Morning Market OUTLOOK for #STOCKS,#COMMODITIES AND #FOREX: 10 NOV 2021

On 10 Nov 2021 By Financial Consultant _Forex_Gold Xauusd| Fund ManagerIn Commodity, Forex, GOLD, Indices, INDICES, Natural Gas, Online Forex Education, SILVER (XAGUSD), WTI, WTI CRUDE OIL, XauusdLeave a comment

STOCKS

Dow needs to sustain above 36250/000 to keep the uptrend intact while Dax also needs to hold above 16000 to keep the bullish momentum intact for the near to medium term. Nikkei and shanghai have fallen and unless both sustain above 29500 and 3450, view is bearish for the near term. Nifty and Sensex have bullish scope intact while above 18000 and 60000 respectively.

Dow (36319.98, -112.24, -0.31%) has come down after testing the high of 36565.73 yesterday. A fall below 36250/000 is needed for our view to turn bearish. While above 36000/250, we may expect a test of 36500 and 37000 eventually.

DAX (16040.47, -6.05, -0.038%) has dipped slightly today but while above 16000, view remains bullish to see a test of crucial resistance at 16400.

Nikkei (29200.04, -84.63, -0.29%) has broken below the support at 29500. While below 29500 a fall towards 28000 is possible in the coming sessions before we see a bounce again. Our earlier mentioned bullish view towards 30000/31000 is negated while below 29500.

Shanghai (3461.98, -48.62, -1.28%) as come down sharply below 3475 resistance mentioned previously. A further fall below 3450, if seen will be bearish towards 3400. A strong break above 3475/3500 is needed to see a rise towards 3550+.

COMMODITIES

Crude prices have surged as the US has opened its borders for international travel indicating a boost in jet fuel demand going ahead. Brent can rise to 87.50 while WTI can rise to 86 in the near term. Gold has dipped a bit while below 1835/40 but it needs to break on the upside soon to continue moving higher in the coming sessions. Copper has dipped while below 4.45 but can again bounce back from 4.25 soon. Silver is headed towards 24.65-25 while above 24.

Brent (85.20) and WTI (84.34) have risen sharply as the US reopened the country’s borders for international travel as a sign of an increase in demand for jet fuel going ahead. We may have to allow for a rise to 87.50 and 86 on Brent and WTI respectively.

Gold (1830.30) has dipped from 1832.72 and has interim resistance in the 1835-1840 region which if holds can produce a decline towards 1810-1800 on the downside before again a sharp rise is seen. Else an immediate break above 1835/40 is needed to give more weightage for further bullishness. That if seen may put downtrend since 2100 (Aug’20) into question.

Silver (24.32) looks stable just now and while above 24, there is scope for a rise to 25. Interim resistance is seen near 24.65/70 which if holds can produce a fall towards 24-23 in the medium term.

Copper (4.3615) tested 4.45 yesterday before coming off rom there. As mentioned yesterday, 4.45 may act as a decent resistance for the near term, pushing the price down towards 4.30/25before again attempting to bounce back towards 4.45/50 in the medium term.

FOREX

Dollar Index and Euro seem stable just now. Dollar Index holds above support near 93.65 while Euro is falling while below decent resistance near 1.16-1.1650. Aussie, EURJPY, Pound and Dollar Yen all look strongly bearish for the near to medium term. USDCNY can be ranged within 6.3750/38-6.40 while USDINR can attempt to rise to 74.20/25-74.40/50 before falling from there.

Dollar Index (94.023) has bounced from 93.87 and while above 93.75/60, the index could remain higher within 93.65-94.25 region. A break on either side in the near term will indicate further direction.

Euro (1.1583) tested 1.1609 yesterday before falling off from there. While below 1.16-1.1650 region we may keep intact our bearish view of seeing a test of 1.15-1.14 .

EURJPY (130.71) has support near 130.50 which if holds can produce a bounce to 131.50-131.75 before the cross again resumes its downtrend towards 130-129.50.

Aussie (0.7364) has fallen sharply and may continue to fall while below 0.74. The view is strongly bearish for a target of 0.7350-0.7315.

Pound (1.3559) had risen to 1.36 but came off sharply from there. While below 1.36, a fall to 1.35 is possible. Unless a break on either side of 1.36-1.35 is seen, it may remain in a sideways consolidation. Broad range of 1.37-1.33 may hold for a couple of weeks.

Dollar-Yen (112.85) has fallen breaking below 113. View is strongly bearish just now and there is scope for a fall to 112.55-112 in the medium term.

