USDSGD Forecast: Noisy Behavior Ahead (21 June 2024)

• The US dollar has rallied rather significantly against the Singapore dollar during the trading session on Thursday, as we have used the 50-Day EMA as a bit of a springboard.
• At this point in time, we need to pay close attention to the resistance level above though, as the 1.3550 level has been a bit difficult to overcome.
• However, you should also keep in mind that the US dollar has been strong against almost everything during the session, so it does make a certain amount of sense that the Singapore dollar would continue to struggle against it.
• Because of this, the market is likely to continue to see a lot of noisy behavior.

Safety Versus Safety

These are both safety currencies, so you need to pay close attention to risk appetite but at the end of the day, the world prefers US dollars over Singapore dollar is when it comes to trying to find safety. Furthermore, the Swiss National Bank cut rates during the early hours of the session, and therefore it has created a little bit of a “knock on effect” in the US dollar as traders continue to focus on the fact that the Federal Reserve is likely to stay tight for the time being. This makes the US dollar much more attractive because it offers more yield than most other currencies, and the massive interest rate differential between the United States and Singapore continues to have people looking to the greenback to get paid.

All things being equal, we are still very much in the consolidation area see you do need to be cautious about the idea of trying to get too aggressive, but ultimately, I think you have to recognize the fact that eventually we will break out of the very clearly defined 100 point range, and once we do it opens up the possibility of a bigger move. The question now is whether or not the United States dollar is going to continue to see a lot of inflows, or if fear subsides?

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USDSGD Analysis: Surge Higher and Cautious Trading Attitudes Simmer: 11 JUNE 2024

The USD/SGD has surged higher and kept its values in a sustained range after the U.S jobs numbers last Friday sparked buying momentum.

• The USD/SGD is trading near the 1.35320 ratio as of this writing with typical fast trading taking place.
• The USD/SGD was trading around the 1.34395 ratio and testing the week’s low last Friday, but then the U.S jobs numbers came in higher than expected regarding the headline report with better job creation.
• The USD/SGD followed the broad Forex market and witnessed a strong buying surge as cautious sentiment ripped through the air.

Trading yesterday and today has remained cautious and there have been little to no signs of a strong reversals lower in the USD/SGD. Financial institutions are clearly playing it safe until tomorrow’s U.S Consumer Price Index numbers and Federal Reserve FOMC meeting announcements. The inflation report tomorrow is certain to cause a bit of a storm early, but the Fed’s policy rhetoric later in the day will stir the Forex market including the USD/SGD.

Swift Reaction on Friday and Change of Sentiment in the USD/SGD

The USD/SGD went from being within sight of its one month lows on Friday to a rapid climb higher as behavioral sentiment shifted quickly. Financial houses have clearly been betting on a more dovish sounding Federal Reserve, and once again they were delivered a fresh reminder why the USD/SGD and all other currencies teamed against the USD this year have suffered choppy trading. U.S data remains complex and the results are not allowing for a clear outlook.

While USD/SGD traders may believe the currency pair has been overbought, financial institutions in the short-term may want solid data and dovish monetary policy statements from the U.S tomorrow before they try to sell. The 1.35000 level has once again become a strong indication of sentiment and for the moment the USD/SGD remains comfortably above this ratio as it actually trades within the higher part of its one month price range.

Risk Management and Coming Reactions in the USD/SGD

Although traders will certainly react to tomorrow’s inflation numbers from the U.S, if the data comes in around what is expected all attention will turn to the Fed. But if the CPI numbers do come in weaker it could spark selling of the USD/SGDP, yet traders need to be reminded inflation data from the States has proven problematic all year and reactions to the numbers have caused Forex choppiness for the USD/SGD.

• The Fed will not lower its Federal Funds Rate tomorrow, but if it sounds more dovish about the mid and long-term this could soothe nervous traders and help the USD/SGD lower.
• Support and resistance levels will widen before the CPI data and the FOMC rhetoric on Wednesday.

