#Gold, #silver & #Indices (#DAX,#SP500,#NASDAQ100) Weekly Forecast: 20-24 May 2024

Fundamental Analysis & Market Sentiment

1. Long of the S&P 500 Index following a daily close above 5265. This set up at close on Wednesday and produced a loss of 0.02%.
2. Long of Gold following a daily close above $2400. This did not set up until the end of the week.
3. Long of Silver following a daily close above $29.00. This set up on Wednesday and produced a win of 6.16%.

The overall result was a net win of 6.14%, resulting in a win of 2.05% per asset.

Last week’s key takeaway was the strong resumption of risk-on sentiment due to lower-than-expected US CPI (inflation), which fell from 3.5% annualized to 3.4% as expected. The dovish surprise was in the monthly increase, which was only 0.3% and not the 0.4% which was expected.

It is worth noting that markets were beginning to become weakly risk-on earlier in the week before this data release, which suggests an underlying bullishness in stock markets, perhaps driven by stronger than expected corporate earnings in the USA seen over recent weeks. Anyway, the lower US inflation data sent major indices rising to new highs. This is not only happening in the USA, but also to several major global equity indices. The MSCI World Index reached a new record high last week.

There were two other highly important US data releases last week. PPI came in notably higher than expected, with markets expecting a monthly increase of 0.3% but getting 0.5%. This stoked fears on Tuesday that the CPI data the following data would be high, which turned out not to be true. Retail Sales data showed no increase at all over the past month, which boosted the effect of the lower CPI data in raising the chance of an earlier rate hike.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, about 68% expect the first rate cut to happen at the Fed’s September meeting.

Other important data releases last week were:

1. US Empire State Manufacturing Index – about as expected.
2. US Unemployment Claims – about as expected.
3. Australia Wage Price Index – just a fraction lower than expected, which is very slightly dovish for inflation and rates.
4. New Zealand Inflation Expectations – fell from 2.50% to 2.33%, which is dovish.
5. UK Claimant Count Change – slightly better than expected.
6. Australia Unemployment Rate – rose unexpectedly from 4.1% to 3.9% which may be slightly dovish for inflation and rates.

Gold

The price of Gold rose strongly last week, printing a bullish candlestick which closed near its high. It is worth noting that the price did not make a new high, although the weekly close was a record high.

Overall, we see bullish signs, but the price is not trading in “blue sky”. Note also that Silver outperformed Gold last week and has looked more bullish than Gold for a while longer than that.

Another bullish factor for Gold is the strength in major stock markets, many of which are rising to new record highs. Gold, contrary to widespread belief, is positively correlated with stock markets.

I think Gold looks like a buy right now, although more conservative traders might want to see a New York close above the record high at $2431 before entering.

Silver

The price of Silver rose very strongly last week, printing the largest bullish candlestick seen in years. The candlestick closed very near the high of its range, which is a bullish sign. There is no doubt there is strong bullish momentum here, but over the long and short term.

Silver is trading in blue sky now at a new 11-year high price, well above the major round number at $30.

Another bullish factor for Silver is the strength in major stock markets, many of which are rising to new record highs. Gold, contrary to widespread belief, is positively correlated with stock markets.

I think Silver looks like a strong buy immediately.

S&P 500 Index

After making a fairly deep bearish retracement in April following new all-time highs, the S&P 500 Index rose again last week to again break into new record territory.

There is a small upper wick, but the key things to note are that the weekly close was above the previous record high, and that the wick is nothing out of the ordinary.

It makes sense to be bullish on this major stock market index when it is rising firmly to make new record highs. Historic precedent shows this tends to produce further gains quickly.

It is worth noting that this index is outperforming the NASDAQ 100 Index, suggesting a broad market rally driven by higher than expected earnings outside the tech sector.

I see the S&P 500 Index as a buy.

NASDAQ 100 Index

After making a fairly deep bearish retracement in April following new all-time highs, the NASDAQ 100 Index rose again last week to again break into new record territory.

