USDCAD Analysis: Bearish Move Lower as Speculative Wagers Increase (15 May 2024)

The USD/CAD has continued to move lower since last week when the currency pair was traversing near the 1.37625 ratio on the 8th of May.

• As of this morning’s trading the USD/CAD is showing that financial institutions are leaning into their weaker USD centric positions.
• The gradual downturn in the USD/CAD the past week has now put the currency pair near interesting mid-term support levels.
• The USD/CAD is near the 1.36340 ratio as of this writing, the currency pair challenged these lows on Friday of last week and yesterday too.

Although the U.S printed a stronger than expected Producer Price Index yesterday, financial institutions continue to show a desire to maintain their bearish positions in the USD/CAD. Support levels should be watched carefully; on the 3rd of May the currency pair did approach 1.36050 before producing a buying surge.

USD/CAD and Today’s U.S Consumer Sentiment Report Data

While the USD/CAD is technically intriguing because it is bouncing up against rather strong support levels in the short-term, today’s CPI numbers from the U.S will deliver a definite impetus into Forex and volatility should be expected. The stronger than expected inflation numbers yesterday in the U.S did not dampen the enthusiasm of bearish traders who seem to be once again taking on the perspective the U.S Federal Reserve will need to cut its interest rate at some point.

However, if the Consumer Price Index numbers come in with a stronger than anticipated outcome today in the U.S, this could provide an additional shockwave into Forex. Perspective will certainly get tested later today depending on the readings from the U.S inflation reports. Traders with open positions in the USD/CAD before the CPI release should be extraordinarily careful regarding their risk taking tactics.

Reactions and Speculation to Come in the USD/CAD

If the U.S produces weaker than expected inflation numbers today this would seemingly help traders with a weaker USD centric perspective. Yesterday’s PPI data caused a short-term wicked storm in the USD/CAD and broad Forex market, but within about half an hours volatility subsided and the USD returned to its weaker stances against many major currencies. However, if the CPI statistics today are stronger than expected (on top of yesterday’s outcome) this could rattle the confidence of financial institutions which may need to reconsider their mid-term outlooks regarding the Federal Reserve.

• Traders need to be ready for volatility today and the use of stop loss and take profit orders are urged for speculators without deep pockets.
• Traders should anticipate the price range of the USD/CAD to widen before and after the release of the U.S CPI data.
• The 1.36000 ratio is certainly within the sights and goals of bearish USD/CAD traders, but they will likely need weaker U.S inflation numbers to attain this lower level in a sustained manner.

Canadian Dollar Short Term Outlook:

Current Resistance: 1.36455

Current Support: 1.36310

High Target: 1.36920

Low Target: 1.35970

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USDRUB #forexsignal: The US Dollar Continues Consolidation Against Russian Ruble (14 May 2024)

Potential Signal:

The US dollar is by far the strongest currency around the world right now, at least as far as majors are concerned. I am a buyer of this pair right here, right now. I would have a stop loss near the 89.50 ruble level, with a target closer to the 93.75 ruble level above.

• The US dollar has dropped a bit against the Russian ruble during the trading session on Monday, as we continue to dance around the 91 Ruble level.
• This is an area that is also bordered by the 200-Day EMA in the 50-Day EMA indicators, suggesting that we could see a lot of noise here. With that being said, it is very likely that we will continue to hear a lot of noise in the pair.
• When I look at this chart, I see a couple obvious levels that everyone should be watching.

Major Levels

I believe that the 94 Ruble level is major resistance, while at the same time, the 89 Ruble level underneath is major support. We are to simply killing time at the moment, as we are bouncing around in this area, which does make a certain amount of sense considering that there is so much going on around the Russian economy and the Russian currency.

It is probably worth noting that the Russian ruble is down 40% from its strongest levels in January 2022, but it does also look like we are going to continue to see a lot of choppy behavior because quite frankly there are a lot of moving pieces at the same time. While Russia is somewhat suffered at the hands of tariffs, the reality is that there is quite a bit of trade between Russia, China, and India when it comes to commodities, and while commodities continue to skyrocket in value, that ends up helping the Russians, assuming that they can sell their products somewhere. (Here’s a little bit of a reality check: Russian oil does get into the European Union, despite the fact that it isn’t supposed to.)

