Canadian #Dollar Awaits #CPI: Forecasts for #USDCAD & #CADJPY (21 May 2024)

• The Canadian Dollar has been consolidating for several days below a key resistance level.
• The Yen has long term weakness, so long CAD/JPY could be a good trade if higher than expected Canadian CPI data is released later today, as this will likely strengthen CAD.

Canadian Dollar Index (CXY): Technical Analysis

The Canadian Dollar has been consolidating for a few days just below the key resistance level shown in the price chart below at 73.52. This follows a rise from April’s lows, which were produced by a continuing downwards trend since the start of 2024. This is an interesting recovery, and the Index now seems to be at a pivotal point, having already likely broken any convincing bearish trend line which could be drawn.

The short-term price action looks bullish as the price tests this resistance level again and again over recent days. However, if it continues to hold, the price action will eventually turn bearish.

If the price can get established above 73.52, it is likely to rise further, at least to the next resistance level at 74.11. so that could facilitate a good long trade.

The Forex market is relatively quiet right now, moving little.

Canadian Dollar Index (CXY): Fundamental Analysis

It is not surprising that the price is now at a pivotal point, as markets are awaiting the release of crucial Canadian inflation data, which is expected to show a decline in month-on-month inflation from 0.6% to 0.5%. If the number is higher than expected, it could be bullish for the Loonie.

The big surprise might be on the other side, with inflation falling even faster than expected. That could open up a real prospect of quicker rate cuts and that could see the Loonie sell off with some momentum, even if it does not last for very long.

USD/CAD Forecast: Technical Analysis

The USD/CAD currency pair has been consolidating for the past few days. This is not surprising as the Canadian Dollar and US Dollar have both been consolidating as individual currencies, so this pair is especially range bound between $1.3590 and $1.3662.

The price is near the top of its recent range where we already see a triple top, so if the price can rise much higher now that will likely be a bullish sign.

A bullish factor is the new higher support level at $1.3627 which has been generated by the recent bullish price action rejecting an earlier minor bearish inflection. This could provide a good floor for a long trade.

If Canadian CPI is lower than expected, then a bullish breakout is likely.

If Canadian CPI is higher than expected, but not by much, the price could fall quickly to $1.3590, where it might bounce hard, giving scope for a long trade there if that happens.

Support Levels:

• $1.3627
• $1.3590
• $1.3556

Resistance Levels:

• $1.3662
• $1.3704
• $1.3738

CAD/JPY Forecast: Technical Analysis

The CAD/JPY currency cross has sold off somewhat after making a new 3-week high price. This is not surprising as although the Canadian Dollar has been consolidating over recent days, the Japanese Yen is in a long-term bearish trend.

The price is falling with short-term bearish momentum towards support at ¥114.19. We may see a bullish bounce there if the level is reached.

If Canadian CPI is lower than expected, then the price will likely fall to either of the nearby support levels, and may produce a quick bounce there, giving a chance to enter a long trade on a scalping basis.

If Canadian CPI is higher than expected, this will likely be a great currency pair to use to exploit that by going long, as the price will likely shoot up to at least ¥115.00.

Support Levels:

• ¥114.19
• ¥113.66

Resistance Levels:

• ¥115.00
• ¥116.00

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Weekly Forex Technical Analysis (15-19 November 2021): US Dollar Index,EURUSD,GBPJPY,AUDJPY,USDJPY AND GBPCHF

Technical Analysis

U.S. Dollar Index

The weekly price chart below shows the U.S. Dollar Index printed a bullish candlestick last week, again making its highest weekly closing price in over one year. The price is showing short-term bullish momentum, and the price is of course above its levels from 3 and 6 months ago, which shows that the long-term bullish trend in the greenback is still valid. Notably, the price is now bumping into a very key resistance zone for the USD, shown in the price chart below at 12140/58. If the price can break and hold above 12158 next week, that could be a key long-term bullish breakout.

Thebest strategy in the Forex market over the coming week will probably be to look for long trades in commodities, or in long USD Forex trades.

EUR/USD

This major currency pair has been in along-term bearish trend since May,but with deep bullish retracements, making it difficult to trade. However, last week saw the price fall sharply, especially on Wednesday following the U.S. inflation data release. The week ended at a 15-month low closing price, and the price closed very near its low, which is a bearish sign.

