Hello fellow traders. In this technical blog we’re going to take a quick look at the Elliott Wave charts of AUDJPY Forex pair, published in members area of the website. As our members know we have been favoring the long side in YEN pairs. Recently we got a pull back that has made a clear 3 waves pull back that found buyers right at the equal legs area. In the further text we are going to explain the Elliott Wave forecast
AUDJPY H1 Weekend Update 04.13.2024
AUDJPY ended cycle from the 96.8676 low and now correcting it. Current view suggests wave 4 red pull back can be unfolding as Elliott Wave Zig Zag Pattern. The Equal legs area is already reached at 98.799-98.460. We are aware that pull back can complete any moment. We don’t recommend selling the pair and expect further rally to resume from the buyers zone : 98.799-98.460.
AUDJPY H1 Weekend Update 04.15.2024
AUDJPY has given us a nice reaction from the Equal Legs zone as expected. The bounce reached and exceeded 50% Fibonacci retracement against the ((b)) high, so we consider wave 4 red completed at the 98.7 low. We anticipate a break of the 3 red peak to confirm that the next leg up is in progress. Alternatively, if the price breaks below the 98.7 low, the pair will open up the possibility for a 7-swing pattern toward 97.963-97.476 area. In that case, any long positions will be stopped out at Break Even, and we will look to buy the dips again at the next set of equal legs.
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AUDUSD Forecast: Risk Appetite Is Aussie Dollar’s Charge for New Highs
Technical Forecast for Australian Dollar: Bullish
AUDUSD Rebound Solid but Shy of Two-Month Range Top
With risk appetite under bullish power this past week – though the participation in that rally was uneven across different assets – the Australian Dollar was in a good position to take advantage of the tail wind. The currency gained across most of its major crosses with AUDUSD making something significant out of a hold at the very end of the past week of the post-Pandemic recovery trendline support and 50-day moving average coming in around 0.7600/7560. The technical reversal was remarkable and it gives serious weight to support, but the momentum was not exactly definitive through the end of this past week. If the pair does not overtake 0.7800 in the coming week, there will be pressure on AUDUSD traders to see it further establish its range.
CHART OF AUDUSD WITH 50-DAY MOVING AVERAGE (DAILY)
Taking a bigger picture view of AUDUSD, we can get a better sense of both the technical boundaries at play and the momentum this pair has charged. On the former point, the 0.7800/7820 high established around the beginning of 2021 doesn’t hold a lot of weight itself. On a higher time frame, the heavier technical levels to the upside are the midpoint of the pairs historical range (2001-2011) at 0.7930 followed by the range high around 0.8135 established over 2015 to 2018. As for momentum on this pair, spot relative to the one-year trailing moving average (50-week disparity index), this has been the most ambitious bullish drive over the medium term since the peak back in 2011.
CHART OF AUDUSD WITH 50-WEEK MOVING AVERAGE AND ‘DISPARITY INDEX’ (WEEKLY)
At the opposite end of the risk spectrum, AUDNZD is far more numb to any changes in speculative appetite – as it is made up of two so-called carry currencies. This past week’s rally was the heartiest since the beginning of November, but it is a quick rush into the next congestion boundary. There is some technical weight up around 1.0800, but nothing that could stop a committed market. That said, this pair seems to live by a virtue of short-lived but aggressive phases.
CHART OF AUDNZD WITH 20-DAY MOVING AVERAGE (DAILY)
Euro Technical Forecast: EUR/USD, EUR/JPY Bulls to Push Onward
The Euro traded broadly mixed this past week. Euro strength was seen relative to its US Dollar and Yen peers, but the bloc currency weakened against the Pound, Canadian Dollar, and Australian Dollar. A fresh breath of air to the reflation trade theme appears largely responsible for the latest moves across EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, EUR/GBP, EUR/CAD, and EUR/AUD. This broader trend looks likely to continue so long as market sentiment stays sanguine.
EUR/USD PRICE CHART: DAILY TIME FRAME (30 SEP 2020 TO 12 FEB 2021)
EUR/USD bulls defended the 1.2000-price level following a healthy 400-pip pullback by the Euro from its year-to-date swing high. On balance, the consolidation by EUR/USD price action leaves it coiled between the 50-day and 100-day simple moving averages. These technical barriers may keep EUR/USD relatively contained.
