Two trades to watch today: #EURUSD, #WTI oil (18 Nov 2021)

EUR/USD looks to jobless claims, central bank speakers. WTI on track for worst weekly loss since March 2020.

EUR/USD looks to jobless claims, central bank speakers

EUR/USD is trades mildly higher after a flat finish yesterday. The US dollar slipped from a 16 month high as investors booked profits and awaited fresh guidance from the Fed.

The Euro was also under pressure after Core CPI was downwardly revised to 2% from 2.1% taking pressure off the already more dovish ECB to tighten monetary policy.

Today the economic calendar is a little quiet. US jobless claims are expected to fall to a fresh post pandemic low of 260k.

Plenty of ECB and Fed speakers will be hitting the airwaves, shedding light on the direction of monetary policy and potentially the growing diversion between the two central banks.

Where next for EUR/USD?

EUR/USD has seen a dramatic drop over the past week. A support level reached yesterday at 1.1291 appears to be holding as the prices edges higher and the RSI moves out of oversold territory.

Any meaningful recovery would need to retake 1.1353 the 20 sma in order to approach 1.14 round number and 1.1450 the 50 sma and weekly high. Above here the buyers could gain traction.

Meanwhile a break below 1.1290 and 1.1263 yesterday’s low could open the door to 1.1240 April 2019 high.

WTI on track for worst weekly loss since March 2020

WTI crude oil is on track for its 4th straight week of losses and trades at its lowest level since early October.

Oil prices have come under pressure amid growing concerns that world leaders could co-ordinate tapping strategic reserves, at the request of Biden in order to cool global energy prices.

Biden asked China, India and Japan, the which along with the US make up the world’s largest oil buyers to look into releasing stocks piles.

Where next for oil prices?

WTI crude oil has been trending lower since late October. The price has fallen below its 200 sma on the 4 hour chart. The 50 sma has crossed below the 200 sma in a death cross bearish signal and the price has also taken out a key support at 77.70.

The RSI is just tipping into oversold territory so some consolidation could be seen here before further losses.

Support can be seen at 76.00 round number ahead of 74.85 the swing low October 7.

Any meaningful recovery would need to retake 77.75 the November 4 low and 78.45 the November 15 low in order to exposer the 50 sma at 80.40

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Weekly Forex Technical Analysis (15-19 November 2021): US Dollar Index,EURUSD,GBPJPY,AUDJPY,USDJPY AND GBPCHF

Technical Analysis

U.S. Dollar Index

The weekly price chart below shows the U.S. Dollar Index printed a bullish candlestick last week, again making its highest weekly closing price in over one year. The price is showing short-term bullish momentum, and the price is of course above its levels from 3 and 6 months ago, which shows that the long-term bullish trend in the greenback is still valid. Notably, the price is now bumping into a very key resistance zone for the USD, shown in the price chart below at 12140/58. If the price can break and hold above 12158 next week, that could be a key long-term bullish breakout.

Thebest strategy in the Forex market over the coming week will probably be to look for long trades in commodities, or in long USD Forex trades.

EUR/USD

This major currency pair has been in along-term bearish trend since May,but with deep bullish retracements, making it difficult to trade. However, last week saw the price fall sharply, especially on Wednesday following the U.S. inflation data release. The week ended at a 15-month low closing price, and the price closed very near its low, which is a bearish sign.

This currency pair is likely to fall further over the coming days, with no key support levels above the $1.1400 area.

Traders do need to be careful with this currency pair to only trade short when the short-term momentum is bearish.

AUD/JPY

We had expected the level at 83.02 might act as support, as it had acted previously as both support and resistance. Note how these “flipping” levels can work well. The H1 chart below shows how the price action rejected this level with a large near-engulfing candlestickright at the end of last Wednesday’s Asian session (typically one of the best times to trade currency pairs involving Asian currencies such as these) marked by the up arrow in the price chart below.

The trade has so far given a maximum reward to risk ratio of about 4 to 1 based on the size of the entry candlestick structure.

