A major bullish trend line is forming with support at 159.80 on the 4-hour chart.
EUR/USD is consolidating above the 1.0670 support zone.
GBP/USD spiked lower toward 1.2600 before it recovered some losses.
USD/JPY Technical Analysis
The US Dollar remained in a strong uptrend above the 157.50 level against the Japanese Yen. USD/JPY cleared the 160.00 resistance to move further into a positive zone.
Looking at the 4-hour chart, the pair settled above the 160.00 level, the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour), and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour). The bulls remained in control and even pumped the pair toward the 160.80 zone.
On the upside, the pair is facing resistance near the 160.85 level. The next resistance sits at 161.20. The first major resistance is near the 162.00 level.
A clear move above the 162.00 resistance might send it toward the 162.50 level. Any more gains might open the doors for a test of the 165.00 zone and a new all-time high in the coming days.
Immediate support is near the 160.00 level or the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 158.73 swing low to the 160.86 high. The next major support is near the 159.80 level. There is also a crucial bullish trend line forming with support at 159.80 on the same chart.
The trend line coincides with the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 158.73 swing low to the 160.86 high. A downside break and close below the 159.80 support zone could open the doors for a larger decline. In the stated case, the pair could decline toward the 159.20 level.
Looking at EUR/USD, the pair remained stable above the 1.0670 support zone and is now attempting a short-term recovery wave.
Economic Releases
US Personal Income for May 2024
US Core Personal Consumption Expenditure for May 2024
To get ACCURATE LIVE ACCURATE 2-3 TRADES (Forex/Comex/Stocks) Telegram Financial Advisor
Hawkish remarks from Fed Chair Powell and ongoing tension in the Middle East saw the US Dollar continue to gain while stocks and most commodities sold off firmly, excepting precious metals.
Fundamental Analysis & Market Sentiment
Long of the NASDAQ 100 Index following a daily close above 18400. This did not set up.
Long of Gold following a daily close above $2373. This set up last Monday and gave a winning trade of 0.36%.
Long of Silver following a daily close above $28.45. This set up last Monday and gave a losing trade of 0.66%.
Long of the USD/JPY currency pair. This gave a winning trade of 1.03%.
Long of Gasoline futures following a daily close above 2.8516. This did not set up.
Long of Cocoa Futures, but with only half a normal position size. This gave a winning trade of 4.27%.
The overall result was a net win of 5.00%, resulting in a gain of 0.83% per asset.
Last week saw unchanged volatility in the Forex market, which has been relatively low since 2024 started.
Last week’s key event was Fed Chair Jerome Powell making clear that there has not yet been enough progress on inflation to justify imminent rate cuts. This is not a new message at all, but it did produce more of a hawkish tilt to general market sentiment. This risk-off sentiment was given a boost by the first direct attack by Iran on Israel and the Israeli retaliation which followed some days later.
Bearishness in stock markets was very notable this week. We may be entering a new environment for stock markets, with major US indices finally giving exit signals to trend traders after a lengthy bull run, as prices fall to levels well off recent highs.
Other important data was a slew of CPI releases, which showed:
Lower than expected Canadian inflation at 2.9%.
Higher than expected UK inflation.
New Zealand inflation as expected at 3.2%.
Apart from these factors, it was a relatively quiet week, although we did see the froth come off the market with several assets retreating from recent highs.
There were only a few other important economic data releases last week:
US Retail Sales – higher than expected.
US Empire State Manufacturing Index – lower than expected.
UK Retail Sales – considerably worse than expected.
US Unemployment Claims – as expected.
Chinese Industrial Production – considerably worse than expected.
UK Claimant Count Change (Unemployment Claims) – lower than expected.
Australian Unemployment Rate – increased by less than expected to 3.8%.
The Week Ahead: 21st – 25th April
The most important items over the coming week will be the release of US Core PCE Price Index and Advance GDP data, as well as the Bank of Japan’s monthly policy meeting. Apart from these, there are a few other important releases due:
US, UK, German, French Flash Manufacturing & Services PMI
US Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment
Australia CPI
US Unemployment Claims
US Pending Home Sales
Monthly Forecast April 2024
Weekly Forecast 21st April 2024
Last week, I made no weekly forecast, as there were no strong counter-trend price movements in any currency crosses, which is the basis of my weekly trading strategy.
I again give no forecast this week.
Directional volatility in the Forex market was unchanged last week, with 26% of the most important currency pairs fluctuating by more than 1%.
