Silver is outperforming Gold, so traders should be more confident of being long of Silver than of Gold.
The best new trade opportunities which might set up today will be a long trade in Silver above the $28.80 area or in Gold from support at either $2355 or $2336.
Stock markets are mostly bullish, which is probably good news for further rises in Gold and Silver.
Gold (XAU/USD): Technical Analysis
The price chart below Gold is well established within a long-term bullish trend. Bulls still need caution as the price is not trading in blue sky and may still hit resistance. However, we have continued to see bullish price action over recent days, and the price is approaching and not far from the recent significant swing high at $2378.
A few hours ago, the price seems to have based off the support level at $2355.06. The price looks quite likely to rise higher and it could well reach or exceed $2378 today.
There will be a release of highly important US CPI data later today which will likely cause market volatility. If the CPI number is weak for the US Dollar, we can expect Gold to rise higher, and vice versa.
Key Support Levels:
$2355
$2336
Key Resistance Levels:
$2400
$2431
Silver (XAG/USD): Technical Analysis
The price chart below shows that Silver is well established within a long-term bullish trend. Recent hours have seen the price continue to rise bullishly and get very close to the recent swing high. It is notable that the price action here in Silver looks more bullish than what is happening in Gold, suggesting that a long trade today in Gold may work out better than one in Silver.
A problem for bulls is that we are starting to see signs that the bullish momentum is fading over the short term, as the price gets nearer to the $28.80 area.
A long trade here in Silver could be a great idea if we get a breakout beyond $28.80 with strong short-term momentum. This will probably not happen until after the US CPI data release.
Traders who prefer to buy at bounces on support after dips will likely struggle here because the nearest support level is quite a way lower, at $28.02.
Key Support Levels:
$28.02
$27.73
$27.47
$27.00
Key Resistance Levels:
$29.00
$29.80
$30.00
To get LIVE ACCURATE 2-3 TRADES daily (Forex/Comex/Stocks) Telegram Financial Advisor
The annual wholesale price inflation in Saudi Arabia edged down to 3.4% in April 2024 from 3.8% in the previous month.
Prices slowed for other transportable goods except metal products, machinery & equipment (8.1% vs 9.2% in March), while remained unchanged for food products, beverages, and tobacco & textiles (2.4% vs 2.4%) and agriculture & fishery products (0.2% vs 0.2%).
Additionally, costs dropped for metal products, machinery & equipment (-0.6% vs -0.7%) and ores & minerals (-2.2% vs -2.2%). On a monthly basis, wholesale prices decreased by 0.4% in April, after a 0.4% rise in March.
Saudi Arabia Wholesale Inflation Advances in March
The annual wholesale price inflation in Saudi Arabia advanced 3.8% in March 2024, up from 3.1% rise in the previous month, driven by a faster increase in the prices of other transportable goods except metal products, machinery & equipment (9.2% vs 7.5% in February).
At the same time, costs continued to rise for food products, beverages, and tobacco & textiles (2.4% vs 2%). In contrast, prices slowed for agriculture & fishery products (0.2% vs 0.6%), while declined further for ores & minerals (-2.2% vs -2%) and metal products, machinery & equipment (-0.7% vs -0.6%). On a monthly basis, wholesale prices rose 0.4% in March, rebounding from a 1.2% fall in the prior month
To get LIVE ACCURATE 2-3 TRADES daily (Forex/Comex/Stocks) Telegram Financial Advisor
Gold prices have declined to around $2,332 an ounce as of the start of trading this week.
This is as investor focus shifts to key US inflation reports due out this week to seek further clues about the Federal Reserve’s monetary direction amid mixed signals from Fed officials.
The US Producer Price Index is scheduled for release today, Tuesday, followed by the Consumer Price Index tomorrow, Wednesday.
After the weaker-than-expected US jobs report for April and the disappointing job report last week, expectations for US rate cuts this year have increased.
Markets expect the Fed to start easing monetary policy in September.
In recent months, gold prices have risen, driven by strong investment demand in the over-the-counter market, continued buying by global central banks, and increased demand from Asia. Escalating tensions in the Middle East also continue to support the safe-haven appeal of gold. In the latest development, Israel deployed tanks into eastern Jabalia in northern Gaza on Sunday after a night of heavy airstrikes and ground fire.
On the front of factors influencing the gold market, the 10-year US Treasury yield started the week’s trading below 4.5% as traders eagerly await the release of key economic data. The focus will be on CPI and PPI data, as well as retail sales and industrial production figures, to gauge inflation and economic strength. In the meantime, investors will be paying close attention to comments from various Fed officials for clues about when the Fed may start cutting rates, particularly Fed Chairman Powell’s appearance at the annual general meeting of the Association of Foreign Banks in Amsterdam today, Tuesday.
