After testing lows early yesterday the USD/SGD has climbed slightly higher, this as financial institutions seemingly take on more risk appetite but wait for more impetus.
The USD/SGD is trading near the 1.34770 mark as of this writing which continues to display some bearish sentiment over the past few weeks.
However, after touching a low around the 1.34410 ratio yesterday, the currency pair has climbed higher.
While financial institutions have shifted towards a weaker U.S Federal Reserve outlook, the trend of the USD/SGD is not a one way street downwards.
This morning’s early reversals higher show that a range is still being fought over and the values of the USD/SGD are now entrenched technically in the middle of its three month price range. It is clear that plenty of speculative technical support remains around the 1.34500 to 1.34400 levels which may cause gyrations when challenged over the near-term.
Lack of Big U.S Data Early this Week for the USD/SGD
The U.S will not post much in the way of earth shattering economic data early this week. On Thursday there will be Purchasing Managers Index numbers via the Manufacturing and Services sectors, but it is likely the USD/SGD will continue to be influenced by existing sentiment which has taken on a more optimistic tone regarding inflation. Last week’s CPI numbers from the U.S caused a real selloff in the USD/SGD and the low around 1.34200 tested values last seen on the 21st of March.
The question for traders of the USD/SGD will be focused on existing sentiment. The notion that the USD/SGD has been banging up against support the past handful of days is interesting, but perhaps the more solid clue for technical traders is resistance. If the 1.34800 to 1.34900 levels prove durable this could provide traders with an opportunity to look for some downturns. Unless there is a surprising development today and tomorrow, risk of upwards momentum suddenly becoming strong looks diminished.
Aiming for Realistic Targets in the USD/SGD
While risk appetite has increased in the global markets and the USD has become weaker, yesterday’s low and reversal higher serves as a reminder that ranges remain dominant. Becoming overly ambitious regarding trends is dangerous for short-term day traders. The lows seen last Wednesday may prove to be a low water mark for the USD/SGD until there is more impetus delivered for Forex.
And for the USD to grow weaker and extend its decline, inflation reports will have to show signs of more erosion.
On Friday the U.S will see the University of Michigan Inflation Expectations report; this could provide some power for traders.
But if the number is higher than expected, the USD/SGD could suddenly see some buying power emerge.
Until later this week the USD/SGD is likely to remain within its known range.
Singapore Dollar Short Term Outlook:
Current Resistance: 1.34780
Current Support: 1.34675
High Target: 1.34920
Low Target: 1.34510
To get LIVE ACCURATE 2-3 TRADES daily (Forex/Comex/Stocks) Telegram Financial Advisor
The annual wholesale price inflation in Saudi Arabia edged down to 3.4% in April 2024 from 3.8% in the previous month.
Prices slowed for other transportable goods except metal products, machinery & equipment (8.1% vs 9.2% in March), while remained unchanged for food products, beverages, and tobacco & textiles (2.4% vs 2.4%) and agriculture & fishery products (0.2% vs 0.2%).
Additionally, costs dropped for metal products, machinery & equipment (-0.6% vs -0.7%) and ores & minerals (-2.2% vs -2.2%). On a monthly basis, wholesale prices decreased by 0.4% in April, after a 0.4% rise in March.
Saudi Arabia Wholesale Inflation Advances in March
The annual wholesale price inflation in Saudi Arabia advanced 3.8% in March 2024, up from 3.1% rise in the previous month, driven by a faster increase in the prices of other transportable goods except metal products, machinery & equipment (9.2% vs 7.5% in February).
At the same time, costs continued to rise for food products, beverages, and tobacco & textiles (2.4% vs 2%). In contrast, prices slowed for agriculture & fishery products (0.2% vs 0.6%), while declined further for ores & minerals (-2.2% vs -2%) and metal products, machinery & equipment (-0.7% vs -0.6%). On a monthly basis, wholesale prices rose 0.4% in March, rebounding from a 1.2% fall in the prior month
To get LIVE ACCURATE 2-3 TRADES daily (Forex/Comex/Stocks) Telegram Financial Advisor
Last week’s key takeaway was the souring of risk-on sentiment due to expectations in the USA of higher inflationary pressure over the short-term as well as US Consumer Sentiment data which came in at a six-month low. This souring did not come until the end of the week, and it is unclear how negative it is, as most assets over the entire week showed a risk-on rally.