This currency pair is likely to fall further over the coming days, with no key support levels above the $1.1400 area.

Traders do need to be careful with this currency pair to only trade short when the short-term momentum is bearish.

AUD/JPY

We had expected the level at 83.02 might act as support, as it had acted previously as both support and resistance. Note how these “flipping” levels can work well. The H1 chart below shows how the price action rejected this level with a large near-engulfing candlestickright at the end of last Wednesday’s Asian session (typically one of the best times to trade currency pairs involving Asian currencies such as these) marked by the up arrow in the price chart below.

The trade has so far given a maximum reward to risk ratio of about 4 to 1 based on the size of the entry candlestick structure.

GBP/JPY

The British pound initially tried to rally against the Japanese yen last week but gave back the gains to crash into the ¥152.50 level. This is an area that would continue to be very supportive, but it is worth noting that the British pound has struggled across the board. With the Bank of England now dovish, it should continue to weigh upon the pound in general. That being said, though, the GBP/JPY is likely to be a little bit more sluggish than some of the other British pound-related pairs, simply because the Japanese yen is so weak itself. I would anticipate that rallies are going to continue to be sold into as we try to get down to the ¥150 level.

USD/JPY

The US dollar had initially fallen pretty hard during the course of the week but found enough support underneath to turn things around and show signs of life again. We reached towards the crucial ¥112.50 level, but then turned around to rally quite significantly. By the end of the week, we ended up staying within the flagging pattern that we have been in for a while. At this point, I think this remains a “buy on the dips market” going forward. The ¥115 level above is a major resistance barrier that must be acknowledged. Anything above there could open up a longer-term “buy-and-hold” scenario.

GBP/CHF

The British pound initially tried to rally against the Swiss franc but gave back gains during the course of the week to close near the 1.2350 level. At this point, it looks like we are still trying to make a move towards 1.22 handle, so I like the idea of shorting this market on little rallies that show signs of exhaustion. Ultimately, if we can break down below the 1.22 handle, we could see a move towards 1.18 level.

Bottom Line

I see the best opportunities in the financial markets this weekaslikely to be short EUR/USD, and long USD/TRY and Wheat.

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Weekly Forex Technical Analysis (8-12 NOV 2021): US Dollar Index,NASDAQ100,SP500,AUDUSD,GBPJPY,EURUSD,GBPCAD,USDCAD,GBPJPY AND GBPUSD

U.S. Dollar Index

The weekly price chart below shows the U.S. Dollar Index printed a bullish candlestick last week, making its highest weekly closing price in over one year. The price is showing weak short-term bullish momentum, and the price is of course above its levels from 3 and 6 months ago, which shows that the long-term bullish trend in the greenback is still valid. Thebest strategy in the Forex market over the coming week will probably be to look for long trades in stocks or commodities, or in long USD Forex trades.

GBP/USD

This major currency pair has been in a the long-term bearish trend since May,but with deep bullish retracements, making it difficult to trade. However, following the Bank of England’s slow reaction to changing monetary conditions last week, we saw a sharp drop ending inthe lowest weekly close here made in the last 10 months. Despite this, it should be noted that the price has not yet exceeded last week’s low, made at the support level of $1.3411.

If we get a daily (New York) close below $1.3411 – or ideally, below $1.3400 – we will probably see yet more downwards price movement, so there is likely to be a short trade opportunity here if this scenario plays out.

Traders do need to be careful to only trade short when the short-term momentum is bearish.

S&P 500 Index

After trading below its 100-day moving average just a few weeks ago, the major US stock index has been roaring ahead for the past five weeks, rising in value during this time by about 8%.The end of last week saw the price reach another new all-time high, after having traded above the round number at 4700 for the first time.

The weekly candlestick was solidly bullish and closed not far from the top of its price range. This, and the record high, are bullish signs.

The S&P 500 Index looks likely to remain a good potential buy.

NASDAQ 100 Index

After trading below its 100-day moving average just a few weeks ago, the major US technology stock index has been roaring ahead for the past five weeks, rising in value during this time by about 11%.Last week saw the price close at another new all-time high.

The weekly candlestick was solidly bullish and closed near the top of its price range. This, the above-average weekly price range, and the record high, are all bullish signs.

The NASDAQ 100 Index looks likely to be a good buy.