If the Euro can overcome its short-term bearish trend extending through the recent string of lower highs, however, the 1.2300-handle could come back into focus. That said, one-week risk reversals for EUR/USD have flipped positive again. Seeing that a risk reversal reading above zero indicates call option implied volatility is greater than put option implied volatility, this suggests FX options traders view EUR/USD price risk as being skewed to the upside.
EUR/JPY PRICE CHART: WEEKLY TIME FRAME (28 JAN 2019 TO 12 FEB 2021)
EUR/JPY gained a modest 37-pips over the last five trading sessions. This pushed the Euro to its strongest level against the Yen since February 2019 on a weekly closing basis. Although, the current 127.00-price level, underpinned by 2019 and 2020 yearly highs, has presented a formidable obstacle for EUR/JPY. Another defensive act by Euro bears might push EUR/JPY price action back toward the 126.00-mark.
Potential Euro weakness may prove short-lived, however, as it looks likely for the broader bullish trend to prevail. This is highlighted by upward pressure building alongside the series of higher lows notched by since last May. To that end, if EUR/JPY bulls can take out its year-to-date high, it could open up the door to the 128.00-handle and upper Bollinger Band.
USD/JPY:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
Since January snapped a four-month bearish phase in the shape of a bullish engulfing candle, buyers have since struggled to find acceptance at higher levels. Consequent to this, February currently trades off best levels.
Resistance can be seen in the form of a descending line (not considered traditional trendline resistance), etched from the high 118.66, whereas follow-through weakness shifts focus to support at 101.70.
Daily timeframe:
Technical structure to be mindful of this week is the 200-day simple moving average at 105.54 and supply coming in from 106.33/105.78. While lower on the curve, trendline resistance-turned support, pencilled in from the high 111.71, could make a show. Demand at 103.56/103.93 is also seen close by.
The RSI indicator ended the week engaging with 57.00 support (previous resistance).
H4 timeframe:
The 38.2% Fib level taken from 104.50—a level representing the initial take-profit objective from the alternate AB=CD resistance at 105.63 (the 127.2% Fib extension)—provided a platform for buyers to work with last week.
Friday, however, witnessed supply at 105.26/105.14 make an entrance, a clear-cut drop-base-drop formation that boasts healthy downside momentum from its base. Technically speaking, a break of the aforesaid supply this week could swing the pendulum in favour of retesting AB=CD resistance, whereas a punch lower could draw in not only the 38.2% Fib, but also trendline support (102.59).
H1 timeframe:
In addition to supply underlined above on the H4 scale at 105.26/105.14, H1 resistance made up between 105.14, 105.08 (50.0% retracement) and the 105 figure stepped forward during the early hours of London on Friday.
Sellers making a show from 105.14/105.00 underlines demand at 104.78/104.89, with a breach underscoring 104.50 support. This demand is considered reasonably important, given it was here a decision was made to break above 105 resistance.
The RSI indicator shows the value finished the week within shouting distance of 50.00, following moves out of overbought space.
Observed levels:
Long term:
The lack of buying following the monthly timeframe’s bullish engulfing candle, together with room to push south on the daily timeframe to demand at 103.56/103.93, places sellers at the wheel this week, technically speaking.
Short term:
In line with the higher timeframe picture, H4 supply at 105.26/105.14 could interest sellers this week. A H1 close under demand at 104.78/104.89, therefore, could fuel a short-term bearish theme to 104.50 support.
GBP/USD:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
Following December’s 2.5 percent advance—a movement that stirred major trendline resistance (2.1161)—February has so far refreshed multi-month highs at 1.3866.
In terms of trend structure, however, the primary trend has faced lower since early 2008, unbroken (as of current price) until 1.4376 gives way—April high, 2018. In effect, the aforesaid high represents the next upside objective on the monthly chart.
Daily timeframe:
Partly modified from previous analysis –
In the shape of a bullish outside reversal, Friday witnessed buyers strengthen their grip north of support at 1.3755, following two back-to-back shooting star candle patterns—structure generally interpreted as a bearish signal. Bouncing higher this week throws light on supply at 1.3996/1.3918.
The RSI indicator remains to circle the upper edge of a 3-month range between support around 47.00 and resistance at the 66.00 regions (the value stands at 65.49). It is common to see higher oversold support areas form in an uptrend.
H4 timeframe:
Demand at 1.3761/1.3789 welcomed price action on Friday, a movement which motivated a bullish wave back to resistance at 1.3852, a previous Quasimodo support. Rupturing the aforementioned level this week shines the headlights on supply at 1.3942/1.3900 (glued to the lower side of daily supply at 1.3996/1.3918).
