Gold (#XAUUSD) Forecast: Struggles at Resistance Barrier (17 May 2024)

• Gold has pulled back from the crucial $2,400 level during trading on Thursday, which is an area that has been important multiple times.
• With that being said, I think we are just simply entering some type of consolidation area more than anything else.
• The $2,400 level above continues to be an area that I’ll be paying close attention to, and therefore, if we can break above there on a daily close, then I’m interested in getting long.

If we pull back from here, then the market could drop all the way down to the $2,300 level, which of course is a major support level based on the previous action. And now that the 50 day EMA is racing towards that level, it makes a lot of sense that traders will continue to look at that as a short term flaw in general, and I think this is a market that remains bullish. But you could make an argument for an attempt at least to form a little bit of a double top. A lot of this will come down to interest rates, especially in the United States. So, we’ll see how that goes. If interest rates start to really spike, that could work against gold.

Plenty of Buyers Overall

But at the same time, we do have central banks around the world buying gold. Hand over fist. Let’s not forget all of those massive geopolitical issues that are still out there waiting to cause headaches. So, with that being said, I don’t have any interest in shorting gold, at least not at the moment.

At this point in time, I look at a pullback as more likely than not going to be a buying opportunity in general. This is a market that I think continues to be very volatile, but that’s not really that new for gold, and as such, traders should be cautious about getting “too big” in this market. This is a positive market overall, but at this point, it is obvious that a certain amount of discretion is necessary when putting money to work, instead of just piling into this market.

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XAUUSD #Gold Price Analysis Today: Selling Pressure Exposure Despite #Dollar Losses (14 May 2024)

• Gold prices have declined to around $2,332 an ounce as of the start of trading this week.
• This is as investor focus shifts to key US inflation reports due out this week to seek further clues about the Federal Reserve’s monetary direction amid mixed signals from Fed officials.
• The US Producer Price Index is scheduled for release today, Tuesday, followed by the Consumer Price Index tomorrow, Wednesday.
• After the weaker-than-expected US jobs report for April and the disappointing job report last week, expectations for US rate cuts this year have increased.
• Markets expect the Fed to start easing monetary policy in September.

In recent months, gold prices have risen, driven by strong investment demand in the over-the-counter market, continued buying by global central banks, and increased demand from Asia. Escalating tensions in the Middle East also continue to support the safe-haven appeal of gold. In the latest development, Israel deployed tanks into eastern Jabalia in northern Gaza on Sunday after a night of heavy airstrikes and ground fire.

On the front of factors influencing the gold market, the 10-year US Treasury yield started the week’s trading below 4.5% as traders eagerly await the release of key economic data. The focus will be on CPI and PPI data, as well as retail sales and industrial production figures, to gauge inflation and economic strength. In the meantime, investors will be paying close attention to comments from various Fed officials for clues about when the Fed may start cutting rates, particularly Fed Chairman Powell’s appearance at the annual general meeting of the Association of Foreign Banks in Amsterdam today, Tuesday.

Overall, comments made by several policymakers last week indicated that rates would remain high for some time. Furthermore, the odds for Fed easing in September are currently 61% and 74% for November.

Another factor affecting the gold market is that the US dollar index fell to 105 on Monday as investors await key US inflation data this week which could impact Fed monetary policy expectations. Last week, the index ended with modest gains as Fed officials urged caution before cutting rates. In this regard, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said she did not expect it would be appropriate to cut rates in 2024, while Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said it was still too early to think about cutting rates.

Meanwhile, data on Friday pointed to a jump in consumer inflation expectations, although a sharp decline in US consumer confidence added to evidence that the economy is losing momentum. Also, markets are still pricing in September as the start of the easing cycle. Concurrently, investors are now looking to April inflation data to further guide interest rate expectations.

Gold Price Forecast and Analysis Today:

The decline in gold prices is natural, and the overall trend remains upward. The retracement may provide opportunities to buy again, and currently, the nearest support levels for gold are $2318 and $2285 per ounce, respectively. Conversely, on the same time frame, the daily chart below indicates that returning to the resistance area at $2375 is crucial for bullish movement towards the psychological resistance at $2400 per ounce once more. Evidently, gold prices may continue to move within narrow ranges until reacting to US inflation figures and statements from Federal Reserve policymakers led by Jerome Powell.

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Precious Metals Forecast: #Silver Breaks Out,#Gold Consolidates (9 May 2024)

• Silver is outperforming Gold, so traders should be more confident of being long of Silver than of Gold.
• The best new trade opportunity which might set up today will be a long trade in Silver from the $27.50 area.
• Stock markets are mostly holding up, which is probably good news for further rises in Gold and Silver.

Gold (XAU/USD): Technical Analysis

Gold is still established within a long-term bullish trend despite retreating from its record high made just a few weeks ago. Bulls still need caution as the price is not trading in blue sky and is prone to hitting resistance and swinging lower. In fact, it is fair to say that we are seeing a consolidation within an increasingly narrow range, with both nearest support and resistance levels looking likely to produce rejections when tested, giving potential short-term trading opportunities.