AUD/USD

We had expected the level at 0.7366 might act as resistance, as it had acted previously as both support and resistance. Note how these “flipping” levels can work well. The H1 chart below shows how the price action rejected this level with a large bullishoutside barright at the start of last Friday’s New York / London overlap session (typically one of the best times to trade currency pairs) marked by the up arrow in the price chart below.

GBP/JPY

The British pound got absolutely crushed last week after the Bank of England decided not to taper its bond purchasing program.The pound fell all the way down towards the ¥153 level, which suggests that we probably are going to test the purple box that I have on the chart, which should be supportive. Between here and the ¥152 level, I would anticipate some type of bounce, and if we do get that bounce, I think it could be a nice buying opportunity. If we break down below the ¥152 level, then we go looking towards the ¥150 region.

EUR/USD

The euro was all over the place last week to form a bit of a neutral candlestick. I believe we will probably continue to see a lot of that sideways action, but if we turn around and break above the 1.16 level again, then I think the market may try to recover. This will be all about the US dollar, and not necessarily the euro itself. I do anticipate that the euro is going to be very noisy, and I think short-term traders will continue to bounce this thing around between 1.15 and 1.16 before making a much longer-term move.

Bottom Line

I see the best opportunities in the financial markets this weekaslikely to belong of the S&P 500 & NASDAQ 500 Indices in US dollar terms, and long USD/TRYand short GBP/USD following respective daily (New York) closes beyond the long-term high or low closing prices.

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Intraday Market Analysis – USD Consolidates Gains,XAGUSD to test critical ceiling and SPX 500 tests all-time high(22 October 2021)

USDJPY seeks support

The US dollar steadies over lower-than-expected initial jobless claims.

Sentiment remains upbeat, however, the pair is struggling to climb past the psychological level of 115.00, probably due to overextension. The RSI’s double top in the overbought area and bearish divergence suggests that the rally could be losing steam.

A breach below 113.90 would prompt weaker hands to exit, leading to a pullback towards 113.00. A rebound past the said resistance would send the price to March 2017’s high of 115.40.

XAGUSD to test critical ceiling

Silver stalls as the greenback reclaims some lost ground. The break above the round number of 24.00 indicates strong commitment from the buy-side.

The bulls are looking at the major resistance at 24.80 from the daily timeframe, as a breakout would end a five-month-long correction and pave the way for a bullish reversal.

However, an overbought RSI coupled with a bearish divergence suggests possible exhaustion in the run-up. 23.60 would be the first level to watch for if the price pulls lower in search of support.

SPX 500 tests all-time high

The S&P 500 flies high supported by better-than-expected third-quarter earnings. The index has reached the previous all-time high at 4550.

A breakout may trigger a runaway rally. Nonetheless, a repeatedly overbought RSI may cause a limited pullback as buyers take profit.

A drop below the immediate support at 4515 would pull the trigger. 4445 would be next as it coincides with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the October rally. The bulls are likely to buy the dips though after sentiment turns optimistic.

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Weekly Forex Technical Analysis 20-24 September 2021: US Dollar Index, NASDAQ100 Index, SP500 Index, EURUSD, GBPJPY, CADJPY, AUDUSD and USDCHF

Get the Forex Forecast using fundamentals, sentiment, and technical positions analyses for major pairs for the week of September 20, 2021 here.

Technical Analysis

U.S. Dollar Index

The weekly price chart below shows the U.S. Dollar Index printed a bullish candlestick last week which again rejected the zone of support which I have identified between 11899 and 11833. The price is still above the levels from 3 and 6 months ago, which shows that the long-term bullish trend in the greenback is still valid. We also have some bullish momentum evidenced by the fact that the weekly candlestick closed right at the top of its range. This suggests thattrades in the USD look better on the long rather than short side right now, so the best strategy in the Forex market over the coming week will probably be to look for long trades in US dollar currency pairs.

AUD/USD

The AUD/USD currency pair fell firmly last week, printing a bearish candlestick that closed right on its low.This currency pair is showing the highest medium-term volatilityin the Forex market right now. This was a movement in line with the long-term bearish trend, evidenced by the fact that the price is below its levels from both 3 and six months ago. As market sentiment has turned risk-off and the AUD has become a key risk barometer currency, there could be another good short trade opportunity here over the coming week. Waiting for the end of Monday’s market and then trading any breakdown from Monday’s range short could be a good approach here.