USDCNY (6.3935) tested 6.3869 yesterday and has bounced from there. A range of 6.40-6.3750/38 can hold for the near term before a decisive rise is seen.

INTEREST RATES

US Treasury Yields remain stable at the near-end while those at the far-end has dipped further. There is room for the 10Yr and 30Yr to dip further to test their key supports and then bounce-back again. We expect the Treasury yield to remain in a broad sideways range for some time. The German Yields have come down towards their intermediate supports much faster than expected. A corrective bounce is possible in the coming days before the broader downmove resumes. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI dipped further yesterday and keeps our bearish view intact of falling further from here.

The US 2Yr (0.43%) and the 5Yr (1.09%) Treasury yields remain stable while the 10Yr (1.46%) and 30Yr (1.83%) have dipped slightly. Our view remains the same. 1.4%-1.35% (10Yr) and 1.8%-1.75% (30Yr) are important supports that can be tested in the near-term. We expect the yields to bounce from there and remain in a broad range of 1.35%-1.65% (10Yr) and 1.75%-2.1/2.2% (30Yr) for some time.

The German 2Yr (-0.76%), 5Yr (-0.59%), 10Yr (-0.30%) and the 30Yr (0.0%) have declined again sharply across tenors. The 30Yr has dipped to -0.3% as expected and has room to extend the fall to -0.4% before bouncing back again. The 30Yr has come down to 0% much faster than anticipated and can see a corrective bounce to 0.1% from here and then a fresh fall to -0.1% and -0.2% can be seen.

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Morning Market OUTLOOK for #STOCKS,#COMMODITIES, and #FOREX: 29 October 2021

On 29 Oct 2021 By Financial Consultant _Forex_Gold Xauusd| Fund ManagerIn Commodity, Forex, GOLD, Indices, INDICES, Online Forex Education, SILVER (XAGUSD), WTI, WTI CRUDE OIL, XauusdLeave a comment

Dollar Index Fell Sharply To Levels Below 93.50

STOCKS

Equities seem to have recovered a bit. Dow has risen back after a sharp rise seen in the previous session. Although there is scope to rise towards crucial resistance near 36000, while the level holds, medium term rise could be limited on the upside. Dax can test 15400 before rising back again towards 15600/800/900 in the medium term. Nikkei and Shanghai are stable. Nikkei can fall to 28250/000 while Shanghai is bullish while above 3500, else can fall to 3400/3350 before rising back. Nifty and Sensex saw a sharp fall breaking below respective supports at 18000 and 60000. A fall to 17400 and 59000 looks likely while below the broken supports if the indices are unable to bounce back immediately today.

Dow (35730.48, +239.79, +0.68%) has risen again today. The index can consolidate between 36000-35500/250 for some time before breaking on either side. 36000 is crucial resistance on the upside.

DAX (15696.33, -9.48, +0.06%) has dipped further. A range of 15900-15400 is holding well. A strong break on either side of the range is needed to form the next view and get clarity. While below 15900, we can see a fall towards 15400 in the coming sessions.

Shanghai (3524.22, +5.80, +0.16%) has been stable.The support at 3500 is holding for now and can produce a bounce towards 3600 again. In case the index breaks below 3500,then the next level to watch will be 3400/3350.

COMMODITIES

Crude prices have recovered from fall seen yesterday. Watch resistance at 85 and 83 on Brent and WTI respectively to see if the price holds lower or breaks above resistance in the near term. Gold and Silver have fallen back a bit. Gold can rise on a sustained break above 1800. Silver can trade within 23.50-24.50 for now. Copper has risen well and can rise towards 4.80/90 while above 4.40.

Brent (84) and WTI (82.84) have again risen back today after a sharp fall seen yesterday. Watch resistance at 85 on Brent and 83 on WTI.

Gold (1797.90) has been hovering near the level of 1800.A strong and sustained break above 1800 is needed for the view to be bullish towards 1820/1840. While below 1800,a fall towards 1770/60 cannot be negated.

Silver (24.02) has scope to test 23.50 before again rising back to 24+ levels in the medium term. Overall range of 23.50-24.50/25 may hold for now.

Copper (4.4330) has bounced back after testing the low of 4.30.While above 4.40,the view remains bullish towards 4.80/90 on the upside.