GBP/JPY

The British pound initially tried to rally against the Japanese yen last week but gave back the gains to crash into the ¥152.50 level. This is an area that would continue to be very supportive, but it is worth noting that the British pound has struggled across the board. With the Bank of England now dovish, it should continue to weigh upon the pound in general. That being said, though, the GBP/JPY is likely to be a little bit more sluggish than some of the other British pound-related pairs, simply because the Japanese yen is so weak itself. I would anticipate that rallies are going to continue to be sold into as we try to get down to the ¥150 level.

USD/JPY

The US dollar had initially fallen pretty hard during the course of the week but found enough support underneath to turn things around and show signs of life again. We reached towards the crucial ¥112.50 level, but then turned around to rally quite significantly. By the end of the week, we ended up staying within the flagging pattern that we have been in for a while. At this point, I think this remains a “buy on the dips market” going forward. The ¥115 level above is a major resistance barrier that must be acknowledged. Anything above there could open up a longer-term “buy-and-hold” scenario.

GBP/CHF

The British pound initially tried to rally against the Swiss franc but gave back gains during the course of the week to close near the 1.2350 level. At this point, it looks like we are still trying to make a move towards 1.22 handle, so I like the idea of shorting this market on little rallies that show signs of exhaustion. Ultimately, if we can break down below the 1.22 handle, we could see a move towards 1.18 level.

Bottom Line

I see the best opportunities in the financial markets this weekaslikely to be short EUR/USD, and long USD/TRY and Wheat.

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Weekly Forex Technical Analysis (8-12 NOV 2021): US Dollar Index,NASDAQ100,SP500,AUDUSD,GBPJPY,EURUSD,GBPCAD,USDCAD,GBPJPY AND GBPUSD

U.S. Dollar Index

The weekly price chart below shows the U.S. Dollar Index printed a bullish candlestick last week, making its highest weekly closing price in over one year. The price is showing weak short-term bullish momentum, and the price is of course above its levels from 3 and 6 months ago, which shows that the long-term bullish trend in the greenback is still valid. Thebest strategy in the Forex market over the coming week will probably be to look for long trades in stocks or commodities, or in long USD Forex trades.

GBP/USD

This major currency pair has been in a the long-term bearish trend since May,but with deep bullish retracements, making it difficult to trade. However, following the Bank of England’s slow reaction to changing monetary conditions last week, we saw a sharp drop ending inthe lowest weekly close here made in the last 10 months. Despite this, it should be noted that the price has not yet exceeded last week’s low, made at the support level of $1.3411.

If we get a daily (New York) close below $1.3411 – or ideally, below $1.3400 – we will probably see yet more downwards price movement, so there is likely to be a short trade opportunity here if this scenario plays out.

Traders do need to be careful to only trade short when the short-term momentum is bearish.

S&P 500 Index

After trading below its 100-day moving average just a few weeks ago, the major US stock index has been roaring ahead for the past five weeks, rising in value during this time by about 8%.The end of last week saw the price reach another new all-time high, after having traded above the round number at 4700 for the first time.

The weekly candlestick was solidly bullish and closed not far from the top of its price range. This, and the record high, are bullish signs.

The S&P 500 Index looks likely to remain a good potential buy.

NASDAQ 100 Index

After trading below its 100-day moving average just a few weeks ago, the major US technology stock index has been roaring ahead for the past five weeks, rising in value during this time by about 11%.Last week saw the price close at another new all-time high.

The weekly candlestick was solidly bullish and closed near the top of its price range. This, the above-average weekly price range, and the record high, are all bullish signs.

The NASDAQ 100 Index looks likely to be a good buy.

AUD/USD

We had expected the level at 0.7366 might act as resistance, as it had acted previously as both support and resistance. Note how these “flipping” levels can work well. The H1 chart below shows how the price action rejected this level with a large bullishoutside barright at the start of last Friday’s New York / London overlap session (typically one of the best times to trade currency pairs) marked by the up arrow in the price chart below.