It is unclear what sentiment will be like as the new week gets underway. It is likely that markets will be so fixated on the upcoming US CPI data release that nothing much will happen in the market before that.
The two major data releases last week were policy meetings at two central banks: the Bank of England and the Reserve Bank of Australia. Both central banks kept their interest rates unchanged, but the Bank of England vote was a little more dovish than expected. The RBA stated that inflation risk remains to the upside but that on balance they considered another rate holding to be the correct action. However, both banks effectively indicated a rate hike was out of the question.
Other important data releases were:
US 30-Year Bond Auction – this produced a slightly lower yield, which should be slightly bullish for risk.
UK GDP – this came in notably better than expected, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4% instead of the expected 0.1% increase.
US Unemployment Claims – this was slightly worse than expected.
Canadian Unemployment Rate – this was better than expected, with the unemployment rate remaining unchanged at 6.1% due t the creation of more net new jobs than was expected.
The Week Ahead: 13th – 17th May
The most important item over this coming week will be the release of US CPI (inflation) data on Wednesday. Apart from that, there are several other important releases scheduled, listed in order of likely importance:
US PPI
US Retail Sales
US Empire State Manufacturing Index
US Unemployment Claims
Australia Wage Price Index
New Zealand Inflation Expectations
UK Claimant Count Change
Australia Unemployment Rate
Monthly Forecast May 2024
Weekly Forecast 12th May 2024
Last week, I forecasted that the Japanese Yen would decline against the Euro, Pound, New Zealand Dollar, Swiss Franc, Canadian Dollar, and Australian Dollar. All of these were excellent winning trades, giving a large overall gain of 10.45%, as outlined earlier.
Directional volatility in the Forex market decreased last week, with 27% of the most important currency pairs fluctuating by more than 1% last week.
Last week, the Australian Dollar showed relative strength, and the Japanese Yen showed relative weakness.
Key Support/Resistance Levels for Popular Pairs
Technical Analysis
US Dollar Index
The US Dollar Index printed a small inside candlestick last week which closed slightly higher with a relatively large upper wick, signifying indecision. The candlestick is close to being a bearish pin bar. There is no true long-term trend here, as the price is above its level from 3 months ago but remains below its price of 6 months ago, making the US Dollar relatively unreliable to trade on a trend basis.
The weekly price chart below shows that the dollar has been swinging but has been in a consolidation pattern for quite a while, and the consolidation seems to be getting stronger and constricting.
However, it is worth noting that there is a confluence of a bearish descending trend line and a key horizontal resistance level at 105.81 which is not far from the current price. If the Us Dollar can get established above that level, it could be a significant bullish breakout. It could happen this week if the release of US CPI (inflation) data is notably higher than expected.
USD/JPY
The USD/JPY currency pair was active this week, as were all the Yen crosses. This is due to volatility remaining within the Japanese Yen after its recent massive price movements, with the volatility goosed by two suspected interventions from the Bank of Japan.
The Yen is weakening everywhere, and so of course it also weakened against the US Dollar. However, several other currencies gained even more against the Yen last week.
Technically we see the bullish momentum starting to evaporate into a consolidation below ¥156.00.
Yen weakness is quite likely to persist over the coming week. Whether this is the best pair to use to be short of the Yen is debatable. However, if the Yen does stay weak, long trades from bounces at support levels in this currency pair are likely to be good trades.
Gold
The price of Gold rose quite firmly last week, printing a bullish engulfing candlestick of good size, although Friday saw Gold give up some of its gains through a short-term topping out. The weekly price chart below shows some upper wick on the weekly candlestick. However, the price closed notably higher, and is not very far from making a record high weekly close, which was last made 4 weeks ago at $2392.
We do not yet have bullish breakout conditions, but long trades do look more likely to succeed than short ones, and there is certainly a long-term bullish trend here.
I think we could see a good point to enter a new long trade if we get either:
A daily close above $2400, or
A retracement to any of the support levels above $2290.
