USDSGD Forecast: Noisy Behavior Ahead (21 June 2024)

• The US dollar has rallied rather significantly against the Singapore dollar during the trading session on Thursday, as we have used the 50-Day EMA as a bit of a springboard.
• At this point in time, we need to pay close attention to the resistance level above though, as the 1.3550 level has been a bit difficult to overcome.
• However, you should also keep in mind that the US dollar has been strong against almost everything during the session, so it does make a certain amount of sense that the Singapore dollar would continue to struggle against it.
• Because of this, the market is likely to continue to see a lot of noisy behavior.

Safety Versus Safety

These are both safety currencies, so you need to pay close attention to risk appetite but at the end of the day, the world prefers US dollars over Singapore dollar is when it comes to trying to find safety. Furthermore, the Swiss National Bank cut rates during the early hours of the session, and therefore it has created a little bit of a “knock on effect” in the US dollar as traders continue to focus on the fact that the Federal Reserve is likely to stay tight for the time being. This makes the US dollar much more attractive because it offers more yield than most other currencies, and the massive interest rate differential between the United States and Singapore continues to have people looking to the greenback to get paid.

All things being equal, we are still very much in the consolidation area see you do need to be cautious about the idea of trying to get too aggressive, but ultimately, I think you have to recognize the fact that eventually we will break out of the very clearly defined 100 point range, and once we do it opens up the possibility of a bigger move. The question now is whether or not the United States dollar is going to continue to see a lot of inflows, or if fear subsides?

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USDSGD Forecast: #USDollar Plunges Against the #Singapore #Dollar (13 JUNE 2024)

• The US dollar has fallen over 6/10 of a percent against the Singapore dollar, which is a significant move considering that the pair does not tend to be overly volatile.
• This is primarily a reaction to the Consumer Price Index numbers in the United States coming out cooler than anticipated.
• This has people already hoping that the Federal Reserve might cut interest rates sooner rather than later, but it’s also worth noting that the FOMC meeting is late in the day and could change the overall attitude.

Are We Are Range Bound?

I think at this point in time we have to answer the question as to whether or not we are simply going to be range bound. This is not a huge surprise, because the USD/SGD pair tends to be very sideways in general, because it’s not necessarily the most volatile pairs, and it’s worth noting that the Singapore dollar is essentially the same thing as trading the Swiss franc, as a lot of the fundamentals are very similar. Singapore is considered to be the “Switzerland of Asia”, when it comes to currency trading.

At this point, if we were to break down below the 1.34 level, that could be very negative for the US dollar, perhaps sending this pair down to the 1.33 level. On the other hand, if we turn around and rally from here, the 1.3540 level could be the ceiling, as we would go back and forth. Keep in mind this is a pair that tends to move at the speed of cattle, so you need to be very patient with whatever long or short position you do end up putting on.

Keep in mind that the interest rate in Singapore is just 3.51%, as far as the overnight rate average is concerned, so therefore the interest rate differential certainly favors the US dollar. In other words, the FOMC is a being hawkish, we may turn right back around in this pair as it doesn’t pay you to go short as far as the swap will be concerned.

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USDSGD Analysis: Surge Higher and Cautious Trading Attitudes Simmer: 11 JUNE 2024

The USD/SGD has surged higher and kept its values in a sustained range after the U.S jobs numbers last Friday sparked buying momentum.

• The USD/SGD is trading near the 1.35320 ratio as of this writing with typical fast trading taking place.
• The USD/SGD was trading around the 1.34395 ratio and testing the week’s low last Friday, but then the U.S jobs numbers came in higher than expected regarding the headline report with better job creation.
• The USD/SGD followed the broad Forex market and witnessed a strong buying surge as cautious sentiment ripped through the air.

Trading yesterday and today has remained cautious and there have been little to no signs of a strong reversals lower in the USD/SGD. Financial institutions are clearly playing it safe until tomorrow’s U.S Consumer Price Index numbers and Federal Reserve FOMC meeting announcements. The inflation report tomorrow is certain to cause a bit of a storm early, but the Fed’s policy rhetoric later in the day will stir the Forex market including the USD/SGD.