There is a small upper wick, but the key things to note are that the weekly close was above the previous record high, and that the wick is nothing out of the ordinary.

It makes sense to be bullish on this major stock market index when it is rising firmly to make new record highs. Historic precedent shows this tends to produce further gains quickly.

However, it is worth noting that this index is underperforming the broader S&P 500 Index, suggesting that the performance here could be relatively weak as it is more of a wide market rally than a tech-driven one.

I therefore see the NASDAQ 100 Index as a buy, but only after a daily close above the record high at 18613.

DAX

The German index initially tried to rally during the week but gave back gains as we continue to see a little bit of noise in general. That being said, Friday did show a significant amount of support, and I think this suggest that there are plenty of buyers underneath, so you certainly want to follow the trend, meaning that you want to be a buyer overall. I have no interest in shorting the DAX and do believe that we eventually get to the €20,000 level over the longer term. Buying on the dips is my favorite strategy here.

Bottom Line

I see the best trading opportunities this week as follows:

1. Long of the S&P 500 Index.
2. Long of the NASDAQ 100 Index following a daily close above 18613.
3. Long of Gold.
4. Long of Silver.

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Gold (#XAUUSD) Forecast: Struggles at Resistance Barrier (17 May 2024)

• Gold has pulled back from the crucial $2,400 level during trading on Thursday, which is an area that has been important multiple times.
• With that being said, I think we are just simply entering some type of consolidation area more than anything else.
• The $2,400 level above continues to be an area that I’ll be paying close attention to, and therefore, if we can break above there on a daily close, then I’m interested in getting long.

If we pull back from here, then the market could drop all the way down to the $2,300 level, which of course is a major support level based on the previous action. And now that the 50 day EMA is racing towards that level, it makes a lot of sense that traders will continue to look at that as a short term flaw in general, and I think this is a market that remains bullish. But you could make an argument for an attempt at least to form a little bit of a double top. A lot of this will come down to interest rates, especially in the United States. So, we’ll see how that goes. If interest rates start to really spike, that could work against gold.

Plenty of Buyers Overall

But at the same time, we do have central banks around the world buying gold. Hand over fist. Let’s not forget all of those massive geopolitical issues that are still out there waiting to cause headaches. So, with that being said, I don’t have any interest in shorting gold, at least not at the moment.

At this point in time, I look at a pullback as more likely than not going to be a buying opportunity in general. This is a market that I think continues to be very volatile, but that’s not really that new for gold, and as such, traders should be cautious about getting “too big” in this market. This is a positive market overall, but at this point, it is obvious that a certain amount of discretion is necessary when putting money to work, instead of just piling into this market.

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MARKET UPDATE: #Saudi #Arabia Wholesale #Inflation Ticks Down (15 May 2024)

The annual wholesale price inflation in Saudi Arabia edged down to 3.4% in April 2024 from 3.8% in the previous month.

Prices slowed for other transportable goods except metal products, machinery & equipment (8.1% vs 9.2% in March), while remained unchanged for food products, beverages, and tobacco & textiles (2.4% vs 2.4%) and agriculture & fishery products (0.2% vs 0.2%).

Additionally, costs dropped for metal products, machinery & equipment (-0.6% vs -0.7%) and ores & minerals (-2.2% vs -2.2%). On a monthly basis, wholesale prices decreased by 0.4% in April, after a 0.4% rise in March.

Saudi Arabia Wholesale Inflation Advances in March

The annual wholesale price inflation in Saudi Arabia advanced 3.8% in March 2024, up from 3.1% rise in the previous month, driven by a faster increase in the prices of other transportable goods except metal products, machinery & equipment (9.2% vs 7.5% in February).