Silver
The price of Silver rose quite firmly last week, printing a bullish engulfing candlestick of good size, although Friday saw Silver give up some of its gains. The weekly price chart below shows some upper wick on the weekly candlestick. However, the price closed notably higher, and is not very far from making a record multi-year high weekly close, which was last made 4 weeks ago at $28.69.
We do not yet have bullish breakout conditions, but long trades do look more likely to succeed than short ones, and there is certainly a long-term bullish trend here.
I think we could see a good point to enter a new long trade if we get either:
A daily close above $29, or
A retracement to either of the support levels at $27.72 or $27.46, with $27.46 looking especially strong due to its confluence with $27.50.
S&P 500 Index
After major US equity indices dropped quite sharply 4 weeks ago after making new all-time highs, US stock markets have been rising slowly but surely, and last week saw quite good performances, especially here in the broad, benchmark S&P 500 Index. It is worth noting that this Index outperformed the NASDAQ 100 Index, which is unusual in a bear market and suggests that the tech sector currently has some vulnerability.
The weekly price chart below shows a bullish candlestick that closed quite near its high. There was some upper wick, but nothing unduly large for bulls to worry about.
There is clearly a long-term bullish trend coupled with mostly bullish short-term momentum. The issue for bulls here is likely to be that the price is near the recent record highs which could provide resistance and trigger another bearish reversal if reached.
For this reason, I will only consider entering a new long trade here if we see a new record high daily close. I prefer a daily close above 5265 which would be a new record high.
We have seen renewed risk-on sentiment in recent days, which is benefiting stocks and precious metals. Gold and silver are positively correlated with stock market performances historically.
USDMXN :
The US dollar gap lower against the Mexican peso the kickoff the trading week, only to turn around and show signs of strength and fill that gap, only to turn right back around and start selling off. Ultimately, this is a market that I think is doing everything he can to break down below the 16 pesos level, but we have a long way to go. In general, this will be an interesting pair to watch due to the fact that it is an emerging market currency that is extraordinarily important. I think this still remains a market that you are looking to fade rallies in.
CAC
The French index was very positive this week, although it’s worth noting that Friday was little bit of a letdown. The market has struggled at the previous high, but this simply means that we will probably pull back only to find more buyers. Underneath, we have the €7900 level that is likely to offer quite a bit of support. Even if we were to break down below there, I think there’s even more support near the €7600 level as the 50-Week EMA comes into the picture.
Bottom Line
I see the best trading opportunities this week as follows:
Long of the S&P 500 Index following a daily close above 5265.
Long of Gold following a daily close above $2400.
Long of Silver following a daily close above $29.00.
To get LIVE ACCURATE 2-3 TRADES daily (Forex/Comex/Stocks) Telegram Financial Advisor
BTC/USD Forex Signal: Bitcoin Recovery Hits a Key Resistance
Bearish view
Sell the BTC/USD pair and set a take-profit at 60,000.
Add a stop-loss at 67,200.
Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bullish view
Set a buy-stop at 65,000 and a take-profit at 68,000.
Add a stop-loss at 61,000.
Bitcoin pulled back in the overnight session as the recent recovery faded. The BTC/USD pair has struggled to move above the crucial resistance level at 67,238 as investors watch macro factors and its on-chain metrics.
Post-halving calm continues
Bitcoin is in a state it has not been at in the past few months. It initially jumped sharply ahead of the spot Bitcoin ETF approval, which happened in January. These ETFs have lived to their hype after they have led to over $60 billion in inflows.
After the ETF approval, Bitcoin continued rallying in anticipation of the halving event, which reduces the block rewards offered to miners. Historically, Bitcoin has always done well before halving.
Now, the coin has moved into a no man’s land since there is no major catalyst that will push it higher. As such, traders will continue to watch its on-chain metrics and the performance of the spot ETFs.
They are also focusing on other external factors like corporate earnings, geopolitics, and the next actions of the Federal Reserve.
That explains why the next two days will be important for the price of Bitcoin since the US will release important economic numbers. The Bureau of Economic Analysis will release the first quarter GDP estimate that is expected to show that the economy expanded by 2.5%.