Overall, comments made by several policymakers last week indicated that rates would remain high for some time. Furthermore, the odds for Fed easing in September are currently 61% and 74% for November.
Another factor affecting the gold market is that the US dollar index fell to 105 on Monday as investors await key US inflation data this week which could impact Fed monetary policy expectations. Last week, the index ended with modest gains as Fed officials urged caution before cutting rates. In this regard, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said she did not expect it would be appropriate to cut rates in 2024, while Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said it was still too early to think about cutting rates.
Meanwhile, data on Friday pointed to a jump in consumer inflation expectations, although a sharp decline in US consumer confidence added to evidence that the economy is losing momentum. Also, markets are still pricing in September as the start of the easing cycle. Concurrently, investors are now looking to April inflation data to further guide interest rate expectations.
Gold Price Forecast and Analysis Today:
The decline in gold prices is natural, and the overall trend remains upward. The retracement may provide opportunities to buy again, and currently, the nearest support levels for gold are $2318 and $2285 per ounce, respectively. Conversely, on the same time frame, the daily chart below indicates that returning to the resistance area at $2375 is crucial for bullish movement towards the psychological resistance at $2400 per ounce once more. Evidently, gold prices may continue to move within narrow ranges until reacting to US inflation figures and statements from Federal Reserve policymakers led by Jerome Powell.
To get LIVE ACCURATE 2-3 TRADES daily (Forex/Comex/Stocks) Telegram Financial Advisor
Last week’s key takeaway was the souring of risk-on sentiment due to expectations in the USA of higher inflationary pressure over the short-term as well as US Consumer Sentiment data which came in at a six-month low. This souring did not come until the end of the week, and it is unclear how negative it is, as most assets over the entire week showed a risk-on rally.
It is unclear what sentiment will be like as the new week gets underway. It is likely that markets will be so fixated on the upcoming US CPI data release that nothing much will happen in the market before that.
The two major data releases last week were policy meetings at two central banks: the Bank of England and the Reserve Bank of Australia. Both central banks kept their interest rates unchanged, but the Bank of England vote was a little more dovish than expected. The RBA stated that inflation risk remains to the upside but that on balance they considered another rate holding to be the correct action. However, both banks effectively indicated a rate hike was out of the question.
Other important data releases were:
US 30-Year Bond Auction – this produced a slightly lower yield, which should be slightly bullish for risk.
UK GDP – this came in notably better than expected, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4% instead of the expected 0.1% increase.
US Unemployment Claims – this was slightly worse than expected.
Canadian Unemployment Rate – this was better than expected, with the unemployment rate remaining unchanged at 6.1% due t the creation of more net new jobs than was expected.
The Week Ahead: 13th – 17th May
The most important item over this coming week will be the release of US CPI (inflation) data on Wednesday. Apart from that, there are several other important releases scheduled, listed in order of likely importance:
US PPI
US Retail Sales
US Empire State Manufacturing Index
US Unemployment Claims
Australia Wage Price Index
New Zealand Inflation Expectations
UK Claimant Count Change
Australia Unemployment Rate
Monthly Forecast May 2024
Weekly Forecast 12th May 2024
Last week, I forecasted that the Japanese Yen would decline against the Euro, Pound, New Zealand Dollar, Swiss Franc, Canadian Dollar, and Australian Dollar. All of these were excellent winning trades, giving a large overall gain of 10.45%, as outlined earlier.
Directional volatility in the Forex market decreased last week, with 27% of the most important currency pairs fluctuating by more than 1% last week.
Last week, the Australian Dollar showed relative strength, and the Japanese Yen showed relative weakness.
Key Support/Resistance Levels for Popular Pairs
Technical Analysis
US Dollar Index
The US Dollar Index printed a small inside candlestick last week which closed slightly higher with a relatively large upper wick, signifying indecision. The candlestick is close to being a bearish pin bar. There is no true long-term trend here, as the price is above its level from 3 months ago but remains below its price of 6 months ago, making the US Dollar relatively unreliable to trade on a trend basis.
The weekly price chart below shows that the dollar has been swinging but has been in a consolidation pattern for quite a while, and the consolidation seems to be getting stronger and constricting.
However, it is worth noting that there is a confluence of a bearish descending trend line and a key horizontal resistance level at 105.81 which is not far from the current price. If the Us Dollar can get established above that level, it could be a significant bullish breakout. It could happen this week if the release of US CPI (inflation) data is notably higher than expected.
USD/JPY
The USD/JPY currency pair was active this week, as were all the Yen crosses. This is due to volatility remaining within the Japanese Yen after its recent massive price movements, with the volatility goosed by two suspected interventions from the Bank of Japan.