At the same time, costs continued to rise for food products, beverages, and tobacco & textiles (2.4% vs 2%). In contrast, prices slowed for agriculture & fishery products (0.2% vs 0.6%), while declined further for ores & minerals (-2.2% vs -2%) and metal products, machinery & equipment (-0.7% vs -0.6%). On a monthly basis, wholesale prices rose 0.4% in March, rebounding from a 1.2% fall in the prior month

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Weekly #Forex Forecast –#USDJPY,#Gold,#Silver,#SP500 Index,#CAC,#USDMXN (13-17 May 2024)

Fundamental Analysis & Market Sentiment

Last week’s key takeaway was the souring of risk-on sentiment due to expectations in the USA of higher inflationary pressure over the short-term as well as US Consumer Sentiment data which came in at a six-month low. This souring did not come until the end of the week, and it is unclear how negative it is, as most assets over the entire week showed a risk-on rally.

It is unclear what sentiment will be like as the new week gets underway. It is likely that markets will be so fixated on the upcoming US CPI data release that nothing much will happen in the market before that.

The two major data releases last week were policy meetings at two central banks: the Bank of England and the Reserve Bank of Australia. Both central banks kept their interest rates unchanged, but the Bank of England vote was a little more dovish than expected. The RBA stated that inflation risk remains to the upside but that on balance they considered another rate holding to be the correct action. However, both banks effectively indicated a rate hike was out of the question.

Other important data releases were:

1. US 30-Year Bond Auction – this produced a slightly lower yield, which should be slightly bullish for risk.
2. UK GDP – this came in notably better than expected, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4% instead of the expected 0.1% increase.
3. US Unemployment Claims – this was slightly worse than expected.
4. Canadian Unemployment Rate – this was better than expected, with the unemployment rate remaining unchanged at 6.1% due t the creation of more net new jobs than was expected.

The Week Ahead: 13th – 17th May

The most important item over this coming week will be the release of US CPI (inflation) data on Wednesday. Apart from that, there are several other important releases scheduled, listed in order of likely importance:

1. US PPI
2. US Retail Sales
3. US Empire State Manufacturing Index
4. US Unemployment Claims
5. Australia Wage Price Index
6. New Zealand Inflation Expectations
7. UK Claimant Count Change
8. Australia Unemployment Rate

Monthly Forecast May 2024

Weekly Forecast 12th May 2024

Last week, I forecasted that the Japanese Yen would decline against the Euro, Pound, New Zealand Dollar, Swiss Franc, Canadian Dollar, and Australian Dollar. All of these were excellent winning trades, giving a large overall gain of 10.45%, as outlined earlier.

Directional volatility in the Forex market decreased last week, with 27% of the most important currency pairs fluctuating by more than 1% last week.

Last week, the Australian Dollar showed relative strength, and the Japanese Yen showed relative weakness.

Key Support/Resistance Levels for Popular Pairs

Technical Analysis

US Dollar Index

The US Dollar Index printed a small inside candlestick last week which closed slightly higher with a relatively large upper wick, signifying indecision. The candlestick is close to being a bearish pin bar. There is no true long-term trend here, as the price is above its level from 3 months ago but remains below its price of 6 months ago, making the US Dollar relatively unreliable to trade on a trend basis.

The weekly price chart below shows that the dollar has been swinging but has been in a consolidation pattern for quite a while, and the consolidation seems to be getting stronger and constricting.

However, it is worth noting that there is a confluence of a bearish descending trend line and a key horizontal resistance level at 105.81 which is not far from the current price. If the Us Dollar can get established above that level, it could be a significant bullish breakout. It could happen this week if the release of US CPI (inflation) data is notably higher than expected.

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY currency pair was active this week, as were all the Yen crosses. This is due to volatility remaining within the Japanese Yen after its recent massive price movements, with the volatility goosed by two suspected interventions from the Bank of Japan.

The Yen is weakening everywhere, and so of course it also weakened against the US Dollar. However, several other currencies gained even more against the Yen last week.

Technically we see the bullish momentum starting to evaporate into a consolidation below ¥156.00.

Yen weakness is quite likely to persist over the coming week. Whether this is the best pair to use to be short of the Yen is debatable. However, if the Yen does stay weak, long trades from bounces at support levels in this currency pair are likely to be good trades.