After this, the US will release the personal consumption expenditure (PCE) inflation report on Friday. This is an important number since it is the Fed’s favorite inflation number. Economists expect the figure to show that the headline and core PCE figure rose to 2.6% in March.
A stronger PCE figure will point to a hawkish Federal Reserve. As such, the bank could signal that it will hike rates again later this year. It could also hint that the current restrictive policy will continue. Bitcoin tends to underperform when the Fed is hawkish.
BTC/USD technical analysis
Bitcoin price has been in a slow bullish trend in the past few days but struggled to move above the crucial resistance point at $67,238. It has now slipped and crossed the crucial 50-period moving average.
The BTC/USD pair has pointed downwards while the Bull Bear Power indicator has moved below the neutral level. The pair has also moved below the descending trendline that connects the highest swings since March 14th.
Therefore, the pair will likely continue falling, with the next point to watch being the psychological point at 60,000.
EUR/USD Forex Signal: Chart Pattern Points to a Bearish Breakout
Bearish view
Sell the EUR/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.0650.
Add a stop-loss at 1.0755.
Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bullish view
Buy the EUR/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.0755.
Add a stop-loss at 1.0650.
The EUR/USD pair wavered on Thursday morning ahead of the crucial US GDP and inflation numbers. It also moved sideways after the strong economic numbers from Germany and the United States. The pair was trading at 1.0695, a few pips below this week’s high of 1.0712.
US GDP and inflation data
There are signs that the European economy is doing well. A report published on Tuesday revealed that business output rose to the highest point in months. The composite PMI rose to 51.4, which was higher than the median estimate of 50.8.
A separate report published on Wednesday revealed that the current assessment of the German economy rose from 88.1 in March to 88.9 in April. Business expectations rose to 89.9 while the business climate index rose to 89.4.
These numbers mean that the European economy is doing relatively well since inflation is also coming down. If the trend continues, the European Central Bank (ECB) will start cutting interest rates as soon as June this year.
The EUR/USD also moved sideways after the US released encouraging durable goods order numbers. A report showed that orders rose from 0.7% in February to 2.6% in March, higher than the expected 2.5%. Core durable orders rose from 0.1% to 0.2%.
The next important numbers that could impact the Federal Reserve will be the upcoming US GDP and Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) data.
The expectation is that the economy expanded in Q1, helped by consumer and government spending. Most analysts expect that the economy grew by 2.5% in Q1 after growing by 3.4% in Q4.
They also believe that Friday’s PCE report will be the most important one before the Fed makes its monetary policy decision next week. A higher-than-expected figure will push the Fed to deliver a hawkish statement, signaling that it may not cut rates this year.
EUR/USD technical analysis
The EUR/USD pair remained in a tight range ahead of the crucial GDP and PCE numbers. It was trading at 1.0695 on Thursday morning. It has moved slightly above the 50-period moving average and is sitting at its lowest swing on February 14th.
Most importantly, the pair has formed a bearish flag pattern, which is characterized by a long vertical line and an ascending rectangle. In most cases, this pattern is usually a sign of a continuation.
Therefore, the outlook for the pair is bearish, with the next point to watch being at 1.0650, the lower side of the flag pattern.
AUD/USD Forex Signal: More Upside Ahead of US PCE Data
Bullish view
Buy the AUD/USD pair and set a take-profit at 0.6555.
Add a stop-loss at 0.6450.
Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bearish view
Set a sell-stop at 0.6480 and a take-profit at 0.6400.
Add a stop-loss at 0.6550.
The AUD/USD pair retreated slightly as traders refocused on the upcoming US GDP and PCE economic numbers. The pair dropped from this week’s high of 0.6530 to a low of 0.6490.
US GDP and PCE data
The Australian dollar rallied and then pulled back after Australia published strong consumer inflation data. According to the statistics agency, the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) retreated from 4.1% in Q4’23 to 3.6%, which was higher than the median estimate of 3.4%.
The CPI rose from 0.6% to 1.0% on a QoQ basis. This figure was also higher than the expected 0.8%. The trimmed mean CPI rose by 4.0% while the weighted mean CPI rose to 4.4%.
