Weekly #Forex Forecast –#USDJPY,#Gold,#Silver,#SP500 Index,#CAC,#USDMXN (13-17 May 2024)

Fundamental Analysis & Market Sentiment

Last week’s key takeaway was the souring of risk-on sentiment due to expectations in the USA of higher inflationary pressure over the short-term as well as US Consumer Sentiment data which came in at a six-month low. This souring did not come until the end of the week, and it is unclear how negative it is, as most assets over the entire week showed a risk-on rally.

It is unclear what sentiment will be like as the new week gets underway. It is likely that markets will be so fixated on the upcoming US CPI data release that nothing much will happen in the market before that.

The two major data releases last week were policy meetings at two central banks: the Bank of England and the Reserve Bank of Australia. Both central banks kept their interest rates unchanged, but the Bank of England vote was a little more dovish than expected. The RBA stated that inflation risk remains to the upside but that on balance they considered another rate holding to be the correct action. However, both banks effectively indicated a rate hike was out of the question.

Other important data releases were:

1. US 30-Year Bond Auction – this produced a slightly lower yield, which should be slightly bullish for risk.
2. UK GDP – this came in notably better than expected, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4% instead of the expected 0.1% increase.
3. US Unemployment Claims – this was slightly worse than expected.
4. Canadian Unemployment Rate – this was better than expected, with the unemployment rate remaining unchanged at 6.1% due t the creation of more net new jobs than was expected.

The Week Ahead: 13th – 17th May

The most important item over this coming week will be the release of US CPI (inflation) data on Wednesday. Apart from that, there are several other important releases scheduled, listed in order of likely importance:

1. US PPI
2. US Retail Sales
3. US Empire State Manufacturing Index
4. US Unemployment Claims
5. Australia Wage Price Index
6. New Zealand Inflation Expectations
7. UK Claimant Count Change
8. Australia Unemployment Rate

Monthly Forecast May 2024

Weekly Forecast 12th May 2024

Last week, I forecasted that the Japanese Yen would decline against the Euro, Pound, New Zealand Dollar, Swiss Franc, Canadian Dollar, and Australian Dollar. All of these were excellent winning trades, giving a large overall gain of 10.45%, as outlined earlier.

Directional volatility in the Forex market decreased last week, with 27% of the most important currency pairs fluctuating by more than 1% last week.

Last week, the Australian Dollar showed relative strength, and the Japanese Yen showed relative weakness.

Key Support/Resistance Levels for Popular Pairs

Technical Analysis

US Dollar Index

The US Dollar Index printed a small inside candlestick last week which closed slightly higher with a relatively large upper wick, signifying indecision. The candlestick is close to being a bearish pin bar. There is no true long-term trend here, as the price is above its level from 3 months ago but remains below its price of 6 months ago, making the US Dollar relatively unreliable to trade on a trend basis.

The weekly price chart below shows that the dollar has been swinging but has been in a consolidation pattern for quite a while, and the consolidation seems to be getting stronger and constricting.

However, it is worth noting that there is a confluence of a bearish descending trend line and a key horizontal resistance level at 105.81 which is not far from the current price. If the Us Dollar can get established above that level, it could be a significant bullish breakout. It could happen this week if the release of US CPI (inflation) data is notably higher than expected.

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY currency pair was active this week, as were all the Yen crosses. This is due to volatility remaining within the Japanese Yen after its recent massive price movements, with the volatility goosed by two suspected interventions from the Bank of Japan.

The Yen is weakening everywhere, and so of course it also weakened against the US Dollar. However, several other currencies gained even more against the Yen last week.

Technically we see the bullish momentum starting to evaporate into a consolidation below ¥156.00.

Yen weakness is quite likely to persist over the coming week. Whether this is the best pair to use to be short of the Yen is debatable. However, if the Yen does stay weak, long trades from bounces at support levels in this currency pair are likely to be good trades.

Gold

The price of Gold rose quite firmly last week, printing a bullish engulfing candlestick of good size, although Friday saw Gold give up some of its gains through a short-term topping out. The weekly price chart below shows some upper wick on the weekly candlestick. However, the price closed notably higher, and is not very far from making a record high weekly close, which was last made 4 weeks ago at $2392.