GBP/JPY

The British pound got absolutely crushed last week after the Bank of England decided not to taper its bond purchasing program.The pound fell all the way down towards the ¥153 level, which suggests that we probably are going to test the purple box that I have on the chart, which should be supportive. Between here and the ¥152 level, I would anticipate some type of bounce, and if we do get that bounce, I think it could be a nice buying opportunity. If we break down below the ¥152 level, then we go looking towards the ¥150 region.

EUR/USD

The euro was all over the place last week to form a bit of a neutral candlestick. I believe we will probably continue to see a lot of that sideways action, but if we turn around and break above the 1.16 level again, then I think the market may try to recover. This will be all about the US dollar, and not necessarily the euro itself. I do anticipate that the euro is going to be very noisy, and I think short-term traders will continue to bounce this thing around between 1.15 and 1.16 before making a much longer-term move.

Bottom Line

I see the best opportunities in the financial markets this weekaslikely to belong of the S&P 500 & NASDAQ 500 Indices in US dollar terms, and long USD/TRYand short GBP/USD following respective daily (New York) closes beyond the long-term high or low closing prices.

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Intraday Market Analysis – USD Consolidates Gains,XAGUSD to test critical ceiling and SPX 500 tests all-time high(22 October 2021)

USDJPY seeks support

The US dollar steadies over lower-than-expected initial jobless claims.

Sentiment remains upbeat, however, the pair is struggling to climb past the psychological level of 115.00, probably due to overextension. The RSI’s double top in the overbought area and bearish divergence suggests that the rally could be losing steam.

A breach below 113.90 would prompt weaker hands to exit, leading to a pullback towards 113.00. A rebound past the said resistance would send the price to March 2017’s high of 115.40.

XAGUSD to test critical ceiling

Silver stalls as the greenback reclaims some lost ground. The break above the round number of 24.00 indicates strong commitment from the buy-side.

The bulls are looking at the major resistance at 24.80 from the daily timeframe, as a breakout would end a five-month-long correction and pave the way for a bullish reversal.

However, an overbought RSI coupled with a bearish divergence suggests possible exhaustion in the run-up. 23.60 would be the first level to watch for if the price pulls lower in search of support.

SPX 500 tests all-time high

The S&P 500 flies high supported by better-than-expected third-quarter earnings. The index has reached the previous all-time high at 4550.

A breakout may trigger a runaway rally. Nonetheless, a repeatedly overbought RSI may cause a limited pullback as buyers take profit.

A drop below the immediate support at 4515 would pull the trigger. 4445 would be next as it coincides with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the October rally. The bulls are likely to buy the dips though after sentiment turns optimistic.

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Intraday Market Analysis – WTI Rally Gains Traction, XAGUSD rises towards key resistance: 15 October 2021

USOIL consolidates gains

Oil prices jumped after the IEA raised its global oil demand growth forecast. WTI crude continues to grind its way up after it reached a seven-year high.

The RSI has returned to the neutrality area and a short-lived retracement met strong buying interest above 78.70.The bulls may raise volatility once again if they succeed in pushing back above the psychological tag of 82.00.

A newly overbought RSI may temporarily restrain the momentum. On the downside, a breakout could trigger a correction to 75.50.

XAGUSD rises towards key resistance

Silver advanced higher as the US dollar index licks wounds after a heavy decline.

The precious metal broke above the supply zone around the 30-day moving average (23.10). This is a sign of a bullish U-turn with 23.95 from the daily timeframe as the next target.

As the RSI flirts with the overbought territory, we can expect strong selling pressure at that level of interest. 22.90 is the immediate support in case of retracement. Further down, 22.20 is the bulls’ second line of defense.

US 100 attempts a bullish reversal

The Nasdaq 100 rose as investors anticipate strong profit growth in the third quarter.

The break above 14930 has prompted sellers to cover their positions, alleviating the bearish pressure in the process. The tech index has then secured support around 14600.

A bullish close above the psychological level of 15000 would bring some much-needed confidence to the long side. Then the daily resistance at 15415 would be in the crosshair. Meanwhile, the RSI’s overbought situation may cause a limited pullback to 14900.