These numbers mean that the country’s inflation remained higher than what the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) was expecting. They also mean that the country’s prices are not falling faster than expected.
Therefore, the RBA will likely maintain a hawkish sentiment in its upcoming meeting in May. Some analysts see the bank signaling that hikes will be possible if inflation remains this high.
Worse, there is an expectation that Australia, like the United States, will go through a period of reflation as energy prices rise.
Looking ahead, the remainder of the week will be important for the AUD/USD pair as the US will publish two important economic numbers. On Thursday, it will release the first estimate of the US GDP numbers.
Economists expect the data to show that the economy expanded by 2.5% in the first quarter after growing by 3.4% in Q1. That will mean that the economy has expanded by 2% for seven straight quarters.
The US will then release the PCE report, which is the Fed’s favorite inflation number. Economists expect the data to reveal that the headline PCE rose from 2.5% in February to 2.6% in March. The core PCE is expected to come in at 2.6%, higher than the Fed’s target of 2.0%.
AUD/USD technical analysis
The AUD/USD pair peaked at 0.6530 after the strong Australian inflation report and then pulled back to 0.6482. That was a crucial price since it was along the 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement level. It was also at the lowest swing on April 1st, meaning that it has formed a break and retest pattern.
The pair has moved above the 50-period Arnaud Legoux Moving Average (ALMA) while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has moved from the overbought level of 75 to 62. Also, it has formed a small inverse head and shoulders pattern.
Therefore, the outlook for the pair is extremely bullish, with the next point to watch being the 38.2% retracement point at 0.6555.
To get ACCURATE LIVE ACCURATE 2-3 TRADES (Forex/Comex/Stocks) Telegram Financial Advisor
kindly ping me for profitable trades and Account Management Services telegram: Financial Advisor
WE CAN SHOW YOU DETAILED STATEMENTS OF OUR CLIENTS ACCOUNTS FOR YOUR SATISFACTION. SEE OUR CLIENTS PERFORMANCE IN THE BELOW VIDEO AND PING ME FAST FOR YOUR ACCOUNT’S HELP.
To get ACCURATE LIVE ACCURATE 2-3 TRADES (Forex/Comex/Stocks) Telegram Financial Advisor
The AUD is the strongest and the EUR is the weakest as the North American session begins. The USD is mixed to lower as the commodity currencies (risk on) attract the majority of the flows from traders. The RBA kept rates unchanged (and QE unchanged as well) as expected but buying from risk on sentiment has been dominant. The USD is higher mostly vs the EUR to start the session (+0.27%).
The strongest to weakest of the major currencies
Stocks are up strongly in Europe and the US. Yesterday the Dow led the way with a gain of 1.87%. That index is up again today, but is being matched/surpassed by a surge in the Nasdaq which is up 285 points today (implied by the futures at least).
US yields are up modestly in early trading.
Gold and silver are up modestly. Oil is back above $71.50 as it recovers on less omicron fears despite the rising case count. The expectations are that the variant will have more mild symptoms.
Canada ($2.2B) and US trade (-$66.9B) data will be released at 8:30 AM ET, with the revised 3Q Non farm productivity data (-4.9% vs -5.0% previously reported) out of the US. Later at 10 AM ET, the Canada Ivey PMI (est 60.2 vs 59.3 last month)will be released. Finally at 3 PM the US consumer credit data will be released (est $24.9B vs $29.9B last month). The US treasury will auction 3 year notes at 1 PM. The auction is the first major note/bond auction this week with 10 years auctioned off on Wednesday, and 30 year bonds auctioned on Thursday.
In other markets:
Spot gold is up $4.30 or 0.25% at $1782.60
Spot silver is up six cents or 0.25% at $22.43
WTI crude oil futures are up a $1.24 or 1.75% $71.23
Bitcoin is trading back over 50,050 at $51016. The high price reached for $51,606 so far today
In the premarket for US stocks, the futures are implying a sharply higher opening
Dow is up 345 points after rising 646.95 point yesterday
S&P index are trading up 59.75 points after yesterday’s 53.24 point rise
NASDAQ index is trading up 282 points after yesterday’s 139.68 point rise
In the European equity markets, the major indices are also sharply higher:
German DAX, +2.08%
France’s CAC, +2.25%
UKs FTSE 100 +1.17%
Spain’s Ibex +0.85%
Italy’s FTSE MIB +1.8%
In the US debt market, the yields are marginally higher after yesterday’s sharp run up saw the 10 and 30 year yield move up close to 10 basis points.