We do not yet have bullish breakout conditions, but long trades do look more likely to succeed than short ones, and there is certainly a long-term bullish trend here.

I think we could see a good point to enter a new long trade if we get either:

• A daily close above $2400, or
• A retracement to any of the support levels above $2290.

Silver

The price of Silver rose quite firmly last week, printing a bullish engulfing candlestick of good size, although Friday saw Silver give up some of its gains. The weekly price chart below shows some upper wick on the weekly candlestick. However, the price closed notably higher, and is not very far from making a record multi-year high weekly close, which was last made 4 weeks ago at $28.69.

We do not yet have bullish breakout conditions, but long trades do look more likely to succeed than short ones, and there is certainly a long-term bullish trend here.

I think we could see a good point to enter a new long trade if we get either:

• A daily close above $29, or
• A retracement to either of the support levels at $27.72 or $27.46, with $27.46 looking especially strong due to its confluence with $27.50.

S&P 500 Index

After major US equity indices dropped quite sharply 4 weeks ago after making new all-time highs, US stock markets have been rising slowly but surely, and last week saw quite good performances, especially here in the broad, benchmark S&P 500 Index. It is worth noting that this Index outperformed the NASDAQ 100 Index, which is unusual in a bear market and suggests that the tech sector currently has some vulnerability.

The weekly price chart below shows a bullish candlestick that closed quite near its high. There was some upper wick, but nothing unduly large for bulls to worry about.

There is clearly a long-term bullish trend coupled with mostly bullish short-term momentum. The issue for bulls here is likely to be that the price is near the recent record highs which could provide resistance and trigger another bearish reversal if reached.

For this reason, I will only consider entering a new long trade here if we see a new record high daily close. I prefer a daily close above 5265 which would be a new record high.

We have seen renewed risk-on sentiment in recent days, which is benefiting stocks and precious metals. Gold and silver are positively correlated with stock market performances historically.

USDMXN :

The US dollar gap lower against the Mexican peso the kickoff the trading week, only to turn around and show signs of strength and fill that gap, only to turn right back around and start selling off. Ultimately, this is a market that I think is doing everything he can to break down below the 16 pesos level, but we have a long way to go. In general, this will be an interesting pair to watch due to the fact that it is an emerging market currency that is extraordinarily important. I think this still remains a market that you are looking to fade rallies in.

CAC

The French index was very positive this week, although it’s worth noting that Friday was little bit of a letdown. The market has struggled at the previous high, but this simply means that we will probably pull back only to find more buyers. Underneath, we have the €7900 level that is likely to offer quite a bit of support. Even if we were to break down below there, I think there’s even more support near the €7600 level as the 50-Week EMA comes into the picture.

Bottom Line

I see the best trading opportunities this week as follows:

1. Long of the S&P 500 Index following a daily close above 5265.
2. Long of Gold following a daily close above $2400.
3. Long of Silver following a daily close above $29.00.

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EURUSD Premium analysis: Tomorrow’s PMI data Comment (22 NOVEMBER 2021)

Tomorrow’s PMI data are relatively positive and maybe looked through due to recent developments. No doubt any miss will be seized upon. We know the ECB is already dovish in its outlook. A continuation of the pandemic simply gives policymakers more reasons to go slow. The euro slipped 0.2% to $1.1275 at 1300 GMT, nearing a 16-month low touched on Friday when Austria announced the lockdown.

So EURUSD could be a short- and medium-term good sell call considering the current situation of a pandemic. A drop-down below the 1.1254 level could further give negative movement in pairs.

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Intraday Market Analysis – USD Pushes Higher,GBPJPY attempts to rebound and NAS 100 tests peak: 17 Nov 2021

EURUSD lacks support

The US dollar inched higher after October’s retail sales beat expectations. There has been a lack of interest in the single currency following its fall below the daily support at 1.1530.

The divergence between the 20 and 30-hour moving averages indicates an acceleration in the sell-off. The bears are targeting the demand zone around 1.1200 from last July.

The RSI’s oversold situation may prompt momentum traders to cover. Though a rebound is likely to be capped by 1.1370 and sellers would be eager to sell into strength.