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Two trades to watch: EUR/GBP, WTI oil : 11 October 2021

EUR/GBP extends gains as BoE could move to hike sooner. Oil prices keep on rising beyond $80.

EUR/GBP extends gains as BoE could move to hike sooner

EURGBP is pushing lower at the start of the new week, extending losses from the previous week.

The move lower comes after BoE policymaker Michael Saunders warned that households should brace themselves for a significantly earlier interest rate rise as inflationary pressure mount.

Rising energy prices and labour shortages mean that consumer inflation is expected to rise over 4% by the end of the year and remain elevated for longer than initially expected.

Meanwhile the ECB last week sent the Euro southwards after the minutes to the latest ECB meeting revealed that the central bank is looking into another bond purchasing programme for when the PEPP expires.

The central bank divergence is boosting GBP whilst dragging on EUR.

Where next for EUR/GBP?

EURGBP trades at an intraday low below 0.86. The pairs trades below its descending trendline dating back to late September and below its 20 & 50 sma on the4 hour chart.

The RSI is supportive of further downside whilst it remains out of oversold territory.

Immediate support can be seen at 0.8475, last week’s low. A break below here could open the door 0.8450 August’s low and year to date low.

On the upside, resistance can be seen at 0.85 the confluence of the 20 sma and the falling trendline. A move above here could see 0.8525 horizontal resistance come into focus ahead of the 50 sma at 0.8550

Oil prices keep on rising beyond $80

Crude oil jumped again as the new week kicks off, extending solid gains from last week and trading at 7-year highs as the energy crisis tightens its grip.

Gas and coal prices have been surging as economies recover from the pandemic and economic activity picks up. The rise in the price of these commodities makes oil comparatively cheaper and more attractive.

There are reports of blackouts in some stats in India whilst China has ordered the ramping up of coal production as prices rally.

Meanwhile OPEC voted to stick to the output increase agreed in July.

US added five new oil wells last week.

Where next for oil prices?

WTI oil price is extending its rebound from $61.79 on August 20 trading within the ascending channel from this date.

The RSI has tipped into overbought territory so there could be a period of consolidation or even a slight ease lower on the cards before an uptrend is resumed.

The price has pushed above $80 the round number and is heading for resistance at 81.98 the November 14 high and the upper band of the rising channel.

Support can be seen at 78.30/40 the October 4 high and October 8 low. Beyond here watch for 76.50 the September high and 74.80 October 7 low.

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Weekly Forex Technical Analysis 20-24 September 2021: US Dollar Index, NASDAQ100 Index, SP500 Index, EURUSD, GBPJPY, CADJPY, AUDUSD and USDCHF

Get the Forex Forecast using fundamentals, sentiment, and technical positions analyses for major pairs for the week of September 20, 2021 here.

Technical Analysis

U.S. Dollar Index

The weekly price chart below shows the U.S. Dollar Index printed a bullish candlestick last week which again rejected the zone of support which I have identified between 11899 and 11833. The price is still above the levels from 3 and 6 months ago, which shows that the long-term bullish trend in the greenback is still valid. We also have some bullish momentum evidenced by the fact that the weekly candlestick closed right at the top of its range. This suggests thattrades in the USD look better on the long rather than short side right now, so the best strategy in the Forex market over the coming week will probably be to look for long trades in US dollar currency pairs.

AUD/USD

The AUD/USD currency pair fell firmly last week, printing a bearish candlestick that closed right on its low.This currency pair is showing the highest medium-term volatilityin the Forex market right now. This was a movement in line with the long-term bearish trend, evidenced by the fact that the price is below its levels from both 3 and six months ago. As market sentiment has turned risk-off and the AUD has become a key risk barometer currency, there could be another good short trade opportunity here over the coming week. Waiting for the end of Monday’s market and then trading any breakdown from Monday’s range short could be a good approach here.

