Gold (#XAUUSD) Forecast: Struggles at Resistance Barrier (17 May 2024)

• Gold has pulled back from the crucial $2,400 level during trading on Thursday, which is an area that has been important multiple times.
• With that being said, I think we are just simply entering some type of consolidation area more than anything else.
• The $2,400 level above continues to be an area that I’ll be paying close attention to, and therefore, if we can break above there on a daily close, then I’m interested in getting long.

If we pull back from here, then the market could drop all the way down to the $2,300 level, which of course is a major support level based on the previous action. And now that the 50 day EMA is racing towards that level, it makes a lot of sense that traders will continue to look at that as a short term flaw in general, and I think this is a market that remains bullish. But you could make an argument for an attempt at least to form a little bit of a double top. A lot of this will come down to interest rates, especially in the United States. So, we’ll see how that goes. If interest rates start to really spike, that could work against gold.

Plenty of Buyers Overall

But at the same time, we do have central banks around the world buying gold. Hand over fist. Let’s not forget all of those massive geopolitical issues that are still out there waiting to cause headaches. So, with that being said, I don’t have any interest in shorting gold, at least not at the moment.

At this point in time, I look at a pullback as more likely than not going to be a buying opportunity in general. This is a market that I think continues to be very volatile, but that’s not really that new for gold, and as such, traders should be cautious about getting “too big” in this market. This is a positive market overall, but at this point, it is obvious that a certain amount of discretion is necessary when putting money to work, instead of just piling into this market.

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Hong Kong 50 Forecast: Likely to Continue Higher (13 May 2024)

• The Hong Kong 50 index is likely to continue going higher after we have seen a very bullish Friday.
• We are currently hanging around the HK$19,000 level, but more importantly, we have broken out of a bullish flag, and it looks like we are going to continue to see upward momentum come into this market.

This plays out quite nicely with other indices around the world as it looks like traders are starting to bet on loose monetary policy to help stocks overall. Keep in mind that the Hong Kong dollar is pegged to the US dollar and is therefore manipulated by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority. In other words, the Hang Seng and the Hong Kong 50 index by extension will quite often follow Federal Reserve policy more than anything else.

Furthermore, it’s probably easier to invest in Hong Kong then it is mainland China for most of you, so this is an index that you want to use as an opportunity to take advantage of China perhaps turning the corner when it comes to economics. Short-term pullbacks at this point in time should end up being a nice buying opportunity, and I believe at this point the HK$18,000 level is going to end up being a massive support level, not only due to previous action, but the fact that the psychology attached to a number like that is something worth watching.

HK$20,000 possible

Looking at the longer-term charts, it makes quite a bit of sense that we would see short-term pullbacks as buying opportunities and therefore I think you have to little look at the potential resistance barriers above as a target going forward. Ultimately, I think this is a market that could go all the way to the HK$20,000 level, which obviously has a lot of psychology itself and therefore people will be paying close attention. However, it’s also worth noting that there are a few other minor levels between here and there so that should continue to be a situation where occasionally get a pullback in which to add more to your position.

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Precious Metals Forecast: #Silver Breaks Out,#Gold Consolidates (9 May 2024)

• Silver is outperforming Gold, so traders should be more confident of being long of Silver than of Gold.
• The best new trade opportunity which might set up today will be a long trade in Silver from the $27.50 area.
• Stock markets are mostly holding up, which is probably good news for further rises in Gold and Silver.

Gold (XAU/USD): Technical Analysis

Gold is still established within a long-term bullish trend despite retreating from its record high made just a few weeks ago. Bulls still need caution as the price is not trading in blue sky and is prone to hitting resistance and swinging lower. In fact, it is fair to say that we are seeing a consolidation within an increasingly narrow range, with both nearest support and resistance levels looking likely to produce rejections when tested, giving potential short-term trading opportunities.

A few hours ago, the price made what seems to be a significant bearish reversal at the resistance level at $2321. The price looks quite likely to fall further to $2305 where a long trade could be possible. If any rejection also rejects that round number at $2300 it will likely be even stronger.