GBPJPY attempts to rebound

The sterling recouped losses after Britain’s unemployment rate dropped to 4.3%. On the daily chart, the pair saw support near the 61.8% (152.60) Fibonacci retracement of the October rally.

A bullish RSI divergence was a sign that the bearish pressure was fading. A break above 153.60 could be an attempt to turn the mood around.

The initial surge may need more support after the RSI shot into the overbought area. Should the pound stay above 152.35-152.60, a rebound would lift it towards 155.20.

NAS 100 tests peak

The Nasdaq 100 bounces back supported by robust tech earnings.

The index showed exhaustion after a four-week-long bull run. A combination of an overbought RSI and its bearish divergence made traders cautious in buying into high valuations.

A break below the psychological level of 16000 has triggered a wave of profit-taking. A deeper retreat below 16020 would send the index to the previous peak at 15700 which coincides with the 30-day moving average.

On the upside, A rally above 16400 would resume the uptrend.

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November 2021 Forecast : #NASDAQ100,#EURUSD,#SP500,#Gold AND #WTI

WTI Crude Oil Forecast: November 2021

October proved to be a very bullish month for WTI Crude Oil as the 80.00 USD level was penetrated and sustained.

November’s trading ofWTI Crude Oilwill begin near the 83.00 level and speculators will have important decisions to make regarding their technical and perhaps even fundamental outlooks.Nearly one year ago, WTI Crude Oil was trading near the ‘lofty’ price of 35.00 USD. The more than doubling of value the commodity has achieved in the span of one year is no small feat.

Speculators who have been lucky enough to ride the bullish trend higher may be looking at the current heights of WTI Crude Oil and believe it has been overbought and it is time to change their demeanors. Trades may suspect the trend has been too strong and that a bearish reversal is certain to develop, which will take the commodity lower to a more ‘tranquil’ ratio which takes some luster off the upwards trajectory. On the 1st of October, WTI Crude Oil was trading near the 73.00 price and its gain of 10.00 USD per barrel is more than a ten percent move. Can the commodity sustain its momentum higher?

Contrarians who want to bet against the current heights and seek lower values may believe there is money to be made wagering on moves towards the 80.00 mark which may prove to be a catalyst of support near term.While this may prove to be the case, short sellers should also then turn their attention to long term charts of WTI Crude Oil and see if they have the stomach to withstand the trend upwards which has been rather consistent the past year.

Demand for the commodity has been strong and production questions remain rather tricky as global supply is also sighted as being rather delicate.The additional fact that U.S. producers are not about to be given a green light by the current White House administration to increase the level of drilling and ‘fracking’ should be accounted for and given some credence. While there is plenty of oil for the world to still use, the production and distribution of crude oil is facing a global test according to many reports which has also made buying rather frantic.

While the price of WTI Crude Oil may look overbought to many speculators, the actual value of the commodity doesn’t care about personal feelings of retail traders. The value of WTI Crude Oil may continue to find that demand remains strong and that the potential of reversals lower are limited. Support near the 80.00 mark looks to be intriguing and if the commodity continues to demonstrate ability to stay above this level, the price of 85.00 should be watched carefully. If this slightly higher mark is penetrated and the 86.00 and 87.00 ratios begin to see a challenge, the notion that 90.00 per barrel for WTI Crude Oil could happen is not out of the question.

Coronavirus is still often heard on the lips of many in the media as they speak about economic implications, but the past year of trading shows that demand for WTI Crude Oil is continuing to grow and is needed for a wide array of use. Traders may want to venture a look at very long-term charts. Yes, WTI is at values not seen since 2014, but the price of the commodity has traversed these heights before and wagering on reversals lower simply because the value looks high may prove to be a costly mistake.

WTI Crude Oil Outlook for November

Speculative price range for WTI Crude Oil is 73.00 to 96.00 USD.

If support for WTI Crude Oil falters near the 80.00 mark it could spur on some additional selling which could see a test of the 77.00 to 75.00 marks if the commodity faces a speculative wave of short positions. Strong support for WTI looks to be near the 73.00 and if this is punctured lower towards 70.00 it would be rather surprising in November.