Singapore Dollar Short Term Outlook:

Current Resistance: 1.35375

Current Support: 1.35240

High Target: 1.35490

Low Target: 1.35090

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USDSGD Forecast: Overall Consolidation (4 June 2024)

• The US dollar initially tried to rally a bit during the trading session on Monday, but as the session dragged on, we started to see the Singapore dollar strengthen.
• We are currently trading around a couple of major moving averages, but the real problem during the session, at least as far as I can tell, was the PMI numbers coming out much weaker than anticipated.
• At least in the ISM manufacturing PMI figures.

The S&P Global manufacturing PMI numbers came out better than anticipated, so it’s a mixed bag. With that being the case, it does make a certain amount of sense that we may continue the overall consolidation. It’s worth noting that we have sliced through the 200 day EMA, but it’s flat anyway, so I don’t know how much I read into it.

A Magnet for Price

The 1.35 area seems to be a bit of a magnet for price, and therefore I think could be your mean for the moment. Just have to wait and see. But right now, I think we’re just trying to sort out whether or not we rally from here or if we break back down. I suspect that if we can recapture the 1.3533 level, then the US dollar will continue to climb against the Singapore dollar, and you might see the US dollar strengthen.

Overall, keep in mind that USD/SGD is considered to be safety currency at one point or another, depending on what’s going on. I do think you’ve got a situation where traders will continue to look at this through the prism of perhaps being able to take advantage of value. But if we were to break down below the 1.3420 level, that could open up the market to fresh selling. In that environment, we probably see the US dollar struggle against almost everything, not just the Singapore dollar. In other words, this is a very US centric type of currency market at the moment as we try to sort out what’s going on with the US economy.

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#USDSGD: Short-Term Highs as Curious Resistance Develops Too (14 NOV 2023)

Support levels are clearly near the 1.36000 level and short-term speculators are likely targeting this psychological mark.

The USD/SGD is trading near the 1.36060 ratio as of this writing after making a high for the week only a handful of hours ago when it challenged the 1.36175 area. Curiously near-term trading results have produced a rather solid-looking resistance fight the past handful of days even as the USD/SGD moves near these highs. While a one-week chart shows the USD/SGD is stronger, a one-month chart offers another perception and this is that resistance levels near 1.36100 to 1.36200 appear to be values where selling develops. It appears large players are positioning for the potential of lower moves in the USD/SGD over the mid-term.

While other major currency pairs have seen some selling develop against the USD in recent trading, the USD/SGD has been able to actually maintain a battle for highs. This calls into question financial institutions and their dynamics as they are confronted by a rather strong dose of risk-adverse conditions while possibly perceiving the USD/SGD remains overbought. The USD/SGD will prove extremely interesting today as a barometer for other major currencies. Volatility may become rather pronounced in the USD/SGD and the broad markets Forex today and tomorrow globally.

Important Inflation Data from the U.S Coming Today and Tomorrow

The U.S. will publish Consumer Price Index reports today, which will deliver important insights regarding current inflation levels. The U.S. Federal Reserve while holding its Federal Funds Rate in place on the 1st of November remains rather aggressive regarding its rhetoric. Weaker-than-expected inflation numbers today and via tomorrow’s PPI results would likely ignite potential selling within the USD/SGD and other major currencies. But this is a big ‘if’, because inflation has been extremely stubborn and it might prove to be only wishful thinking that inflation is going show a decline via the CPI and PPI reports.

Support levels are clearly near the 1.36000 level and short-term speculators are likely targeting this psychological mark. Trading today and tomorrow in the USD/SGD is likely to be rather volatile as a combination of U.S economic reports are studied and U.S Treasury yields are watched. While yields in U.S bonds did come down a bit yesterday, a sustained decline is certainly desired by Forex traders who want to sell the USD.

Nimble Trading and Solid Risk Management for the USD/SGD Needed

• Traders should not be overly ambitious with their trading positions today in the USD/SGD and be ready for volatility, particularly if surprises emerge via the CPI results.
• Tomorrow the U.S will issue the Producer Price Index statistics, but also the Retail Sales numbers will be published.
• Traders in the USD/SGD should watch the markets closely as risk appetite and risk adverse sentiment creates a battle for momentum. Choppy conditions should be expected today and tomorrow.