The Yen is weakening everywhere, and so of course it also weakened against the US Dollar. However, several other currencies gained even more against the Yen last week.
Technically we see the bullish momentum starting to evaporate into a consolidation below ¥156.00.
Yen weakness is quite likely to persist over the coming week. Whether this is the best pair to use to be short of the Yen is debatable. However, if the Yen does stay weak, long trades from bounces at support levels in this currency pair are likely to be good trades.
Gold
The price of Gold rose quite firmly last week, printing a bullish engulfing candlestick of good size, although Friday saw Gold give up some of its gains through a short-term topping out. The weekly price chart below shows some upper wick on the weekly candlestick. However, the price closed notably higher, and is not very far from making a record high weekly close, which was last made 4 weeks ago at $2392.
We do not yet have bullish breakout conditions, but long trades do look more likely to succeed than short ones, and there is certainly a long-term bullish trend here.
I think we could see a good point to enter a new long trade if we get either:
A daily close above $2400, or
A retracement to any of the support levels above $2290.
Silver
The price of Silver rose quite firmly last week, printing a bullish engulfing candlestick of good size, although Friday saw Silver give up some of its gains. The weekly price chart below shows some upper wick on the weekly candlestick. However, the price closed notably higher, and is not very far from making a record multi-year high weekly close, which was last made 4 weeks ago at $28.69.
We do not yet have bullish breakout conditions, but long trades do look more likely to succeed than short ones, and there is certainly a long-term bullish trend here.
I think we could see a good point to enter a new long trade if we get either:
A daily close above $29, or
A retracement to either of the support levels at $27.72 or $27.46, with $27.46 looking especially strong due to its confluence with $27.50.
S&P 500 Index
After major US equity indices dropped quite sharply 4 weeks ago after making new all-time highs, US stock markets have been rising slowly but surely, and last week saw quite good performances, especially here in the broad, benchmark S&P 500 Index. It is worth noting that this Index outperformed the NASDAQ 100 Index, which is unusual in a bear market and suggests that the tech sector currently has some vulnerability.
The weekly price chart below shows a bullish candlestick that closed quite near its high. There was some upper wick, but nothing unduly large for bulls to worry about.
There is clearly a long-term bullish trend coupled with mostly bullish short-term momentum. The issue for bulls here is likely to be that the price is near the recent record highs which could provide resistance and trigger another bearish reversal if reached.
For this reason, I will only consider entering a new long trade here if we see a new record high daily close. I prefer a daily close above 5265 which would be a new record high.
We have seen renewed risk-on sentiment in recent days, which is benefiting stocks and precious metals. Gold and silver are positively correlated with stock market performances historically.
USDMXN :
The US dollar gap lower against the Mexican peso the kickoff the trading week, only to turn around and show signs of strength and fill that gap, only to turn right back around and start selling off. Ultimately, this is a market that I think is doing everything he can to break down below the 16 pesos level, but we have a long way to go. In general, this will be an interesting pair to watch due to the fact that it is an emerging market currency that is extraordinarily important. I think this still remains a market that you are looking to fade rallies in.
CAC
The French index was very positive this week, although it’s worth noting that Friday was little bit of a letdown. The market has struggled at the previous high, but this simply means that we will probably pull back only to find more buyers. Underneath, we have the €7900 level that is likely to offer quite a bit of support. Even if we were to break down below there, I think there’s even more support near the €7600 level as the 50-Week EMA comes into the picture.
Bottom Line
I see the best trading opportunities this week as follows:
Long of the S&P 500 Index following a daily close above 5265.
Long of Gold following a daily close above $2400.
Long of Silver following a daily close above $29.00.
To get LIVE ACCURATE 2-3 TRADES daily (Forex/Comex/Stocks) Telegram Financial Advisor
The price of WTI Crude Oil closed the week of trading slightly below its starting point last Monday, and trading in the commodity remains under speculative pressure.
WTI Crude Oil finished the week of trading slight below its starting point last week.
If a speculator wasn’t participating they might simply look at the price of the commodity as having performed a very comfortable value line, but that isn’t the story.
The price of WTI Crude Oil began last week with normal choppy values but fell to a low of nearly 76.680 on early Wednesday.
Then the price of the commodity started to climb and by Thursday was flirting with a high around 79.420.
The price of WTI Crude Oil remained within the upper levels of its short-term range going into Friday, which then created a high around the 79.520 mark. However, after hitting the apex which retouched marks from the 2nd of May, WTI Crude Oil began to selloff going into the weekend. The strong selling as Friday concluded showed that large players were feeling comfortable with fundamentals which show adequate supply and a lack of hyperbole from the Middle East.