If WTI Crude Oil is able to withstand its current heights and sees sustained buying near 82.00 and 83.00 USD per barrel, traders may believe the 85.00 target could become a quick focus. If October highs are surpassed and the 86.00 and 87.00 levels remains stable when challenged, a move higher to the 90.00 USD juncture is not out of the question for WTI Crude Oil.

Gold Forecast: November 2021

Gold will enter November having produced some upwards momentum in the month of October, but pursing the trend of the precious metal has not been without trouble.

Goldwill enter the month of November within sight of the 1800.00 mark, but after providing bullish speculators with upwards momentum during October, the final day of trading in the month provided a reminder that pursuing its trend remains challenging. Gold closed out the final day of October with a rather steep loss, and when November begins, sentiment will likely remain rather cautious regarding the outlook for the precious metal.

Goldis a darling for many long term investors who buy the precious metal and hold the commodity as a safe haven against the problems of inflation.However, the short-term price is quite speculative and it moves with a great deal of volatility which speculators crave, but also need to protect their positions against. The precious metal started October near lows and on the 6th touched the 1745.00 level.

The past year of trading has actually been difficult for bullish gold traders.While the commodity has certainly provided opportunities to buy at what can be defined as oversold conditions technically, gold has not been able to break free of resistance and seems to be consistently pushed back when it approaches the 1825.00 vicinity. In July of this year, gold achieved a high of nearly 1835.00, which it again challenged in early September. Since the beginning of September, gold has been choppy in many respects, and a low of nearly 1719.00 was seen on the 29th of the month.

A high of nearly 1813.00 was produced for gold on the 22ndof October, but resistance once again caused headwinds.A low of nearly 1780.00 was seen only a few trading days after this high, but the precious metal did manage to gain this past week in a relatively calm manner. But as October’s trading came to an end and after a short-term high of about 1806.00 was seen on the 28th, a rather strong reversal lower left gold near 1782.00 as the month concluded. Having recently traded above 1800.00 and only ‘suffered a slight’ downturn, bullish speculators may want to use the selloff to look for yet another reversal higher near term.

Gold Outlook for November

Speculative price range for gold is 1735.00 to 1856.00.

Gold has certainly seen a slight incremental upwards move the past month, but it has not been able to build a significant amount of confidence with bullish speculators.Many traders will want to see a sustained amount of value above the 1810.00 juncture and the 1825.00 mark to be surpassed before they are willing to proclaim a bull market may be underway. If support levels continue to be challenged with reversals lower the precious metal could remain a speculative haunting. The 1770.00 level needs to be sustained for gold, because if it is broken again near term the precious metal could quickly see moves lower which could bring the 1759.00 ratio into sight which was tested on the 17th of October. If gold were to stumble below this mark, the 1748.00 level looks like a place where durable support could prove adequate and spring a rallying cry from traders who may believe the commodity has been oversold.

However, if gold is able to maintain a price above 1780.00 as November opens, it could deliver some confidence to speculative bulls.Gold has the capability of moving fast, and if the 1790.00 mark is challenged near term, traders may again aim for 1800.00. While this level may be viewed as a psychological juncture by many, the 1800.00 level has proven to be a mere caution sign for traders and when surpassed in recent trading it has not been able to be sustained. Gold will have to move above 1800.00 and prove it can sustain its price above for a solid amount of time before traders proclaim the choppy conditions within the commodity are over. While long-term traders may feel confident about gold for good reason, short- and mid-term traders should understand the commodity can exhibit choppy results.

EUR/USD Forecast: November 2021

Keep in mind that this pair does tend to be very choppy, so unless some type of change in attitude occurs globally, it will probably continue to be more noisy.

The euro was rather negative during most of the month of October, threatening the 1.15 handle. At this point, it will be interesting to see how this plays out, and I think the most important thing that this chart can offer is an idea as to what is going on with the US dollar overall. After all, the majority of the US Dollar Index is greatly influenced by the EUR/USD pair, so if for no other reason than to get an idea as to what the greenback might do this month, you need to be paying attention to this chart.