Swift Reaction on Friday and Change of Sentiment in the USD/SGD

The USD/SGD went from being within sight of its one month lows on Friday to a rapid climb higher as behavioral sentiment shifted quickly. Financial houses have clearly been betting on a more dovish sounding Federal Reserve, and once again they were delivered a fresh reminder why the USD/SGD and all other currencies teamed against the USD this year have suffered choppy trading. U.S data remains complex and the results are not allowing for a clear outlook.

While USD/SGD traders may believe the currency pair has been overbought, financial institutions in the short-term may want solid data and dovish monetary policy statements from the U.S tomorrow before they try to sell. The 1.35000 level has once again become a strong indication of sentiment and for the moment the USD/SGD remains comfortably above this ratio as it actually trades within the higher part of its one month price range.

Risk Management and Coming Reactions in the USD/SGD

Although traders will certainly react to tomorrow’s inflation numbers from the U.S, if the data comes in around what is expected all attention will turn to the Fed. But if the CPI numbers do come in weaker it could spark selling of the USD/SGDP, yet traders need to be reminded inflation data from the States has proven problematic all year and reactions to the numbers have caused Forex choppiness for the USD/SGD.

• The Fed will not lower its Federal Funds Rate tomorrow, but if it sounds more dovish about the mid and long-term this could soothe nervous traders and help the USD/SGD lower.
• Support and resistance levels will widen before the CPI data and the FOMC rhetoric on Wednesday.

Singapore Dollar Short Term Outlook:

Current Resistance: 1.35375

Current Support: 1.35240

High Target: 1.35490

Low Target: 1.35090

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USDSGD Forecast: Overall Consolidation (4 June 2024)

• The US dollar initially tried to rally a bit during the trading session on Monday, but as the session dragged on, we started to see the Singapore dollar strengthen.
• We are currently trading around a couple of major moving averages, but the real problem during the session, at least as far as I can tell, was the PMI numbers coming out much weaker than anticipated.
• At least in the ISM manufacturing PMI figures.

The S&P Global manufacturing PMI numbers came out better than anticipated, so it’s a mixed bag. With that being the case, it does make a certain amount of sense that we may continue the overall consolidation. It’s worth noting that we have sliced through the 200 day EMA, but it’s flat anyway, so I don’t know how much I read into it.

A Magnet for Price

The 1.35 area seems to be a bit of a magnet for price, and therefore I think could be your mean for the moment. Just have to wait and see. But right now, I think we’re just trying to sort out whether or not we rally from here or if we break back down. I suspect that if we can recapture the 1.3533 level, then the US dollar will continue to climb against the Singapore dollar, and you might see the US dollar strengthen.

Overall, keep in mind that USD/SGD is considered to be safety currency at one point or another, depending on what’s going on. I do think you’ve got a situation where traders will continue to look at this through the prism of perhaps being able to take advantage of value. But if we were to break down below the 1.3420 level, that could open up the market to fresh selling. In that environment, we probably see the US dollar struggle against almost everything, not just the Singapore dollar. In other words, this is a very US centric type of currency market at the moment as we try to sort out what’s going on with the US economy.

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USDSGD Analysis: Shift in Sentiment Demonstrated with Cautious Steps (21 May 2024)

After testing lows early yesterday the USD/SGD has climbed slightly higher, this as financial institutions seemingly take on more risk appetite but wait for more impetus.

• The USD/SGD is trading near the 1.34770 mark as of this writing which continues to display some bearish sentiment over the past few weeks.
• However, after touching a low around the 1.34410 ratio yesterday, the currency pair has climbed higher.
• While financial institutions have shifted towards a weaker U.S Federal Reserve outlook, the trend of the USD/SGD is not a one way street downwards.

This morning’s early reversals higher show that a range is still being fought over and the values of the USD/SGD are now entrenched technically in the middle of its three month price range. It is clear that plenty of speculative technical support remains around the 1.34500 to 1.34400 levels which may cause gyrations when challenged over the near-term.

Lack of Big U.S Data Early this Week for the USD/SGD

The U.S will not post much in the way of earth shattering economic data early this week. On Thursday there will be Purchasing Managers Index numbers via the Manufacturing and Services sectors, but it is likely the USD/SGD will continue to be influenced by existing sentiment which has taken on a more optimistic tone regarding inflation. Last week’s CPI numbers from the U.S caused a real selloff in the USD/SGD and the low around 1.34200 tested values last seen on the 21st of March.