USD/CHF

The USD/CHF currency pair rose strongly over the final two days of last week, printing a bullish weekly candlestick that closed right on its high.This currency pair stood out in recent days as it broke to a new long-term high price. There could be another good short trade opportunity here over the coming week, but traders should be at least a little cautious as this currency pair does not tend to trade. Looking for long trades following shallow pullbacks on short-term price charts could be a great strategy for trading this currency pair, at least at the start of this coming week.

EURJPY

We had expected the level at 128.69 might act as support, as it had acted previously as both support and resistance. Note how these “flipping” levels can work well. The H1 chart below shows how the price rejected this level with an inside bar just before last Thursday’s New York open (typically a great time to be trading Forex currency pairs) marked by the up arrow in the price chart below. This trade has been nicely profitable, achieving a maximum positive reward to risk ratio so far of more than 3 to 1 based upon the size of the entry candlestick structure.

EUR/USD

The euro initially tried to rally last week, reaching towards the 1.1850 level before falling apart. At this point, the market has crossed below the 1.18 level and the 1.1750 level after that. In general, this is a market that I think continues to see negativity as we have closed towards the bottom of the weekly candlestick. The market is likely to go looking towards the 1.16 level. That is an area that has been massive support, so I think it has to be tested rather soon. In the short term, I think you should looking for signs of exhaustion on short-term charts to start selling.

GBPJPY

The British pound has rallied to kick off the week, only to turn around at the ¥153 level. The market has collapsed as we are starting to see a lot of negativity. The market is closing towards the bottom of the week, which does suggest that we are ready to go lower, perhaps reaching towards the ¥150 level. That is an area that I think kicks off a lot of support extending all the way down to the ¥149 level. If we were to break down below there, the market then would fall apart. In fact, you could even make an argument that we have formed a bit of a head and shoulders.

CADJPY

The Canadian dollar initially tried to rally against the Japanese yen but as you can see, we have fallen apart. The ¥85 level underneath is massive support, so if we can turn around and break down below there, the market is likely to go looking towards the ¥81 level. Rallies at this point will continue to struggle until we can get above the ¥88 level.It is worth noting that the Canadian dollar has been struggling even though the oil markets have been rather strong.

Bottom Line

I see the best opportunity in the financial markets this weekaslikely to be in swing trades in the AUD/USD currency pair, on the short side, and short-term day trades long in the USD/CHF currency pair.

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🎯Live #Forex Signal |#USDCAD: 29 July 2021🎯

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Tp 1.2447
Tp 1.2403

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WEEKLY FORECAST: US Dollar Index, EURUSD, USDCAD, Gold, GBPJPY and GBPUSD: 24-28 May 2021

Technical Analysis

U.S. Dollar Index

The weekly price chart below shows the U.S. Dollar Index printed an indecisive though perhaps slightly bearish doji candlestick last week. The index is still below its price from six months ago, which is another a bearish sign, but is now above its price from three months ago, which makes the picture more uncertain. Overall, next week’s price movement in the U.S. dollar looks very slightly more likely to be downwards than upwards but remains very uncertain.

USD/CAD

Although the Canadian dollar does not have a good track record of respecting its own price momentum, the chart below shows we have seen a firm and persistent long-term bullish trend in the Loonie ever since the initial recovery from the coronavirus price shock of March 2020. Last week again saw a bearish candlestick print, with this currency pair now making a new 3.5-year low price. We can therefore say there is a strong long-term bearish trend, although bears should be cautious of the big round number at 1.2000

Gold

Gold again saw a firm advance during the week to reach a new 50-day high price and end the week near the top of its weekly price range. The price is now considerably higher than it was 3 months ago, which is normally a good measure of a bullish trend. Although the breakout here is not especially strong, gold does have a good historical record on the long side when it begins to break to new long-term highs.

EUR/USD

The euro initially shot higher during the trading session at the end of the week but gave back the gains above the 1.22 handle. By doing so, the market ended up formed a bit of a shooting star, showing some hesitation. In general, this is a market that I think will continue to be very noisy, but will also be a “buy on the dips” scenario as the US dollar continues to struggle. The 1.20 level underneath is a large, round, psychologically significant figure that a lot of people will be paying attention to.