Having said all of that, if we do break down below the 1.15 handle, it is very likely that the euro will fall apart. At that point, I would anticipate that the euro could go looking towards the 1.14 handle, and then possibly the 1.12 level. This is a market that has recently broken through the 200-week EMA, bounced enough to test it again, and then got hammered as we closed out the month. The question now is whether or not we can continue to break down. I do think that the 1.15 level underneath is going to continue to offer support, and I think that if we break down below the 1.15 level on the daily candlestick, then we could see this market really break down. That would accelerate euro selling, and at that point in time I would probably be short of the euro against multiple currencies.

If we turn around and break above the top of the weekly candlestick that closed out the month of October, then it is likely that we could go looking towards 1.18 level. That is an area where you see the 50-week EMA hanging about, and that could offer a little bit of resistance. That is probably the high-end possibility for the month of November, just as 1.14 is probably the low-end. Keep an eye on the range of the last couple of candlesticks, because a breakout of that range should signify where we go next and give us an idea as to where the next hundred or so pips come from. Keep in mind that this pair does tend to be very choppy, so unless some type of change in attitude occurs globally, it will probably continue to be more noisy.

NASDAQ 100 Forecast: November 2021

The fact that the weekly candlestick closed at the absolute highs to close out the month does suggest that momentum is going to continue to throw this market higher.

The NASDAQ 100has had a very strong month of October, and it is very likely to continue seeing upward pressure for the month of November. We are closing out the month at the all-time highs, after pulling back during the month of September. The 15,000 level has offered a significant amount of support, and now could be thought of as a bit of a “floor in the market.” Looking at this chart, the market continues to see plenty of “value” in this market, especially as interest rates in the United States are still struggling to keep up with inflation.

It is all the usual suspects that will drive this market higher, such as Amazon, Facebook, and the like. At this point in time, the market is likely to see plenty of buyers jumping in every time they get an opportunity, and the 16,000 level is going to be a bit of a short-term target. If we can break above there, then the market is likely to continue going much higher. Underneath, the hammer from the first week of October would be a signal that we are ready to break lower if we get below it. At that point, the 14,000 level is where the 50-week EMA comes into the picture and could drive the trend going forward. The 50-week EMA tends to be very reliable, so special attention needs to be paid attention to it.

As we are going through earnings season, we continue to get strong earnings, despite the fact that the occasional miss has occurred with technology stocks. Nonetheless, the appetite for stocks continues to be very strong, and the NASDAQ 100 tends to offer more alpha than other indices in the United States. By the end of the month, I anticipate that we will be well above the 16,000 level, with it offering a significant amount of support. As far as shorting is concerned, I have no interest in doing so, but if we were to break down below that first candlestick of the month of October, I might be a buyer of puts, but that is as negative as this market can be played at this point. Ultimately, this is a market that continues to drag other indices in the United States right along with it. The fact that the weekly candlestick closed at the absolute highs to close out the month does suggest that momentum is going to continue to throw this market higher.

S&P 500 Forecast: November 2021

At this juncture, any short-term dips will be bought into, and it is very likely that we would see the 4700 level attempted by the time we get to the end of the month.

TheS&P 500had a very strong month in October, bouncing from a major uptrend line. This is a very bullish sign, especially as the first candlestick of the month was a hammer. It was preceded by another hammer, and the fact that we had everything line up at the same time to go higher is a good look. The market closed out the month of October threatening the 4600 level, but at the end of the day this is just another large, round, psychologically significant figure that will be blown past. Because of this, the market is likely to see that as only a temporary barrier, but one that eventually ends up in the rearview mirror.

Underneath, the 4400 level should offer significant support, especially as the uptrend line sits right there as well. Ultimately, we also have the 50-week EMA sitting just below the 4200 level. I think ultimately if we were to break below the 4200 level, then I might be a buyer of puts, but that is about as negative as I would get. After all, the S&P 500 is a way to play growth, and as we are going through earnings season, it does make sense that there will be a little bit of a “relief rally” as earnings have not been bad.