FOREX

Dollar Index fell sharply yesterday after the US GDP data release yesterday for Q3. There is scope for a fall towards 93 before bouncing back higher in the near term. This could take Euro up to 1.17-1.1750 in the near term before reversing from there. EURJPY may hold above 131.50 and rise towards 133-133.50. Aussie and Pound has scope to trade within 0.7550-0.7450 and 1.3650-1.3850 respectively for the near to medium term. USDCNY trades lower today but can have scope for a test of 6.40/42 if it does not fall immediately from current levels. USDINR can be ranged within 75.0-74.70 today.

Dollar Index (93.406) fell sharply to levels below 93.50 and while the fall sustains, it can test 93.30-93.00 before bouncing higher from there. Overall trend looks bearish which could be accompanied with some interim corrective upmoves. Any break below 93 can take the index down to 90-89.55 levels.

Euro (1.1674) rose to 1.1692 before coming off from there. While the Dollar Index trades lower, there may be scope for a rise in Euro towards 1.17-1.1750. While we may hold on to our longer term bearish view below 1.1750, any break above 1.1750 may signal fresh upmove targeting 1.18-1.19 on the upside in the longer run. Immediate levels to watch would be 1.17-1.1750.

EURJPY (132.61) is holding above 131.50 just now. While above 131.50, there is scope to rise back towards 133-133.50 in the near term. But a break below 131.50, if seen would bring in fresh bearishness in the medium term.

Aussie (0.7539) has interim resistance near 0.7550/60 and higher at 0.76 which if holds can produce a fall in Aussie in the near term towards 0.7450. Any sustained break above 0.76, if seen would bring in long term bullishness.

Pound (1.3791) is holding below important resistance near 1.3845/50 and while below that, a fall to 1.3650-1.36 can be seen eventually. Overall trend is bearish for the near term while below 1.3850.

Dollar-Yen (113.53) has support near 113.25-113.00 which if holds can produce a bounce back to 114.25/75 keeping a broad range of 113-114.75 for the near term. Any break below 113, if seen can indicate a fresh decline towards 112.25-112 in the medium term. A fall in Dollar Yen below 113 would look more likely as it has high directional correlation with Dollar Index which looks bearish from current levels.

USDCNY (6.3910) has fallen after testing 6.4046 yesterday. It can either sustain the fall and head towards 6.38 and lower in the near term or rise towards 6.42 on the upside before falling off from there.

USDINR (74.9250) bounced back from 74.76 yesterday holding above the interim support near 74.70. A range of 75-74.70/75 may hold for today.

INTEREST RATES

US Treasury Yields have inched up slightly but have immediate resistance ahead which will have to be broken for them to move up further. While the resistance holds, a further fall is possible in the coming days. On the German yields, the 30Yr looks bearish to fall further from here while the 10Yr is range bound for now with broader bias being bearish. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI can consolidate in a broad range for some time before a fresh fall is seen.

The US 2Yr (0.49%) Treasury yield has dipped while the 5Yr (1.18%), 10Yr (1.57%) and the 30Yr (1.98%) have inched up slightly. It will have to be seen if the 10Yr and 30Yr manage to rise past 1.6% and 2% respectively which is needed to move back to 1.75% and 2.2%. While below 1.6% (10Yr) and 2% (30Yr) the 10Yr can test 1.5% and the 30Yr can fall to 1.85%. We will have to wait and watch.

The German 2Yr (-0.63%), 5Yr (-0.44%), 10Yr (-0.14%) and 30Yr (0.16%) have risen back well across tenors. But the broader view is bearish. The 30Yr can dip to 0.1%-0.05% while it remains below 0.2%. The 10Yr is stuck between -0.1% and -0.2%. The bias is bearish to break -0.2% and see a fall to -0.3% and -0.4% in the coming weeks.

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Intraday Market Analysis -#GBP Consolidates Gains,#USDCAD sell-off continues and #USOIL gains support: 21 October 2021

On 21 Oct 2021 By Financial Consultant _Forex_Gold Xauusd| Fund ManagerIn ForexLeave a comment

GBPUSD seeks support

The pound’s rally stalled after Britain’s core CPI dropped below 3% in September. The pair’s recovery has picked up the pace after a close above the daily resistance at 1.3730.

1.3900 is the main hurdle and a bullish breakout would resume the uptrend. However, the RSI’s triple top in the overbought area indicates an overextension. A pullback is necessary to let the bulls consolidate their gains.

The supply-turned-demand zone around 1.3710 is the first level to watch for. Its breach may trigger more profit-takings towards 1.3630.