Last week, relative strength was observed in the Euro, and relative weakness was observed in the Japanese Yen.
Key Support/Resistance Levels for Popular Pairs
Gold
Gold rose strongly last week, making its highest every weekly close, ending with a weekly candlestick that looks like a bullish inside bar. The high price of last week was not far from the record high made during the week before. The weekly close was not very far from the high, either. These are all bullish signs.
It is important to remember that Gold has historically been positively correlated with the stock market and other risky assets and does not tend to act as a hedge against them as is commonly supposed. Nevertheless, Gold held up well last week despite the uptick in the US Dollar and the strong selloff in stock markets, suggesting that Gold and other precious metals may be fulfilling such a hedging role right now.
I see Gold as a buy, but it might be safest to wait for a daily close above $2400 before entering a new long trade.
USD/JPY
The USD/JPY currency pair continued to rise firmly for another week following its recent strong bullish breakout beyond the former key resistance level at ¥152, which had been seen as a price that the Bank of Japan would defend.
The price closed at a new 34-year high and closed very close to the high of the week’s range. These are both very bullish signs.
The Japanese Yen is weak, as the Bank of Japan and the Japanese financial establishment do not seem to be very serious about halting the Yen’s slide. On the other side of this pair, the US Dollar is the strongest major currency, as the risk-off environment sends a money flow into the greenback, supported by the growing feeling that US interest rates will have to remain higher for longer.
I see the USD/JPY currency pair as a buy, but we may see profit taking or general resistance at ¥155 which is not far from the closing price.
Cocoa Futures
Cocoa Futures made yet another bullish move last week and rose to reach a new multiyear high. The price ended the week extremely close to the high of its weekly price range. These are very bullish signs.
You can apply a linear regression analysis to the start of the increased bullish momentum 16 weeks ago. Since then, the price of Cocoa futures has almost tripled! Cocoa is now considerably more expensive pound for pound than Copper.
This amazing trend will eventually end, but there is no point in calling a top. However, using a trailing stop in this kind of trade is extremely important. The stop should be based upon volatility, which has become extremely high. Weekly price movements of about 10% are now quite normal here, so position sizing should be small, especially on new trades as the price is overbought on any technical indication – the price chart below shows that the close is very near the top of the standard deviation channel which has contained the price over recent weeks.
I see Cocoa as a buy but only with a half-sized position.
Bottom Line
I see the best trading opportunities this week as follows:
Long of Gold.
Long of Silver.
Long of the USD/JPY currency pair.
Long of Cocoa Futures, but with only half a normal position size.
To get ACCURATE LIVE ACCURATE 2-3 TRADES (Forex/Comex/Stocks) Telegram Financial Advisor
USDJPY has been gradually inching higher after dropping near the floor of the sideway range at the end of March to briefly touch 151.01. Prices made it all the way to 151.94 on Wednesday before easing again.
However, with both the 20- and 50-day simple moving averages (SMA) lurking below the price action, there is still a possibility of a fresh attempt to break above the 152.00 ceiling in the near term. Looking at the momentum indicators, the stochastic oscillator is sending positive signals in the four-hour chart, as the %K line has crossed above the %D line. The RSI is somewhat more neutral as it remains flat, but it managed to hold above the 50 level after the latest dip.
Should the positive momentum gather more traction, the bulls will likely again target the 152.00 handle. A successful break above it would bring the 123.6% Fibonacci extension of the early February-March downleg at 152.55 into view. Further gains would turn attention to the 161.8% Fibonacci of 153.60.
However, if the bears manage to defend the 152.00 level in the coming days, a sharp pullback would become inevitable. The 151.00 floor would become the first major test in the negative scenario, with the 100-day SMA offering further support at 150.70, after which the 200-day SMA would come into scope at 150.10. A drop below the psychologically important level of 150.00 would shift the short-term risk to the downside.
In brief, USDJPY still stands a chance of hitting fresh 34-year highs. But the longer it lingers within its current sideways range without breaching the upper bound, the more likely that it will reverse lower at some point.
To get ACCURATE LIVE ACCURATE 2-3 TRADES (Forex/Comex/Stocks) Telegram Financial Advisor
USD/JPY climbed higher above the 150.50 and 151.20 resistance levels.
A major bullish trend line is forming with support at 150.60 on the 4-hour chart.
EUR/USD could gain bearish momentum below 1.0820.