Back to Square One as WTI Crude Oil Opens this Week
Essentially WTI Crude Oil appears set to open Monday’s trading within vicinities it began last week’s trading. From a technical perspective the ability to turn lower as the weekend approached is significant and if the commodity opens tomorrow with a tranquil price range, this might indicate lower realms could still be demonstrated. Last week’s lows touched values last seen on the 11th of March. The 76.000 level appears to be important support for WTI Crude Oil.
If WTI Crude Oil continues to sell and falls below the 77.000 mark, traders will have their eyes on last week’s low. If the 76.600 support level is able to be penetrated lower it will open the door to technical consideration via prices that were seen from December into February. Lower prices may seem like wishful thinking for the public and speculators, but if supply and demand remain consistent with the levels being demonstrated currently a bit more selling to slightly lower depths is not out of the question.
WTI Crude Oil and Fair Market Value and Global Economic Intrigue
Global economies do seem to be improving slightly via economic data from Europe and China but very slowly, this as they seem to show signs of potentially stumbling out of recessionary pressures. But the U.S economy appears to actually be growing weaker and if this decline continues it will open the door to less demand for WTI Crude Oil.
Support near the 77.000 level should be watched early this week; if it is penetrated another push towards lows seen last week will likely become the target.
Having produced a selloff going into last weekend is intriguing, WTI Crude Oil should be watched early this week to see if momentum continues, but if there is a reversal higher on early Monday this may indicate some large players believe the commodity is slightly oversold.
WTI Crude Oil Weekly Outlook:
Speculative price range for WTI Crude Oil is 75.10 to 80.20
The trajectory of WTI Crude Oil has been lower since tracing above the 87.000 price in first and second week of April. The inability last week to seriously challenge the 80.000 value is another sign that technically traders may be comfortable with the current price range. Last week’s push higher from Wednesday into early Friday are a reminder that WTI Crude Oil can move higher and day traders wagering on the commodity need to be careful.
If political saber rattling from the Middle East can remain within calm decimal levels and not scare large traders of WTI Crude Oil, it is likely the commodity will remain within a rather polite price range. The 76.000 to 79.000 levels seem like a potential playing ground in the coming days. If the commodity is able to open with selling following last week’s soft close, there is a reason to suspect some additional selling may demonstrated. The technical range of WTI Crude Oil appears to be rather firm going into this week.
To get LIVE ACCURATE 2-3 TRADES daily (Forex/Comex/Stocks) Telegram Financial Advisor
Silver is outperforming Gold, so traders should be more confident of being long of Silver than of Gold.
The best new trade opportunity which might set up today will be a long trade in Silver from the $27.50 area.
Stock markets are mostly holding up, which is probably good news for further rises in Gold and Silver.
Gold (XAU/USD): Technical Analysis
Gold is still established within a long-term bullish trend despite retreating from its record high made just a few weeks ago. Bulls still need caution as the price is not trading in blue sky and is prone to hitting resistance and swinging lower. In fact, it is fair to say that we are seeing a consolidation within an increasingly narrow range, with both nearest support and resistance levels looking likely to produce rejections when tested, giving potential short-term trading opportunities.
A few hours ago, the price made what seems to be a significant bearish reversal at the resistance level at $2321. The price looks quite likely to fall further to $2305 where a long trade could be possible. If any rejection also rejects that round number at $2300 it will likely be even stronger.
Any long trade could easily run out of momentum near $2321 so be conservative with taking profits from any long trade – monitor it carefully.
Key Support Levels:
$2305
$2290
Key Resistance Levels:
$2321
$2329
Silver (XAG/USD): Technical Analysis
The price chart below shows that Silver is still established within a long-term bullish trend despite retreating from its multi-year high made just a few weeks ago. Recent hours have seen a significant bullish development: a bullish breakout above the resistance level confluent with the major quarter-number at $27.50.
A few hours ago, the price made a bearish reversal at the resistance level at $27.73. However, this does not look technical significant, and I would not be surprised if the price rises again to get established above that level.
A long trade here in Silver could be a great idea if we get a bullish bounce anywhere between $27.50 and $27.46, as this area was formerly well-established resistance so is likely now to act as strong support.
I see Silver as a better potential buy opportunity than Gold right now, but more conservative traders might prefer to wait for a bullish breakout above $27.75 instead of buying on the dip after a bounce near $27.50 or even lower.
Key Support Levels:
$27.50/46
$27.00
$26.84
$26.62
Key Resistance Levels:
$27.73
$28.05
To get LIVE ACCURATE 2-3 TRADES daily (Forex/Comex/Stocks) Telegram Financial Advisor
Rehana William |Financial Consultant _Forex_Gold Xauusd| Fund Manager 