USDMXN Forecast: #US #Dollar Continues to Fight Against the #Mexican Peso (9 May 2024)

• The US dollar has rallied a bit against the Mexican peso during the early hours on Wednesday, as we continue to see a lot of volatility overall.
• Keep in mind that the interest rate differential actually favors Mexico in this equation, and that’s part of why we had seen such a strong downtrend for so long.

That being said, we are in between the 50-day EMA and the 200-day EMA indicators, and that, of course, is an area you normally see a lot of volatility in. This is mainly due to a lot of technical traders placing trades in one direction or the other. More importantly, we’re around the 17 pesos level, which has a certain amount of psychology attached to it, and then you also have to keep in mind that there’s probably options barriers in that neighborhood as well.

Risk Appetite Continues to Matter

Because of this, I think we’ll have to pay close attention to how things play out because there is a risk appetite component in the USD/MXN pair. Keep in mind, people generally run to the US dollar in times of trouble and away from emerging market currencies regardless of the interest rate that you get paid. Beyond that, Mexico is highly levered to the US economy as it is now the number one exporter to the United States.

And obviously there’s a major influence on Mexican corporations and factories, et cetera, depending on what’s coming out of the U.S. With all of that being said, it does look like there is a large amount of clustering above that could cause some issues. And therefore, I think it’s going to be difficult to rally from here significantly. However, if we were to rally above 17.30 pesos then you have to think that perhaps the trend change is in the cards. It could be a difficult move, but it’s worth noting that if we do rally at this point in time, it could lead to not only the Mexican peso struggling, but also quite a few emerging markets as well.

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AUDUSD #Forexsignal: Could Retest the Resistance at 0.6650 Soon (9 May 2024)

Bullish view

• Buy the AUD/USD pair and set a take-profit at 0.6650.
• Add a stop-loss at 0.6500.
• Timeline: 1-2 days.

Bearish view

• Sell the AUD/USD pair and set a take-profit at 0.6500.
• Add a stop-loss at 0.6610.

The AUD/USD exchange rate remained under pressure as traders assessed the recent actions by the Federal Reserve and Australia’s central bank. The pair was trading at 0.6580 on Thursday, down from this week’s high of 0.6650.

Fed and RBA decisions

The AUD/USD pair has been in the spotlight after the recent actions by the Federal Reserve and the RBA. In its decision last week, the Fed decided to leave interest rates unchanged between 5.25% and 5.50%. It also hinted that it will cut rates later this year if inflation continues falling.

The Federal Reserve noted that inflation has remained stubbornly high above its 2% target while the economic growth is slowing. Recent data showed that the economy expanded by just 1.6% in Q1, a sharp reversal from Q4’s 3.2%. Economists expect the Fed to start cutting rates in Q4 of this year.

The Reserve Bank of Australia also left interest rates unchanged at 4.35% as it continued focusing on the country’s inflation, which has remained higher than expected. Analysts at several banks expect it to cut rates later this year. On the other hand, some of them believe that it will even hike rates later this year.

There will be no major economic data from Australia and the US on Thursday. The only report to watch from the US will be the initial and continuing jobless claims numbers. Economists polled by Reuters expect the report to reveal that the initial claims rose by 212k last week from the previous 208k.

Continuing claims are expected to come in at 1.79 million, higher than the prior week’s 1.7k. While these are important numbers, their impact on the AUD/USD pair will be limited.

AUD/USD technical analysis

The Australian dollar peaked at 0.6650 last week as the US dollar weakened after April’s nonfarm payrolls (NFP) data. That was a crucial price since it failed to move above that level on March 8th and April 9th. It was also the neckline of the inverse head and shoulders pattern.

It pulled back this week after the RBA interest rate decision and has found a support at 50-period moving average. It is also trading between the 38.2% and 50% Fibonacci Retracement level.

Therefore, the pair will likely bounce back as buyers target last Friday’s high of 0.6650. On the flip side, a drop below the support at 0.6540 will provide more downside.

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BTCUSD Forecast: #Bitcoin Continues to Drift Lower as Interest Rates Stay High (9 May 2024)

• Bitcoin has drifted a little bit lower during the early hours on Wednesday, as we continue to see interest rates in the United States cause issues for crypto in general.
• Keep in mind, things have changed. Bitcoin is no longer trading like crypto because it’s also held by a lot of people on Wall Street. They are concerned about interest rates. So, if interest rates stay higher for longer, it’s very likely the Bitcoin will struggle.

Breaking below the $60,000 level would be negative, but if we were to break down below the latest swing low, then I think Bitcoin has a real shot at dropping all the way down to the $52,000 level. This would bring the 200-day EMA into focus as potential support. If you give that up, then the trend is over.