In the European debt market, the benchmark 10 year yields are mixed.
To get ACCURATE LIVE ACCURATE 2-3 TRADES (Forex/Comex/Stocks) Telegram Financial Advisor
Gold futures are trading in a relatively stable performance with a bearish bias as gold moved towards the $1,776 support level before settling around $1,782 as of this writing. According to recent trading, the rebounding stock market and the rise of the US dollar affected the yellow metal. With early data suggesting that the Omicron variant isn’t as serious as many had feared, investors were hitting the “buy” button across the stock market. In the last few weeks of trading, generally, gold prices began to exit a weekly loss of about 0.1%, in addition to its decline since the beginning of the year 2021 to date by more than 6%.
Silver, the sister commodity to gold, is retreating at the start of this week’s trading, as silver futures fell to $22.31 an ounce. The price of white metal fell more than 2% last week, intensifying its decline since the start of the year 2021 to date to nearly 16%. Investors were excited about the news that the worrisome Omicron variant was not as serious as many were initially concerned about. While it appears to be more contagious, it is not more deadly. This led to a massive rally in the financial markets, with major benchmark indices posting notable gains.
Moreover, the possibility of higher interest rates and Fed monetary policy will likely affect gold prices as well.
All eyes will be on US inflation figures on Friday. The market sets an annual inflation rate of 6.7% for the month of November. And if the forecast is accurate, the consensus is that a sharp CPI will support gold prices. Meanwhile, the strength of the dollar is affecting gold prices. The US dollar index (DXY), which measures the performance of the dollar against a basket of six major competing currencies, rose to 96.33, and the rise in the value of the dollar is bad for commodities priced in dollars because it makes them more expensive to buy for foreign investors.
On the other hand, affecting the gold market, US Treasury yields also rose on Monday, with 10-year yields rising to 1.426%. One-year yields rose to 0.264%, while 30-year yields advanced to 1.754%. A higher yield for Treasury bonds is a downward trend for metals because it raises the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion.
Relative to the prices of other metals, copper futures rose to $4.309 a pound. Platinum futures rose to $936.80 an ounce. Palladium futures jumped to $1,848.00 an ounce.
Technical Analysis
Gold is being cautiously stable, waiting for any news or catalyst. The psychological resistance of $1800 will remain crucial for the bulls to control the performance, because it may stimulate buying, and therefore move towards stronger resistance levels, the closest of which are $1819, $1828 and $1845, which are the areas that strengthen the bullish trend. On the downside, the $1775 support will remain the key to more downside momentum. I still prefer buying gold from every descending level, and the most appropriate buying levels are currently $1763, $1750 and $1738. The price of gold may remain subject to the announcement of US inflation figures and developments on the ground regarding the COVID variant.
WTI Crude Oil Forecast: Price Trying to Break 200-Day EMA
At this point though, it looks oversold.
The West Texas IntermediateCrude Oilmarket rallied significantly to reach towards the 200-day EMA. The 200-day EMA attracts a lot of attention, and it is probably worth noting that the market had stopped there during the previous session. Crude oil was particularly vulnerable to hedge fund liquidation as it was one of the biggest positions a lot of them owned, so as fear of omicron took hold of market behavior, it was almost like a feedback loop. At this point, the market is likely to continue seeing plenty of value hunters though, especially as we are testing multiple areas of support.
The first thing that catches my attention is that we had formed a massive hammer at the $65 level, which also happened to be where the uptrend line crossed. During the Friday session, we tried to recapture a lot of the momentum, but failed at the 200-day EMA. At the time of writing, it looks like the 200-day EMA could very well be broken, and if we can continue to go higher, perhaps breaking above the $70 level, then I think it will be a rush back into this contract.