Singapore Dollar Short-Term Outlook:

Current Resistance: 1.36130

Current Support: 1.36000

High Target: 1.36295

Low Target: 1.35720

 

 

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#EURUSD Tumbles While #USDJPY Seems Unstoppable (4 OCT 2023)

EUR/USD remained in a bearish zone and declined below 1.0530. USD/JPY is again rising and might climb toward the 150.00 level.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/JPY Analysis Today

• The Euro started a fresh decline below the 1.0530 support zone.
• There is a short-term bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.0475 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen.
• USD/JPY climbed higher above the 148.00 and 148.75 levels.
• There was a rejection noticed near a bearish trend line at 150.15 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen, the pair remained in a bearish zone below the 1.0650 level, as mentioned in the previous analysis. The Euro declined below the 1.0530 support zone against the US Dollar.

The pair even settled below the 1.0500 zone and the 50-hour simple moving average. A low is formed near 1.0448 and the pair is now consolidating losses. On the upside, the pair is now facing resistance near a short-term bearish trend line at 1.0475.

 

 

The next key resistance is near the 50-hour simple moving average and the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.0617 swing high to the 1.0448 low at 1.0485.

A clear move above the 1.0485 level could send the pair toward the 1.0530 resistance. It is close to the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.0617 swing high to the 1.0448 low. An upside break above 1.0530 could set the pace for another increase. In the stated case, the pair might rise toward 1.0615.

If not, the pair might resume its decline. The first major support on the EUR/USD chart is near 1.0450. The next key support is at 1.0420. If there is a downside break below 1.0420, the pair could drop toward 1.0380. The next support is near 1.0335, below which the pair could start a major decline.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of USD/JPY at FXOpen, the pair started a decent increase from the 145.00 zone. The US Dollar gained bullish momentum above 148.00 against the Japanese Yen.

It settled above the 50-hour simple moving average and 148.75. However, the pair faced a rejection noticed near a bearish trend line at 150.15. There was a sharp decline below the 148.00 level. However, it turned out to be a false move and the price trimmed most losses.

 

 

It is back above the 148.75 level and the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 150.15 swing high to the 147.32 low.

Immediate resistance on the USD/JPY chart is near the 50-hour simple moving average at 149.50. It is close to the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 150.15 swing high to the 147.32 low.

The first major resistance is near 150.15. If there is a close above the 150.15 level and the RSI moves above 50, the pair could rise toward 151.20. The next major resistance is near 152.00, above which the pair could test 153.50 in the coming days.

On the downside, the first major support is near 148.75. The next major support is 148.00. If there is a close below 148.00, the pair could decline steadily.

In the stated case, the pair might drop toward the 147.30 support zone. The next stop for the bears may perhaps be near the 145.50 region.

This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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#USDJPY Eyes Fresh Increase Above 147.00 (01 Sep 2023)

Key Highlights

• USD/JPY is consolidating above the 145.50 support.
• A key bullish trend line is forming with support near 145.50 on the 4-hour chart.
• EUR/USD struggled to clear the 1.0940 and trimmed gains.
• The US nonfarm payrolls could increase by 170K in August 2023.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

The US Dollar started a short-term downside correction from the 147.40 zone against the Japanese Yen. USD/JPY declined below the 147.00 and 146.50 levels.

 

 

Looking at the 4-hour chart, the pair is still trading well above the 145.00 support, the 100 simple moving average (red, 4 hours), and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4 hours).

It is now consolidating and might attempt a fresh increase. On the upside, an initial resistance is near the 146.35 level. The first major resistance is near the 146.50 level.

A close above 146.50 could start a decent increase. In the stated case, the pair could rise toward the 147.40 level. Any more gains could send the pair toward the 148.00 level.

If not, the pair might start a fresh decline below the 145.65 support. The next key support is seen near the 145.50 level. There is also a key bullish trend line forming with support near 145.50 on the same chart.

If there is a move below 145.50, the pair could dive toward 145.20. Any more losses might send the pair toward the 144.50 level.

Looking at EUR/USD, the pair struggled to recover above the 1.0940 zone, faced rejection, and started a fresh decline.

Economic Releases

• Germany’s Manufacturing PMI for August 2023 Euro Zone Manufacturing PMI for August 2023
• UK Manufacturing PMI for August 2023
• US ISM Manufacturing PMI for August 2023
• US nonfarm payrolls for August 2023
• US Unemployment Rate for August 2023

 

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