While I am not calling for that right now, I’m just laying out the possible scenarios. If we turn around and break above the $66,000 level, then I think it’s likely that we will go look into the $73,000 level above, which of course is an area where we’ve seen a lot of resistance previously. This area would obviously attract a lot of attention, and therefore volatility as well. A break above it could open up a move to the $80,000 level fairly quickly.

Are We Forming a Base?

In general, this is a market that I think is in the midst of trying to form some type of base, and therefore you would expect a lot of volatility. 60,000 does matter. And at this point in time, I think you will continue to look at that as a magnet for action in the market. It is worth stating that we are still in an uptrend, but the recent swing high was lower than the one before it. So, beware of how this market can move, as it is historically volatile, and the last thing you want is to be on the wrong side of a Bitcoin move, as they can be quite brutal.

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Precious Metals: Retreating From Resistance After #Bullish Move (7 May 2024)

• Gold and Silver are holding up relatively well despite the generally strong bearish reversals we have recently seen in commodity markets.
• Silver is outperforming Gold, so traders should be more confident of being long of Silver than of Gold.
• Neither precious metal looks like an immediate buy. It will probably be wise to wait for Silver to clear $27.50 or for Gold to clear $2330 before entering any new long trades.
• Stock markets are generally rising again, which is probably good news for further rises in Gold and Silver.

Gold (XAU/USD): Technical Analysis

The price chart below shows that Gold is still established within a long-term bullish trend despite retreating from its record high made just a few weeks ago. Bulls still need caution as the price is not trading in blue sky and is prone to hitting resistance and swinging lower.

A few hours ago, the price made what seems to be a significant bearish reversal at the resistance level just below $2330. The price is currently sitting on the nearest support level at $2315 and looks quite likely to fall to $2308.

Silver is more bullish, but a long trade here in Gold could be a good idea if we get a bullish bounce at $2315, $2308, or even $2290. In the current technical circumstances where the price is not making any bullish breakouts, trading from bounces at support, even after a deep retracement, will likely be the best approach.

Silver (XAG/USD): Technical Analysis

The price chart below shows that Silver is still established within a long-term bullish trend despite retreating from its multi-year high made just a few weeks ago. Bulls still need caution as the price is not trading in blue sky and is prone to hitting resistance and swinging lower.

A few hours ago, the price made what seems to be a significant bearish reversal at the resistance level just below $27.50 which is a major quarter-number. The price is currently sitting on the nearest support level at $27.18 and looks quite likely to reject it, giving a possible long trade entry now.

A long trade here in Silver could be a good idea if we get a bullish bounce at $27.18, $27.00, or even $26.84. In the current technical circumstances where the price is not making any bullish breakouts, trading from bounces at support, even after a deep retracement, will likely be the best approach.

I see Silver as a better potential buy than Gold right now, but more conservative traders might prefer to wait for a bullish breakout above $27.50 instead of buying on the dip after a bounce at a key support level.

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USDMXN Analysis: Renewed Trend Lower on Speculative Bearish Trading (6 May 2024)

The USD/MXN has fought once again below the 17.00000 price level and Friday’s price action produced depths not seen since the middle of April.

• As of this writing the USD/MXN is trading near the 16.94820 ratio as the currency pair has been able to sustain momentum below the 17.00000 level.
• Sentiment in global Forex has produced a weaker USD recently and financial institutions reacted to Friday weaker than anticipated U.S jobs numbers with more selling pressure.
• The USD/MXN touched a low around 16.83000 on Friday in the midst of strong selling momentum.

While the lower depth was not able to be maintained, the reversal higher has been polite and the broad Forex market has also sustained a weaker USD centric stance today. Bearish momentum in the USD/MXN has been a solid factor over the long-term and the move above the 17.0000 which touched a high of around the 17.52000 mark (excluding the temporary spike caused by Middle East conflict concerns which touched the 18.16000 ratio) on the 19th of April has once again seen value turn lower.

USD/MXN and Support Levels as Sentiment Shifts

Bearish traders of the USD/MXN will certainly have their eyes on lower depths for the currency pair. On the 9th of April the USD/MXN traded around the 16.26250 level. Forex has been volatile over the past four months and this may continue still. However, recent U.S data may have started to create a shift once again in behavioral sentient regarding economic outlook and what the Federal Reserve will be able to do moving forward.

While inflation remains troubling in the U.S, last week’s weaker than expected earnings numbers may make financial institutions lean towards a weaker USD outlook. Now that the 17.00000 level in the USD/MXN has been proven vulnerable again and price action has been able to be kept below this mark, bearish traders may believe sentiment can take the USD/MXN back to known levels below.