Any long trade could easily run out of momentum near $2321 so be conservative with taking profits from any long trade – monitor it carefully.

Key Support Levels:

• $2305
• $2290

Key Resistance Levels:

• $2321
• $2329

Silver (XAG/USD): Technical Analysis

The price chart below shows that Silver is still established within a long-term bullish trend despite retreating from its multi-year high made just a few weeks ago. Recent hours have seen a significant bullish development: a bullish breakout above the resistance level confluent with the major quarter-number at $27.50.

A few hours ago, the price made a bearish reversal at the resistance level at $27.73. However, this does not look technical significant, and I would not be surprised if the price rises again to get established above that level.

A long trade here in Silver could be a great idea if we get a bullish bounce anywhere between $27.50 and $27.46, as this area was formerly well-established resistance so is likely now to act as strong support.

I see Silver as a better potential buy opportunity than Gold right now, but more conservative traders might prefer to wait for a bullish breakout above $27.75 instead of buying on the dip after a bounce near $27.50 or even lower.

Key Support Levels:

• $27.50/46
• $27.00
• $26.84
• $26.62

Key Resistance Levels:

• $27.73
• $28.05

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Precious Metals: Retreating From Resistance After #Bullish Move (7 May 2024)

• Gold and Silver are holding up relatively well despite the generally strong bearish reversals we have recently seen in commodity markets.
• Silver is outperforming Gold, so traders should be more confident of being long of Silver than of Gold.
• Neither precious metal looks like an immediate buy. It will probably be wise to wait for Silver to clear $27.50 or for Gold to clear $2330 before entering any new long trades.
• Stock markets are generally rising again, which is probably good news for further rises in Gold and Silver.

Gold (XAU/USD): Technical Analysis

The price chart below shows that Gold is still established within a long-term bullish trend despite retreating from its record high made just a few weeks ago. Bulls still need caution as the price is not trading in blue sky and is prone to hitting resistance and swinging lower.

A few hours ago, the price made what seems to be a significant bearish reversal at the resistance level just below $2330. The price is currently sitting on the nearest support level at $2315 and looks quite likely to fall to $2308.

Silver is more bullish, but a long trade here in Gold could be a good idea if we get a bullish bounce at $2315, $2308, or even $2290. In the current technical circumstances where the price is not making any bullish breakouts, trading from bounces at support, even after a deep retracement, will likely be the best approach.

Silver (XAG/USD): Technical Analysis

The price chart below shows that Silver is still established within a long-term bullish trend despite retreating from its multi-year high made just a few weeks ago. Bulls still need caution as the price is not trading in blue sky and is prone to hitting resistance and swinging lower.

A few hours ago, the price made what seems to be a significant bearish reversal at the resistance level just below $27.50 which is a major quarter-number. The price is currently sitting on the nearest support level at $27.18 and looks quite likely to reject it, giving a possible long trade entry now.

A long trade here in Silver could be a good idea if we get a bullish bounce at $27.18, $27.00, or even $26.84. In the current technical circumstances where the price is not making any bullish breakouts, trading from bounces at support, even after a deep retracement, will likely be the best approach.

I see Silver as a better potential buy than Gold right now, but more conservative traders might prefer to wait for a bullish breakout above $27.50 instead of buying on the dip after a bounce at a key support level.

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Gold Forecast: Will Upward Pressure Continue? (6 May 2024)

• Gold was all over the place during the trading session on Friday as the jobs numbers came out lower than anticipated.
• Looking at the shorter term charts, the market had initially swung all the way up to the $2,323 level in the $2,275 level and then turned around to basically close in the middle of the day at the middle of the candlestick.
• So, a lot of noise for no particular reason. It is interesting to note that we are right around the $2,300 level and that of course is an area that a lot of people will pay attention to as it is a large round psychologically significant figure.

That being said, if we can take out the top of the candlestick from the Friday session, I suspect that we may continue to see upward pressure. There are plenty of reasons to think that gold may continue to go higher, not the least of which, of course, is geopolitical concerns. Even if we broke down below the bottom of the candlestick for the day, then the 50-day EMA right around the $2,250 level and then eventually the $2,200 level, both could offer a significant amount of support.