USDCAD sell-off continues

The Canadian dollar rallied after solid inflation data in September. The US dollar has found little buying interest near July’s lows (1.2310).

A bullish RSI divergence out of the oversold area suggests a deceleration in the downward momentum. But buyers need confirmation of a reversal, and a break above1.2370 would be the first step to force sellers to cover.

Sentiment remains bearish unless the pair lifts offers around 1.2500. Failing that, the greenback could be vulnerable to a new round of sell-off towards 1.2250.

USOIL gains support

WTI crude bounced back after the EIA reported a surprise drop in US inventories.

A previous double top had indicated potential exhaustion as the price struggled to achieve a higher high. However, the price has found support at 81.00 as buyers were eager to stake in at a better price.

Overall sentiment remains upbeat and a close above at 83.80 may trigger an extended rally to 86.00. An overbought RSI may temporarily limit the momentum. But as long as the price is above the said support the directional bias stays bullish.

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Morning Market OUTLOOK for #STOCKS,#COMMODITIES AND #FOREX: 04 October 2021

On 4 Oct 2021 By Financial Consultant _Forex_Gold Xauusd| Fund ManagerIn Commodity, Forex, GOLD, Indices, INDICES, Online Forex Education, SILVER (XAGUSD), WTI, WTI CRUDE OIL, XauusdLeave a comment

Pound Rose Well From 1.34 Last Week

STOCKS

Dow has recovered from the sharp fall seen last week and may continue to move up now while Dax still trades lower but needs to sustain above 15000 to slowly move up. Nikkei needs to sustain above crucial support at 28000 to move up eventually while Shanghai is bullish above 3500. Nifty and Sensex may move up today.

Dow (34326.46, +482.54, +1.43%) has bounced well from levels below 34000 seen last week. A rise to 34500-34750 and towards 35000 can be possible in the near term.

DAX (15156.44, -104.25, -0.68%) has fallen after a sharp bounce from 15000 seen last week. A rise to 15400-15500 cannot be negated if the index sustains above 15000.

Nikkei (28497.57, -273.50, -0.95%) has fallen sharply to test 28500 as expected. Breaking below 28500, we may now look for a test of 28000 which is a strong support and can hold to produce a bounce back to 29000-29500.

Shanghai (3568.17, +31.87, +0.90%) markets are closed till 7th October. While above 3500, view is bullish.

COMMODITIES

Crude prices have risen and could be stuck in a sideways range below immediate resistances of $80 on Brent and $76 on WTI. We would wait for price confirmation to indicate that a top is in place for the medium term. Gold has risen well and a sustained trade above 1760 can take it higher to 1780/90 on the upside. Silver can rise to 23-23.50 while above 21.50. Copper is bullish while above 4.05 and can test 4.25/35 soon. Possible sideways trade between respective supports and resistances look likely for now.

Brent (78.97) has immediate support near 77 (moved up from 76 mentioned in the last week) and a possible rise from 77 back to 80 cannot be negated. A range of 77-88 can hold for the very near term before a decline is seen towards 74 or lower in the medium term. As mentioned last week, we need to see a decisive break below 76 to confirm a reversal in Brent. WTI (75.53) on the other hand has immediate resistance near 76 which if holds can keep the price between 76 and 73 for sometime.

Gold (1762.60) if manages to rise above current levels can break above immediate trend resistance and head towards 1780/90 on the upside. On the downside, 1720 continues to hold as important support.

Silver (22.60) has risen well from 21.50 last week and while the bounce sustains, a test of 23-23.50 looks possible followed by a decline again from there.

FOREX

Mixed view on currencies just now. Pound and Aussie have recovered a bit on Dollar weakness but unless a confirmation is seen that Dollar Index will not rebound to test 94.5 and remain lower, movement in Aussie and Pound could be dicey. Euro has bounced to 1.16 but unless a break above 1.17-1.1750 is seen in the medium term, we keep our bearish view of testing 1.15-1.14 intact. EURJPY may test support at 128 which if holds may produce a bounce to 130.50 else a fall to 127 cannot be negated. USDCNY can be ranged within 6.44-6.47/48. Any break below 6.44 can trigger a fall to 6.41/40. Watch a bounce in Dollar-Rupee from 74.0/10 else we may expect a test of 73.80 on the downside.

Dollar Index (94.04) tested 93.90 before bouncing back from there. If immediate interim support near 93.90/80 holds, we may see yet another rise from here towards 94.50 or higher, which could bring in fresh volatility in other currencies. Else a break below 93.80 is needed for the index to fall. For now watch price action within 93.80-94.50 region.