A few hours ago, the price made what seems to be a significant bearish reversal at the resistance level at $2321. The price looks quite likely to fall further to $2305 where a long trade could be possible. If any rejection also rejects that round number at $2300 it will likely be even stronger.

Any long trade could easily run out of momentum near $2321 so be conservative with taking profits from any long trade – monitor it carefully.

Key Support Levels:

• $2305
• $2290

Key Resistance Levels:

• $2321
• $2329

Silver (XAG/USD): Technical Analysis

The price chart below shows that Silver is still established within a long-term bullish trend despite retreating from its multi-year high made just a few weeks ago. Recent hours have seen a significant bullish development: a bullish breakout above the resistance level confluent with the major quarter-number at $27.50.

A few hours ago, the price made a bearish reversal at the resistance level at $27.73. However, this does not look technical significant, and I would not be surprised if the price rises again to get established above that level.

A long trade here in Silver could be a great idea if we get a bullish bounce anywhere between $27.50 and $27.46, as this area was formerly well-established resistance so is likely now to act as strong support.

I see Silver as a better potential buy opportunity than Gold right now, but more conservative traders might prefer to wait for a bullish breakout above $27.75 instead of buying on the dip after a bounce near $27.50 or even lower.

Key Support Levels:

• $27.50/46
• $27.00
• $26.84
• $26.62

Key Resistance Levels:

• $27.73
• $28.05

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Precious Metals: Retreating From Resistance After #Bullish Move (7 May 2024)

• Gold and Silver are holding up relatively well despite the generally strong bearish reversals we have recently seen in commodity markets.
• Silver is outperforming Gold, so traders should be more confident of being long of Silver than of Gold.
• Neither precious metal looks like an immediate buy. It will probably be wise to wait for Silver to clear $27.50 or for Gold to clear $2330 before entering any new long trades.
• Stock markets are generally rising again, which is probably good news for further rises in Gold and Silver.

Gold (XAU/USD): Technical Analysis

The price chart below shows that Gold is still established within a long-term bullish trend despite retreating from its record high made just a few weeks ago. Bulls still need caution as the price is not trading in blue sky and is prone to hitting resistance and swinging lower.

A few hours ago, the price made what seems to be a significant bearish reversal at the resistance level just below $2330. The price is currently sitting on the nearest support level at $2315 and looks quite likely to fall to $2308.

Silver is more bullish, but a long trade here in Gold could be a good idea if we get a bullish bounce at $2315, $2308, or even $2290. In the current technical circumstances where the price is not making any bullish breakouts, trading from bounces at support, even after a deep retracement, will likely be the best approach.

Silver (XAG/USD): Technical Analysis

The price chart below shows that Silver is still established within a long-term bullish trend despite retreating from its multi-year high made just a few weeks ago. Bulls still need caution as the price is not trading in blue sky and is prone to hitting resistance and swinging lower.

A few hours ago, the price made what seems to be a significant bearish reversal at the resistance level just below $27.50 which is a major quarter-number. The price is currently sitting on the nearest support level at $27.18 and looks quite likely to reject it, giving a possible long trade entry now.

A long trade here in Silver could be a good idea if we get a bullish bounce at $27.18, $27.00, or even $26.84. In the current technical circumstances where the price is not making any bullish breakouts, trading from bounces at support, even after a deep retracement, will likely be the best approach.

I see Silver as a better potential buy than Gold right now, but more conservative traders might prefer to wait for a bullish breakout above $27.50 instead of buying on the dip after a bounce at a key support level.

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Gold Forecast: Will Upward Pressure Continue? (6 May 2024)

• Gold was all over the place during the trading session on Friday as the jobs numbers came out lower than anticipated.
• Looking at the shorter term charts, the market had initially swung all the way up to the $2,323 level in the $2,275 level and then turned around to basically close in the middle of the day at the middle of the candlestick.
• So, a lot of noise for no particular reason. It is interesting to note that we are right around the $2,300 level and that of course is an area that a lot of people will pay attention to as it is a large round psychologically significant figure.

That being said, if we can take out the top of the candlestick from the Friday session, I suspect that we may continue to see upward pressure. There are plenty of reasons to think that gold may continue to go higher, not the least of which, of course, is geopolitical concerns. Even if we broke down below the bottom of the candlestick for the day, then the 50-day EMA right around the $2,250 level and then eventually the $2,200 level, both could offer a significant amount of support.

External Pressures

Pay attention to interest rates, because if it looks like traders are betting on the Fed cutting rates sooner rather than later, that will also help gold. This is a chart that is very technically sound and despite the fact that we got thrown around quite a bit on Friday, the reality is, this is still a very bullish market.