The question for traders of the USD/SGD will be focused on existing sentiment. The notion that the USD/SGD has been banging up against support the past handful of days is interesting, but perhaps the more solid clue for technical traders is resistance. If the 1.34800 to 1.34900 levels prove durable this could provide traders with an opportunity to look for some downturns. Unless there is a surprising development today and tomorrow, risk of upwards momentum suddenly becoming strong looks diminished.

Aiming for Realistic Targets in the USD/SGD

While risk appetite has increased in the global markets and the USD has become weaker, yesterday’s low and reversal higher serves as a reminder that ranges remain dominant. Becoming overly ambitious regarding trends is dangerous for short-term day traders. The lows seen last Wednesday may prove to be a low water mark for the USD/SGD until there is more impetus delivered for Forex.

• And for the USD to grow weaker and extend its decline, inflation reports will have to show signs of more erosion.
• On Friday the U.S will see the University of Michigan Inflation Expectations report; this could provide some power for traders.
• But if the number is higher than expected, the USD/SGD could suddenly see some buying power emerge.
• Until later this week the USD/SGD is likely to remain within its known range.

Singapore Dollar Short Term Outlook:

Current Resistance: 1.34780

Current Support: 1.34675

High Target: 1.34920

Low Target: 1.34510

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USDSGD Analysis & Forex Signal: Near-Term Middle Ground Values Face Nervous Test (30 April 2024)

USD/SGD Analysis: Near-Term Middle Ground Values Face Nervous Test

The USD/SGD is within the middle of its one week technical price range as nervousness pervades financial institutions dealing with difficult circumstances.

• The USD/SGD is near the 1.36200 ratio as of this writing, which is technically within the middle of its trading ground attained the past week.
• However, early moves this morning have seen the USD/SGD track higher as nervous energy continues to confront the currency pair.
• Manufacturing numbers from China this morning came in mixed, which means still troubled

Singapore banks are large Forex traders and they handle plenty of Chinese Yuan (CNY). The USD/CNY has seen an incremental bullish climb start to develop that is consistent. The prospect of a weaker Chinese Yuan creates exposure for the Singapore Dollar which certainly affects sentiment within the USD/SGD fundamentally. But the USD/SGD was trading at a low of 1.35850 yesterday which tested support levels produced since Thursday of last week, which was a slight sign of Singapore Dollar strength.

USD/SGD Traders are a Barometer for Global Forex

Traders should know that Singapore Forex is watched by experienced speculators around the globe as a barometer regarding behavioral sentiment. The high reached early yesterday in the USD/SGD reached the 1.36310 briefly, this before reversing quickly lower and falling beneath the 1.36000 mark. The volatility and spurts of bearishness seen in the USD/SGD reflect a belief perhaps that the currency pair remains overbought.

However concerns not only about China’s economy and its effect on Singapore, but shadows from the U.S Federal Reserve’s approaching FOMC meeting tomorrow are causing mixed trading. While financial institutions have accepted the notion the U.S Fed will not cut interest rates tomorrow or in June, there remains a hope that the Federal Funds Rate will be cut towards the late summer. Yet, because of mixed U.S economic statistics there isn’t a clear outlook.

Move Higher This Morning in the USD/SGD is Dangerous

As the USD/SGD tests higher ratios early this morning, some speculators may target yesterday’s apex values, but this may prove overly ambitious. But the short-term price range in the USD/SGD is likely to be challenged today and tomorrow with fast trading results. Financial institutions in Asia are being confronted by cautious winds from their central banks, yesterday’s Bank of Japan intervention is an example.

• The USD/SGD may appear too strong to many speculators, but the fact is the currency pair remains within the upper depths of its one month technical range.
• Support levels have proven rather durable around the 1.35900 to 1.35850 ratios the past week.

Singapore Dollar Short Term Outlook:

Current Resistance: 1.36295

Current Support: 1.36180

High Target: 1.36375

Low Target: 1.35945

USD/SGD Forex Signal: Bullish Flag Forming in Singaporean Dollar

Potential signal:

I am a buyer of this pair above the 1.3650 level. If we can break that level on a daily close, I will have a stop loss at 1.3550, as well as a target of 1.38 above.

Buying On the Dips

I think buying on the dip is going to continue to be the way forward here, but if we were to break down below the 1.35 level, then I would have to think about this pair in other terms. While that hasn’t happened yet, I do think that it is a possibility but that would almost certainly be attached to the idea of the US dollar plunging against almost everything. While that does look very likely at the moment, I do consider this a pair that is worth being involved in, but like anything else, it’s going to be worried about geopolitical events globally.