H1 timeframe:
Reinforcing H4 resistance at 1.3852, we have a modest H1 Fib cluster (resistance) around 1.3850 (made up of a 161.8% Fib projection at 1.3850 and a 100% Fib extension at 1.3855), joined together with RSI trendline resistance making a show just ahead of overbought terrain.
Downside targets fall in around the 100-period simple moving average at 1.3810 and the 1.38 figure; a nudge through 1.3845, however, could see price bump heads with the 1.39 figure.
Observed levels:
Long term:
Along with daily buyers making a stand on Friday and highlighting supply at 1.3996/1.3918 as a possible upside target, the monthly price remains optimistic above trendline resistance.
Short term:
Daily price exhibiting scope to advance this week places a question mark on H4 resistance at 1.3852 and, by extension, the H1 Fib cluster around 1.3850. This could prompt a bullish breakout scenario north of 1.3850 this week, targeting 1.39 on the H1 (aligns with the underside of H4 supply at 1.3942/1.3900, which itself is glued to the lower side of daily supply at 1.3996/1.3918).
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GBPJPY Retreats from the Upper Trendline of the Ascending Broadening Wedge Pattern, Sell Signal
Trade information
Take profit: 141.760 Stop loss: 144.002
GBPJPY has been trading within the Ascending Broadening Wedge Pattern since 31st December. Recently the prices witnessed a pullback from the upper trendline of the pattern in a four hour time frame. Moreover, the prices have registered a breakdown from the descending triangle pattern while retreating from the upper line. In addition to this, the downside movement in the pair is supported by the Parabolic SAR indicator, as its dots are trading above the prices. Thus, traders can enter a short position with the target profit kept at 141.760 level, equal to the depth of the pattern. On the flip side, the stop loss can be set at 144.002 level.
XAUUSD Sustains Breakdown from the Descending Triangle Pattern, Sell Opportunity
Trade information
Take profit: 1788.74 Stop-loss: 1842.49
XAUUSD had been trading within the Descending Triangle Pattern since 18th January. The prices had pierced the lower trendline of the pattern with good bearish momentum. After the breakdown, the pair has sustained its downward move in a four-hour time frame. Further, the dots of the Parabolic SAR indicator are moving above the prices, supporting the bearishness in the pair. Additionally, the formation of three black crows candlestick pattern supports the downside movement in the pair. Thus, traders can grab the selling opportunity and keep the target profit at the 1788.74 level which is equal to the depth of the pattern. Simultaneously, the stop loss can be set at the 1842.49 level.
XAGUSD Sustain Breakdown from the Head and Shoulders Pattern, Sell Opportunity
Trade information
1st Take profit: 25.802 2nd Take profit: 23.471 Stop loss: 27.144
XAGUSD had been trading in the Head and Shoulders pattern since 28th January. Recently, prices have pierced the neckline and have sustained below the pattern in a one-hour time frame. In addition to this, the bearishness in the pair is supported by the Alligator indicator as fast line (green line) is trading below its slower lines (red and blue lines).Thus, the pair is likely to extend its southward journey and traders can grab the sell opportunity with the first profit target set at 25.802 level, which is equal to the height of the right shoulder. If the prices manage to sustain below the first profit target, the pair could extend its downward journey towards the second profit target of 23.471 level, which is equal to the height of the head. Simultaneously, the stop loss can be set at a 27.144 level, above the tip of the Right Shoulder.