USD/CHF

The USD/CHF currency pair rose strongly over the final two days of last week, printing a bullish weekly candlestick that closed right on its high.This currency pair stood out in recent days as it broke to a new long-term high price. There could be another good short trade opportunity here over the coming week, but traders should be at least a little cautious as this currency pair does not tend to trade. Looking for long trades following shallow pullbacks on short-term price charts could be a great strategy for trading this currency pair, at least at the start of this coming week.

EURJPY

We had expected the level at 128.69 might act as support, as it had acted previously as both support and resistance. Note how these “flipping” levels can work well. The H1 chart below shows how the price rejected this level with an inside bar just before last Thursday’s New York open (typically a great time to be trading Forex currency pairs) marked by the up arrow in the price chart below. This trade has been nicely profitable, achieving a maximum positive reward to risk ratio so far of more than 3 to 1 based upon the size of the entry candlestick structure.

EUR/USD

The euro initially tried to rally last week, reaching towards the 1.1850 level before falling apart. At this point, the market has crossed below the 1.18 level and the 1.1750 level after that. In general, this is a market that I think continues to see negativity as we have closed towards the bottom of the weekly candlestick. The market is likely to go looking towards the 1.16 level. That is an area that has been massive support, so I think it has to be tested rather soon. In the short term, I think you should looking for signs of exhaustion on short-term charts to start selling.

GBPJPY

The British pound has rallied to kick off the week, only to turn around at the ¥153 level. The market has collapsed as we are starting to see a lot of negativity. The market is closing towards the bottom of the week, which does suggest that we are ready to go lower, perhaps reaching towards the ¥150 level. That is an area that I think kicks off a lot of support extending all the way down to the ¥149 level. If we were to break down below there, the market then would fall apart. In fact, you could even make an argument that we have formed a bit of a head and shoulders.

CADJPY

The Canadian dollar initially tried to rally against the Japanese yen but as you can see, we have fallen apart. The ¥85 level underneath is massive support, so if we can turn around and break down below there, the market is likely to go looking towards the ¥81 level. Rallies at this point will continue to struggle until we can get above the ¥88 level.It is worth noting that the Canadian dollar has been struggling even though the oil markets have been rather strong.

Bottom Line

I see the best opportunity in the financial markets this weekaslikely to be in swing trades in the AUD/USD currency pair, on the short side, and short-term day trades long in the USD/CHF currency pair.

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Oil’s Losing Streak, Gold Hangs On -August 20, 2021

Oil extends slide

Oil prices are plunging closer to bear market territory on fears global crude demand forecasts for the remainder of the year will see drastic reductions. Visions of the US economy being fully reopened and with kids attending school in person might have several disruptions. Too many vaccinated individuals are coming down with COVID and while hospitalizations seem unlikely, a complete return to work for the majority of the population seems less likely as many families have unvaccinated children.

A strong dollar is also weighing on crude prices but that might not last much longer given how strong Treasuries are advancing. Wall Street is interpreting the Fed’s minutes as a pivot towards hawkishness, but that was already priced in and the dollar will likely see limited upside from here.

WTI crude’s six-day losing streak seems a bit overdone but for it to stop, it might need a sign from OPEC+ that they might hold off on plans to ramp up output. The oil market is still in deficit and a breach below the USD 60 level will likely attract many long-term bullish bets. The bottom could be nearing here for crude, but energy traders will need to see some positive headlines regarding global economic growth.

Gold

Gold prices are holding up nicely given the broad risk-off tone that is hitting all commodities. If financial markets deteriorate even further, it will be interesting to see if gold can continue remaining attractive.

Gold is attracting some safe-haven flows as investors turn bearish with stocks, the delta variant continues to impact high-frequency data, and global bond yields remain heavy. The American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) weekly survey showed bulls fell to 33.2% and bears rose to 35.1%. The theme with Treasury auctions shows demand remains strong and the Treasury curve will struggle to steepen. Today’s 30-year TIPS auction was awarded at a record low yield of -0.292%.

Gold might struggle to break above the USD 1800 level in the short-term, but everything seems to be lining up perfectly for the medium and longer-term bullish outlooks.

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