Euro (1.1598) tested 1.1562 and has bounced from there. It needs to sustain a rise above 1.16 to head higher to 1.1650-1.17 in the near term. Thereafter a fall back to current levels look possible. Any reversal signal will need a break above 1.1750. Till then we continue to keep intact a possible test of 1.15-1.14 in the medium term

EURJPY (128.81) has support near 128 which if holds can produce a bounce to 129-130.50 again in the medium term. Failure to rise from 128 can open chances of a further fall to 127-126. Watch price action near 128 for now.

Dollar-Yen (111.08) has declined sharply from 112.079 seen last week. As resistance near 112 holds, the pair may test 110.80-110.50 before again rising back from there.

Aussie (0.7260) is attempting to move up and can rise towards 0.7320 slowly in the near term. On the downside 0.7170 may hold well.

Pound (1.3539) rose well from 1.34 last week. A possible rise to 1.3650 looks possible before a decline is seen from there.

USDCNY (6.4452) may continue to old within 6.47/48-6.44 range and any break below 6.44 can lead to a fall towards 6.41/40.

INTEREST RATES

The US Treasury Yields have dipped further but have near-term supports which have to be broken to see a much deeper fall and avoid a fresh rise. The German yields have dipped slightly but remain bullish in the near-term to test their long-term resistances and then reverse lower to resume the broader downtrend. The 5Yr and 10Yr GoI are moving up in line with our expectation. They have key resistances ahead which if broken can see an extended rise this week.

The US 2Yr (0.26%), 5Yr (0.93%), 10Yr (1.46%) and the 30Yr (2.03%) %) have dipped further on Friday. The 10Yr sustains below 1.5%. A break below 1.4% from here will negate the chances of seeing 1.6% on the upside and drag it to 1.3% and lower again. The 30Yr must break below 2% to revisit 1.9%-1.8% levels and also negate the chances of seeing 2.1%-2.2% on the upside

The German 2Yr (-0.71), 5Yr (-0.59%), 10Yr (-0.23%) and 30Yr (0.25%) have dipped across tenors on Friday. The near-term view is bullish. The 30Yr can rise to 0.30%-0.35% while it sustains above 0.2%. The 10Yr has an immediate resistance at -0.2% a break above which can take it up to – 0.1%. Thereafter the yields can reverse lower and see a fresh fall.

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Morning Market OUTLOOK for #STOCKS,#COMMODITIES AND #FOREX: 01 October 2021

On 1 Oct 20211 Oct 2021 By Financial Consultant _Forex_Gold Xauusd| Fund ManagerIn Commodity, Forex, GOLD, Indices, INDICES, Online Forex Education, SILVER (XAGUSD), WTI, WTI CRUDE OIL, XauusdLeave a comment

Pound Fell Further To 1.34 Today

STOCKS

Equities are mixed. While Dow, Dax, Shanghai, Nifty and Sensex have reversed and bounced well after recent dips, Nikkei continues to fall and looks bearish for a few more sessions before a bounce is seen. Dow can rise to 34500-35000, Dax is bullish while above 15000. Shanghai is bullish while above 3500 and can rise towards 3600-3700 slowly. Nifty and Sensex look bullish within the broad range of 17600-18000 and 59000-60000 respectively.

Dow (34390.72, +90.73, +0.26%) has recovered a bit and while above 34000, there is scope for a rise to 34500-35000 on the upside. We do not negate a possible fall to 34000-33900/500 too and need confirmation to negate such a fall on a rise above 35000.

DAX (15365.27, +116.71, +0.77%) has bounced well and while above 15200, it can rise to test 15500-15600 before again falling back towards 15000-15200 on the downside.

Nikkei (29433.68, -110.61, -0.37%) has fallen further today and could test 29000-28500 before rising again from there in the longer run.

Shanghai (3550.52, +14.22, +0.41%) has moved up slightly. While above 3500, there is scope for a slow rise to 3600 and eventually towards 3700.

COMMODITIES

Crude prices have come off but we need more downside for confirmation of a top. Brent needs to break below 76 and WTI below 74 to indicate downside. Any break above 80 on Brent and 76 on WTI can have scope for a test of 82.50-83 and 78 respectively. Gold can still test 1700 before bouncing from there. Silver has broken below crucial support at 22 and if it does not see an immediate bounce from 21, it can plunge further down. Copper is stuck within the 4.0-4.40 range and can fall towards 4.10/4.00 before rising back.