GBP/JPY

The British pound has gone back and forth against the Japanese yen during the week as we had reached towards the ¥155 level, but gave back the gains to form a neutral candlestick. This tells me that the market is very likely to pull back from here, but just like the euro, I believe that this is a market that will find plenty of buyers underneath that could get involved. With that being the case, I think we should wait until we get down to about the ¥153 level to start looking for an opportunity. Alternately, if we do break above the ¥155 level, it would be a major breakout and we could go much higher.

GBP/USD

The British pound rallied significantly during the week to test the 1.42 handle but gave back the gains to show signs of hesitation. By doing so, the market did end up forming a bit of a shooting star, which suggests that we could pull back. By pulling back, I suspect that the buyers would be looking towards the 1.40 level, an area that had been massive support as well as resistance. That being the case, I think that pullbacks should be thought of as an opportunity to take advantage of what is a very strong uptrend.

Bottom Line

I see the best likely opportunities in the financial markets this week as being short of the USD/CAD currency pair, and long of gold in USD terms

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DAX ,FTSE 100 AND USDCAD Forecast: 14 May 2021

DAX Forecast: Bounces from Big Figure

The DAX fell initially during the course of the trading session to reach down towards the 15,000 level, an area that has been important more than once. Obviously, the 15,000 level would attract a lot of attention and that is exactly what happened later in the session on Tuesday. The 50 day EMA is starting to reach towards that area as well, and that comes into play. The 15,000 level is a support level while the 15,500 level above is resistance. We are simply consolidating after a huge move to the upside.

If we break down below the 50 day EMA, then it is likely the market goes looking towards the 14,500 level. That is an area where we had recently seen support, so I would expect to see it again. If we break down below there, then the DAX goes looking towards the 14,000 level. All things being equal, this is a market that has been bullish for a while, but the occasional pullback should only end up being a buying opportunity. In general, I do not have any interest in trying to short this market as it is a longer-term move. I do like the idea of finding value in a place like the DAX, which of course is widely influenced by the reopening trade as Germany is a major industrial hub for the European Union. This is a market that eventually should go looking towards the highs but will obviously need either a couple of days stabilizing, or some type of catalyst to go long again. In the short term, I think it is noisy but there is no way I would be a seller.

FTSE 100 Forecast: Finding Support in Familiar Area

The FTSE 100 has pulled back significantly during the course of the trading session on Tuesday to reach down towards the 6900 level. This is an area that has been important more than once, as we have seen buyers and sellers here. The size of the candlestick is of course very negative, and therefore I think it is going to be a potential negative sign for the short term.

All things been equal, this is a market that continues to see the 50 day EMA as an important technical indicator to follow, and therefore I think it is only a matter of time before we would have value hunters coming back into this market, right along with other stock markets around the world. It is very likely that we would see people looking to take advantage of the massive liquidity situation will have around the world. After all, that has been the case for quite some time, but of course it is not quite as out-of-control as the US stock markets can be, but the FTSE 100 continues to look bullish longer term despite the fact that we have seen such a significant selloff. I think we may have a little bit of stabilization ahead of us, and if we get that then I think it is only a matter of time before we would see a lot of money flowing right back into the stock markets as traders still focus on the reopening trade more than anything else. That being said, if we were to break down below the 6800 level, we probably go down towards the 200 day EMA which is currently at the 6550 region.

USD/CAD: Sustained Low Values Testing Speculative Perception

The USD/CAD remains near incredibly important long-term support values and has produced a rather steady range the past two days.

The ability of the USD/CAD to sustain its lower values the past couple of days after displaying strong bearish momentum has certainly gotten the attention of speculators.

Trading within the USD/CAD produced fast results the past few weeks. On the 21st of April, the Forex pair was trading near 1.26300 briefly.

The last time the current values of the USD/CAD were traded was in late August and early September of 2017 – this was a one week period.

This underscores the notion from a risk/reward scenario that while vital support is being tested and may not appear to have much room to traverse lower technically, it still may actually be bearish momentum which should be pursued. The lon-term trend of the USD/CAD may not be ready to reverse quite yet, and speculating on downside action remains an attractive trading option. Caution should be used, and traders may want to wait for slight moves higher to activate their selling positions which target support levels below.

Canadian Dollar Short-Term Outlook:

Current Resistance: 1.21130
Current Support: 1.20840
High Target: 1.21480
Low Target: 1.20500

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