Economic numbers have been relatively decent, and earnings have fallen right in line. The S&P 500 continues to outperform what you can get in the bond market, as yields are still not keeping up with inflation. The US dollar has been falling, and that should also help the idea of the S&P 500 going higher as it makes exports cheaper. Nonetheless, the momentum is to the upside,and that is not changing anytime soon. At this juncture, any short-term dips will be bought into, and it is very likely that we would see the 4700 level attempted by the time we get to the end of the month.The fourth quarter tends to be rather strong as hedge fund managers try to make up a lackluster performance for the year yet again, buying all of the big name stocks that make up a majority of the driving factor for the S&P 500 to go higher. Remember, the indices in the United States are not equally weighted, so just a handful of stocks get everything moving.

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Intraday Market Analysis – #Gold Seeks Support,#USDCAD pierces through supports and #USOIL retraces after overextension (28 October 2021)

XAUUSD consolidates gains

Gold treads water as markets await a slew of central bank decisions in the coming days.

The recent break above the daily resistance at 1805 is a prerequisite for a bullish turnaround. However, the rally has met stiff selling pressure at the supply zone around 1813 which is at the origin of the September sell-off.

Along with a repeatedly overbought RSI, a combination of profit-taking and fresh selling may weigh on the precious metal in the short term. 1777 is the immediate support and its breach would send the price to 1760.

USDCAD pierces through supports

The Canadian dollar surged after the Bank of Canada ended its QE.

As the RSI from the daily chart showed an oversold situation, the greenback had attracted bargain hunters at its four-month low around 1.2300. However, it has given up all recent gains as it revisits the bottom.

1.2430 is now fresh resistance and the downtrend may resume. 1.2200 would be the next target as those who have been waiting for a catalyst join in. An oversold RSI has caused a temporary rebound which is likely to meet strong selling interest.

USOIL retraces after overextension

WTI crude tumbled after an unexpected surge in US inventories. Medium-term sentiment remains bullish, though an overbought RSI on the daily chart may prompt buyers to proceed with caution.

A fall below 82.50 and then 81.00 has exacerbated profit-takings as late buyers rushed for the exit. 79.50 is the next support.

A bearish breakout would extend the correction to 77.00 which was previously a resistance, making it an area of interest. An oversold RSI may trigger a rebound with 82.30 as a fresh resistance.

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Intraday Market Analysis – USD Consolidates Gains,XAGUSD to test critical ceiling and SPX 500 tests all-time high(22 October 2021)

USDJPY seeks support

The US dollar steadies over lower-than-expected initial jobless claims.

Sentiment remains upbeat, however, the pair is struggling to climb past the psychological level of 115.00, probably due to overextension. The RSI’s double top in the overbought area and bearish divergence suggests that the rally could be losing steam.

A breach below 113.90 would prompt weaker hands to exit, leading to a pullback towards 113.00. A rebound past the said resistance would send the price to March 2017’s high of 115.40.

XAGUSD to test critical ceiling

Silver stalls as the greenback reclaims some lost ground. The break above the round number of 24.00 indicates strong commitment from the buy-side.

The bulls are looking at the major resistance at 24.80 from the daily timeframe, as a breakout would end a five-month-long correction and pave the way for a bullish reversal.

However, an overbought RSI coupled with a bearish divergence suggests possible exhaustion in the run-up. 23.60 would be the first level to watch for if the price pulls lower in search of support.

SPX 500 tests all-time high

The S&P 500 flies high supported by better-than-expected third-quarter earnings. The index has reached the previous all-time high at 4550.

A breakout may trigger a runaway rally. Nonetheless, a repeatedly overbought RSI may cause a limited pullback as buyers take profit.

A drop below the immediate support at 4515 would pull the trigger. 4445 would be next as it coincides with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the October rally. The bulls are likely to buy the dips though after sentiment turns optimistic.