Brent (77.96) has continued to fall while WTI (74.83) has risen a bit. As mentioned yesterday, a fall below 76 and 74 respectively will confirm that a top is possibly in place and we may look for lower targets in the coming sessions. While below 80 and 76/77, view is bearish for a test of 75-70 on Brent and 72-71 on WTI in the medium term. Any break above 80 on Brent and 76/77 on WTI can take the price higher towards 82.50/83 and 78 respectively.

Gold (1732.20) fell to test 1726 before rising back from there. It needs to break above 1740 and sustain higher to negate a possible fall to the lower end of the 1725-1700 range. Else we continue to look for a test of 1700 before a bounce towards 1760/80 or higher is seen. .

Silver (21.53) has broken below our mentioned support near 22.50-22.0. This is crucial and no immediate support is visible below current levels. We will have to wait for a reversal signal.

FOREX

Dollar trades sharply higher as it break above our expected resistance at 94. Euro has been dragged lower to 1.16, which can break and fall to 1.15-1.14 as the Dollar seems to be heading towards 95. EURJPY has been dragged down too and can fall to 129.50-129 in the near term. Pound and Aussie look bearish. USDCNY is stable within 6.48-6.45/44. USDINR has scope to rise to 74.50.

Dollar Index (94.2650) tested 94.432 yesterday and has just come off a bit. This has been contrary to our expected resistance near 93.80-94.00 to hold. While the index trades above 94, there is scope for a rise towards 95 on the upside.

Euro (1.1607) has tested 1.1589 and has come down as per our expectation of a fall. Failure to hold above 1.16 can drag down Euro further towards 1.15-1.14 as Dollar Index heads higher towards 95.

EURJPY (129.80) has been pulled down by a weaker Euro as resistance near 130.50 has also held well. A fall to 129.50-129 looks likely soon.

Dollar-Yen (111.83) had already showed sharp upmove before the Dollar Index broke above 94. The pair has tested 112 and may find difficulty in breaking on the upside just now. We may expect a short corrective fall to 111.50-111 before rising higher. A rise in Dollar Index towards 95 can take USDJPY above 112 soon.

Aussie (0.7204) fell to 0.7170 yesterday before bouncing back slightly from there. Failure to hold the bounce can bring the rate down to 0.71 in the near term. To negate further downside, Aussie has to break above 0.7225-0.7250 and rise higher.

Pound (1.3450) fell further to 1.34 today and can fall further towards 1.3320. Else an immediate bounce from current levels is needed for the Pound to move up towards 1.36. While the US Dollar trades strong, Pound may decline further.

USDCNY (6.4667) looks stable and could range within 6.48-6.45/44 for some more time.

INTEREST RATES

The US Treasury yields have dipped slightly. As mentioned yesterday, we see limited upside from here with strong resistances ahead. We expect the yields to remain below these resistances and reverse lower in the coming days. The German yields sustain higher and can move up in the near-term before turning down. The 5Yr and 10Yr GoI are hovering above their key supports which if broken can drag them lower in the coming days and negate the chances of seeing any further rise.

The US 2Yr (0.29%), 5Yr (0.99%), 10Yr (1.51%) and the 30Yr (2.05%) Treasury yields have dipped slightly. 1.6% on the 10Yr and 2.1%-2.2% on the 30Yr are likely to be a cap on the upside for now. As mentioned yesterday, we expect the yields to reverse lower and see a fresh fall either from current levels itself or after an extended rise to test the above mentioned resistances.

The German 2Yr (-0.70), 5Yr (-0.56%), 10Yr (-0.21%) and 30Yr (0.25%) yields remain higher and stable. The outlook is bullish. The 30Yr can rise to 0.3%-0.35% while it sustains above 0.2%. The 10Yr has an immediate resistance at -0.20% and can rise to -0.1% on a break above it. Thereafter a fresh fall is possible.

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Morning Market OUTLOOK for #STOCKS,#COMMODITIES and #FOREX: 30 September 2021

On 30 Sep 2021 By Financial Consultant _Forex_Gold Xauusd| Fund ManagerIn Commodity, Forex, GOLD, Indices, INDICES, Online Forex Education, SILVER (XAGUSD), WTI, WTI CRUDE OIL, XauusdLeave a comment

STOCKS

DAX (15365.27, +116.71, +0.77%) has bounced well and while above 15200, it can rise to test 15500-15600 before again falling back towards 15000-15200 on the downside.