Gold

The price of Gold rose quite firmly last week, printing a bullish engulfing candlestick of good size, although Friday saw Gold give up some of its gains through a short-term topping out. The weekly price chart below shows some upper wick on the weekly candlestick. However, the price closed notably higher, and is not very far from making a record high weekly close, which was last made 4 weeks ago at $2392.

We do not yet have bullish breakout conditions, but long trades do look more likely to succeed than short ones, and there is certainly a long-term bullish trend here.

I think we could see a good point to enter a new long trade if we get either:

• A daily close above $2400, or
• A retracement to any of the support levels above $2290.

Silver

The price of Silver rose quite firmly last week, printing a bullish engulfing candlestick of good size, although Friday saw Silver give up some of its gains. The weekly price chart below shows some upper wick on the weekly candlestick. However, the price closed notably higher, and is not very far from making a record multi-year high weekly close, which was last made 4 weeks ago at $28.69.

We do not yet have bullish breakout conditions, but long trades do look more likely to succeed than short ones, and there is certainly a long-term bullish trend here.

I think we could see a good point to enter a new long trade if we get either:

• A daily close above $29, or
• A retracement to either of the support levels at $27.72 or $27.46, with $27.46 looking especially strong due to its confluence with $27.50.

S&P 500 Index

After major US equity indices dropped quite sharply 4 weeks ago after making new all-time highs, US stock markets have been rising slowly but surely, and last week saw quite good performances, especially here in the broad, benchmark S&P 500 Index. It is worth noting that this Index outperformed the NASDAQ 100 Index, which is unusual in a bear market and suggests that the tech sector currently has some vulnerability.

The weekly price chart below shows a bullish candlestick that closed quite near its high. There was some upper wick, but nothing unduly large for bulls to worry about.

There is clearly a long-term bullish trend coupled with mostly bullish short-term momentum. The issue for bulls here is likely to be that the price is near the recent record highs which could provide resistance and trigger another bearish reversal if reached.

For this reason, I will only consider entering a new long trade here if we see a new record high daily close. I prefer a daily close above 5265 which would be a new record high.

We have seen renewed risk-on sentiment in recent days, which is benefiting stocks and precious metals. Gold and silver are positively correlated with stock market performances historically.

USDMXN :

The US dollar gap lower against the Mexican peso the kickoff the trading week, only to turn around and show signs of strength and fill that gap, only to turn right back around and start selling off. Ultimately, this is a market that I think is doing everything he can to break down below the 16 pesos level, but we have a long way to go. In general, this will be an interesting pair to watch due to the fact that it is an emerging market currency that is extraordinarily important. I think this still remains a market that you are looking to fade rallies in.

CAC

The French index was very positive this week, although it’s worth noting that Friday was little bit of a letdown. The market has struggled at the previous high, but this simply means that we will probably pull back only to find more buyers. Underneath, we have the €7900 level that is likely to offer quite a bit of support. Even if we were to break down below there, I think there’s even more support near the €7600 level as the 50-Week EMA comes into the picture.

Bottom Line

I see the best trading opportunities this week as follows:

1. Long of the S&P 500 Index following a daily close above 5265.
2. Long of Gold following a daily close above $2400.
3. Long of Silver following a daily close above $29.00.

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CrudeOil Weekly Forecast: Values Remain Under Speculative Pressures (13-17 May 2024)

The price of WTI Crude Oil closed the week of trading slightly below its starting point last Monday, and trading in the commodity remains under speculative pressure.

• WTI Crude Oil finished the week of trading slight below its starting point last week.
• If a speculator wasn’t participating they might simply look at the price of the commodity as having performed a very comfortable value line, but that isn’t the story.
• The price of WTI Crude Oil began last week with normal choppy values but fell to a low of nearly 76.680 on early Wednesday.
• Then the price of the commodity started to climb and by Thursday was flirting with a high around 79.420.

The price of WTI Crude Oil remained within the upper levels of its short-term range going into Friday, which then created a high around the 79.520 mark. However, after hitting the apex which retouched marks from the 2nd of May, WTI Crude Oil began to selloff going into the weekend. The strong selling as Friday concluded showed that large players were feeling comfortable with fundamentals which show adequate supply and a lack of hyperbole from the Middle East.