Crude oil prices are accelerating above the $82.50 resistance zone.
USD/JPY Technical Analysis
The US Dollar climbed further higher above the 149.20 resistance zone against the Japanese Yen. USD/JPY broke the 150.00 resistance to set the pace for more upsides.
Looking at the 4-hour chart, the pair even settled above the 150.50 level, the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour), and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour). Finally, the pair broke the 151.80 level.
A high was formed at 151.97 and the pair is now consolidating gains. On the upside, the pair could face resistance near the 151.50 level. The first major resistance is now forming near 151.80. The main resistance is now forming near 152.00.
A close above the 152.00 zone could open the doors for more upsides. The next stop for the bulls might be 153.20. If not, the pair might continue to decline. Immediate support is near the 151.00 level.
The next major support is at 150.50. There is also a major bullish trend line forming with support at 150.60 on the same chart. If there is a downside break below the 150.50 support, the pair could decline toward the 150.00 support. Any more losses might send the pair toward the 148.40 level in the near term.
Looking at Oil, the bulls are active above the $82.50 resistance level and they might soon aim for more upsides toward the $85 level.
Economic Releases
US Personal Income for Feb 2024
To get ACCURATE LIVE ACCURATE 2-3 TRADES (Forex/Comex/Stocks) Telegram Financial Advisor
The Japanese yen has edged higher on Wednesday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 151.17, down 0.26%.
Yen falls to 34-year low, will Tokyo intervene?
The Bank of Japan raised interest rates last week for the first time since 2007. The move marked a sea-change in monetary policy. However, the tightening has not translated into gains for the Japanese yen, which remains under pressure. Earlier today, the yen fell as low as 151.97, its lowest level since 1990.
Will the yen’s slide trigger a currency intervention from Japan’s Ministry of Finance? The MOF intervened last October when the yen dropped to 151.94, which means we are clearly within “intervention territory”. The MOF’s response to the current decline, however, has been limited to verbal intervention.
On Monday, as the top currency diplomat, Masato Kanda, sent a warning to speculators that he was concerned by the yen’s slide, saying it did not reflect fundamentals. Earlier today, Japan’s finance minister, Shunichi Suzuki, warned that excessive movement by the yen would be answered with “decisive steps”.
Japanese officials have limited their response to the yen’s woes with jawboning but the risk of intervention is very real and will increase if the yen continues to lose ground. Still, it should be noted that last year’s interventions didn’t really get the job done, as yen gains were short-lived.
The lack of certainty as to whether Tokyo will intervene to prop up the yen could result in volatility for USD/JPY and investors will be listening carefully to every comment coming out of the BoJ or the MOF.
USD/JPY Technical
USD/JPY remains range-bound on the weekly chart:
152.58 and 153.70 are the next resistance lines
There is support at 150.74 and 149.62
To get ACCURATE LIVE ACCURATE 2-3 TRADES (Forex/Comex/Stocks) Telegram Financial Advisor
S&P 500 rebounds towards 5000; USD/JPY rises past ¥147.33; WTI eyes $75 resistance; AUD/USD tests 0.65; USD/CHF nears 0.87; Bitcoin at $40,000; Gold at $2000; Nikkei strong.
SP 500
The S&P 500 initially pulled back during the course of the trading week to reach down toward the 4700 level. The 4700 level is an area that has been important multiple times. All things being equal, the market has turned around to show signs of life, and it does look like we will eventually break out. Short-term pullbacks are buying opportunities, and I think that given enough time that we could go looking toward the 4900 level, followed by the 5000 level.
USDJPY
The US dollar has rallied rather significantly during the course of the trading week to break above the ¥147.33 level, and therefore it’s likely that we will continue to see a lot of upward pressure. All things being equal, if we do see a short-term pullback, there will be plenty of people willing to jump into the market and take advantage of value. The size of the candlestick does suggest that we are going to continue to see buyers, but I would also look for some type of value to take advantage of.
AUD/USD
The Australian dollar has fallen significantly during the course of the trading week to test the 0.65 level. The 0.65 level is an area that previously has been support and resistance both. Because of this, I think this is a market that looks as if we are eventually going to turn around and show signs of life. The 0.67 level above will be the target, which was a major area of interest previously. If we can break above there, then the market is likely to look into the 0.69 level above, which is also an area where the 200-Week EMA is going to show up.