Nikkei (29433.68, -110.61, -0.37%) has fallen further today and could test 29000-28500 before rising again from there in the longer run.

Shanghai (3550.52, +14.22, +0.41%) has moved up slightly. While above 3500, there is scope for a slow rise to 3600 and eventually towards 3700.

COMMODITIES

Silver (21.53) has broken below our mentioned support near 22.50-22.0. This is crucial and no immediate support is visible below current levels. We will have to wait for a reversal signal.

FOREX

Euro (1.1607) has tested 1.1589 and has come down as per our expectation of a fall. Failure to hold above 1.16 can drag down Euro further towards 1.15-1.14 as Dollar Index heads higher towards 95.

EURJPY (129.80) has been pulled down by a weaker Euro as resistance near 130.50 has also held well. A fall to 129.50-129 looks likely soon.

INTEREST RATES

The 5Yr GoI (5.6471%) has an immediate support at 5.64% which if broken can take the yield lower to 5.6%-5.55% again. While 5.64% holds, a consolidation between 5.64%-5.68%/5.70% can be seen for some time.

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Morning Market OUTLOOK for #STOCKS,#COMMODITIES and #FOREX: 24 September 2021

On 24 Sep 2021 By Financial Consultant _Forex_Gold Xauusd| Fund ManagerIn Commodity, Forex, GOLD, Indices, INDICES, Online Forex Education, SILVER (XAGUSD), WTI, WTI CRUDE OIL, XauusdLeave a comment

Market Morning Briefing: Pound Seems To Be Holding Above 1.36

STOCKS

Dow trades higher after the FOMC and looks bullish for the near term. A rise above 35000 is needed to prevent further fall towards 33000. Dax is also bullish and needs to sustain above 15500 to move up further. Nikkei looks bearish while below 30000. Shanghai has risen well from support and looks bullish. Nifty and Sensex can see a steady rise in the near term.

Dow (34258.32, +338.48, +1%) has risen back above 34000 and while it holds strong, we may expect a rise back towards 34500-34750. However, in the medium term it needs to rise above 35000 and sustain higher to prevent any vulnerability to fall back towards 33000.

DAX (15506.74, +158.21, +1.03%) has risen well too but needs to rise and sustain above 15500 to indicate bullishness towards 15700/800 in the medium term.

Nikkei (29639.40, -200.31, -0.67%) continues to fall over the last few sessions and the view is bearish while below 30000 to see a dip towards 29250-29000 followed by a rise towards 30500-3700 eventually in the longer run. Japan markets are closed today.

Shanghai (3648.57, +20.08, +0.55%) rose sharply from support near 3560 and while that holds, view is bullish on the shanghai.

COMMODITIES

Commodities have risen well. Crude prices have risen and are heading towards resistances. Brent needs to hold below 77-78 while WTI can test 73-74 before coming off from there. Any break above the mentioned resistances can take them higher towards 80 and 75 respectively which are crucial in the medium term. Gold has dipped and needs to sustain above 1740 to move up again soon. Else a fall to 1725/00 cannot be negated in the longer run. Silver can fall towards 22-21.50 but before that it can attempt to rise towards 23.50. Copper tested 4 and has bounced back well from there. It can now rise back towards 4.30/40.

Brent (76.44) has risen well breaking above 75 and could now head towards interim resistance at 77-78 above which there is crucial resistance at 80. The broad 77-80 zone is likely to be tested before a sharp fall towards 70 is seen in the medium term.

WTI (72.41) has risen well as expected and could test 73-74 in the near term.

Gold (1763.90) has fallen as expected from resistance zone of 1780/90 and while that holds, a dip to 1740 cannot be negated. We would have to watch price action near 1740 to see if the price bounces from there or falls further down in the medium term. While correlation with Euro remains strong, a possible bounce in Euro from 1.1665 can help Gold bounce back too.

Silver (22.55) has risen a bit and has scope to rise towards 23.50 before falling off from there. Any break below 22 if seen in the near term would prove contrary to our view and lead to a sharp fall towards 22-21.50. .