After all, it does look as if the omicron variant is not going to be as dangerous as once thought, and perhaps some of the initial overreaction may get worked against. Short-term pullbacks at this point in time will probably continue to find buyers, as this looks like a significant bottoming pattern, especially as people realize that perhaps not much has changed. While OPEC did decide to go ahead and increase production as per schedule, the reality is that if the market continues to reopen, that will almost certainly demand more crude oil. I think that is probably what’s going on here, so every time it pulls back it is very likely to attract not only value hunters, but maybe small positions by myself. I will be adding as we go higher, as it could very well be a bigger move towards the $75 level. The 50-day EMA sits just above there, so would make a certain amount of sense that it could offer a nice target or perhaps even a short-term ceiling. If we break down below the bottom of the hammer from the Thursday session though, that could open up fresh selling in a leg lower. At this point though, it looks oversold.
To get ACCURATE LIVE ACCURATE 2-3 TRADES (Forex/Comex/Stocks) Telegram Financial Advisor
Gold clearly demonstrated a rather turbulent month of results in November and traders should prepare for the potential of additional amusement park-like thrills.
Gold is trading slightly below the 1800.00 juncture, as of this writing as December gets set to start. Speculators who have not been paying much attention may believe that gold has not seen much price action the past four weeks. The precious metal started November near the 1780.00 level and looking at today’s price could be thought as having produced a rather polite gain of only 20.00 USD per ounce. However, this is not the reality because gold traded in an energetic manner, and demonstrated rather turbulent volatility.
On the 3rdof November gold was trading within the 1756.00 vicinity and on the 16thof the month, gold attained a high of nearly 1878.00. After hitting the apex for the month of November, gold slumped and fell to a low of nearly 1777.00 on the 24th. And since then news about the new variant of coronavirus has flourished and has put safe haven investors on high alert without causing any pandemonium as of yet. A high of 1815.00 was seen on the 26th of November, but the price of the commodity has reversed lower since then. Will volatility strike again soon?
Technical and fundamental traders are all likely feeling rather perplexed via the results of gold the past four weeks. The highs made in November tested values not seen since June of this year, while the lows reflected support levels which have been largely acting as a buffer since August with the occasional outlier taking place regarding value. Gold did hit 1720.00 on the 19th of September, and witnessed a flash crash in the second week of August due to an imbalance in the market when a large speculative position caused the price of the precious metal to spike lower momentarily and hit a mark of nearly 1680.00. Cryptocurrency traders aren’t the only ones who get to deal with massive price movements.
Gold Outlook for December
Speculative price range for Gold is 1747.00 to 1869.00.
The question is where gold will go from here.Technically and fundamentally the precious metal should be watched carefully. If the 1800.00 mark continues to see trading below this juncture, but is able to sustain support near the 1790.00 to 1775.00 ratios without breaking substantially lower, this may prove to be a solid area to buy gold and look for upside price action.
Traders are cautioned to use a conservative amount of leverage and make sure their stop loss orders are working. If gold punctures the 1773.00 level it could signal an additional wave of selling, which may test the 1765.00 mark. If this were to take place gold may prove to be massively oversold mid-term.
However short term trading and long term endeavors are completely different prospects. Gold as a long term hold, if it can be bought below the 1775.00 level, looks to be a rather intriguing position. However short term traders need to cope with the prospect of carrying charges, so six month and one year outlooks are not appropriate in most cases.
Gold did show that buyers remain active and the ability of the commodity to climb to nearly 1880.00 in the middle of November is a solid reminder of this fact.Gold will certainly remain volatile, but if a speculator is bullish and wants to buy gold below the 1800.00 level and look for short bursts higher challenging the 1805.00 to 1815.00 ratios, they cannot be blamed. Cautious gold traders may want to wait for another test of lows that flirt with nearby support levels. Gold has the potential from a risk reward scenario to deliver more upside action compared to the possibility of moving downwards violently.
To get ACCURATE LIVE ACCURATE 2-3 TRADES (Forex/Comex/Stocks) Telegram Financial Advisor
Rehana William |Financial Consultant _Forex_Gold Xauusd| Fund Manager 