Back to Square One as WTI Crude Oil Opens this Week

Essentially WTI Crude Oil appears set to open Monday’s trading within vicinities it began last week’s trading. From a technical perspective the ability to turn lower as the weekend approached is significant and if the commodity opens tomorrow with a tranquil price range, this might indicate lower realms could still be demonstrated. Last week’s lows touched values last seen on the 11th of March. The 76.000 level appears to be important support for WTI Crude Oil.

If WTI Crude Oil continues to sell and falls below the 77.000 mark, traders will have their eyes on last week’s low. If the 76.600 support level is able to be penetrated lower it will open the door to technical consideration via prices that were seen from December into February. Lower prices may seem like wishful thinking for the public and speculators, but if supply and demand remain consistent with the levels being demonstrated currently a bit more selling to slightly lower depths is not out of the question.

WTI Crude Oil and Fair Market Value and Global Economic Intrigue

Global economies do seem to be improving slightly via economic data from Europe and China but very slowly, this as they seem to show signs of potentially stumbling out of recessionary pressures. But the U.S economy appears to actually be growing weaker and if this decline continues it will open the door to less demand for WTI Crude Oil.

• Support near the 77.000 level should be watched early this week; if it is penetrated another push towards lows seen last week will likely become the target.
• Having produced a selloff going into last weekend is intriguing, WTI Crude Oil should be watched early this week to see if momentum continues, but if there is a reversal higher on early Monday this may indicate some large players believe the commodity is slightly oversold.

WTI Crude Oil Weekly Outlook:

Speculative price range for WTI Crude Oil is 75.10 to 80.20

The trajectory of WTI Crude Oil has been lower since tracing above the 87.000 price in first and second week of April. The inability last week to seriously challenge the 80.000 value is another sign that technically traders may be comfortable with the current price range. Last week’s push higher from Wednesday into early Friday are a reminder that WTI Crude Oil can move higher and day traders wagering on the commodity need to be careful.

If political saber rattling from the Middle East can remain within calm decimal levels and not scare large traders of WTI Crude Oil, it is likely the commodity will remain within a rather polite price range. The 76.000 to 79.000 levels seem like a potential playing ground in the coming days. If the commodity is able to open with selling following last week’s soft close, there is a reason to suspect some additional selling may demonstrated. The technical range of WTI Crude Oil appears to be rather firm going into this week.

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USDMXN Forecast: #US #Dollar Continues to Fight Against the #Mexican Peso (9 May 2024)

• The US dollar has rallied a bit against the Mexican peso during the early hours on Wednesday, as we continue to see a lot of volatility overall.
• Keep in mind that the interest rate differential actually favors Mexico in this equation, and that’s part of why we had seen such a strong downtrend for so long.

That being said, we are in between the 50-day EMA and the 200-day EMA indicators, and that, of course, is an area you normally see a lot of volatility in. This is mainly due to a lot of technical traders placing trades in one direction or the other. More importantly, we’re around the 17 pesos level, which has a certain amount of psychology attached to it, and then you also have to keep in mind that there’s probably options barriers in that neighborhood as well.

Risk Appetite Continues to Matter

Because of this, I think we’ll have to pay close attention to how things play out because there is a risk appetite component in the USD/MXN pair. Keep in mind, people generally run to the US dollar in times of trouble and away from emerging market currencies regardless of the interest rate that you get paid. Beyond that, Mexico is highly levered to the US economy as it is now the number one exporter to the United States.

And obviously there’s a major influence on Mexican corporations and factories, et cetera, depending on what’s coming out of the U.S. With all of that being said, it does look like there is a large amount of clustering above that could cause some issues. And therefore, I think it’s going to be difficult to rally from here significantly. However, if we were to rally above 17.30 pesos then you have to think that perhaps the trend change is in the cards. It could be a difficult move, but it’s worth noting that if we do rally at this point in time, it could lead to not only the Mexican peso struggling, but also quite a few emerging markets as well.

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