FOREX

FED announced that it would start tapering by end of this year and stop purchases by mid-2022. It also signaled 3-rate hikes in 2023. Dollar Index rose sharply but needs to sustain above 93.40 to trade higher else a decline towards 93 is possible soon. Euro has broken below 1.17 and may test 1.1665 support which needs to hold to prevent further dip to 1.16. Aussie and Pound have bounce well from immediate supports. USDCNY is holding below resistance zone of 6.47/48. USDINR can test 74 on the upside but has 50% chance that it would come off from there back to 73.80/60. Watch price action near 74.00

Dollar Index (93.44) rose sharply to 93.4150 yesterday as FED announced starting of tapering by end of this year and signaled 3-rate hikes in 2023. Although the index has come off a bit it needs to break below 93.40 and sustain lower to avoid any further rise towards 93.60-93.80 in the near term. Watch price action near 93.40.

Euro (1.1697) fell to test 1.1684 yesterday before rising slightly from there. Note support near 1.1665 which needs to hold in order to keep some room on the upside intact. Else a fall towards 1.16 cannot be neagted.

EURJPY (128.50) has bounced well from support near 128 and while it holds, there is scope for a rise to 129 in the near term.

Dollar-Yen (109.88) rose sharply along with the rise in Dollar Index. But note that the pair still trades within 109-110.40 range which could hold for some more time.

Aussie (0.7226) has paused its fall near 0.7220-0.7200 and a bounce looks possible from current levels towards 0.7250-0.73 eventually.

Pound (1.3625) seems to be holding above 1.36 and while that holds, a bounce back to 1.3650-1.37 cannot be negated in the near term. Only a break below 1.36 if seen will force to look for lower levels.

INTEREST RATES

The US Federal Reserve left the rates unchanged at 0%-0.25%. It had said that the stimulus taper will begin soon. The PCE and Core PCE inflation projections have been revised higher to 4.2% and 3.7% respectively from its earlier projection of 3.4% and 3% respectively. The US Treasury yields have risen at the near-end (2Yr and 5Yr) while the far-end (10Yr and 30Yr) yields have seen a dip. A break below the immediate supports can drag the far-end yields further lower from here. The German yields remain stable and are likely see a fresh fall from here and resume the broader downtrend. The 5Yr and 10Yr GoI have risen-back yesterday. However, they have key resistances ahead that can cap the upside and keep it pressured for a further fall going forward.

The US 2Yr (0.24%) and 5Yr (0.85%) Treasury yieldshave risen while the 10Yr (1.30%) and the 30Yr (1.81%) have dipped after the Fed meeting outcome. A fall below 1.28% on the 10Yr and 1.8% on the 30Yr can drag the yields to 1.2%-1.18% (10Yr) and 1.7% (30Yr) in the coming days. It will also negate the chances of seeing 1.4%-1.45% (10Yr) and 2% (30Yr) on the upside. We will have to wait and watch the follow-up movement in the coming sessions.

The German 2Yr (-0.72), 5Yr (-0.64%), 10Yr (-0.33%) and 30Yr (0.16%)yields continue to remain stable below their key resistances. Our view remains the same. We expect the yields to resume the broader downtrend and see a fresh fall from here. The 10Yr can fall to -0.5% while below -0.25% and the 30Yr can test 0% while it sustains below 0.2%.

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Morning Market OUTLOOK for #STOCKS,#COMMODITIES and #FOREX: 23 September 2021

On 23 Sep 2021 By Financial Consultant _Forex_Gold Xauusd| Fund ManagerIn Commodity, Forex, GOLD, Indices, INDICES, Online Forex Education, SILVER (XAGUSD), WTI, WTI CRUDE OIL, XauusdLeave a comment

Market Morning Briefing: Pound Seems To Be Holding Above 1.36

STOCKS

DAX (15506.74, +158.21, +1.03%) has risen well too but needs to rise and sustain above 15500 to indicate bullishness towards 15700/800 in the medium term.

Shanghai (3648.57, +20.08, +0.55%) rose sharply from support near 3560 and while that holds, view is bullish on the shanghai.

COMMODITIES

WTI (72.41) has risen well as expected and could test 73-74 in the near term.

FOREX

EURJPY (128.50) has bounced well from support near 128 and while it holds, there is scope for a rise to 129 in the near term.

Dollar-Yen (109.88) rose sharply along with the rise in Dollar Index. But note that the pair still trades within 109-110.40 range which could hold for some more time.

Aussie (0.7226) has paused its fall near 0.7220-0.7200 and a bounce looks possible from current levels towards 0.7250-0.73 eventually.

INTEREST RATES

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Rehana William |Financial Consultant _Forex_Gold Xauusd| Fund Manager

Tag: WHAT IS THE MARKET OUTLOOK FOR STOCKS

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Market Morning Briefing: Pound Seems To Be Holding Above 1.36