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USDSGD Analysis: Range Ignites Speculative Volatility for Traders (23 April 2024)

The USD/SGD continues to trade within the upper boundaries of its long-term technical perspectives, but some traders may feel the ability to wager on technical resistance.

On Friday of last week the USD/SGD touched a high of nearly 1.36600 briefly. While the upside movement did create a high above the marks seen on Tuesday of last week, the price action of the currency pair on Friday took place in the wake of geopolitical concerns which shook global Forex momentarily. The USD/SGD did come down from the high water marks and went into the weekend near the 1.36160 vicinity.

Volatility has been a factor in global Forex the past week as the U.S has produced higher than expected inflation data and then had Jerome Powell essentially say the Fed was in an uncertain position regarding interest rates. Financial institutions which have clearly become more cautious have been buying the USD/SGD even as it has banged up against resistance and often proven the technical ratios are vulnerable.

Has the USD/SGD Traversed Too High?

Speculators may believe the USD/SGD has been overbought, but they need to be careful. The ability of the USD/SGD to incrementally climb in yesterday’s price action, and as of this writing trade near the 1.36285 mark is a reminder risk averse notions are still strong in financial institutions. This Thursday the U.S will release Gross Domestic Product numbers, but they will also publish the GDP Price Index. These numbers will impact Forex and the USD/SGD.

Until Thursday’s statistics from the U.S are released it is likely the USD/SGD will test its current trading range as financial institutions wait for the important data to clarify insights. However, the fact that inflation has proven stubborn is likely not going to disappear overnight. The U.S will also release important PCE inflation statistics on Friday. Meaning the last two days of this week will affect today and tomorrow – likely producing cautious movement in the USD/SGD.

Range Test in the USD/SGD for the Moment

The USD/SGD is still within the higher elements of its long-term price range as it fluctuates below highs seen in late September and during October of 2023. While traders may believe the USD/SGD will not touch those heights, they should remember the Federal Reserve has been bet against heavily the past couple of weeks and this has caused volatility and steady buying of the USD/SGD.

• The USD/SGD has been able to push lower, but in the short-term the 1.36150 to 1.36375 marks may continue to be tested on a constant basis until more clarity is delivered via U.S economic data.
• The volatility seen the past week of trading should serve as a reminder for all speculators to use solid risk taking tactics. The USD/SGD will get volatile again.

Singapore Dollar Short Term Outlook:

Current Resistance: 1.36310

Current Support: 1.36210

High Target: 1.36390

Low Target: 1.36125

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USDSGD Forecast: #US #Dollar Pulls Back Slightly Against Singapore Dollar (18 April 2024)

• The US dollar pulled back slightly during the trading session on Monday, as the 1.3650 level has offered a little bit in the way of resistance, but then turned around to show signs of exhaustion.
• Nonetheless, later in the day we have seen buyers come back into the picture to show signs of life, and this is rather impressive considering just how straight up in the air the US dollar has shot.

Keep in mind that the 50-Day EMA has broken above the 200-Day EMA, crossing over to form a “golden cross”, which of course is a bullish sign for a lot of longer-term traders that are willing to hang onto a currency pair. That being said, this is a market indicator that is quite often late to trade, but in the longer-term it does tend to pan out.

Underneath, the 1.35 level would be a significant support level that a lot of people will be paying close attention to, because not only is it an area where we had seen a lot of resistance, but we have also to keep in mind that there is a certain amount of psychological importance attached to it as well.

The US Dollar Eats Everything

The US dollar looks as if it is going to continue to strengthen against almost everything as long as we have seen interest rates rise, which is exactly what’s been happening. Jerome Powell said on Tuesday that it’s likely that we may have to wait to see rates being cut in the United States, and that of course has made the US dollar strengthen yet again. Furthermore, you have to pay close attention to the bond markets, and therefore what they are doing as far as buying and selling is concerned.

To the upside, if we can break above the 1.37 level, then it’s likely that we could go looking to the 1.40 level. The market has been very noisy, and therefore it’s likely that it will be a straight shot higher, despite the fact that it has been very bullish over the last week or so. Given enough time, I fully anticipate that we could go to the 1.40 SGD level, but it may take some time to get there is this pair is typically a slow mover.

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