USDJPY Sustains Breakout from the Ascending Triangle Pattern, Buy Opportunity
Trade information
Take profit : 105.312 Stop loss : 105.052
USDJPY had formed the Ascending Triangle pattern since 2nd February, 2020. Recently, the prices started its northward journey after forming Bullish Engulfing candlestick pattern, which indicates of potential upside movement in the pair. After this, the prices managed to register a breakout from the upper trend line and have sustained above the pattern in a one-hour time frame. In addition to this, bullishness in the pair is supported by the Parabolic SAR indicator as the dots are forming below hourly closing price. Thus, traders can enter a long position at current level, with target profit kept at 105.312 level. On the flip side, the stop loss can be set at 105.052 level, kept near the recent support
EURUSD Sustains Breakdown from the Descending Triangle Pattern, Calls for Sell
Trade Information
Take Profit: 1.1890 Stop Loss: 1.2055
EURUSD had been trading within the Descending triangle pattern since the mid of January. Recently, the prices pierced the lower trendline of the pattern with good bearish momentum. It can be noticed that after registering breakdown, the pair edge slightly higher but has managed to sustain below the pattern in a 4-hour timeframe that strengthens the bearish view on the pair. In addition to this, the fast (green) line of the Alligator indicator is moving below the slower (red and blue) lines, which depicts the bearishness in the currency pair. Therefore, keeping the above mentioned technical evidence in view, traders can grab the selling opportunity with the target profit set at 1.1890 level. Simultaneously, the stop loss for this trade is kept at 1.2055 level
EURAUD Sustains Breakdown from the Descending Triangle Pattern, Calls For Sell
Trade Information:
Target Profit: 1.5670 Stop Loss: 1.5770
EURAUD had been forming the Descending Triangle Pattern since 28th Jan. In the previous session, the pair registered a breakdown from the lower trendline of the pattern. However, the pair edged higher after the breakout, but faced resistance from the support turned resistance trendline of the pattern. In addition to this, the downside journey in the pair is supported by the dots of the Parabolic SAR indicator which are moving above the prices. Thus, traders can grab the sell opportunity in the pair, with target profit placed at 1.5670. Simultaneously, the stop loss can be set at 1.5770 level.
GBPUSD Sustains Breakdown from the Rising Wedge Pattern, Sell Opportunity
Trade Information
Target Profit: 1.3370 Stop Loss: 1.3708
GBPUSD had been trading within the Rising Wedge pattern since the mid of October 2020. The prices pierced the lower trendline of the pattern and have sustained the downward movement in a daily time frame. In addition to this, downside momentum in the pair is underpinned by Parabolic SAR Indicator, as its dots are moving above the prices. Therefore, the pair is likely to extend its downward journey in the coming sessions and traders can grab the sell opportunity with the target profit kept at 1.3370 level, equal to the depth of the pattern. Simultaneously, the stop loss for the trade is kept at 1.3708 level.
AUDJPY Rebounds from the Lower Trendline of the Ascending Broadening Wedge Pattern, Buy Opportunity
Trade Information
Target Profit : 82.95 Stop Loss : 79.51
AUDJPY has been trading within the Ascending Broadening Wedge pattern since the mid of November 2020. The prices have rebounded after taking support from the lower trendline of the pattern in a daily time frame. In addition to this, upside momentum in the pair is underpinned by Parabolic SAR Indicator, as its dots have moved below the prices. Therefore, the pair is likely to extend its upward journey in the coming sessions and traders can grab the buy opportunity with the target profit kept at 82.95 level. Simultaneously, the stop loss for the trade is kept at 79.51 level.
GOLD: BULLS TAKE THE FRONT SEAT AMID OPTIMISM SURROUNDING US FISCAL STIMULUS
After witnessing a plunge of more than 1% yesterday, the bullion trades higher in the Asian trading hours on Wednesday on the back of rising US fiscal stimulus hopes. The US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen pushed for the implementation of Joe Biden’s coronavirus rescue package on Tuesday. Further, the Democrats took their first step through Senate voting to advance $1.9 trillion package without Republicans’ support in the White House.
As of now, gold is trading at the level of $1840.98 per ounce, with a gain of 0.18%.
Talking about the previous trading session, the yellow metal encountered a sell-off as the greenback tested its multi-week high level. Further, the risk-on mood amongst the equiy investors weighed over the bullion. Besides, the headlines related to the administration of more than 100-million Covid-19 vaccines worldwide also faded the safe-haven appeal of gold. Consequently, the precious metal tumbled by 1.21% to the level of $1837.60 an ounce.
Going forward, the US would unveil its ADP Non-farm Employment Change, Final Services and ISM Services PMI data which would decide the future trajectory of gold prices.
Get live support with our Experienced research team for #forex #XAUUSD pairs signals.
#AUDJPY buy at 80.09 TP: 80.40 SL: 79.89 #AUDCHF buy at 0.6830 TP: 0.6870 SL: 0.6810 #AUDCHFAUDCHFbuy 105.00 TP: 105.40 SL: 104.700 #CHFJPY sell at 117.08 TP: 116.70 SL:117.30
#XAUUSD ANALYSIS: #XAUUSD, Below the 1850 support, retreat movement up to the level of 1825 and then 1800 may occur. Above, if the resistance of 1870 is broken, it may rise up to the level of 1890 and then 1911.