External Pressures

Pay attention to interest rates, because if it looks like traders are betting on the Fed cutting rates sooner rather than later, that will also help gold. This is a chart that is very technically sound and despite the fact that we got thrown around quite a bit on Friday, the reality is, this is still a very bullish market.

Because of this, I have no interest whatsoever in trying to get short of the gold market, and most of my energy is focused on trying to find a decent entry point. Over the longer term, I would not be surprised at all to see the gold market go much higher, perhaps even reaching $2,500 given enough time. On the downside, even if we break down below the $2,200 level, I think there are plenty of buyers underneath it might jump into the market in trying to take advantage of “cheap ounces.”

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WTI #CrudeOil Weekly Forecast: Price Drop Ensues After Support Levels Fade (6-10 May 2024)

The price of WTI Crude Oil went from running into headwinds and lingering within the upper realms of its three month price chart to falling below important support levels rather quickly last week.

• As the price of WTI Crude Oil opens this week it will be near the 77.930 USD ratios, which had last been traded in a meaningful manner on the 13th of March.
• WTI Crude Oil which has been flirting with higher prices and testing resistance on a fairly regular basis a bit over the past month suddenly found selling pressure build.
• When the 82.000 price level was penetrated lower on Tuesday, momentum didn’t slow down and the 81.000 target began to come into sight and by Wednesday this level was brushed aside too.

Wednesday’s trading in WTI Crude Oil saw a fall from slightly above 81.000 to the 79.000 mark emerge. And downside pressure was not finished yet, Thursday and Friday did produce slight reversals higher, but selling continued and the 80.000 price level looked further away as traders began to close their offices for the weekend.

Supply Remains Abundant and WTI Crude Oil is Tranquil

While the media continues in many cases to shine a light on the Middle East conflict, experienced energy traders have proven they are tranquil and are paying attention to fundamentals which show Crude Oil remains abundant and no shortages are present. While peace in our time has not been achieved, developments from the Middle East didn’t stir speculative fires this past week.

The downturn in U.S GDP numbers last week may have also played a role in the ability of WTI Crude Oil to produce a price decline. Large players may be more cautious about pursuing long positions if they feel the U.S economy is about to enter a bona fide downturn.

Production Levels and Looking Ahead Technically

While inventory of WTI Crude Oil remains efficient and supply from the large producers is flowing, some analysts are pointing out that OPEC while conducting its next meetings could make changes to their production in order to combat the faltering prices. However, traders should understand the OPEC meetings aren’t until the 1st of June and until then production levels are not going to be changed dramatically. The question now for WTI Crude Oil is if it will sustain values below 80.000 USD in the coming days.

• Traders with a taste for selling will have to pull out three month technical charts to observe depths last traded in the second week of March.
• While the 77.000 realm below is certainly important, the price of WTI Crude Oil may start to test a choppy range between 77.000 and 79.000 over the near-term.
• The ability to trade lower with rather considerable price velocity last week is newsworthy and speculators should monitor the start of WTI Crude Oil trading this week to gauge existing behavioral sentiment.

WTI Crude Oil Weekly Outlook:

Speculative price range for WTI Crude Oil is 75.200 to 82.600

If the 77.250 mark below starts to get tested and movement sustains lower depths this could set off a rather intriguing speculative battle. Any trading below the 77.000 mark could set off alarm bells and cause technical traders to consider lower values seen via six month charts. Before WTI Crude Oil traders say anything below 75.000 USD is too low, they should remember that the commodity was actually testing values below the 70.000 realm on a fairly consistent basis from mid-December until the start of the second week of January.

The trend lower in WTI Crude Oil which has been produced since the middle of April also coincides with nervousness regarding USD trading apexes and concerns about the U.S economy. Yes, reversals could certainly be seen in WTI Crude Oil, traders cannot bet on a one way direction to unfold. However, resistance above after getting tested in the coming days, may present an opportunity to sell WTI Crude Oil for speculators who manage their risk taking tactics well and believe downside pressure is stronger.

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