USD/CHF
The US dollar has exploded to the upside against the Swiss franc as we are closing out the week near the 0.87 level. The 0.87 level is an area where the market is going to continue to see a lot of trouble, but if we can break above there the next target would be the 0.88 level. If we were to break above there, then the US dollar could go looking to the 0.90 level above. On the other hand, if we do see some signs of exhaustion, this could be the top of the recovery. I think the next candlestick is going to be crucial for this pair.
BTC/USD
Bitcoin initially tried to rally during the course of the week, only to turn around and show signs of weakness. The market is sitting on top of the $40,000 level, which of course is a large, round, psychologically significant figure. If we break down below there, then the market could go down to the $38,000 level. All things being equal, I do believe the Bitcoin is going to continue to see a lot of bullish pressure, but it’s probably going to be a situation where value is something that traders will continue to look toward, but now that we have had the Bitcoin ETF announced, we are looking for the next catalyst to make this market go higher.
To get ACCURATE LIVE ACCURATE 2-3 TRADES (Forex/Comex/Stocks) Telegram Financial Advisor
USD/JPY is correcting gains from the 148.80 resistance zone.
A key bullish flag is forming with resistance near 147.80 on the 4-hour chart.
EUR/USD is gaining bearish momentum below the 1.0820 support.
Gold prices could attempt a steady increase above the $2,050 resistance.
USD/JPY Technical Analysis
The US Dollar rallied above the 146.20 and 147.50 levels against the Japanese Yen. USD/JPY tested the 148.80 resistance and recently started a downside correction.
Looking at the 4-hour chart, the pair traded below the 148.20 and 148.00 levels. The bears were able to push the pair below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 143.42 swing low to the 148.80 high.
There was a spike below the 100 simple moving average (red, 4 hours). The pair tested the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 143.42 swing low to the 148.80 high.
It seems like there is a key bullish flag forming with resistance near 147.80 on the same chart. The first major support sits near the 146.10 level. The next major support sits at the 200 simple moving average (green, 4 hours) at 145.00, below which the pair might gain bearish momentum.
On the upside, the bulls are facing hurdles near the 147.20 level. The next key resistance is near the 147.80 level. A close above the 147.80 zone could open the doors for more upsides. The next stop for the bulls might be 148.80. Any more gains might send USD/JPY toward the 150.00 level.
Looking at Gold, the bulls are still active, and it seems like they might aim for a steady increase above the $2,050 resistance if the US NFP figure misses the market forecast.
Economic Releases
US nonfarm payrolls for Jan 2023
US Unemployment Rate for Jan 2023
To get ACCURATE LIVE ACCURATE 2-3 TRADES (Forex/Comex/Stocks) Telegram Financial Advisor
USD/JPY is consolidating above the 145.50 support.
A key bullish trend line is forming with support near 145.50 on the 4-hour chart.
EUR/USD struggled to clear the 1.0940 and trimmed gains.
The US nonfarm payrolls could increase by 170K in August 2023.
USD/JPY Technical Analysis
The US Dollar started a short-term downside correction from the 147.40 zone against the Japanese Yen. USD/JPY declined below the 147.00 and 146.50 levels.
Looking at the 4-hour chart, the pair is still trading well above the 145.00 support, the 100 simple moving average (red, 4 hours), and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4 hours).
It is now consolidating and might attempt a fresh increase. On the upside, an initial resistance is near the 146.35 level. The first major resistance is near the 146.50 level.
A close above 146.50 could start a decent increase. In the stated case, the pair could rise toward the 147.40 level. Any more gains could send the pair toward the 148.00 level.
If not, the pair might start a fresh decline below the 145.65 support. The next key support is seen near the 145.50 level. There is also a key bullish trend line forming with support near 145.50 on the same chart.
If there is a move below 145.50, the pair could dive toward 145.20. Any more losses might send the pair toward the 144.50 level.
Looking at EUR/USD, the pair struggled to recover above the 1.0940 zone, faced rejection, and started a fresh decline.
Economic Releases
Germany’s Manufacturing PMI for August 2023 Euro Zone Manufacturing PMI for August 2023
UK Manufacturing PMI for August 2023
US ISM Manufacturing PMI for August 2023
US nonfarm payrolls for August 2023
US Unemployment Rate for August 2023
To get ACCURATE LIVE ACCURATE 2-3 TRADES (Forex/Comex/Stocks) Telegram Financial Advisor
Rehana William |Financial Consultant _Forex_Gold Xauusd| Fund Manager 