Because of this, I have no interest whatsoever in trying to get short of the gold market, and most of my energy is focused on trying to find a decent entry point. Over the longer term, I would not be surprised at all to see the gold market go much higher, perhaps even reaching $2,500 given enough time. On the downside, even if we break down below the $2,200 level, I think there are plenty of buyers underneath it might jump into the market in trying to take advantage of “cheap ounces.”

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Gold (#XAUUSD) Analysis: Is Bull Run Over After Worst Daily Decline in 2 Years?

The price actions of Gold (XAU/USD) have shaped the mean reversion decline after a test on the US$2,420 intermediate resistance. It tumbled by -2.7% on Monday, 22 April, its worst daily performance since 13 June 2022 (almost two years), and continued to extend its losses in yesterday’s (23 April) Asian session.

So far, it has recorded an accumulated loss of -5.8% from its recent fresh all-time high of US$2,431 printed on 12 April to yesterday’s intraday low of US$2,291.

Now, the golden question for Gold (XAU/USD); can the bulls be revived or is it game over for its medium-term uptrend that kickstarted in mid-February 2024?

Let’s look at several positive elements that support its current medium-term uptrend phase.

Gold/Copper ratio remains on support within a rising trend channel

The Gold/Copper ratio is defined by dividing the price of gold (XAU/USD) and the price of copper (I used high-grade copper futures denominated in USD). Hence the ratio removes the US dollar exchange rate effect from the equation which in turn solely measures the relative value or outperformance or underperformance of gold against copper.

Copper is considered an industrial commodity; hence its price trends reflect industrial demand and economic activities that stand in contrast with gold, a safe haven hedging asset/commodity with limited industrial usage.

If the ratio of Gold/Copper declines steadily, it suggests that global economic growth is likely in an expansionary mode, and vice versa when the Gold/Copper ratio rises due to a relatively higher demand for gold for hedging purposes due to economic growth slowdown or uncertainties.

The current state of the Gold/Copper ratio has so far remained on support since late November 2023 within a major ascending channel in place since 15 October 2021. Therefore, the current configuration of the ratio suggests that there is still a relatively higher demand for gold as a hedging asset for stagflation risk (see Fig 1).

Given the current economic context where inflationary expectations in the US remain sticky and elevated (above the US Federal Reserve’s 2% inflate target) which in turn puts the Fed in a “boxed up” situation that prevents it from enacting interest rate cuts aggressively. Therefore, fiscal expansionary policies will take over the driver’s seat to stimulate growth which in turn increases the federal budget deficit and may lead to a higher level of 10-year US Treasury yield (a long-term benchmark risk-free rate for pricing of corporate and consumer loans).

Higher costs of long-term funding or capital increase the “crowding out” effects that dampen internal demand which eventually slows down economic growth but not being able to offset sticky inflationary pressure due to persistent supply-side factors (geopolitical tensions & climate change that drive up the prices of oil and agriculture-related commodities).

The 50-day moving average is still acting as a support

Based on a technical analysis standpoint, the price actions of Gold (XAU/USD) are still trading above its 50-day moving average which confluences with a key medium-term pivotal support zone of US$2,260/2,210 that is defined by the former major ascending channel’s upper boundary from 28 September 2022, and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the recent six-month impulsive upmove sequence from 6 October 2023 low to 12 April 2024 high (see Fig 1).

In addition, the daily RSI momentum indicator is still holding above a key parallel support at around the 50 level after its exit from the overbought region which suggests that the medium-term uptrend phase from 14 February 2024 low remains intact.

A clearance above US$2,420 may see the next medium-term resistance coming in at US$2,540. On the flip side, a break below the US$2,210 lower limit of the key medium-term pivotal support zone sees an extension of the ongoing corrective decline within its major uptrend phase to expose the long-term pivotal support zone of US$2,075/2,035 (also the 200-day moving average).

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Is Gold Ready for Bearish Correction?

• Gold dives towards 2,300
• MACD and RSI decline from overbought regions

Gold prices have been underperforming in the past two days, breaking back below the 2,320 and the 20-day simple moving average (SMA).

Momentum indicators are pointing to a negative bias in the short term with the RSI ticking strongly to the downside. The MACD is easing beneath its trigger line losing its positive momentum. Both are confirming that a downside correction may be on the cards.

Further losses could see the 161.8% Fibonacci extension level of the down leg from 2,079 to 1,1810 at 2,245 come into play. A drop below the 50-day SMA, which stands near 2,222 would reinforce the bearish structure in the short term and open the way towards the next key levels of 2,195 and 2,145.

In the event of an upside reversal, the 2,400 round number could act as a barrier before being able to re-challenge the record peak of 2,431.48. A rally above this level could shift the outlook back to positive, hitting the 261.8% Fibonacci extension level of 2,515.

All in all, gold prices are in the process of a potential downside retracement before switching the near-term outlook back to bullish.

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