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AUDCHF REBOUNDS FROM THE LOWER TRENDLINE OF THE ASCENDING WEDGE PATTERN, CALLS FOR BUY
Trade Information
Take Profit: 0.6950 Stop Loss: 0.6750
AUDCHF has been trading within the Ascending Wedge Pattern since 14th October by forming higher highs and higher lows. The currency pair recently rebounded with a good bullish momentum from the lower trendline of the pattern and is now attempting to move upwards in a daily timeframe. In addition to this, the lower band of the bollinger band indicator is acting as a major support, thus cushioning the downside in the pair. At this juncture, the traders can grab the buy opportunity in the pair as it likely to move towards the target profit kept at 0.6950 level. Simultaneously, the stop loss is kept at 0.6750 level.
GBPCHF REGISTERS BREAKOUT FROM THE ASCENDING TRIANGLE PATTERN, BUY OPPORTUNITY
Trade information
Take profit: 1.3118 Stop loss: 1.1975
GBPCHF had formed the Ascending Triangle pattern since 15th March, 2020, creating higher lows with upside capped at 1.2195 level. Recently, the prices registered a breakout from the upper trend line in a weekly time frame. In addition to this, bullishness in the pair is supported by the Alligator indicator as fast line (green line) is trading above its slower lines (red and blue lines).Thus, traders can enter a long position at current level, with target profit kept at 1.3118 level. On the flip side, the stop loss can be set at 1.1975 level which happens to be the recent support.
AUDCAD REBOUNDS FROM THE LOWER TRENDLINE OF THE RIGHT ANGLED DESCENDING BROADENING WEDGE PATTERN, BUY OPPORTUNITY
Trade information
Take profit: 0.98470 Stop loss: 0.97441
AUDCAD has been trading within the Right Angled Descending Broadening Wedge pattern since 26th January. Recently, the prices have rebounded from the lower trendline of the pattern in a four hour time frame. Furthermore, the northward journey in the pair is supported by the bullish crossover in Stochastic Indicator as the %K (blue) line has moved above the signal (red) line. Therefore, prices are likely to extend their upward journey in the coming hours and traders can grab the buy opportunity with the target profit kept at 0.98470 level. Simultaneously, the stop loss for the trade is kept at 0.97441 level.
CHFJPY SUSTAINS BREAKDOWN FROM THE ASCENDING BROADENING WEDGE PATTERN, SELL OPPORTUNITY
Trade Information
Target Profit: 116.88 Stop Loss: 117.52
CHFJPY had been trading within the Ascending Broadening Wedge pattern since the last week. The prices have pierced the lower trendline of the pattern by forming a threeblack crows candlestick pattern and have sustained the downward movement in an hourly time frame. In addition to this, downside move in the pair is underpinned by Parabolic SAR Indicator, as its dots are moving above the prices. Therefore, the pair is likely to extend its downward journey in the coming sessions and traders can grab the sell opportunity with the target profit kept at 116.88 level, equal to the depth of the pattern. Simultaneously, the stop loss for the trade is kept at 117.52 level.
GBPJPY SUSTAINS BREAKOUT FROM THE SYMMETRICAL TRIANGLE PATTERN, BUY OPPORTUNITY
Trade Information
Target Profit: 159.186 Stop Loss: 139.423
GBPJPY had been trading inside the symmetrical triangle pattern since 16th Feb. 2020, forming higher lows and lower highs. Recently, the currency pair has managed to breach the upper trendline of the pattern and sustain an upward move. Further, dots of the Parabolic SAR are trading below the daily closing which underpins the bullishness in the pair. Therefore, investors can buy at current levels and set the target profit at 159.186 level. The stop loss in this case is marked at 139.423 level.
AUDJPY SUSTAINS BREAKOUT FROM THE INVERTED HEAD & SHOULDERS PATTERN, BUY CALL
AUDJPY had been forming an Inverted Head & Shoulders pattern since 21st July 2019. The prices had pierced the neckline and have managed to sustain a breakout in a weekly. Further, the movement of the OsMA oscillator in the green territory suggesting an upward price action. Thereby, the traders can take a long position with a 1st target price of 84.55 level, equal to the Right Shoulder. If the prices breach the 1st TP then the pair could extend its upward journey towards the 2nd target price of 93.05 level, equal to the head of the pattern. Simultaneously, the stop loss can be placed at 73.061 level.
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Rehana William |Financial Consultant _Forex_Gold Xauusd| Fund Manager 