Short-Term USD/MXN Bets

There will not be a lot of U.S economic data until later this week. Traders should keep their eyes on U.S Treasury yields; if these numbers stay muted through Wednesday and begin to decline it will likely help the USD become weaker.

• If the 16.91000 level is broken lower and sustained in the near term it would likely ignite more selling optimism for the USD/MXN.
• However traders should keep in mind the rather messy results produced in the broad Forex market the past 4 months full of reversals.
• Momentum lower might be wagered on, but sustainability is still more of a hope at this juncture as the Federal Reserve outlook still remains unclear for the mid-term.

USD/MXN Short Term Outlook:

Current Resistance: 16.95100

Current Support: 16.93010

High Target: 16.97500

Low Target: 16.89200

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Bitcoin Forex Signal: Bitcoin Forms a Bullish Pennant Pattern (6 May 2024)

Bullish view

• Buy the BTC/USD pair and set a take-profit at 66,000.
• Add a stop-loss at 62,000.
• Timeline: 1-2 days.

Bearish view

• Set a sell-stop at 63,000 and a take-profit at 60,000.
• Add a stop-loss at 66,000.

Bitcoin price staged a strong recovery in the past few days as a sense of calm returned to the market. The BTC/USD pair surged to over 64,000, which was much higher than this month’s low of 56,540.

A sense of calm returns

Bitcoin and other risk assets like global stocks have rebounded in the past few days as bad news became good news for the market. The Dow Jones index rose to over $38,800 while the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 soared to $17,900 and $5,130, respectively.

Meanwhile, the US dollar index (DXY) tumbled to a monthly low of $104.51 while bond yields slumped. The 10-year yield dropped to 4.50% while the 30-year and the 5-year fell to 4.66% and 4.48%, respectively.

This performance happened after the US published weak economic numbers last week, signaling that the Fed may deliver more rate cuts than expected. The first report came from the Conference Board, which revealed that consumer confidence dipped to its lowest point since 2022.

Further data by the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) revealed that the manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI numbers retreated in April. That is a sign that the economy was slowing.

And finally, the most-anticipated jobs report revealed that the economy added fewer jobs than expected while the unemployment rate rose to 3.9%. The economy added 175k jobs, down from 315k in March. The average hourly earnings fell to 3.9%, missing the estimated 4.0%.

The implication of all this is that the Fed will start to cut interest rates in the coming months. Analysts see the bank delivering two cuts later this year. This is in line with the Fed’s meeting, in which the officials noted that they would be data-dependent.

BTC/USD forecast

The BTC/USD pair has been in a strong recovery in the past few days as some Bitcoin ETFs added some inflows. On the 4H chart, the 25-period and 50-period moving averages have formed a bullish crossover.

Bitcoin has also formed a bullish pennant pattern, which is a positive sign. The MACD indicator has moved above the neutral level while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is approaching the overbought point.

Therefore, the pair will likely continue rising as buyers target the key resistance at 66,000. The alternative scenario is where it drops to the intersection of the 25 and 50-period moving averages at 62,000.

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Gold Forecast: Will Upward Pressure Continue? (6 May 2024)

• Gold was all over the place during the trading session on Friday as the jobs numbers came out lower than anticipated.
• Looking at the shorter term charts, the market had initially swung all the way up to the $2,323 level in the $2,275 level and then turned around to basically close in the middle of the day at the middle of the candlestick.
• So, a lot of noise for no particular reason. It is interesting to note that we are right around the $2,300 level and that of course is an area that a lot of people will pay attention to as it is a large round psychologically significant figure.

That being said, if we can take out the top of the candlestick from the Friday session, I suspect that we may continue to see upward pressure. There are plenty of reasons to think that gold may continue to go higher, not the least of which, of course, is geopolitical concerns. Even if we broke down below the bottom of the candlestick for the day, then the 50-day EMA right around the $2,250 level and then eventually the $2,200 level, both could offer a significant amount of support.

External Pressures

Pay attention to interest rates, because if it looks like traders are betting on the Fed cutting rates sooner rather than later, that will also help gold. This is a chart that is very technically sound and despite the fact that we got thrown around quite a bit on Friday, the reality is, this is still a very bullish market.

Because of this, I have no interest whatsoever in trying to get short of the gold market, and most of my energy is focused on trying to find a decent entry point. Over the longer term, I would not be surprised at all to see the gold market go much higher, perhaps even reaching $2,500 given enough time. On the downside, even if we break down below the $2,200 level, I think there are plenty of buyers underneath it might jump into the market in trying to take advantage of “cheap ounces.”

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