right at the Equal Legs zone ( Blue Box Area) . In further text we’re going to explain the Elliott Wave pattern and trading setup.

NASDAQ Elliott Wave 1 Hour Asia Chart 04.02.2024

The current view indicates that the intraday pullback is still in progress. We assume that the correction is unfolding as an Elliott Wave Double Three pattern with wxy red labeling. The price structure remains incomplete at the moment, suggesting further downside towards the 18322-18138.2 Blue Box Buying Zone. We don’t recommend selling NASDAQ; instead, we prefer positioning ourselves on the long side from the Blue Box area. Once NQ_F reaches our designated buying zone, we expect an influx of buyers, potentially resulting in a rally towards new highs or a 3-wave bounce.

Official trading strategy on How to trade 3, 7, or 11 swing and equal leg is explained in details in Educational Video, available for members viewing inside the membership area.

Quick reminder on how to trade our charts :

Red bearish stamp+ blue box = Selling Setup
Green bullish stamp+ blue box = Buying Setup
Charts with Black stamps are not tradable.

NASDAQ Elliott Wave 1 Hour Chart 04.02.2024

The futures have experienced a drop and have reached our buying zone, the Blue Box: 18322-18138.2. We are entering long positions within the Blue Box against the marked invalidation level. As the main trend is bullish, we expect to see at least a 3-wave bounce from the Blue Box. As soon as the price hits the 50 fibs against the x red connector, we will make positions risk-free and set stop loss at breakeven. A break below the 1.618 Fibonacci extension level, 18138.2, would invalidate the trade.

NASDAQ Elliott Wave 1 Hour Chart 04.02.2024

The NASDAQ futures has found buyers as expected and is showing a very good reaction from the Blue Box Area. We count the pullback (ii) blue completed at the 17828 low. Consequently, any long positions should now be risk-free. We are anticipating a break of the (iii) blue peak to confirm that the next leg up is in progress.

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Indices Forecast: #CAC,#SP500,#DAX,#NASDAQ100 (27 March 2024)

On By Financial Consultant _Forex_Gold Xauusd| Fund ManagerIn ForexLeave a comment

CAC Forecast: Continues to See Massive Moves Higher

The French CAC finds support, indicating bullish momentum, with a focus on €8100 as a key support level. ECB policies could further influence the market trend.

  • The French CAC initially pulled back just a bit during the trading session on Tuesday but found buyers yet again.
  • Ultimately, this is a market that I think continues to see a lot of bullish pressure, as we continue to see a lot of momentum.
  • At this point, it looks like the €8100 level continues to be massive support, therefore I think you need to look at it through that prism.
  • The market pulling back to that area almost certainly will offer some type of buying opportunity, as we have seen a lot of action in that area.

ECB and monetary policy

The European Central Bank will of course continue to take front and center stage when it comes to what happens with stocks on the continent, as traders are now starting to bet on the idea that perhaps the European Central Bank will have to loosen monetary policy. If that’s going to be the case, then it does make a certain amount of sense that stocks go higher due to the fact that most of what we see these days has to do with liquidity and not so much with the overall economy.

As for the floor in the market, I believe that it is at the €7900 level, an area that previously had been massive support and of course features a 50-Day EMA at the same time, so it’s a bit of a “double whammy” for technical analysts. At this point in time, we have to remember to buy the dips, because that seems to be with the way that most stock markets around the world are behaving, and the CAC of course is no different at this point in time.

DAX Forecast: Continues to See Upward Momentum

DAX experiences robust growth, breaking above €18,400, signaling potential climb towards €18,500. Its performance could set the trend for European indices.

  • The German DAX had another strong session on Tuesday as we continue to plow higher.
  • We are above the €18,400 level now, and it looks like we are going to try to get to the €18,500 level, and further than that to the upside.
  • Keep in mind that this is the premier “blue-chip index” in the European Union, so I think it is most certainly worth paying close attention to.
  • Ultimately this is a market that will continue to see a lot of hot money chasing it, as we are in a very strong uptrend.

Germany Leads the Way

Germany will lead the way for the rest of the European continent, so even if you are not trading this particular index, you should pay close attention to it as it could give you a bit of a “heads up” as to where we might be going in other indices such as the MIB, CAC, AMX, etc. Ultimately, this is a market that looks extraordinarily bullish and is much like US indices, being dragged along by momentum.

The ECB more likely than not will have to start to liquefy the markets, perhaps giving traders the ability to continue to push prices higher. After all, if Germany is in fact going to be in a recession, then it makes a lot of sense that traders are trying to get ahead of any ECB monetary policy decision. Ultimately, the worse the economy does in Germany, the better the stock market will do

Underneath, I see a massive amount of support near the €18,000 level, and therefore you need to be paying close attention to it. I think given enough time, not only with the €18,000 level be support, but so would the €17,950 level. In other words, this is a “buy on the dips” type of market and I think that will probably continue to be the way forward for the foreseeable future. In general, I have no interest in shorting the DAX, at least not until we break down below the €17,500 level, which is basically where the 50-Day EMA is hanging around. Until then, this is a mark that looks extraordinarily bullish.

S&P 500 Forecast: Seeing Sideways Action

If we break the highs of last week, then we could very well go looking to the 5,300 level, which I think we hit sooner or later.

  • The S&P 500 was a bit choppy early during the trading session on Tuesday as we continue to look to the upside.
  • But I think at this point in time, we may be lacking a real reason to get moving.
  • After all, the major announcement of the week is on Friday, so I think a little sideways action does make a certain amount of sense.

Keep an Eye on Longer-Term Trends and Behaviors

But in the longer term, if you continue to buy dips, you will do much better, at least until something fundamentally shifts. At this point, the 5,000 level for me is the bottom of the market, with the 50 day EMA sitting just above there. I’d be particularly interested in the S&P 500 closer to the 5,185 level, which was an area of previous resistance, and therefore I think a little bit of market memory comes into play at that region.

If we break the highs of last week, then we could very well go looking to the 5,300 level, which I think we hit sooner or later, regardless of which direction we go next. I’m just looking for value. I think that’s the way you have to play this. You have to be patient, you have to scale in, and you have to buy it when it pulls back. What the economy is actually doing is totally irrelevant. We’re in a nice uptrend.

NASDAQ Forecast: Looking for Next Move

Keep in mind that the world is waiting for the Federal Reserve to start cutting rates again, and therefore everybody’s excited about owning stocks.

  • As you can see, the NASDAQ 100 has shown itself to be somewhat dead money over the last couple of days as we are trying to sort out what to do next.
  • Ultimately, this is a market that I think is bullish overall, but there isn’t much in the way of economic announcements to move the markets between now and Friday.

How to Trade It…

Buying dips continues to be the prudent way to approach this market because it offers value in what is obviously a very bullish run. If we break above the highs of last week, then the NASDAQ 100 could go looking through the 18,500 level, followed by the 19,000 level, which I think is very possible. That being said, as long as the fundamental narrative stays the same, I just don’t see an argument for shorting.

While the economy may or may not be strong, its all about momentum on Wall Street, and you must remember that a lot of the noise on the Street is New York centric, which isn’t reality. However, price is reality – and that’s what matters. The markets will continue to cheer bad economic news, based on the idea of liquidity being added by the Fed.

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