All things being equal, I think the 50-Day EMA underneath should continue to offer quite a bit of support, currently hanging around the 89 ruble level. If we can find buyers on dips, then we could go looking toward the 95 ruble level, but ultimately this is a pair that I think is going to continue to favor the US dollar in general, not necessarily because of anything going on in Russia, the fact that the Federal Reserve is going to stay “tighter for longer” is the primary culprit here.

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USDBRL Forecast: US Dollar Caps suggests Strength Against Real (14 May 2024)

• The US dollar initially fell a bit during the early hours on Monday against the Brazilian real, but ultimately looks as if it is very well supported underneath.
• We have been in an uptrend for some time, and of course with the world on edge when it comes to so many moving parts, I believe at this point in time we are going to have to favor the greenback, despite the fact that the interest rate differential is fairly wide.

In fact, the Brazilian interest rate is 10.75%, much higher than the US interest rate. However, there are a lot of concerns when it comes to global politics right now, and of course the Brazilian economy itself is suffering. As long as that’s going to be the case, it makes more sense that the US dollar rises, if for no other reason than to rush toward safety. Traders are not very strong with the risk appetite at the moment, at least not worldwide, but there are pockets of risk-taking out there. As things stand right now, South America is not part of that.

Technical Analysis

The USD/BRL pair continues to look very bullish, and you can even make an argument that we have formed some kind of really ugly bullish flag recently. The 5.10 level underneath seems to be an area of focus, as it has seen a gap a couple of times in the past in this region. The 50-Day EMA is also sitting near the 5.09 level and is rising so that could offer a significant amount of support. In general, I think this is a market that continues to see buyers and could go looking toward the recent high near the 5.29 BRL level. This is an area that I think would attract a lot of attention, mainly due to the fact that we have the 5.30 BRL level just above, and that of course could offer a certain amount of psychological resistance.

This pair more likely than not will remain “buy on the dips”, as traders continue to flood toward the higher interest rates offered in the United States and the relative safety. Furthermore, the US economy is most certainly performing better than many others right now, so that also has inflows into America.

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Hong Kong 50 Forecast: Likely to Continue Higher (13 May 2024)

• The Hong Kong 50 index is likely to continue going higher after we have seen a very bullish Friday.
• We are currently hanging around the HK$19,000 level, but more importantly, we have broken out of a bullish flag, and it looks like we are going to continue to see upward momentum come into this market.

This plays out quite nicely with other indices around the world as it looks like traders are starting to bet on loose monetary policy to help stocks overall. Keep in mind that the Hong Kong dollar is pegged to the US dollar and is therefore manipulated by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority. In other words, the Hang Seng and the Hong Kong 50 index by extension will quite often follow Federal Reserve policy more than anything else.

Furthermore, it’s probably easier to invest in Hong Kong then it is mainland China for most of you, so this is an index that you want to use as an opportunity to take advantage of China perhaps turning the corner when it comes to economics. Short-term pullbacks at this point in time should end up being a nice buying opportunity, and I believe at this point the HK$18,000 level is going to end up being a massive support level, not only due to previous action, but the fact that the psychology attached to a number like that is something worth watching.

HK$20,000 possible

Looking at the longer-term charts, it makes quite a bit of sense that we would see short-term pullbacks as buying opportunities and therefore I think you have to little look at the potential resistance barriers above as a target going forward. Ultimately, I think this is a market that could go all the way to the HK$20,000 level, which obviously has a lot of psychology itself and therefore people will be paying close attention. However, it’s also worth noting that there are a few other minor levels between here and there so that should continue to be a situation where occasionally get a pullback in which to add more to your position.

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AUDUSD #Forexsignal: Could Retest the Resistance at 0.6650 Soon (9 May 2024)

Bullish view

• Buy the AUD/USD pair and set a take-profit at 0.6650.
• Add a stop-loss at 0.6500.
• Timeline: 1-2 days.

Bearish view

• Sell the AUD/USD pair and set a take-profit at 0.6500.
• Add a stop-loss at 0.6610.

The AUD/USD exchange rate remained under pressure as traders assessed the recent actions by the Federal Reserve and Australia’s central bank. The pair was trading at 0.6580 on Thursday, down from this week’s high of 0.6650.