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Most important trading news of CAD,GBP,USD,EUR between 18 and 24 October 2021 with notable economic data releases

Consumer Price Index, UK

WHEN: WHAT IT INFLUENCES:

20 October 2021 GBP and its subsequent pairs

WHAT’S HAPPENING:

The Consumer Price Index released by the National Statistics is a measure of price movements by the comparison between the retail prices of a representative shopping basket of goods and services. The purchasing power of the GBP is dragged down by inflation. The CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. Generally, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the GBP, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

Bank of Canada Consumer Price Index Core

WHEN: WHAT IT INFLUENCES:

20 October 2021 CAD and its subsequent pairs

WHAT’S HAPPENING:

The Bank of Canada releases the Consumer Price Index Core. ‘Core’ CPI excludes fruits, vegetables, gasoline, fuel oil, natural gas, mortgage interest, intercity transportation, and tobacco products. Generally speaking, a high reading anticipates a hawkish attitude by the BoC, and it is positive (or bullish) for the CAD.

Initial Jobless Claims, USA

WHEN: WHAT IT INFLUENCES:

21 October 2021 USD and its subsequent pairs

WHAT’S HAPPENING:

The Initial Jobless Claims released by the U.S. Department of Labor is a measure of the number of people filing first-time claims for state unemployment insurance. In other words, it provides a measure of strength in the labour market. A larger than expected number indicates weakness in this market which influences the strength and direction of the U.S. economy. If jobless claims fall, it is seen as positive or bullish for the USD.

Market Manufacturing PMI, Germany

WHEN: WHAT IT INFLUENCES:

22 October 2021 EUR and its subsequent pairs

WHAT’S HAPPENING:

The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) released by Markit economics, captures business conditions in the manufacturing sector. As the manufacturing sector dominates a large part of the total GDP, the manufacturing PMI is an important indicator of business conditions and Germany’s overall economic condition. Typically, a result above 50 signals is bullish for the EUR, whereas a result below 50 is seen as bearish.

Market PMI Composite, Germany

WHEN: WHAT IT INFLUENCES:

22 October 2021 EUR and its subsequent pairs

WHAT’S HAPPENING:

The PMI monthly Composite Reports on Manufacturing and Services released by Markit Economics are based on business executives in private sector manufacturing companies and private sector services companies. The result is a percentage of respondents reporting an improvement, deterioration, or no change since the previous month. From these percentages, an index is derived: a level of 50.0 signals no change from the last month, a level above 50.0 calls an increase (improvement), a level below 50.0 signals a decrease (contraction).

Market Services PMI, UK

WHEN: WHAT IT INFLUENCES:

22 October 2021 GBP and its subsequent pairs

WHAT’S HAPPENING:

The PMI service released by both the Chartered Institute of Purchasing & Supply and the Markit Economics is an indicator of the economic situation in the U.K. services sector. It captures an overview of sales and employment conditions. The U.K. service sector does not influence, either positively or negatively, the GDP as much as the Manufacturing PMI does. Traders want the highest possible reading, which is seen as a positive for the GBP. Any reading above 50 signals expansion, while a reading under 50 shows contraction.

Notable economic data releases are as follows:

Monday

• New Zealand: CPI (Q3)
• China: GDP Growth Rate (Q3)
• China: Industrial Production (SEP)
• China: Retail Sales (SEP)
• China: Unemployment Rate (SEP)
• Canada: Housing Starts (SEP)
• US: Industrial Production (SEP)
• US: Manufacturing Production (SEP)
• US: NAHB Housing Market Index (OCT)
• Canada: Business Outlook Survey Indicator (Q3)

Tuesday

• Australia: RBA Meeting Minutes
• US: Housing Starts (SEP)
• US: Building Permits(SEP)

Wednesday

• Japan: Trade Balance (SEP)
• China: House Price Index (SEP)
• Germany: PPI (SEP)
• UK: Inflation Data (SEP)
• Eurozone: Inflation Rate Final (SEP)
• Canada: Inflation Rate (SEP)
• US:Crude Inventories

Thursday

• UK: CBI Business Optimism Index (Q4)
• UK: CBI Industrial Trends Orders (OCT)
• Canada: New Housing Price Index (SEP)
• US: Philly Fed Manufacturing Index (OCT)
• EU: Consumer Confidence Flash (OCT)
• US: Existing Home Sales (SEP)

Friday

• Global: Manufacturing and Services PMI Flashes (OCT)
• Japan: Inflation Rate (SEP)
• UK: Retail Sales (SEP)
• Canada: Retail Sales (AUG)
• Canada: Manufacturing Sales Prel (SEP)

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