Fed and RBA decisions

The AUD/USD pair has been in the spotlight after the recent actions by the Federal Reserve and the RBA. In its decision last week, the Fed decided to leave interest rates unchanged between 5.25% and 5.50%. It also hinted that it will cut rates later this year if inflation continues falling.

The Federal Reserve noted that inflation has remained stubbornly high above its 2% target while the economic growth is slowing. Recent data showed that the economy expanded by just 1.6% in Q1, a sharp reversal from Q4’s 3.2%. Economists expect the Fed to start cutting rates in Q4 of this year.

The Reserve Bank of Australia also left interest rates unchanged at 4.35% as it continued focusing on the country’s inflation, which has remained higher than expected. Analysts at several banks expect it to cut rates later this year. On the other hand, some of them believe that it will even hike rates later this year.

There will be no major economic data from Australia and the US on Thursday. The only report to watch from the US will be the initial and continuing jobless claims numbers. Economists polled by Reuters expect the report to reveal that the initial claims rose by 212k last week from the previous 208k.

Continuing claims are expected to come in at 1.79 million, higher than the prior week’s 1.7k. While these are important numbers, their impact on the AUD/USD pair will be limited.

AUD/USD technical analysis

The Australian dollar peaked at 0.6650 last week as the US dollar weakened after April’s nonfarm payrolls (NFP) data. That was a crucial price since it failed to move above that level on March 8th and April 9th. It was also the neckline of the inverse head and shoulders pattern.

It pulled back this week after the RBA interest rate decision and has found a support at 50-period moving average. It is also trading between the 38.2% and 50% Fibonacci Retracement level.

Therefore, the pair will likely bounce back as buyers target last Friday’s high of 0.6650. On the flip side, a drop below the support at 0.6540 will provide more downside.

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USDMXN Analysis: Renewed Trend Lower on Speculative Bearish Trading (6 May 2024)

The USD/MXN has fought once again below the 17.00000 price level and Friday’s price action produced depths not seen since the middle of April.

• As of this writing the USD/MXN is trading near the 16.94820 ratio as the currency pair has been able to sustain momentum below the 17.00000 level.
• Sentiment in global Forex has produced a weaker USD recently and financial institutions reacted to Friday weaker than anticipated U.S jobs numbers with more selling pressure.
• The USD/MXN touched a low around 16.83000 on Friday in the midst of strong selling momentum.

While the lower depth was not able to be maintained, the reversal higher has been polite and the broad Forex market has also sustained a weaker USD centric stance today. Bearish momentum in the USD/MXN has been a solid factor over the long-term and the move above the 17.0000 which touched a high of around the 17.52000 mark (excluding the temporary spike caused by Middle East conflict concerns which touched the 18.16000 ratio) on the 19th of April has once again seen value turn lower.

USD/MXN and Support Levels as Sentiment Shifts

Bearish traders of the USD/MXN will certainly have their eyes on lower depths for the currency pair. On the 9th of April the USD/MXN traded around the 16.26250 level. Forex has been volatile over the past four months and this may continue still. However, recent U.S data may have started to create a shift once again in behavioral sentient regarding economic outlook and what the Federal Reserve will be able to do moving forward.

While inflation remains troubling in the U.S, last week’s weaker than expected earnings numbers may make financial institutions lean towards a weaker USD outlook. Now that the 17.00000 level in the USD/MXN has been proven vulnerable again and price action has been able to be kept below this mark, bearish traders may believe sentiment can take the USD/MXN back to known levels below.

Short-Term USD/MXN Bets

There will not be a lot of U.S economic data until later this week. Traders should keep their eyes on U.S Treasury yields; if these numbers stay muted through Wednesday and begin to decline it will likely help the USD become weaker.

• If the 16.91000 level is broken lower and sustained in the near term it would likely ignite more selling optimism for the USD/MXN.
• However traders should keep in mind the rather messy results produced in the broad Forex market the past 4 months full of reversals.
• Momentum lower might be wagered on, but sustainability is still more of a hope at this juncture as the Federal Reserve outlook still remains unclear for the mid-term.

USD/MXN Short Term Outlook:

Current Resistance: 16.95100

Current Support: 16.93010

High Target: 16.97500

Low Target: 16.89200

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